26.10 books MH


remarkable qualities: sailor, cellist, and so on, 
and includes “communist”, without explana-
tion. This is a reprehensible distortion. Monod 
joined the French communist party during the 
war for just one reason, he told me: it was the 
only way he could have any influence on the 
strategy and tactics of the armed resistance, in 
which he then rose to chief of operations for 

all of France. After the war he quietly dropped 
out, until in 1948 he publicly denounced the 
fraudulent claims of Stalin’s geneticist and sci-
ence chief, Trofim Lysenko — and with terrific 
effect. ■
Horace Freeland Judson is at 807 West 
University Parkway, Baltimore, 
Maryland 21210, USA.

Coping with uncertainty
From Cosmos to Chaos: The Science of 
Unpredictability 
by Peter Coles 
Oxford University Press: 2006. 224 pp. 
£25, $44.50

Gianpietro Malescio
If the process through which civilization 
evolved were condensed into a few words, these 
could be: posing questions, finding answers. 
As those with children know well, wondering 
about the world is intrinsic to human nature. 
This attitude is generally lost as we grow up 
(life is a tough business), but a good scien-
tist retains it as an adult. In principle, find-
ing answers is the ultimate goal of a scientist. 
However, scientific answers have a peculiar 
character: they do not represent absolute truth 
acquired once and for all, but only temporary 
beliefs subject to continuous, critical revision. 
Scientific knowledge is anti-dogmatic: it rep-
resents the most reliable conclusion that can be 
drawn on the basis of the available data. There 
are no certainties in the realm of science. This 
may seem profoundly disappointing to the 
general public, but it should not. Science is a 
way of thinking much more than it is a body 
of knowledge. Its true achievement is not pro-
viding answers, but rather a method through 
which answers can be sought.
A basic instrument of this method is rep-
resented by probability theory. As Peter Coles 
brilliantly illustrates in his engaging new book, 
From Cosmos to Chaos, probability theory 
makes it possible to extract meaningful infor-
mation from a sea of noisy data, to deal with 
intrinsically probabilistic processes, and to 
infer conclusions on the basis of incomplete 
information. 
After explaining the basics of probability 
theory, Coles offers a ride across virtually 
the entire spectrum of the physical sciences, 
including thermodynamics, cosmology, 
chaos theory and quantum mechanics, as well 
as stimulating issues such as the anthropic 
principle and life on other worlds. Each topic 
is considered from the specific perspective of 
how it involves, and is related to, the concept 
of probability. Coles also examines the impact 
of probability on many aspects of everyday life. 
He shows us how the decisions of law courts 
and medical tests, as well as more mundane 
activities such as gambling strategies, may 

suffer deeply from an incorrect use of statistics.
To illustrate how probability theory works, 
Coles presents some intriguing and often 
surprising examples, encouraging readers to 
think for themselves and providing them with 
material to entertain and amaze their friends. 
I particularly appreciated the historical notes 
and lively anecdotes that highlight the famous 
and less well-known personalities who con-
tributed to the development of the statistical 

approach to science. Coles points out that most 
of these were astronomers. Historically, men 
of science generally applied their talents to a 
range of disciplines, so most of the people cited 
in the book might also be considered as math-
ematicians and physicists. 
A central chapter of the book is devoted to 
the controversy between the frequentist and 
the bayesian interpretations of probability. The 
former interprets probability as a frequency of 
occurrence in repeated experiments, whereas 
in the latter probability measures the degree 
of belief an individual has in an uncertain 
proposition. As Coles openly declares, one 
of the book’s objectives is to argue in favour 

of the bayesian approach. Pragmatically, the 
two interpretations should be considered 
as complementary, rather than competing. 
Undoubtedly, bayesian inference has profound 
implications as it concerns critical thinking 
and may lead to a deeper understanding of 
the scientific method. However, the ability to 
develop a new hypothesis or theory relies in the 
end on scientists’ creativity, something that can 
hardly be delimited within a methodological 
framework. 
I have a minor observation. Randomness, 
which is intrinsically related to probability, 
deserves a more detailed discussion than is 
given here. In particular, the Monte Carlo 
method is mentioned only briefly, despite its 
importance and wide use in virtually every 
branch of science.
Altogether, the book provides a truly enjoy-
able overview of the role of probability in sci-
ence, as well as in everyday life. It is aimed 
essentially at non-specialist readers, but even 
those who are familiar with its contents will 
enjoy the stimulating presentation. Finally, 

I fully endorse Coles’ passionate plea at the 
end of the book for a better integration of sci-
ence and society. To face challenges such as 
large-scale pollution, the energy crisis or food 
shortages, we will need all the instruments that 
science puts at our disposal. Perhaps an even 
greater threat is represented by fundamental-
isms of any kind (religious, political, economi-
cal) that aim to impose their dogmas on the 
whole of society. Science, or rather, the forma 
mentis it gives us, may offer the best antidote 
for defying them. ■
Gianpietro Malescio is in the Department of 
Physics, University of Messina, 
98166 Messina, Italy.

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	Coping with uncertainty