id	author	title	date	pages	extension	mime	words	sentences	flesch	summary	cache	txt
work_h4rky7zd25b6niv565xeomvkja	Silvia Milano	Bayesian Beauty	2020	20	.pdf	application/pdf	11347	849	71	bet at the odds that reflect their beliefs in cases like the Sleeping Beauty (Bradley coin toss is Heads), it is indeterminate whether Beauty wakes up on day i. the conditional probability that it is day 1, given that the result of the coin toss is either state space to capture the relevant events in the Sleeping Beauty case. We are now in a position to formally state the problem (which we originally formulated as: What probability should Beauty assign to Heads, given that she wakes up given that the coin toss comes up Heads, is equal to the probability that it is day 1 example, what credence should Beauty assign to the coin toss having come up Heads, 6 To be precise, to model Beauty's beliefs on day 0 we should expand the state space to include a time point order to get Lewis's solution, the conditional probability of day 1 given Heads should	./cache/work_h4rky7zd25b6niv565xeomvkja.pdf	./txt/work_h4rky7zd25b6niv565xeomvkja.txt