1012-6-01 [H.A.S.C. No. 110–143] THE STATUS OF THE WAR AND POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS IN IRAQ Y 4.AR 5/2A: 2007-2008/143 COMMITTEE ON ARMED SERVICES HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES ONE HUNDRED TENTH CONGRESS SECOND SESSION HEARING HELD APRIL 9, 2008 UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN LIBRARIES U.S. GOVERNMENT PRINTING ÞFFICE WASHINGTON : 2009 45-256 FEB 2 3 2010 For sale by the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government PrintDEPOSITED BY Internet: bookstore.gpo.gov Phone: toll free (866) 512–180; UNITED STATES OF AMERICA Fax: (202) 512–2104 Mail: Stop IDCC, Washington. Iy HOUSE COMMITTEE ON ARMED SERVICES ONE HUNDRED TENTH CONGRESS IKE SKELTON, Missouri, Chairman JOHN SPRATT, South Carolina DUNCAN HUNTER, California SOLOMON P. ORTIZ, Texas JIM SAXTON, New Jersey GENE TAYLOR, Mississippi JOHN M. MCHUGH, New York NEIL ABERCROMBIE, Hawaii TERRY EVERETT, Alabama SILVESTRE REYES, Texas ROSCOE G. BARTLETT, Maryland VIC SNYDER, Arkansas HOWARD P. "BUCK” MCKEON, California ADAM SMITH, Washington MAC THORNBERRY, Texas LORETTA SANCHEZ, California WALTER B. JONES, North Carolina MIKE MCINTYRE, North Carolina ROBIN HAYES, North Carolina ELLEN O. TAUSCHER, California W. TODD AKIN, Missouri ROBERT A. BRADY, Pennsylvania J. RANDY FORBES, Virginia ROBERT ANDREWS, New Jersey JEFF MILLER, Florida SUSAN A. DAVIS, California JOE WILSON, South Carolina RICK LARSEN, Washington FRANK A. LOBIONDO, New Jersey JIM COOPER, Tennessee TOM COLE, Oklahoma JIM MARSHALL, Georgia ROB BISHOP, Utah MADELEINE Z. BORDALLO, Guam MICHAEL TURNER, Ohio MARK UDALL, Colorado JOHN KLINE, Minnesota DAN BOREN, Oklahoma PHIL GINGREY, Georgia BRAD ELLSWORTH, Indiana MIKE ROGERS, Alabama NANCY BOYDA, Kansas TRENT FRANKS, Arizona PATRICK J. MURPHY, Pennsylvania BILL SHUSTER, Pennsylvania HANK JOHNSON, Georgia THELMA DRAKE, Virginia CAROL SHEA-PORTER, New Hampshire CATHY MCMORRIS RODGERS, Washington JOE COURTNEY, Connecticut K. MICHAEL CONAWAY, Texas DAVID LOEBSACK, Iowa GEOFF DAVIS, Kentucky KIRSTEN E. GILLIBRAND, New York DOUG LAMBORN, Colorado JOE SESTAK, Pennsylvania ROB WITTMAN, Virginia GABRIELLE GIFFORDS, Arizona NIKI TSONGAS, Massachusetts ELIJAH E. CUMMINGS, Maryland KENDRICK B. MEEK, Florida KATHY CASTOR, Florida ERIN C. CONATON, Staff Director MICHAEL CASEY, Professional Staff Member STEPHANIE SANOK, Professional Staff Member CATERINA DUTTO, Staff Assistant (II) THE STATUS OF THE WAR AND POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS IN IRAQ HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES, COMMITTEE ON ARMED SERVICES, Washington, DC, Wednesday, April 9, 2008. The committee met, pursuant to call, at 9 a.m., in room 2118, Rayburn House Office Building, Hon. Ike Skelton (chairman of the committee) presiding. OPENING STATEMENT OF HON. IKE SKELTON, A REPRESENTA- TIVE FROM MISSOURI, CHAIRMAN, COMMITTEE ON ARMED SERVICES The CHAIRMAN. Today the House Armed Services Committee meets in open session for an update on Iraq from two of America's finest, General David Petraeus and Ambassador Ryan Crocker. Gentlemen, we thank you for appearing. I am glad to see you both and believe that our Nation is well served by your leadership. This committee does not forget all the personnel who serve val- iantly under General Petraeus and Ambassador Crocker and who work day and night on our behalf. They and their families have sacrificed tremendously in an effort to carry out a most challenging mission. Where there has been progress, it is due to their efforts, and we thank them. We shall now begin this hearing with recalling how we got here. Iraq was invaded on incorrect information. The turbulent after- math following the initial victory was not considered despite warn- ings of the aftermath, including two such warnings from me. Now we are in our sixth year of attempting to quell this horrendous aftermath. Preparing for this hearing, I went back and read my opening statement for our last hearing with you in September. I think I could have delivered the same statement as I did then, which means I either repeat myself or things haven't changed that much in Iraq. One thing I do think worth repeating here is to remind members and everyone watching the hearing that all of us, everyone, desires to bring the war in Iraq to a close in a way that will best preserve our national security in this country. We must approach Iraq by considering our overall national security. Iraq is clearly an impor- tant piece of that puzzle, but only one piece. Admiral Mullen, the Chairman of Joint Chiefs and General Hay- den, the director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), have both said publicly that the next attack on our homeland will likely come from the Afghanistan-Pakistan border where Osama bin Laden is hiding. Troops in Iraq or those in units recovering from (1) 2 being in Iraq cannot be sent to Afghanistan to apprehend bin Laden. Protecting this Nation from direct attack is job number one, yet our allocation of forces does not match this imperative. Yester- day Senator Warner asked whether our efforts in Iraq are making this Nation safer. When looking at the needs in Afghanistan, the effort in Iraq, however, is important as putting at risk our ability to decisively defeat those most likely to attack us. Iraq is also preventing us from effectively preparing for the next conflict. We have had 12 military contingencies in the last 31 years. Some of them major and most of them unexpected. The Army would face a steep climb in trying to respond to another con- tingency. Readiness for most nondeployed units has fallen to un- precedented levels, and nearly all training is focused on counter- insurgency operations. Those contingencies have come on average about every five years. We are due for another. In my view, we are not doing what we must to prepare. Turning back to Iraq itself , we should all recall that the surge is just the latest in a line of plans, and we are in our sixth year of war in Iraq. We have seen just about everything from Secretary Rumsfeld's denial that there was an insurgency to Ambassador Bremer's throwing fuel on the fire by firing every Baathist and member of the Iraqi army. We tried assaulting Fallujah twice. We tried rushing the Iraqi army into combat only to watch it fail. We tried pretty much everything before we got to trying a coun- terinsurgency doctrine backed by increased forces. That worked tactically. Our forces have helped reduce violence. In my view, we cannot call the surge a strategic success without political reconcili- ation. The objective of the surge was to create the political space for the Iraqis to reconcile. Our troops have created that space, but the Iraqis have yet to step up. There have been some local gains and some legislative accomplishments, but those mostly haven't been implemented, so we don't know if those will really help or not. And a reconciliation based on a sharing of resources, a guarantee of political participation, equal treatment under the law and protec- tion from violence, regardless of sect, simply hasn't happened. The United States has poured billions of dollars into Iraqi recon- struction, and yet our senior military leadership considers an Iraqi commitment of a mere $300 million for the reconstruction as a big deal. This Nation is facing record deficits, and the Iraqis have translated their oil revenues into budget surpluses rather than ef- fective services. Under these circumstances and with a strategic risk to our Nation and our military readiness, we and the Amer- ican people must ask, why should we stay in Iraq in large num- bers? Some of our witnesses want to argue for keeping large numbers in Iraq. I hope you can also explain the next strategy. The counter- insurgency strategy worked tactically, but the surge forces are going home. Political reconciliation hasn't happened, and violence has levelled off and may be creeping back. So how can we encour- age and not force the intransigent political leaders of Iraq to forge a real Nation out of the base sectarian instincts. So what is the new strategy? Last time you were here, General, you spoke of speeding up the Baghdad clock while putting more time on the Washington clock. You have succeeded in putting more 3 time on the Washington clock, but the strategic failure is that the Iraqi politicians don't seem to have picked up a sense of urgency. In my view, that sense of urgency will only come when we take the training wheels off and let the Iraqis begin to stand on their own two feet. While we hold them up, there is no real incentive for them to find their balance. In closing my comments in the September hearing, I quoted Tom Friedman, a journalist, saying that he would be convinced of progress in Iraq by the various sectarian leaders stepping forward, declaring their willingness to work out their differences on a set timeline and asking us to stay until they do. They hadn't done that by last September, and I don't see a lot of change on that front. So, ladies and gentlemen, I now turn to my good friend and rank- ing member, Mr. Duncan Hunter, for any comments that he might have. STATEMENT OF HON. DUNCAN HUNTER, A REPRESENTATIVE FROM CALIFORNIA, RANKING MEMBER, COMMITTEE ON ARMED SERVICES Mr. HUNTER. Thank you, Mr. Chairman, for holding this hearing. And gentlemen, I think when I see this team of leaders together appearing before us as they did last year, I think of the words duty, honor, and country because you represent I think great mod- els for young Americans who would go into public service, either on the State Department side or on the military side. And behind you are lots and lots of family members representing all of the thousands of people in the military and in foreign service, thou- sands of family members who haven't seen their loved ones for a long time. And I know you have endured some big separations, as have your personnel. We want to thank you for your service to this country. You know, Mr. Chairman, it was 15 months ago when the Presi- dent announced the surge. And even a few days after it had been announced, some Members of Congress were declaring failure of this increase in American forces going into the country. And yet I think by all metrics it has been a success. And I am reminded that in Anbar Province where you had by some accounts and by statis- tics the most dangerous of situations, the situation is extremely be- nign. In fact, I have seen Marines coming back in large numbers from Anbar Province without combat action ribbons for a simple reason: they didn't make contact with the enemy because there isn't contact and contention to be had at most parts of that prov- ince now. And generally the violence level has dropped throughout Iraq as a result of the surge operation. Now, you know, we have looked at this initial foray of the Iraqi army undertaken under the leadership of this newly formed Iraqi Government in Basra. And that has been described by some critics as a failure because they didn't complete all the objectives that they undertook. Mr. Chairman, I see it exactly the opposite. I see this as inevi- table and necessary of the engagement on the field of combat by the Iraqi military undertaking their own operations. And as I un- derstand it, and I hope you would elaborate and explain today your evaluation of the performance of the Iraqi army, but only with a 4 few enablers being contributed by the United States, they under- took their own operations, meaning they had to stand on the field of battle. They had to face bullets. They had to utilize their own chain of command, their own logistics capability and their own bat- tlefield effectiveness in this operation. And, General, I remember when we had the first battle of Fallujah and green Iraqi troops were