id	author	title	date	pages	extension	mime	words	sentences	flesch	summary	cache	txt
work_kpr6df5pwzgu7iii46iuvwruu4	Christopher Hitchcock	Beauty and the Bets	2004	16	.pdf	application/pdf	7434	531	78	Since Beauty knows that the coin is fair, her prior probability for H is 1/2. 1/3 is the correct answer to our puzzle, Beauty's degree of belief at time Before going to sleep, the bookie sells to Beauty bet #1 on H ; What should Beauty's degrees of belief over these centered propositions look like? In order to reflect the evidential relevance of the day for the outcome of the coin toss, Beauty's 'priors' should be such that Mon and H are that upon awakening, Beauty's degree of belief in heads should be 1/2. If the bookie follows this strategy, he can sell a Dutch Book to Beauty By contrast, if upon awakening Beauty's degree of belief in heads is bet sold by the bookie pays $X if the coin lands heads; then Beauty's fair Beauty's degree of belief upon awakening should be 1/3.	./cache/work_kpr6df5pwzgu7iii46iuvwruu4.pdf	./txt/work_kpr6df5pwzgu7iii46iuvwruu4.txt