id	author	title	date	pages	extension	mime	words	sentences	flesch	summary	cache	txt
blog-dshr-org-3922		DSHR's Blog: Talk at PDA2012			.html	text/html	2677	395	88	Last year's talk covered the three possible business models for long-term storage, and focused on endowment as being the only really viable one. The reason endowment is thought to be feasible is Kryder's Law, the 30-year history of exponential increase in disk capacity at roughly constant cost. Similarly, if we assume that in the future storage costs will drop at varying rates, we need to use Monte Carlo techniques with a storage cost model. This shows the relationship between the endowment needed for a 98% probability of not running out of money in 100 years, and the rate of Kryder's Law decrease in cost per byte, which we assume to be constant. The next graph applies the model to cloud storage, assuming an initial cost of 13 cents/GB/yr and interest rates from the last 20 years. The last graph shows the effect on the endowment of a spike that doubles disk prices a number of years into the life of the data.	./cache/blog-dshr-org-3922.html	./txt/blog-dshr-org-3922.txt