rushed to that battle to par- ticipate with Marines in that operation, and the next day, those troops did not show up. They weren't trained. They didn't have dis- cipline, and they moved out of that battle area very quickly and very abruptly. And today, while we see Iraqi forces which are standing and fighting, which are exercising that chain of command and that logistical capability, and I would hope that today you could give us your unvarnished opinion on the stand up of the Iraqi military, because, in my estimation, a reliable Iraqi military is a key to the United States leaving Iraq in victory. So I would hope that we would have some detail devoted to your evaluation of how they are doing. They have now stood up 134 bat- talions. A number of them have been engaged in some fairly heavy warfare. Others are located in more benign regions of the country and haven't been engaged in extensive operations. But I would hope you could give us today your testimony and your description and your evaluation of how well the Iraqi army is standing up. Also, I hope, General, that you will go into the issue of deser- tions. Í have seen that one figure was that there was four percent desertions in the Basra operations. I would hope you could tell us to what extent those were members of the military police or to what extent those were members of the Iraqi army, so we can get an understanding of, in your estimation, what that is attributable to and what kind of a grade you would give them on that particular operation. Mr. Chairman, there is a lot of dissent as to whether or not the Iraqi Government has utilized this space that has been given to them by the surge operation and this quelling of violence, whether they have utilized that to their best advantage in terms of political reforms that will move this country down the road. I would hope also, Ambassador Crocker, you can give us your best evaluation as to how far down the road they have moved, whether you think they have made reasonable progress, inadequate progress, and what you expect them to do in the future, and the extent of engagement that you think we should undertake to en- sure that they continue to improve. Also, I would hope both gentlemen could comment today on the extent of Iranian participation in the Iraqi situation, and particu- larly, General Petraeus, with respect to Iran's training and equip- ping of the antigovernment forces in Basra, to what extent you think that will now shape the security situation, whether Iran is backing off or going in full force with their special operations and their intel in trying to train and equip and effect the military situa- tion inside Iraq. So if you could touch on that, I think that is very important to us. Šo, Mr. Chairman, I think we have before us today two out- standing leaders who really represent the best in a model of service to this great country. I think they have made enormous advances 8 Related to this effort, I applaud Congress's support for additional intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance assets in the upcom- ing supplemental as Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissnce (ISR) is vital to the success of our operations in Iraq and else- where. As we combat AQI, we must remember that doing so not only reduces a major source of instability in Iraq, it also weakens an organization that al Qaeda senior leaders view as a tool to spread its influence and foment regional instability. Osama bin Laden and Ayman al-Zawahiri have consistently advocated exploit- ing the situation in Iraq, and we have also seen al Qaeda Iraq in- volved in destabilizing activities in the wider Mideast region. Together with the Iraqi Security Forces, we have also focused on the special groups. These elements are funded, trained, armed and directed by Iran's Quds force with help from Lebanese Hezbollah. It was these groups that have launched Iranian rockets and mortar rounds at Iraq's seat of government in the international zone. Iraqi and coalition leaders have repeatedly noted their desire that Iran live up to promises made by President Ahmadinejad and other sen- ior Iranian leaders to stop their support for the special groups. However, nefarious activities by the Quds force have continued, and Iraqi leaders now clearly recognize a threat they pose to Iraq. We should all watch Iranian actions closely in the weeks and months ahead, as they will show the kind of relationship Iran wishes to have with its neighbor and the character of future Ira- nian involvement in Iraq. We have transferred responsibilities to Iraqi forces as their capa- bilities and the conditions on the ground have permitted. Cur- rently, as this chart shows, half of Iraq's 18 provinces are under provisional Iraqi control. Many of these provinces, not just the suc- cessful ones in the Kurdish regional government area, but also a number of southern provinces, have done well. Challenges have emerged in some others, including of course Basra. Nonetheless, this process will continue, and we expect Anbar and Qadisiyah Provinces to transition in the months ahead. Iraqi forces have grown significantly since September, and over 540,000 individuals now serve in the Iraqi Security forces. The number of combat battalions capable of taking the lead in oper- ations, albeit with some coalition support, has grown to well over a hundred. These units are bearing an increasing share of the bur- den as evidenced by the fact that Iraqi force losses have recently been three times our own. We will of course conduct careful after- action reviews with our Iraqi partners in the wake of recent oper- ations, as there were units and leaders found wanting in some cases, and some of our assessments may be downgraded as a re- sult. Nonetheless, the performance of many units was solid, espe- cially once they got their footing and gained a degree of confidence. And certain Iraqi elements proved very capable. Underpinning the advances of the past year have been improve- ments in Iraq's security institutions. An increasingly robust Iraqi- run training base enabled the Iraqi Security Forces to grow by over 133,000 soldiers and police over the past 16 months. And the still expanding training base is expected to generate an additional 73,000 soldiers and police through the rest of 2008. 9 Additionally, Iraq's security ministries are steadily improving their ability to execute their budgets. As this chart shows, in 2007 as in 2006, Iraq security ministries spent more on their forces than the United States provided through the Iraqi Security Forces Fund (ISFF). We anticipate that Iraq will spend over $8 billion on secu- rity this year and $11 billion next year. And this projection enabled us recently to reduce significantly our Iraqi Security Forces Fund request for fiscal year 2009 from $5.1 billion to $2.8 billion. While improved Iraqi Security Forces are not yet ready to defend Iraq or maintain security throughout the country on their own. Re- cent operations in Basra highlight improvements in the ability of the Iraqi Security Forces to deploy substantial numbers of units, supplies and replacements on very short notice. They certainly could not have deployed a division's worth of army and police units on such short notice a year ago. On the other hand, the recent op- erations also underscored the considerable work to be done in the areas of expeditionary logistics, force enablers, staff development and command and control. We also continue to help Iraq through the U.S. Foreign Military Sales Program. As of March 2008, the Iraqi Government has pur- chased over $2 billion worth of equipment and services of American origin through the Foreign Military Sales Program (FMS). Since September, and with your encouragement of the organizations in the FMS process, FMS deliveries have improved. While security has improved in many areas and the Iraqi Secu- rity Forces are shouldering more of the load, the situation in Iraq is exceedingly complex and challenging. Iraq could face a resur- gence of AQI or additional Shi'a groups could violate Sadr's ceasefire order. External actors like Iran could stoke violence with- in Iraq. And actions by other neighbors could undermine the secu- rity situation as well. The Commander's Emergency Response Program (CERP), the State Department's Quick Response Fund, and the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) programs enable us to help Iran deal with these and other challenges. To that end, I respect- fully ask that you provide us, by June, the additional CERP funds requested by the supplemental. Encouragingly, the Iraqi Government recently allocated $300 million for us to manage as Iraqi CERP to perform projects for their people while building their own capacity to do so, recognizing our capacity to help them. The Iraqi Government has also com- mitted $163 million to gradually assume Sons of Iraq contracts; $510 million for small business loans; and $196 million for a joint training education and reintegration program. The Iraqi Govern- ment pledges to provide more as they execute their budget passed two months ago. Nonetheless, it is hugely important to have our resources con- tinue, even as Iraqi funding begins to outstrip ours. Last month I provided my chain of command recommendations for the way ahead in Iraq. During that process I noted the objective of retain- ing and building on our hard-fought security gains while we draw down to the pre-surge level of 15 brigade combat teams. I empha- size the need to continue work with our Iraqi partners to secure the population and to transition responsibilities to the Iraqis as 10 quickly as conditions permit but without jeopardizing the security gains that have been made. As in September, my recommendations are informed by oper- ational and strategic considerations. The operational considerations include recognition that the military surge has achieved progress but that that progress is reversible. Iraqi Security Forces have strengthened their capabilities but still must grow further. The provincial elections in the fall, refugee returns, detainee releases and efforts to resolve provincial boundary disputes will be chal- lenging. The transition of Sons of Iraq will require time and careful monitoring. Withdrawing too many forces too quickly could jeop- ardize the progress of the past year. And performing the necessary tasks in Iraq will require sizable conventional forces as well as Special Operations forces and advisor teams. The strategic consid- erations include recognition that the strain on the U.S. military, es- pecially on its ground forces, has been considerable. A number of the security challenges inside Iraq are also related to significant re- gional and global threats. And a failed state in Iraq would pose se- rious consequences for the greater fight against al Qaeda, for re- gional stability, for the already existing humanitarian crisis in Iraq, and for the effort to counter malign Iranian influence. After weighing these factors, I recommended to my chain of com- mand that we continue the draw down of the surge forces and that upon the withdrawal the last surge brigade combat team in July, we undertake a 45-day period of consolidation and evaluation. At the end of that period, we will assess the conditions on the ground and determine where and when we can make recommendations for further reductions. This process will be continuous with rec- ommendations for further reductions made as conditions permit. The approach does not, to be sure, allow establishment of a set withdrawal timetable. However, it does provide the flexibility those of us on the ground need to preserve the still fragile security gains our troopers have fought so hard and sacrificed so much to achieve. With this approach, the security achievements of 2007 