id	author	title	date	pages	extension	mime	words	sentences	flesch	summary	cache	txt
cord-010933-xuztu95a	Davis, Samuel	Theoretical bounds and approximation of the probability mass function of future hospital bed demand	2018-11-06		.txt	text/plain	5975	271	48	Uncertainty in patient resource demand is caused by several stochastic processes, including the number and timing of arrivals and discharges, length of stay (LOS), unit transfers, health improvement and deterioration, surgical complications, and same-day cancellations for outpatient and surgical appointments. Developing and applying an accurate model to forecast patient resource demand for multiple time periods into the future improves both the cost and safety of providing care when coupled with an adaptive staffing strategy. Most models make simplifying assumptions to manage tractability and fit data availability, including assuming stationary or cyclic demand patterns [16, 17, 36] , exponential-based inter-arrival times and LOS distributions [17, 36, 48, 49] , patient homogeneity [10, 31, 36] , singleday forecasts [47] , and point estimates instead of probability mass functions (PMFs) [14, 31] . The goal of this study is to forecast an accurate approximation for the multi-period PMF of bed demand using the exact surgical schedule at the time of the forecast, non-stationary inter-arrival times, and patient-level duration-varying LOS distributions.	./cache/cord-010933-xuztu95a.txt	./txt/cord-010933-xuztu95a.txt