8 February 1974, Volume 183, Number 4124 AMERICAN ASSOCIATION FOR THE ADVANCEMENT OF SCIENCE Scienr-e sers es its readers as a forum for the piesent:.tion and discussion of imiportant issues r-elated to the advancement of science, incluLding ,he prescntaition of minority or conflicting points of view, rather than by publishing only milaterial onl 1hich a consensus has been reached. Accord- ingly, all a tidles plUblishcd in Si ieni e-inclUding ditorials, news and comment, and book rcviews -aiec signed and reflect the individual views of the .ilr0th1 a.nd not oflicial points of v,ie%v adopted by ihe AAAS oi het ilStitLItions ws ithr hrich the authors -t e iffiliratedl Editorial Board Al FRLi) BROsWN lAMNES F. CROsW StYN1ouit S. Kits 1AN5K 1'14i SS 1974 FiiNK W. LiUINANI M \XINr. SIN(ILR GORDON vWOLNIAN /975 HI HI- RI S. Uc Iii\ SSKI' I()Ni .i) L iNDSLEY N. BRU(E HANNAY ItUIt I'AIRICK D)uiNA LD Ki:N Ni OSlDsYr ( [IHI. n(ON1I'S(N D)%Nii E-. KosnILAND, JR. Editorial Staff Editor PHILIP H. ABELSON P1iblislier Busiiess Mana,rger \WIL IAsr iIt VASN ANs NUSSIsAUNr .tlagitng E(ditor: IROBERI V. ORMES Assistant Editors: ELLEN E. MURPHY. JOHN E. UINGLI: As.sistart to thle Ei/itor: NANCY [TEiMOURIAN N isa iil C(.oiotient: JOHN WALSH, LUtHER J. CARiIiLR, DLuBoRAsH SHAPLEY, ltOBERI' GILLETTE, NICHO- LAS WADE, CONSTANCE HOLDEN, BARBARA J. CULLITON. SCHELRRAINLE NACK Resear(ih1 Newrs: ALLEN L. ISANIMOND, WILLIAM 1). N1I 1.z Tiis,\is s H. MAUn11 II, JEAN L. NIARX, A\IiHirUR I.R_IWBINSOuN Book Reviiewts: SYLVIA EUELRHARI. KAIHERINE Liv- iNUSi(iN, ANN O'BRILN Cov-er ELiitor: GRA'LCE FINGEiR Elditorial Assistants: MARGARELi ALLEN. ISABELLL BoUloDIN, BLAIR BURNS, ELEANORE Buiz, NIARIt DORF- NMAN, JUDIIIrI GIVELBER, CORRINE HARRIS, NANCN IARIINAGLL, OLIVER HEAI SNVOLE, CHItisriNE KARLIK. GINA BARI KOLAIA, MARGAREI- LLOYD, JEAN ROCK- sNOOD,I,AIRICIA ROWE, LEAH RYAN, LoIs ScHMirs', NIICIIALL SCHWAsRtz, RICHARD SEMIKLOSE, YA Li SWIGARS' Guidle to .Scictntific listruItetits: RICHARD SOMMER M51emriberuslip Recr uitmenrt: GWN ENr)OLYN HUDDLE; Subscriptiioni 1?ecords atidi Meotiber Recotdis: ANN I(AGiAN I) Advertising Staff Director Prodiiction antager EARI J. SCHERAGO MARGAREI- SIERLING Adierti.sing Sales Afaniager: IRICHARD L. CH aRLES Sailes: Ni \N YORK. N.Y. 10036: lherbert L. Burklund, I1 v;. 42 St. (212-PE-6-1858); SCOICH PLAINS, N.J. 07076: C RichaLd Callhs, 12 Unami lIane (201-889- 4873); C CsiO, ILL. 60611: Jack Ryan, Rooi 2107, 919 N. Michigan Ave. (312-DE-7-4973); BEV- LRLY HILLS, CALIF. 90211: Winn Nance, Ill N. La Ciene-ga Blvd. (213-657-2772) EDITORIAL CORRESPONDENCE: 1515 Massa- chulsetts Ave., NW, Washington. D.C. 20005. Phones: (Area code 202) Central Oflice: 467-4350; Book Re- views: 467-4367; Business Oflice: 467-4411; Circula- tion: 467-4417; Guide to Scientific Instr-uments: 467- 4480; News and Comment: 467-4430; Reprints and Permissions: 467-4483; Research News: 467-4321. lReviewing: 467-4440. Cable: Advancesci, Washington Copies of 'Insti uctionls for Contributors" can bc obtained fi-om the editorial oflice. See also page xs, cietlice, 28 Decemiiber 1973. ADVERTISING COR- RESPONDENCE: Room 174(1, 11 W. 42 St., New York. N.Y. 10036. Phone: 212-PE-6-1858. SCI:ENCE No Easy Way Out of Energy Crisis All over the world, peoples and governmnelts have been unlable to responid realistically to the sudden changes in the availability and price of energy. In the United States, a search for scapegoats is being coIn- ducted on the Massumlption that if the culprits can be identified and chastised, thc problem will go away. On the international scenie, the consLminlg nations have been adopting an every-manl-for-himiiself ap- proach that guarantees additional hardship for all. Many stories in the mass media have the commoni thrcad that the crisis was created and is continuing because oil companiies are with- holdinig oil in order to get higher profits. Thus, the solution to our problems is simple: Force the conmpanies to disgorge! Escape from the current travail will not be so