and early 2008 can form a foundation for the gradual establishment of sus- tainable security in Iraq. This is not only important to the 27 million citizens of Iraq, it is also vitally important to those in the Gulf region, to the citizens of the United States and to the global community. It is clearly in our national interest to help Iraq prevent the resurgence of al Qaeda in the heart of the Arab world; to help Iraq resist Iranian encroachment on its sovereignty; to avoid renewed ethno-sectarian violence that could spill over Iraq's borders and make the existing refugee crisis even worse; and to enable Iraq to expand its role in the regional and global economies. In closing, I want to comment briefly on those serving our Nation in Iraq. We have asked a great deal of them and of their families, and they have made enormous sacrifices. My keen personal aware- ness of the strain on them and on the force as a whole has been an important factor in my recommendations. The Congress, the ex- ecutive branch and our fellow citizens have done an enormous amount to support our troopers and their loved ones, and all of us are grateful for that. Nothing means more to those in harm's way than the knowledge that their country appreciates their sacrifices 11 and those of their families. Indeed, all Americans should take great pride in the men and women serving our Nation in Iraq, civilian as well as military, and in the courage, determination, resilience, and initiative they demonstrate each and every day. It remains the greatest of honors to soldier with them. Thank you very much. [The prepared statement of General Petraeus can be found in the Appendix on page 59.] The CHAIRMAN. General, I certainly thank you for your testimony and for being with us today. Ambassador. STATEMENT OF HON. AMBASSADOR RYAN CROCKER, UNITED STATES AMBASSADOR TO IRAQ Ambassador CROCKER. Mr. Chairman, Congressman Hunter, Members of the Committee, it is an honor to appear before you today to provide my assessment of political, economic and diplo- matic developments in Iraq. When General Petraeus and I reported to you in September, I gave my considered judgment as to whether our goals in Iraq were attainable. Can Iraq develop into a united stable country with a democratically elected government operating under the rule of law? Last September, I said that the cumulative trajectory of political, economic and diplomatic developments in Iraq was upwards, al- though the slope of that line was not steep. Developments over the past seven months have strengthened my sense of a positive trend. nmense challenges remain, and progress is uneven and often frus- tratingly slow, but there is progress. Sustaining that progress will require continuing U.S. resolve and commitment. What has been achieved is substantial, but it is also reversible. Five years ago today, the statue of Saddam Hussein was toppled in Baghdad. The euphoria of that moment evaporated long ago. But as Iraq emerges from the shattering violence of 2006 and the early part of 2007, there is reason to sustain that commitment and the enormous investments we have made both in the lives of our young brave men and women and our resources. Let me describe the developments upon which I base such a judg- ment. The first is at the national level in the form of legislation and the development of Iraq's parliament. In September, we were disappointed that Iraq had not yet enacted some key pieces of legis- lation. In the last several months, Iraq's parliament has formu- lated, debated vigorously and, in many cases, passed legislation dealing with vital issues of reconciliation and nation-building. A pension law extended benefits to individuals who had previously been denied them because of their service under the former regime. The accountability and justice law, de-Baathification reform, passed after lengthy and often contentious debate reflecting a strengthened spirit of reconciliation as does a far-reaching amnesty law. The Provincial Powers Law is a major step forward in defining the relationship between the Federal and provincial governments. Passage of this legislation requires debate about the fundamental nature of the state similar in its complexity to our own lengthy and difficult debate over States' rights. The Provincial Powers Law also called for provincial elections by October 1st of this year, and an electoral law is now under discussion that will set the parameters 13 Iraqi decision to combat these groups in Basra has major signifi- cance. First, a Shi'a majority government led by Prime Minister Maliki has demonstrated its commitment to taking on criminals and extremists regardless of sectarian identity. Second, Iraqi Secu- rity Forces led these operations in Basra and in towns and cities throughout the south. British and U.S. elements played important roles, but these were supporting roles, as they should be. The oper- ation in Basra has also shaken up Iraqi politics. The prime min- ister returned to Baghdad from Basra shortly before General Petraeus and I left for Washington, and he is confident in his deci- sion and determined to press the fight against illegal groups but also determined to take a hard look at lessons learned. The efforts of the government against extremist militia elements have broad political support as a statement April 5th by virtually all of Iraq's main political leaders-Sunni, Shi'a and Kurd-made clear. A wild card remains the Sadrist Trend, and whether the Iraqis can con- tinue to drive a wedge between other elements of the trend and Iranian supported Jaysh al-Mahdi special groups. A dangerous de- velopment in the immediate wake of the Basra operation was what appeared to be a reunification between special groups and the main line Jaysh al-Mahdi. We also saw a potential collapse of the Jaysh al-Mahdi freeze in military operations. As the situation unfolded, however, Muqtada al-Sadr issued a statement that disavowed any- one possessing heavy weapons which would include the signature weapons of the special groups. This statement can further sharpen the distinction between members of the Sadrist Trend who should not pose a threat to the Iraqi state and members of the special groups who very much do. One conclusion I draw from these signs of progress is that the strategy that began with the surge is working. This does not mean, however, that U.S. support should be open-ended or that the level and nature of our engagement should not diminish over time. It is in this context that we have begun negotiating a bilateral relation- ship and agreement between Iraq and the United States. In Au- gust, Iraq's five principal leaders requested a long-term relation- ship with the United States to include economic, political, diplo- matic and security cooperation. The heart of this relationship will be a legal framework for the presence of American troops similar to that which exists in nearly 80 countries around the world. The Iraqis view the negotiation of this framework as a strong affirma- tion of Iraqi sovereignty placing Iraq on par with other U.S. allies and removing the stigma of Chapter VII status under the U.N. Charter pursuant to which coalition forces presently operate. Such an agreement is in Iraq's interest and ours. U.S. forces will remain in Iraq beyond December 31, 2008, when the U.N. Resolution pres- ently governing their presence expires. Our troops will need basic authorizations and protections to continue operations, and this agreement will provide those authorizations and protections. The agreement will not establish permanent bases in Iraq, and we anticipate that it will expressly foreswear them. The agreement will not specify troop levels, and it will not tie the hands of the next administration. Our aim is to ensure that the next President arrives in office with a stable foundation upon which to base policy decisions, and that is precisely what this agreement will do. Con- 14 gress will remain fully informed as these negotiations proceed in the coming weeks and months. Mr. Chairman, significant challenges remain in Iraq. A reinvigo- rated cabinet is necessary both for political balance and to improve the delivery of services to Iraq's people. Challenges to the rule of law, especially corruption, are enormous. Disputed internal bound- aries, the Article 140 process, must be resolved. The return of refu- gees and the internally displaced must be managed. The rights of women and minorities must be better protected. Iraqis are aware of the challenges they face and are working on them. Iraq's polit- ical progress will not be linear. Developments which are on the whole positive can still have unanticipated or destabilizing con- sequences. The decision to hold provincial elections, vital for Iraq's democratic development and long-term stability, will also produce new strains. Some of the violence we have seen recently in south- ern Iraq reflects changing dynamics within the Shi'a community as the political insecurity context changes. Such inflection points un- derscore the fragility of the situation in Iraq, but it would be wrong to conclude that any eruption of violence marks the beginning of an inevitable backslide. In terms of economics and capacity building, in September I re- ported to you that there had been some gains in Iraq's economy and in the country's efforts to build capacity to translate these gains into more effective governance and services. Iraqis have built on these gains over the past months, as is most evident in the re- vival of marketplaces across Iraq and the reopening of long-shut- tered businesses. According to a Center for International Private Enterprise poll last month, 78 percent of Iraqi business owners sur- veyed expect the Iraqi economy to grow in the next 2 years. With the improving security and rising government expenditures, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects that Iraq's GDP will grow seven percent in real terms this year, and inflation has been tamed. The dinar remains strong, and the Central Bank has begun to bring down interest rates. Iraq's 2008 budget has allocated $13 billion for reconstruction, and a $5 billion supplemental budget this summer will further invest export revenues in building the infra- structure and providing the services that Iraq so badly needs. This spending also benefits the United States. Iraq recently an- nounced its decision to purchase 40 commercial aircraft from the U.S. at an estimated cost of $5 billion. As Iraq is now earning the financial resources it needs for brick-and-mortar construction through oil production and export, our assistance focus has shifted to capacity development and an emphasis on local and post-kinetic development through our network of provincial reconstruction teams and ministerial advisors. The era of U.S.