SCIENCE American AssociWon for th Advancement of Scence Science serves its readers as a forum for the presentation and discussion of important issues related to the advance- ment of science, including the presentation of minority or con- flicting points of view, rather than by publishing only material on which a consensus has been reached. Accordingly, all ar- ticles published in Science-including editorials, news and comment, and book reviews-are signed and reflect the indi- vidual views of the authors and not official points of view adopted by the AAAS or the institutions with which the au- thors are affiliated. Publishr: Richard S. Nicholson Editor: Daniel E. Koshland, Jr. New Editor: Ellis Rubinstein Mwnaging Editor: Patricia A. Morgan Deputy Editors: Philip H. Abelson (Engineering and Applied Sciences); John 1. Brauman (Physical Sciences) EDITORIAL STAFF Assistnt Managing Editor: Nancy J. Hartnagel Senior Editor: Eleanore Butz Associat Edtors: Keith W. Brocklehurst, Martha Coleman, R. Brooks Hanson, Barbara Jasny, Katrina L. Kelner, Edith Meyers, Linda J. Miller, Phillip D. Szuromi, David F. Voss Lettes Editor: Christine Gilbert Book Review: Katherine Livingston, editor This Week In Science: Ruth Levy Guyer Contributing Editor: Lawrence 1. Grossman Chief Production Editor: Ellen E. Murphy Editing Department: Lois Schmitt, head; Mary McDaniel, Patricia L. Moe, Barbara E. Patterson Copy Desk: Joi S. Granger, Jane Hurd, MaryBeth Shartle, Beverly Shields Production Manager: Karen Schools Colson Assisbtnt Productin Manager: James Landry Art Director: Yolanda M. Rook Graphics and Production: Holly Bishop, Catherine S. Siskos Covers Edtor: Grayce Finger Manuscript Systens Analyst: William Carter NEWS STAFF Correspondent-at-Large: Barbara J. Culliton Deputy News Editors: Roger Lewin, Colin Norman News and Commen rch News: William Booth, Greg- ory Byrne, Mark H. Crawford, Constance Holden, Richard A. Kerr, Eliot Marshall, Jean L. 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(802-867-5581); Damascus, MD 20872: Rick Sommer, 11318 Kings Valley Dr. (301-972-9270); U.K., Europe: Nick Jones, +44(0647)52918; Telex 42513; FAX (0647) 52053. In maion for contributors appears on page Xl of the 31 March 1989 issue. Editorial correspondence, including requests for permission to reprint and reprint orders, should be sent to 1333 H Street, NW, Washington, DC 20005. Tele- phone: 202-326-6500. AdvwrtIsing crpondence should be sent to Tenth Floor, 1515 Broadway, New York, NY 10036. Telephone 212-730-1050 or WU Telex 968082 SCHERAGO, or FAX 212-382-3725. 2I APRIL I989 VOLUME 244 NUMBER 4902 Progress in Energy R&D O ur present pattem of energy utilization will someday be substantially altered. Impetus for change will arise from our inability to sustain continued increases in oil imports, or to mounting concerns about the greenhouse effect, acid rain, or urban pollution. Four articles in this issue of Science describe progress in developing technologies that may be helpful in responding to the next energy crisis. Hubbard describes dramatic improvements in photovoltaic (PV) technology. Scores of new PV materials and many new designs have been explored. As a result, the cost of PV electricity has dropped from $15 per kilowatt-hour to about $0.30 per kilowatt-hour. To be competitive with future electric generations options, PV modules must exhibit solar energy efficiencies in excess of 15% at costs somewhere between $0.06 and $0.12 per kilowatt- hour. Recent striking improvements in efficiency of conversion of solar energy to electricity and continued improvements in methods of manufacture indicate that this goal may be attained by the mid-1990s. A competitive solar cell industry has emerged, and substantial research is being conducted in a number of countries. Burnett and Ban describe ways in which prospects for natural gas have improved. The energy content of natural gas production in the lower 48 states is already substantially greater than that of oil, and research and development have shown that methane occurs and is recoverable in many places in which oil is not present. Examples include coal seams, shales, and deep formations. A recent U.S. Department ofEnergy reassessment ofthe resource base concluded that technically recoverable natural gas in the lower 48 states is 1059 trillion cubic feet-a greater than 50-year supply at today's usage. Natural gas is a clean fuel that gives rise to much less pollution than either coal or oil. In applications for cogeneration of electricity and heat, thermal efficiencies of 60% to 80% are achieved. The authors describe other new applications that guarantee an increasing role for natural gas in the U.S. energy mix. For example, the use of small amounts ofgas in coal-fired and waste-burning furnaces can lead to substantially decreased emission of pollutants. Improvements in furnaces for home heating have made gas highly competitive with oil or electricity. Ross discusses energy efficiency in industry. He points out that largely in response to the energy shocks of the 1970s, U.S. manufacturers reduced their real fossil fuel intensity ratio of energy use to production by 50%. In the past decade there have been only sporadic improvements, and Ross states that the cost-effective opportunity now available is very large. In addition to potential financial advantages, the technology of efficient energy use is improving rapidly. Manufacturing is being revolutionized by introduction of new sensors coupled with electronic processing of information, followed by automatic control of processes. For example, equipment being installed in steel mills increases yields by controlling thicknesses during the rolling process. Another development in industry is use of electricity in new applications where special advantages are achieved. That is, electric heating processes can achieve extremely high energy densities. In arc plasmas temperatures of 10,000°C are routine. In almost every sector of industry pioneering methods of obtaining increased efficiency and energy savings are being implemented. If an energy crunch comes, these demonstrations will find energy-saving replications. The history of nuclear energy in the United States is a striking illustration of how a great nation can flub a major technological development. Taylor states that the average capacity factor in the United States is about 60% as compared to 75% to 85% in some countries. In addition, U.S. operations and maintenance costs are averaging roughly twice what other countries spend. The U.S. utilities have now set goals to bring their average performance and cost effectiveness to a world competitive level while devoting top priority to safety. Designs of three different reactor systems are moving ahead with five goals in mind: (i) assured safety with features that minimize consequences of human error, (ii) a significantly simpler design, (iii) high reliability throughout a lifetime of on the order of 60 years, (iv) reduction in capital and other costs and a construction time of 3 to 5 years, and (v) a standard design that is predictably licensable.-PHILIP H. ABELSON EDITORIAL 2732I APRIL I989 o n A p ril 5 , 2 0 2 1 h ttp ://scie n ce .scie n ce m a g .o rg / D o w n lo a d e d fro m http://science.sciencemag.org/ Progress in Energy R&D PHILIP H. ABELSON DOI: 10.1126/science.244.4902.273 (4902), 273.244Science ARTICLE TOOLS http://science.sciencemag.org/content/244/4902/273.citation PERMISSIONS http://www.sciencemag.org/help/reprints-and-permissions Terms of ServiceUse of this article is subject to the is a registered trademark of AAAS.ScienceScience, 1200 New York Avenue NW, Washington, DC 20005. The title (print ISSN 0036-8075; online ISSN 1095-9203) is published by the American Association for the Advancement ofScience 1989 by the American Association for the Advancement of Science. o n A p ril 5 , 2 0 2 1 h ttp ://scie n ce .scie n ce m a g .o rg / D o w n lo a d e d fro m http://science.sciencemag.org/content/244/4902/273.citation http://www.sciencemag.org/help/reprints-and-permissions http://www.sciencemag.org/about/terms-service http://science.sciencemag.org/