easy, nor will it be rapid. There is solid evidence that the mnajor sins of the oil companies are 1not unlderproduc- tion and overstorage today, but an earlier, opposite shortcolmlilng. For decades, oil was generally produced at the maximuml allowable rate. At the samne timie, the industry did not create substantiall storage facilities or invenitories when we were becoming dependent on foreign oil. The American Petroleulll Institute has long compiled weekly data on the produLction, refining, acnd distributioni of oil. The patterns of report- ing were established at a time when there was no incentive to be other than honest. Moreover, the tigures were corroborated by suLrveys of the U.S. Bureau of Mines. These figures showed that U.S. production of crude petroleulm reached its peak in 1970, at 10.0 million barrels per day, and has beeni slowly diminlishinig since. Prior to the present crisis, it had dropped to 9.3 millioin barrels ;,er day; recently production has been 9.1 million barrels per day. In their policies with respect to storage facilities anid inventories, the oil companies have been largely guided by an attempt to hold down costs. It is expensive to mainitain large inventories. So assiduouls have the companies been in this respect that they have endangered the national security. Invenitories of some of the products, such as gasoline, would, if fully available, last about 30 days. However, only a part is available. Some is in pipelines, some is in tankers, and somle is beinig processed. The companies do not have the huge excess storage capacity to hide significant amounts of oil. Recently, there have been tales of speculators' storing gasoline in vacanit filling stations. A typical older filling station has a capacity of 12,000 to 15,000 gallons. Weekly U.S. consumption is 1,750 million gallons. The reported hoardings are little more than drops in the bucket in comparisoni. Others who have searched for an easy way out of the eniergy crisis have pointed to the possibility of a quick end to the Arab oil embargo. This ma.ly or may not come soon, and when it does, it miay or mnay not lead to substantially grea,ter supplies of oil. If production is to be in- creaised rapidly, the increase must come largely from the Arabiani Peninsulal. There, in SauLdi Arabia, Kuwait, and some smaller states, is about hailf the free world's oil. These states, with a total population of less thain 10 nmillion, are enjoying unprecedenited power. With return per barrel having quLadrupled over that of a year ago, they have tar more income than they caln use. KIuwait, with a populationi of 900,000, will receive about $7 billion this year. An increase in productioni wouldl not appear to serve any usefuLl purpose for them. More than a monith has passed since the big price increases were anlloulnced. The lack of conicerted, conistructive responise by the billioiis of people who must pay can only enlcourrage the producin(g counltries to tightenl the screws again and again. Pimiii 1 H. ABEnLSON o n A p ril 5 , 2 0 2 1 h ttp ://scie n ce .scie n ce m a g .o rg / D o w n lo a d e d fro m http://science.sciencemag.org/ No Easy Way Out of Energy Crisis Philip H. Abelson DOI: 10.1126/science.183.4124.475 (4124), 475.183Science ARTICLE TOOLS http://science.sciencemag.org/content/183/4124/475.citation PERMISSIONS http://www.sciencemag.org/help/reprints-and-permissions Terms of ServiceUse of this article is subject to the trademark of AAAS. is a registeredScienceAdvancement of Science, 1200 New York Avenue NW, Washington, DC 20005. The title (print ISSN 0036-8075; online ISSN 1095-9203) is published by the American Association for theScience 1974 by the American Association for the Advancement of Science o n A p ril 5 , 2 0 2 1 h ttp ://scie n ce .scie n ce m a g .o rg / D o w n lo a d e d fro m http://science.sciencemag.org/content/183/4124/475.citation http://www.sciencemag.org/help/reprints-and-permissions http://www.sciencemag.org/about/terms-service http://science.sciencemag.org/