-funded major infra- structure projects is over. We are seeking to ensure that our assist- ance in partnership with the Iraqis leverages Iraq's own resources. Our 25 Provincial Reconstruction Teams (PRTs) throughout Iraq have been working to improve provincial and local governance ca- pabilities, particularly in budget design and execution. They are also helping to establish critical linkages between provincial and Federal Governments. Our PRTs are great enablers, and we are working to ensure their continued viability as our forces redeploy. The relatively small amounts they disperse through Quick Re- 15 sponse Funds have major impacts in local communities, and con- gressional support is important as it is for other vital programs in the fiscal year 2008 supplemental request. Iraq increasingly is using its own resources to support projects and programs that we have developed. It has committed nearly $200 million in support of a program to provide vocational training for concerned local citi- zens who stood up with us in the awakening. Our technical assistance advisors have helped design new pro- curement procedures for Iraq's oil ministry. We developed the tech- nical specifications from which Iraq's state-owned oil company will build new oil export platforms and underwater pipelines worth over $1 billion. And in Baghdad, in the last three months, the munici- pality has stepped up to take over labor contracts worth $100 mil- lion that we have been covering under the community stabilization program. Like so much else, Iraq's economy is fragile, the gains re- versible and the challenges ahead substantial. Iraq will need to continue to improve governmental capacity, pass national-level hy- drocarbon legislation, improve electrical production and distribu- tion, improve the climate for foreign and domestic investment, cre- ate short- and long-term jobs and tackle the structural and eco- nomic problems of the vital agricultural sector. We will be helping the Iraqis as they take on this challenging agenda along with other international partners, including the United Nations and the World Bank. Along with the security surge last year, we also saw a diplomatic surge focused on enhancing U.N. Engagement in Iraq, anchoring the international compact with Iraq and establishing an expanding neighbors process which serves as a contact group in support of Iraq. The United Nations has taken advantage of an expanded mandate granted to the United Nations Assistance Mission in Iraq, UNAMI, to increase the scope of its activities and the size of its staff. Under dynamic new leadership, UNAMI is playing a key role in preparing for provincial elections and in providing technical as- sistance to resolve disputed internal boundaries. The United Na- tions High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) has returned international status to Iraq to assist with the return of internally displaced persons and refugees. The international compact with Iraq provides a five-year framework for Iraq to reform its economy and achieve economic self-sufficiency in exchange for long overdue Saddam-era debt relief. Preparations are under way for a ministe- rial level compact meeting in Sweden next month; 74 nations were represented at last year's gathering in Egypt. Iraq's neighbors also understand they have a major interest in Iraq's future. Turkey hosted the second ministerial meeting of Iraq's neighbors in November, and Kuwait will host a third meet- ing later this month. In addition to all of Iraq's neighbors, these expanded conferences also include the permanent five members of the Security Council, the Arab League and G-8. Support from Arab capitals has not been strong and must improve for the sake of Iraq and the sake of the region. Bahrain's recent announcement that it will return an ambassador to Baghdad is welcome, and other Arab states should follow suit. Iraq is a multi-ethnic state but it is also a founding member of the Arab League and an integral part of the Arab world. Last 16 month Iraq hosted a meeting of the Arab Parliamentary Union bringing the leaders of Arab parliaments and consultative councils to Iraq for the first major inter-Arab gathering since 1990. It is noteworthy that the meeting was held in the Kurdish city of Irbil, under the recently redesigned Iraqi flag highlighting both the re- markable prosperity and stability of Iraq's Kurdish region and the presence of the Iraqi Federal state. We hope that this event will encourage more active engagements with Iraq, and we expect that Prime Minister Maliki's efforts against Shi'a extremist militias in Basra will also receive Arab support. The presence of the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) terrorist or- ganization in the remote mountains of Iraq along the Turkish bor- der has produced tension between Turkey and Iraq and led to a Turkish cross-border operation in February, including movement of Turkish ground forces into Iraq. At the same time, both govern- ments are working to strengthen their ties, and Iraqi President Talabani made a successful visit to Turkey in March. Syria plays an ambivalent role. We have seen evidence of efforts to interdict some foreign fighters seeking to transit Syria to Iraq, but others continue to cross the border. Syria also harbors individ- uals who finance and support the Iraqi insurgency. Iran continues to undermine the efforts of the Iraqi Government to establish a sta- ble secure state through the army and training of militia elements engaged in violence against Iraqi Security Forces, coalition forces and Iraqi civilians. The extent of Iran's malign influence was dra- matically demonstrated when these militia elements clashed with Iraqi Government forces in Basra and Baghdad. When the Presi- dent announced the surge, he pledged to seek out and destroy Ira- nian-supported lethal networks inside Iraq. We know more about these networks and their Quds Force sponsors than ever before, and we will continue to aggressively uproot and destroy them. At the same time, we support constructive relations between Iran and Iraq and are participating in a tripartite process to discuss the se- curity situation in Iraq. Iran has a choice to make. Mr. Chairman, almost everything about Iraq is hard. It will con- tinue to be hard as Iraqis struggle with the damage and trauma inflicted by 35 years of totalitarian Baathist rule. But hard does not mean hopeless. And the political and economic progress of the past few months is significant. I must underscore, however, that these gains are fragile, and they are reversible. Americans have invested a great deal in Iraq in blood as well as treasure, and they have the right to ask wheth- er this is worth it, whether it is now time to walk away and let the Iraqis fend for themselves. Iraq has the potential to develop into a stable secure multi-ethnic multi-sectarian democracy under the rule of law. Whether it realizes that potential is ultimately up to the Iraqi people. Our support, however, will continue to be crit- ical. I said in September that I cannot guarantee success in Iraq. That is still the case, although I think we are now closer. I do remain convinced that a major departure from our current engagement would bring failure, and we have to be clear with our- selves about what failure could mean. Al Qaeda is in retreat in Iraq, but it is not yet defeated. Al Qaeda's leaders are looking for every opportunity they can to hang on. Osama bin Laden has called 17 Iraq the perfect base, and it reminds us that a fundamental aim of al Qaeda is to establish itself in the Arab world. It almost suc- ceeded in Iraq. We cannot allow it a second chance. And it is not only al Qaeda that would benefit. Iran has said publicly it will fill any vacuum in Iraq, and extremist Shi’a militias would reassert themselves. We saw them try in Basra and Baghdad over the last several weeks. And in all of this, the Iraqi people would suffer on a scale far beyond what we have already seen. Spiraling conflicts could draw in neighbors with devastating consequences for the re- gion and the world. Mr. Chairman, as monumental as the events of the last 5 years have been in Iraq, Iraqis, Americans and the world ultimately will judge us far more on the basis of what will happen than what has happened. In the end, how we leave and what we leave behind will be more important than how we came. Our current course is hard, but it is working. Progress is real, although fragile. We need to stay with it. In the months ahead, we will continue to assist Iraq as it pur- sues further steps toward reconciliation and economic development. Over time this will become increasingly an Iraqi process, as it should be. Our efforts will focus on increasing Iraq's integration re- gionally and internationally, assisting Iraqi institutions locally and nationally to strengthen the political process and promote economic activity and supporting the efforts of the United Nations as Iraq carries out local elections toward the end of the year. These efforts will require an enhanced civilian commitment and continued sup- port from the Congress and the American people. In closing, Mr. Chairman, I want to recognize and thank all those who serve our country in Iraq, both military and civilian. Their courage and their commitment at great sacrifice has earned the admiration of all Americans. They certainly have mine, and it is an honor to serve there with them. Thank you sir. [The prepared statement of Ambassador Crocker can be found in the Appendix on page 78.] The CHAIRMAN. Mr. Ambassador, thank you very much. Mr. Ambassador, in your comments, you said that U.S. support should not been open-ended. I certainly agree with that. You also point out that whether Iraq realizes its potential is ultimately up to the Iraqi people. Is that not correct? Ambassador ČROCKER. That is correct, Mr. Chairman. The CHAIRMAN. You point out in your testimony the need for a reinvigorated cabinet, for political balance; the need for delivery of services to the Iraqi people; the need for the rule of law, the prob- lems of corruption, which are enormous, you say; the disputed in- ternal boundaries, return of refugees, return of internally displaced people; the rights of minority and women all must be protected. All of this is part of what needs to be done in what is being called rec- onciliation. Am I not correct, Mr. Ambassador? Ambassador CROCKER. Yes. That is correct, Mr. Chairman. Mr. CHAIRMAN. The surge in forces and the counterinsurgency doctrine has led to reduced violence. Its purpose was to create po- litical space for the Iraqis to move forward on reconciliation within its government and within its people. 18 Now we know there has been some incremental progress. But there has not been this fundamental reconciliation, the list of which you just gave us. So where do we go from here? We will be returning the surge forces, redeploying them. So what is our strat- egy for the future? What leverage do you have on the Iraqi Govern- ment to take the training wheels off and to get on with its task? We have been at this now for years. How do you do that? General, Mr. Ambassador. General PETRAEUS. First of all, Mr. Chairman, I would point out that they want to do that as much as we do. Indeed, they have put themselves under enormous personal pressure and collective pres- sure of the various political elements in Iraq to increasingly exer- cise their sovereignty. In fact, that is exactly what Prime Minister Maliki did, of course, when he decided as the constitutional com- mander in chief of the armed forces of Iraq to deploy forces on short notice to Basra and then to enter into operations against mi- litia elements down there that were the source of crime and other security challenges. That was not something that we pushed him to do, candidly. That was something that they wanted to do. They feel that pressure themselves. So, again, it is not about us twisting their arm, I don't think, to exercise their sovereignty. It is truly about us enabling that and trying to support it as much as we can while keeping as light a hand on the bicycle seat as possible. There are numerous provinces throughout Iraq in which we have no forces, or virtually no forces, perhaps a Special Forces team or not much more than that. By the way, these were challenged, some of these provinces were chal- lenged during the outbreak of violence that accompanied the start of the Basra operation. In the bulk of those southern provinces, Iraqi forces proved up to the task. The CHAIRMAN. At what point, General, will you recommend re- deployment of additional forces beyond the several brigades that are a part of the so-called surge? General PETRAEUS. As I have laid out, Mr. Chairman, we will be reducing by over one quarter of our ground combat powers. The