Challenges for Future Energy Usage Eckhard Rebhan Heinrich-Heine-University Düsseldorf Institute for Theoretical Physics Survey 1. Glance into the history of energy usage 2. Present situation Population growth Shortage of resources Environmental damages and hazards 3. Identification of the biggest energy spenders 4. Boom of renewable energies 5. Promising options 6. Challenges 1. Glance into history of energy usage Energy sources in past times: renewable (plants, animals, wood, charcoal, water, wind) Power and heat from fire and muscles → slavery Unusually benign climate for the last 12 thousand years → cultural evolution Population 12 thousand years ago: a few million in 1700 AD: 600 million Start of industrialization about 300 years ago Start of coal era 1712 coal fired steam engine of Thomas Newcomen (0.5 % efficiency) 1769 steam engine of James Watt (2 % efficiency) Advent of electricity 1866 dynamo of Werner von Siemens → breakthrough of electr. motor 1879 light bulb of Thomas Alva Edison 1882 first electric power station (New York) 1890 first electrically driven subway (London) Start of oil era 1859 first drilling for oil (Edwin L. Drake) 1870 foundation of Standard Oil Company (John Rockefeller) Advent of the automobile 1877 Otto engine (Nikolaus A. Otto) 1886 first automobile with combustion engine (Call Benz) Advent of natural gas 1785 first working gas lamp (Johannes P. Minckeleers) 1812 first gas company (London, Friedrich A. Winzer) 1814 first public gas illumination (London) Broader use of gas started about 50 years ago Advent of nuclear energy 1954 first nuclear power station in Obninsk (Russia) 1956 nuclear power station in Calder Hall (England) 1986 Chernobyl catastrophe population year time difference 0.25 billion 1 1650 0.5 billion 1650 200 1 billion 1850 75 2 billion 1925 40 4 billion 1975 Growth of world population Year world population E/EJ P/W 1 0.25 billion 1.5 190 1650 0.5 billion 10 635 2004 6.4 billion 472 2340 Worldwide energy consumption grew even faster E = total energy consumption per year P = energy consumption per capita per second EJ = exajoule = 10 J, W = watt18 2. Present situation Evolution of world population 2045 about 9 billion, maximum 10 – 11 billion nuclear coal oil gas water non-commercial population energy consumption Energy consumption grew faster than population Daily energy requirement of one person: 2700 kcal corresponding to 130 W permanent power supply (75 W radiated away) Regional differences in power usage per capita Region USA BRD China Africa [W] 10 000 5 100 1 500 385 (170 without South Africa) Running short of energy resources 85 % of energy consumption from fossil combustion Peak oil problem and oil supply Today 0.7 billion automobiles, fuel essentially from oil 2040 1.4 billion automobiles expected Regional differences in annual per capita oil consumption Region USA BRD China India barrels 26 11.7 1.7 0.8 Annual oil production and oil discoveries 1980 reversal point Gb = gigabarrel G Hubbert curve depletion-mid-point Peak oil 1967 in Germany 1971 in USA 2004 worldwide with OPEC and former SU excluded not yet in Iraq, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia Worldwide peak oil expected between 2005 and 2020 Expected consequences: sharp rise in price and energy crisis Peak oil of nations xPresent price Per capita oil production rate per capita peak oil Per consumer oil peak even before 1980 Oil reserves in 2004: 1200 gigabarrels (BP Statist. Rev. of World Energy) Annual production rate: 27 gigabarrels Projected reserve life time : 40 years (22 years taking account of rising demand) Crude oil consists of about 17 000 chemical constituents → pharmaceuticals, solvents, fertilizers, pesticides, paints and coatings, detergents, plastics, ..... What a shame to just burn it! Supply of coal, gas and uranium energy carrier peak of production in reserve life span oil 2005 - 2020 40 y natural gas 2015 - 2035 65 y coal 2020 – 2035 165 y uranium ? 70 – 220 y Environmental problems caused by conventional energy usage ● Pollution, erosion, contamination and flooding of soils ● Pollution and contamination of waters ● Local and global pollution + contamination of atmosphere with consequential damage to fauna and flora ● Environmental burdens through the release of heat ● Local and global climate changes, especially through man made enhancement of greenhouse effect Since 1850 in atmosphere concentration of methane doubled, of CO2 increased by 30 % Temperature and CO2 concentration correlated CO2 in ppm temperature variations in °C Years before today today e Increase of temperature sea level last 100 years 0.7 °C 18.5 cm next 100 years 2 – 6 °C 20 – 90 cm Percentage of the different forms of energy (Germany in 2000) mechanical energy industrial heat room heating light, information + communication 40 % 26 % 31 % 4 % Percentage of end energy consumed by different users (Germany in 2000) traffic homes small-scale consumers industry 30 % 28.5 % 16 % 25.5 % 3. Identification of the biggest energy spenders Percentage of the different kinds of primary energy (worldwide) Oil gas coal hydroelectric nuclear renewables 38 % 23.2 % 25.3 % 6.3 % 6.3 % 0.9 % 1. 