CHAIRMAN. From what to what, sir? General PETRAEUS. From 20 brigades to 15 brigade combat teams, and also taking out two Marine battalions and the Marine Expeditionary Unit. That is a substantial amount. At the end of that, we think it makes sense to have some time to let the dust settle, perhaps to do some adjustment of forces. The CHAIRMAN. That is my question, General. At what point do we—do you make recommendations to start going into the 15 bri- gades? General PETRAEUS. As the conditions are then met, and we look at the security and local governance conditions that allow us to thin out our forces and thereby to redeploy additional elements. The CHAIRMAN. What will be those conditions? General PETRAEUS. As I said, it is essentially what we have used in the past. We are thinning out very substantially right now. And we had to decide where to do that. We looked at primarily the secu- rity and local governance conditions, the enemy situation, the abil- ity of Iraqi Security Forces to take on more of a load and us to take on a less of a load. The ability, again, of the local authorities to 19 carry on and perform tasks in some cases that we were helping or perhaps performing. Again, those are the conditions that we examine. That is exactly the process that has guided us as we have determined which forces to take out and where to move them during the course of the reduc- tion of the surge forces. The CHAIRMAN. Can you foresee the reduction beyond the 15? General PETRAEUS. I can foresee the reduction beyond the 15, yes, sir. Again, the key is in fact we are looking at four or five loca- tions already that we have an eye on, looking to see if those condi- tions can be met there. Again, we have a number of months and a number of substantial actions to take before then. But we are al- ready identifying areas that we think are likely candidates for that. The CHAIRMAN. Do you have a judgment as to how many bri- gades of that 15, as you look at those certain areas, could be rede- ployed? General PETRAEUS. Sir, I am not sure. Again, what we are doing is looking at these different areas. Over time, I think all of them. Again, the question is at what pace that will take place. The CHAIRMAN. Mr. Ambassador, outside businesses, mostly American contractors, have been substantial employers in Iraq. Can you tell us, beyond the American contractual employment, how many market sustainable jobs have been created in the last 12 months? Ambassador CROCKER. I can't give you a reliable figure. The CHAIRMAN. What is your best judgment? Ambassador CROCKER. Thousands and thousands of jobs, Mr. Chairman. I referred in my testimony to one district of Baghdad, the district of Dora. A year ago, there were no markets. There was no economic activity at all. The Dora market today has something like 1,000 separate shops that are open and doing business. This has been replicated throughout the country in Ramadi and Fallujah, Anbar, and other parts of Baghdad. There has been a very substantial in- crease in economic activity and job creation as a result. The Iraqi Government is also moving forward to create more jobs. The Council of Ministers yesterday passed a support program for development in Mosul, Baghdad and Basra, all three areas af- fected by conflict, $350 million for reconstruction and for job cre- ation. So this is an ongoing process. The CHAIRMAN. My understanding is that some people within our government state that the unemployment rate in Iraq is between 25 percent and 50 percent. If that is the case, can you predict what the unemployment rate will be one year from now, Mr. Ambas- sador? Ambassador CROCKER. Again, I cannot predict what it will be ex- actly because, frankly, we don't have a great deal of confidence in figures that indicate what it is now. There is both unemployment and underemployment. What I would be confident in, with the con- tinuation of the security improvements we have seen, is that in conditions of better security, you are going to see more economic activity. The CHAIRMAN. Do you agree, Mr. Ambassador, that jobs and economic security are the basis of a strong Iraq? 20 Ambassador CROCKER. That is absolutely the case, Mr. Chair- man. That is why both we and the Iraqi government put so much emphasis on job creation and economic development. The CHAIRMAN. Mr. Hunter. Mr. HUNTER. Thank you, Mr. Chairman. Thanks for this hearing. Gentlemen, excellent testimony. I think you gave us a good broad brush of how things are going. A reliable, effective military is produced by military operations. A number of us have recommended that the Iraqi battalions now numbering 134, I believe, be rotated into combat operations on a regular basis so that they all achieve a certain competency, able to develop their logistics chains, exercise their chain of command, de- velop battlefield effectiveness. I Ảnow we have done that in the Baghdad operations on a reg- ular basis. So, General Petraeus, could you give us your take on the combat experience of the Iraqi army. How many battalions now have a modicum of combat experience, and how do you rate them? You might speak to the Basra experience as well as the Baghdad experience. General PETRAEUS. First of all, Congressman, I think that just about all of the battalions in the Iraqi army at this point have been in some form of combat, with perhaps a few exceptions of units that have just come out of basic training and units fielding and that have deployed areas now relatively peaceful, let's say a place like Anbar Province. Although, even there what we are doing is pushing them farther out from Anbar to pursue the enemy, try to keep our hooks into him. So, again, they are getting tested in com- bat and, by and large, have done well. Again, in the southern provinces in which they were tested re- cently, virtually all of them, Karbala Hill, Wasit, Qadisiyyah, Muthanna, and Dhi Qar, there were various challenges to them, and forces responded to those effectively. In Basra, unfortunately, one of the units that was thrust right into it very quickly was a unit that was just out of its unit set fielding. Others were local po- lice who are intimidate-able, if you will, because of coming from local areas, and conditions were not set for them as they might have been, frankly, so that they could get overwhelmed, could get intimidated by individuals who are actually well equipped and well trained. As, however, conditions have been established, as they have now got their footing, as additional experienced forces have flowed into Basra, it is very much an ongoing operation. They have then moved on. They have secured the ports. They have secured some key checkpoints and routes through which smuggling flows and so forth. All of this is still very much ongoing there, as it is in some of the other areas where the violence has gone up in recent weeks. The units that rotated through Baghdad did well. In fact, the Iraqis now are able to move them back to the locations from which they came. In several cases, they were from Ninawa province from Mosul. They can go back and help with the effort there to keep the pressure on al Qaeda Iraq. As you know, the violence by al Qaeda Iraq has gone down sig- nificantly across the board, with the one exception of Ninawa prov- 21 ince. As we focused on the Euphrates River Valley, the Basra neighborhoods north and south of Baghdad, Diyala River Valley, Baqubah, literally moved on up. However, it has not gone up near- ly the way it came down across the board in the other provinces. Again, up there they are very much in the lead. As I mentioned, there are over 100 battalions assessed to be in the lead, regardless of whether they are operational readiness as- sessment one or not. Frankly, the Operational Readiness Assess- ment (ORA) is difficult for the Iraqis because it is a very mechan- ical assessment. You either have the right number of leaders or you don't; right number of troopers, noncommissioned officers, equip- ment, maintenance, and so forth. What they do is they tend to pull leaders out once they have proven themselves in these units to form new units. So it is very difficult to keep the manning level to literally keep the arithmetic right to achieve ORA one status. What we tend to look at more is, are they capable of being in the lead, which is more based on demonstrated performance? And as I mentioned, there are over 100 of those units. In fact, it appears we are looking now to confirm that versus their recent perform- ance, and it appears that that generally was an accurate assess- ment. Mr. HUNTER. Give us your take, if you could, on the success or the degree of success or failures in the Basra operation. What do you see there, General? General PETRAEUS. Sir, the deployment was very impressive. As I mentioned in my statement, there is no way they could have de- ployed about a division's worth. Over time, it was three brigades equivalent of forces plus division headquarters and a lot of enablers. That never could have happened a year ago. In fact, they didn't have the capability to do that. They then used their C-130's cycled through multiple sorties a day to bring in supplies, rein- forcements, medical, Black Hawk casualties, and so on to deploy their various other elements. The Iraqi special operations forces elements across the board, all of them were involved, from the army, the police, and various pro- vincial SWAT teams as well. It was actually SWAT battalions in some cases. Needless to say, those tended to perform better than the brand new unit that I mentioned, and better than local police in, again, very, very contentious areas where they could get over- whelmed quickly and where the conditions weren't set. That is the area where there has to be some serious after-action review work done. That has to do with the setting of conditions with the plan- ning, the detailed planning and preparation before going right into combat. There was, candidly, an expectation that there was going to be more of that done. There were lines of operation, political, tribal, security, and so forth, and what happened in the end was there was a pretty precipitous entry into combat operations before, again, some of these units were set the way they should. Again, the oper- ation very much still ongoing. Mr. HUNTER. What is the state of play right now in Basra in terms of territory held by the antigovernment forces? General PETRAEUS. Well, as I mentioned, the Iraqi Security Forces took control of the ports, which is very, very important be- 23 through 2018. This series of bar graphs assumes that there will be a drawn down to 75,000 troops in both theaters, Iraq and Afghani- stan, a very questionable assumption, but that there will be a draw down to 75,000 troops by 2013, and thereafter sort of a steady state at this level, 75,000 troops over the next 5 years, through 2018. So, the total cost from 2009, if these projections are anything close to accurate, the total cost from 2009 to 2018 will come to about $1 trillion. If you add this $1 trillion for the outyear costs to the $608 billion already appropriated, the total comes to about $1 trillion 600 billion. If you adjust that for debt service—and we are borrowing every dime of this, so you may as well add the inter- est to it—it is well over $2 trillion. I have run these numbers past the Pentagon—they are not com- plicated—and asked them for their projections if they consider ours wrong or at least their corrections to our projections. They have not validated these numbers, but neither have they invalidated these numbers. Here is what we do have from the Department of Defense (DOD). We have a request from the Department of Defense for Iraq and Afghanistan in 2009, the next fiscal year, the budget year we are about to begin work on, of $70 billion. I don't think either one of you would support that number. Indeed, the Pentagon says it is a place holder. It is a place holder. But given the supplemental re- quest for this year, which has not been fully appropriated yet, it is $196 billion. It is hard to believe that we will fall or drop from $196 billion to $70 billion between 2008 and 2009. So one thing we don't have yet, even though we are about to begin the budget sea- son, is a real number for 2009. Second, we don't have a realistic number for the out years be- yond 2009. We have instead, believe it or not, an actual decline in real dollars in the Pentagon's Fiscal Year Defense Plan (FYDP). We have a decline in real dollars for 2005 for the Department of De- fense budget over the next five-over the four years following 2009. I think you would agree that these are consequential numbers, whether you agree with them exactly or not. Whenever you spend $2 trillion on one thing, you don't have $2 trillion to spend on something else. A good example is Afghanistan. Admiral Mullen sat where you sat just last week and said: We are under sourcing, under resourcing, undermanning Afghanistan. But to move the re- source levels up to where they ought to be, our allies are not com- ing through with any big numbers. To do that would require that we detract from Iraq. And as long as Iraq is the number one objec- tive and Afghanistan the subordinate objective, we don't have the wherewithal to do that. There is an opportunity cost to be paid. So my basic question is this, look at these costs. As you make your assessment of the situation after the five brigade combat teams have been withdrawn, are considerations like this a factor, the tradeoffs, the effectiveness in stretching out the Army, the pri- orities? Is this something you two will weigh in your consideration as to what we should do for our continued deployment? [The charts referred to can be found in the Appendix beginning on page 95.] 24 General PETRAEUS. Absolutely, Congressman. In fact, as I men- tioned in my statement, that is one of the major strategic consider- ations that I offered. Mr. SPRATT. Could you tell us, what your—with the $70 billion, what the likely supplemental request for this year is? General PETRAEUS. Sir, as you know, that is a service responsi- bility. Mr. SPRATT. Thank you, sir. I think I have been overruled. The CHAIRMAN. Mr. Saxton. Mr. SAXTON. Mr. Chairman, may I just ask, Mr. Chairman, if the five-minute rule, as the way it has played out here in the last few minutes, somehow we need to permit I would think General Petraeus and Ambassador Crocker to answer questions. Mr. CHAIRMAN. Certainly. If you have an answer to that last question, feel free to do so. Thank you very much. General PETRAEUS. Well, what I was going to say, Mr. Chairman, is merely, again, we work very closely with the services. But at the end of the day, as you well know, it is the services that provide the input to the department and provide those numbers. The CHAIRMAN. Thank you. Mr. Saxton. Mr. SAXTON. Thank you, General, Ambassador Crocker. First, let me thank you for your great candor here this morning in explaining what you see as progress, as well as what you see as challenges for the future. I think it is important that we under- stand that, we understand your perspective, and that the American people have an opportunity to understand your perspectives, par- ticularly with regard to their concerns about the future. General Petraeus, in your testimony you note your recommenda- tion for a 45-day period of consolidation and evaluation followed by a process of assessment to determine possible further reductions in U.S. force levels in Iraq. I believe that it is very important that we understand that process and that the American people have an op- portunity to understand that process as well. So if you could each take whatever time you need to describe that assessment process, including some of the factors which you will be tracking. General PETRAEUS. Congressman, essentially, it is hard. This is looking at the security and local government conditions in a par- ticular area to determine where and how we can thin out our forces rather than completely handing off. That is what we have done al- ready. In Anbar Province, for example, we are in the process of going from 14 battalions down to about 6 battalions. That is part of the ongoing process. So this is really an assessment process that we have used repeat- edly as we have looked at where we should end up, if you will, in doing the so-called battlefield geometry of determining troop-to- task analysis and where you want to position forces, again, when the dust settles. That is the same process that we will do in the future. As I mentioned earlier, there are already several areas that we have identified that are the candidate locations for further reduc- tions. In each case, we sit down with the commanders, with their 25 staffs. We walk the ground. We work with the local authorities. Again, at the heart of it, it has to do with the security situation. What is the enemy situation? What is the Iraqi capability to deal with that? What are the factors in terms of local governance, basic services, and other factors that feed into the sense that the popu- lation will support their legitimate forces? And then we determine where we want the forces to end up and what strength, and that allows you to withdraw certain forces over time. Ambassador CROCKER. Sir, there is also what we call a political- military calculus that we have to take into account, as well as the battlefield geometry. One element of that is assessing not only what the conditions are with our current force presence, but how things change as we redeploy, how various elements on the scene may reposition their selves because we are no longer there. So it is a complex evaluation both of current conditions but also pro- jecting how our redeployment will change future conditions. Mr. SAXTON. It sounds to me like you are saying that this process of assessment has been used in the past and it has resulted, at least in one result, at least, has been that we are now talking and projecting that we are going to reduce forces, bring the surge folks home, if you will. So this assessment process is not something that you are creating for the future, it is something that has actually been used in the past to arrive at the decisions that you have now made. General PETRAEUS. That is correct, sir. In fact, we are certainly well over halfway through the reduction of the surge forces, and that is exactly the process that we have used as we have sat down and worked this out. Obviously, I sit a good bit with the Multi- national Corps Iraq commander, previously General Odinero, now General Austin, as we do that process and work that out. As I mentioned, we also certainly sit down with the commanders in those areas, walk the streets, talk to local Iraqis, look at the trends, look at the metrics. I showed you some of the metrics today, that if you look at them on a local basis, again, guide the assess- ment that I have described to you. Again, it is exactly the process that we have used to examine where we could in fact draw our forces down as we bring the surge forces home. It has not been just mechanical. We haven't just pulled one out that we put in. We actually will look a good bit different at the end of this than we did before. As an example, far fewer forces in Anbar Province because of the progress that has been made there. Mr. SAXTON. Mr. Chairman, thank you. The CHAIRMAN. Thank you. Mr. Ortiz. Mr. ORTIZ. Thank you, Mr. Chairman. I want to thank both of you gentlemen for your service and sacrifices that you have made. We appreciate both of you being with us today. General Petraeus, the human cost of the war is a loss of 4,000 American lives. The security gains of this surge are, in my opinion, arguable, as evidenced by the recent fighting in Baghdad and Basra. Another cost is the significant decrease in our current mili- tary readiness. In fact nearly all Stateside units are unable to com- plete all of their assigned worked if called upon or for contingency combat operations. I firmly believe that we have to be prepared to 26 fight yesterday, today and tomorrow. I am afraid that we are run- ning out of options should another contingency arise requiring the use of our ground forces. Now how long do you believe the ground forces can sustain the current operational tempo and the pace of deployment? And how much of a strategic risk to America should we expect to assume be- fore we see real progress? I ask these questions because we have had different hearings where we see that our equipment is being destroyed. We have too many deployments. The troops are tired. Maybe you can enlighten the committee as to how long can the ground forces sustain the current operational tempo, and the risk to us Americans we expect to assume before we see real, real progress in Iraq and Afghani- stan. General PETRAEUS. Congressman, as I mentioned in my state- ment and in response to an earlier question, I am keenly aware of the strain. I can tell you that there is nothing that a commander feels more than, in fact, the losses that we have sustained over there. As I mentioned yesterday, I have been deployed personally for four-and-a-half years since 2001. So this is something that my fam- ily and I do know a great deal about personally. The forces that are in Iraq are the ones that I can talk to. I can tell you that those forces are better prepared to do what we are doing there now than they ever have been at any time that I have been in Iraq. I have mentioned several times that there were two huge facts that were different when I returned to Iraq in February 2007. One was the damage done by sectarian violence, which was horrific, which we were going to try to stop and, by and large, have achieved great progress in stopping. The second was how much more our troopers get it about what it is they are doing. The coun- terinsurgency is not just stability-and-support, hearts-and-minds operations. It includes by doctrine, by definition, offense, defense, as well as stability and support. They are conducting big operations on occasion or have in the course of the past year in places like Ramadi, south Baghdad, Baqubah, and others and have done a magnificent job in that, thanks in large measure to the equipment and to the vast improvements that have been paid in what our sol- diers have down range now. When I look at what we had when I was a division commander and went through the berm in the fight to Baghdad, and what divi- sions have now, it is extraordinary. We are very grateful. I would like to single out particularly the Mine Resistant Ambush Pro- tected (MRĂP) vehicles have already saved countless lives in Iraq. And the speed with which you made that happen, together with the department, was very impressive. Again, having said all that, I am aware keenly of the strain and stress on the force, on the individuals, on the equipment, on readi- ness and so forth. Having noted that, paradoxically, our troopers have incredible resilience. The reenlistment of the Third Infantry Division, which is completing its third tour in Iraq now, they have already met halfway through the year their reenlistment goal for the entire year. 27 So there is something special about what it is our men and women are doing in their minds and about the cause that they are serving. It is something larger than self. It is something that is very important. And of course, ultimately, on the battlefield, it is about the soldier on their right and left. But they have continued to raise their right hand. There is one segment of the population that we are concerned about, and that is the young captains. Some of them have been in the cycle where we have asked an