2/3 energy losses from source to final usage → energy saving! 2. Energy saving especially important in traffic and heating Traffic: biggest spender, only 20 % end energy finally used (14 % of primary energy) (Other fields: about 50%) More than 50 % of end energy → heat 4. Boom of renewable energies Hydroelectric power ● Water storage power plants ● Damless hydraulic power stations Worldwide 17 %, Germany 4 % electricity production water powered Worldwide big enhancement possible (not in Germany) Wind power Worldwide 1 %, Germany 6 %, Denmark 19 % electricity prod. wind powered Up to 5 mW per turbine Within 15 years wind energy price reduction by factor 2.5, but still subsidized Financial break even expected in 2010 – 2015 1991 first offshore wind farm in Denmark → high potential expected Solar power ● Heating of air in homes and greenhouses ● Heating of water in solar thermal collectors ● Cooking ● Water distillation, desalination and disinfection ● Solar chemical processes Solarthermal applications (non-electric) Solar electricity ● Photovoltaic electricity ● Solar thermal power plants Photovoltaic electricity No direct sunlight needed, very flexible --> from pocket calculator to multi-MW PV-station Cell efficiency 15 %, durability 20 – 40 years Energetic amortisation after 1.5 – 6 years --> PV not completely CO2 free Cost reduction by factor > 2 since 1990, still too expensive (high subsidy) New materials (organic polymers, metal alloys) --> higher efficiency, lower costs Concentrator cells --> large power from small systems Solar thermal power plants Direct sunlight needed --> southern countries High efficiency, energetic amortization after few months Medium subventions, Higher manufactoring numbers --> steep reduction in costs Photovoltaic electricity generation in Germany Bioenergy Energy in 3 tons biomass = energy in 1 ton petroleum Biomass --> production of heat, electricity, liquid fuels and biogas First generation biofuels : not sufficient and sustainable (shugar cane, corn etc.) --> food versus fuel debate Second generation biofuels: sustainable, (non-food crops, waste biomass) financially not yet competitive (subsidy) --> biogas and liquid fuel (sundiesel) Third generation biofuels: algae Geothermal heat (widely neglected) Close to Earth´s surface heat from Sun → heat pumps In deeper layers heat from radioactivity → electric power + industrial process heat Concentrated to areas of geothermal anomaly Appropriate for base load power plants High drilling costs → high financial risks Contribution to worldwide power supply < 1 % High potential: supply of whole mankind for 30 000 years 5. Promising options CO2 sequestration Role of coal will increase, but highest CO2 emissions, exceeding those of oil by factor 1.4 and of gas by factor 1.8 Enhancing efficiency not sufficient: same emissions as gas fired plant of 58 % efficiency requires efficiency of 96 % → CO2 sequestration Energy penalty of sequestration: efficiency reduction by about 10 % CO2 deposition + enhancement of oil recovery → cost reduction Successful example: Sleipner platform (Norway) Nuclear fusion Fuels: Lithium + Deuterium from stones and water First fusion power plant in 50 years → too late for present problems June 2005 decision: ITER will be built in Cadarache (France) Further options ● Pebble bed reactor ● Transmutation ● Combined heat and power production in homes ● Hydropowered fuel cells: for cars? Stationary fuel cells for small scale heat and power production (more promising) 6. Challenges ● Highest priority: reduction of greenhouse gases Hard to achieve → Example of Germany ● Limitation of temperature rise to < 2°C in one century only for cut down of CO2 emissions worldwide by 50 % , in industrialized countries by 80 % until 2050 (IPCC) ● Immediate action required, waiting for climatic damage raises cost by factor up to 20 (Stern report) ● Decoupling of energy consumption from economic growth ● Energy saving by Raising efficiency Streamlined energy usage → energy management Substitution of energy sources and energy consuming devices Sacrificing energy use wherever possible ● Global dimension of energy shortage and environmental hazards → avoid wars! Folie 1 Folie 2 Folie 3 Folie 4 Folie 5 Folie 6 Folie 7 Folie 8 Folie 9 Folie 10 Folie 11 Folie 12 Folie 13 Folie 14 Folie 15 Folie 16 Folie 17 Folie 18 Folie 19 Folie 20 Folie 21 Folie 22 Folie 23 Folie 24 Folie 25 Folie 26 Folie 27 Folie 28 Folie 29 Folie 30 Folie 31 Folie 32 Folie 33 Folie 34 Folie 35 Folie 36