extraordinary amount of them in particular, and I know the Army is working very hard to look at the issues involving them. We should note, and I am sure the Army has explained, there is also a different readiness model. There is no question but that the strategic reserve right now is, as General Cody rightly pointed out, the lowest he has seen in his time. But also it is programmed that when units come back, that they will refit and all the rest of that. That will be rebuilt over time. I think that over time, I am hope- ful, I have certainly given my support to 12-month deployments. Operationally, we would welcome that, both because of the strain and stress and really just the general recognition of the value in that. Hopefully, this reduction can allow that over time. The CHAIRMAN. Along that same line, General, do you take into account the strain on the American forces in your recommendations to redeploy from Iraq? General PETRAEUS. Absolutely, yes, sir. The CHAIRMAN. Thank you. Mr. McHugh from New York. Mr. McHUGH. Thank you, Mr. Chairman. Gentlemen, thank you so much for being here. Over 10 hours yesterday over the United States Senate. God knows how many hours today before the House. Your courage, your commitment has been well underscored. We appreciate your being here and all that you do. I guess the big debate right now, the big question is, what, if anything, happens through a precipitous withdrawal? Both of you have spoken about Basra. I guess we will be learning lessons there for some time. But as I look at the lead up to Basra, as I look to what conditions were on the ground there that created the oppor- tunity for the Quds force to come in to become involved with the so-called special groups, with the criminal elements that operated out of the port, taking revenues that should have gone to the Iraqi people and instead directing them into illegal activities, all of the nefarious elements that came to fore there, is there a lesson to us about precipitous withdrawal? We have been blessed with great coalition partners. But in the south I think there is some reason to be concerned that perhaps the turnover there happened without proper conditions on the ground. Am I totally wrong there, or are there some lessons we can learn about why we need to be prudent in the days ahead? General PETRAEUS. Well, there are lessons to be learned. But it is also very important to recognize that, again, this was sought by the Iraqis. They very much wanted to have Basra shift to provin- cial Iraqi control. There were a number of measures taken to shore 29 Gentlemen, thank you for being here and for your service to our country. I, like my colleague, agree that all of us want to see our troops returned home as quickly as possible. General Petraeus, I know that you are knowledgeable to the find- ings of the most recent National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) on Iraq. At this point in time, no portion of the most recent Iraq NIE has been declassified, so we can't talk about the findings of that assessment, at least not in an open hearing like this. But in the unclassified key judgments from the August 2007 update, it stated: There have been measurable but uneven improvements in the Iraq security situation since our last National Intelligence Estimate on Iraq in January of 2007. That was the August NIE, the declassified portion. So, as someone, like many of my colleagues here today, who has studied the current NIE and previous intelligence estimates, I have to say that the situation in Iraq, as has been verified by the Direc- tor of National Intelligence, is somewhat inconsistent with the ac- tions that you are recommending or proposing in terms of the drawdown of the surge. So my question is—and, actually, two questions. First of all, has the security situation on the ground in Iraq changed so much that we can actually start pulling back the surge forces? The second question is, what happens if the security situation changes during the so called 45-day pause? Are we going to reinstate the surge? And if we are, how long can such a reconstituted surge be sus- tained, in your opinion? General PETRAEUS. First of all, again, I would not have rec- ommended drawing down the surge if I did not think that the secu- rity progress enabled that, not just in terms of all the metrics that I have shown but also in the slowly but steadily improving capa- bilities of Iraqi forces, Iraqi governance, and other aspects that we take into account. Mr. REYES. Irrespective of what has happened in Basra? General PETRAEUS. In fact, the Iraqis are in the lead in Basra, Congressman. Again, they are the ones. We have some transition teams. We have some advisors. We have certainly provided enablers in the form of intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance, closed air support, which the Iraqis do not have a sufficient capa- bility yet but are developing. Mr. REYES. In your statement, you also said that the current sit- uation is fragile and reversible. You are not concerned that Basra could be the string that would start unraveling the rest of the frag- ile stability that you talked about? General PETRAEUS. In fact, in the other southern provinces, it is the reason I highlighted that, because they could succumb to the same kind of challenges that you have in Basra. And there were attempts by militia elements in these other southern provinces. Virtually all of them that are south of Baghdad, down to Basra, and, again, in all but really, Mayson, which is the Marsh Arabs who have always been out of control, weren't under control under Saddam and aren't under control by anybody right now either, frankly. The rest of those have done well. In fact, the Iraqi forces in those areas, with small assistance, if any, from our forces, have 30 been equal to the task of ensuring the continued security in those areas. Šo I do believe I think we can move this forward and con- tinue on the course that we are on. Mr. REYES. So if at any point in the 45-day pause security dete- riorates, what does that mean? What contingency plans do we have? Will you reinstate the surge? General PETRAEUS. That would be a pretty remote thought in my mind, for a variety of different reasons. One is the strategic consid- erations that I have explained. The other is, we do have the ability to move some forces around, obviously, and we would certainly want to do that, both Iraqi forces as well as our forces. Again, the Iraqis have now built some capability to respond in the form of the emergency response unit in the Ministry of Interior, this very substantial and very good Iraqi Special Operations Force Brigade, and a number of these so-called Special Weapons and Tac- tics (SWAT), but they are much more than SWAT teams in many cases. In Hillah, for example, it is a SWAT battalion. They have moved these around, and they have used these as required. That would certainly be the option that we would want to see exercised. Mr. REYES. Thank you, Mr. Chairman. The CHAIRMAN. Thank the gentleman. Mr. Everett from Alabama. Mr. EVERETT. Thank you, Mr. Chairman. General, Ambassador, thank you very much for your service, for those that you lead. We appreciate your dedication to this country. General, thank you for your earlier service and some of the com- ments that you had observed in the way that this ought to be con- ducted in Iraq. None of us like the cost of this. If our Congressional Research Service (CRS) is correct, we are looking at $1 trillion. It is right that we discuss it. It is also right that we, as Mr. McHugh said, we are disappointed that the Iraqis and other countries over there are not contributing more to this campaign. But if we are going to look at that $1 trillion, then we probably should also ask at the same time, how much is 3,000 lives worth? How much is 30,000 lives worth? We have all agreed that we are fighting an enemy that is deter- mined to kill Americans, and they will continue to kill Americans. They have been killing Americans for 20, 25 years prior to 9/11. While it is fair to bring that figure up, it is also fair to ask how much value do we place on 3,000 American lives or 30,000 Amer- ican lives. Mr. Ambassador, you spoke to this in your testimony. There are obviously countries over there who disagree with a free Iraq, dis- agree with free elections, disagree with the fact that all their citi- zens have rights. Would you discuss in a little more detail some of those countries that are contributing those outside actors, as you have said, that are contributing, and also how they are contrib- uting, if they are contributing, the percentage of them that may be in the country, if they are contributing for materials, manpower, and exactly how they are engaged? I would hope members would keep in mind that these are coun- tries that do not want us to succeed in Iraq by any method. Mr. Ambassador. 32 ghanistan. How should the Congress respond to that kind of com- ment? General PETRAEUS. Well, again, you are asking the Commander in Iraq. Dr. SNYDER. I assume you would say you would want the troops today. General PETRAEUS. Again, obviously. I don't know how the Con- gress responds. I guess the Congress weighs how much more it can resource. I think you are already funding an expansion of the Army and of the Marine Corps, I believe. Again, I have been sort of fo- cused on another task. Dr. SNYDER. The reason I asked that is because I think, Ambas- sador Crocker, in your written statement you referred to some would choose to walk away from Iraq. The discussions that we have here is, how do we resource everything we need to do? Part of it is when we have Admiral Fallon saying we need 2,000 more troops today, not next month, not 6 months; today. But the reason that is not occurring is because Iraq is priority number one. Most of us aren't sure when that occurred. We don't know when this need for additional troops is going to be met. We consider Afghani- stan also to be an utmost high priority for the United States. And yet it is not happening today. And we are responsible for it. You are not responsible for it. You are doing great at what you are doing. But we are responsible for it. I wanted to ask, in this chart here that you presented, this sec- tion over here, nonkinetics, this chart that you two presented, you list services and job programs. I didn't see any charts today in some of the specifics with regard to services. I will list topics here and you tell me if such a chart would be available: electricity pro- duction availability, prenatal care for pregnant women, vaccination rates for children five years of age and under, neonatal deaths, availability of clean and safe water, availability of sewer systems, oil production, oil exports. Would you have charts available on all of those indications of services available to the Iraqi people? Ambassador CROCKER. We certainly have data available on some of those categories, oil production exports, electricity generation, and so forth. Dr. SNYDER. One of the frustrations we have when we hear that things are better in a neighborhood, generally people talk about, we can walk through this neighborhood. But we don't know what is going on behind those doors. We are now five years plus into this. We don't know where we are at with the quality of life for children, for health care, for prenatal care. Economics I think is a very hard thing to get a handle on, as Chairman Skelton was talk- ing about. There was a paucity in your presentation, Ambassador Crocker, on those quality-of-life things for the Iraqi people. I wanted to ask, with regard to the Provincial Reconstruction Teams (PRTs), which you talked about, Ambassador Crocker. We have a report coming out, this committee does, in the next couple of weeks on PRTs. I hope in your free time you will get a chance to read it because we would love to hear your comments on it. We think it is pretty thorough. What are the PRTs' specific objectives, 33 and how are you measuring the performance of PRTs in meeting those objectives in Iraq? Ambassador CROCKER. The PRTs have a number of objectives: improving local governance, improve linkages between local govern- ance and the Federal Government, helping local governments de- liver services to the people, helping them with budget formulation and execution. We have established what we call a maturity model. All PRTs are required to report quarterly where they are in these various categories, these various responsibilities. And we have de- veloped a set of criteria to ensure a reasonable uniformity of stand- ards across the PRTs to measure this. Dr. SNYDER. Thank you. Thank you, Mr. Chairman. General PETRAEUS. Mr. Chairman, could I just put in a soldier's plug for the PRTs, and commander's plug, because they have been of enormous value to us, and they have provided expertise to bri- gade and division commanders that just is not resident otherwise. Given even with all the tremendous talent that we have, even from the reserve components, they have been of just enormous help to us. The CHAIRMAN. Thank you. Mr. Bartlett. Then we will have a quick break. Mr. BARTLETT. Thank you both very much for your service and your honest testimony. I have a couple of brief questions that I hope both of you might choose to respond to. As we have stood up in the surge, Moqtada al-Sadr, perhaps in enlightened self-interest, stood down. We do not know how many other insurgent groups following al-Sadr's lead also stood down. Clearly, this kind of violence should subside and it did. How much of the apparent success of the surge is attributable to this stand-down? Both of you have noted that the tenuous successes are reversible. Is the continued stand-down of insurgent groups essential to the continued political improvements, dependent on continuation of the surge, or has there been a fundamental cultural change so that in- surgent groups' stand-up would no longer be effective? Is our pres- ence in Îraq equivalent to a temporary plug in a hole in the dike that, when removed, would result in escalating erosion and ulti- mate irreversible failure of the dike? We would appreciate your observations. General PETRAEUS. Well , Congressman, as I mentioned in my statement, the stand-downs of insurgent groups are actually more importantly the awakening of some insurgent groups to actually, actively oppose al Qaeda Iraq, and the extremist ideology and vio- lence that they had brought to these local communities has been a very important factor, as has certainly the stand-down of the Sadr militia, although we did continue to go after the special group elements throughout that time and, in fact, have detained a num- ber of them along with substantial quantities of weapons and docu- ments and so forth that very clearly lay out the role that Iran has played, the contribution that Lebanese Hezbollah has played, as well, with the Quds force. To come back to the insurgent groups, the key is obviously the transition of them into legitimate employment, legitimate Iraqi se- 35 General PETRAEUS. Well, it is very akin, Congressman, to the idea that in a sense we might hold them back in the security tasks as well. And so it is another area where we are constantly looking at, is this the time to allow them to get into the deep end and be there if necessary, but how hard do you need to hang on to the bi- cycle seat, that kind of measure. And we look at that across the board and in this area as well. But in the security arena and local governance and the provision of basic services and all the rest of that, we are keenly aware that there could be cases where they are going to say, well, Why should we do it for ourselves if they are doing it for us? Counter to that is this impulse that I mentioned earlier, that we have seen repeatedly really, which is the desire to exercise sov- ereignty and the desire to be in charge. And occasionally it actually pushes them to do—not more than occasionally; it pushes them to want to do something perhaps before they are completely ready to do that. And there have been some issues that have evolved as a result of that. Mr. SMITH. On a different issue in the same area, do you think our presence motivates insurgents, or I think it clearly motivates Iran to cause more problems in Iraq than they otherwise would, be- cause if we are not there, as I think Ambassador Crocker men- tioned, Iran doesn't have much interest in Iraqi instability. But if we are there, given the conflict we have with Iran and the very real threats that Iran poses, they have to be worried about what our military would do if it got too secure in Iraq. So do you factor that in in terms of how we reach ultimate concil- iation with Iran, and also with the various Shi'a factions? I want to throw one more question at you, and they are on the Shi'a factions. Because what happened in Basra and Baghdad re- cently could be simply dismissed as the government v. unlawful mi- litias. But if you dig very deep down you find out that there is more to it. It is basically rival militias fighting it out. The Badr brigades seem to be more closely allied right now with the Iraqi Government, but the Badr brigades also to some extent are allied with Iran. So what is our long-term strategy there? Are we really choosing sides between the Badr brigades and the Mahdi army, and if so, why do we perceive that to be in our interest? Ambassador CROCKER. Those are two very good questions, Con- gressman. With respect to Iranian activities in Iraq, my earlier comments were my analysis of what I think should be Iran's long-term stra- tegic calculations, not what they necessarily are. Clearly, they are motivated to try to put pressure on us. That is obviously part of it. But having watched this dynamic for a number of years in the region, I think what the Iranians are doing is pursuing a policy, if you will, of Lebanonization, doing what they did in Lebanon. And they, in conjunction with Syria, have pursued a policy of backing more than one militia in Lebanon for the last quarter of a century. And we haven't been there in Lebanon as a military force since 1984. So I think they would be pursuing these kinds of efforts in Iraq. 36 Mr. SMITH. I am almost out of time. Could one of you quickly touch on the issue of the side that we are choosing in the Shi'a fac- tion, and then why that is in our interest? Ambassador CROCKER. Yes, sir. That is also a very important point. The way Iraqis are reading the events of Basra and Baghdad is the government against extremist militias. That is what has fused political support for Prime Minister Maliki and his govern- ment in a way that we just haven't seen, at least during the year I was there. So Iraqis themselves, Kurds and Sunnis, as well as most of the Shi'a, are perceiving this as government against Shi’a extremists. Mr. SMITH. Thank you. The CHAIRMAN. Thank you. Mr. McKeon. Mr. McKEON. Thank you, Mr. Chairman. Thank you, General and Ambassador, for your service and that of all of the men and women you command that are out there fight- ing for our freedoms. You know, there is lots of discussion as to mistakes that have been made previously. I think those can be discussed forever. But what I would like to focus on a little bit is now going forward from here. I have a quote from bin Laden. You know, some people say that we should get out right away; some people say we should phase out; some people say we should set dates. There are lots of com- ments. But I think we have also talked about the price of being there and the price of leaving. And I think bin Laden puts a focus pretty good; he says, “The world's millstone and pillar is in Bagh- dad, the capital of the caliphate.” The whole world is watching this war and the two adversaries, the Islamic nations on the one hand and the United States and its allies on the other. It is either victory and glory or misery and hu- miliation. I think he understands the consequences of us leaving early before we finish our mission. I am hopeful that the American people understand that, and I think they do. General, could you please comment a little bit on the morale of our troops and their families, how they feel about the mission? General PETRAEUS. Congressman, first of all, let me just say that I don't want to start off by generalizing about morale. I want to start off by explaining that morale is an individual event. And mo- rale depends from soldier to soldier, and for me as well, on the kind of day that you are having out there in the theater. And it is a roll- er-coaster existence. Now, having said that, there is actually something called the mental health assessment which is done every year. The last one was done in the late fall, I believe it was, and after several years of a generalization of morale as going down, morale actually went up. We have talked about it, talked to the command, Sergeant Major Hill, my senior noncommissioned officer in Multi-National Forces Iraq (MNFI) and a long time as the same in the 101st Airborne Di- vision, and a number of other commissioned and noncommissioned leaders and troopers; and I think it is a sense that they have had that they are making progress, that in a number of different areas 37 where they were operating they could see tangible results, and that they saw the reversal of the ethno-sectarian violence, the progress that had been made by al Qaeda and so forth and so on. And, of course, if you feel like you are making progress, then I think you obviously feel better about what it is you are engaged in. Beyond that, the other indicator that we look at very closely, as I mentioned earlier, is reenlistment. And again I focus on reenlist- ment in theater, and it has repeatedly been way above what the goals are for the units that are deployed there. As I mentioned, one of the units that is there, just completing its third tour in Iraq, has already met its reenlistment goal for the en- tire fiscal year. So, again, no question about the strain, the sacrifice of our troop- ers and on their families, some of them making the ultimate sac- rifice. But our great young men and women continue to raise their right hand and want to continue to serve, by and large, with per- haps that one population that we are concerned most about, which is the young captains. And again, as I mentioned earlier, that is something that I know that my service and the other services are looking very hard at to try to figure out how to give them some breaks and how to give them additional incentives to stay with this very important mission. Mr. MICKEON. I have just a little time left. Could you expand on the Sons of Iraq and how that is helping us? General PETRAEUS. Well, sir, the Sons of Iraq are individuals. It really dates all the way back to Anbar Province and the first awak- ening which—to be fair, it started before the surge, but then was very much enabled by the surge because that enabled us to clear areas over time. But it started with a sheikh in Anbar Province coming to a bri- gade commander in Ramadi, saying back in October of 2006, Would you support us if we turned our weapons on al Qaeda instead of on you? And the brigade commander got that test question right. He pledged support. It took some time to build those forces, to get them going, to get it established. By mid-March they were ready to clear Baqubah, or I am sorry, Ramadi. Over time, this played out in other areas. Originally, they were not paid. Over time they did ask if we could pay them, because they were helping with security. We have lots of security contractors and now we have 91,000 more, called Sons of Iraq. The calculations we have done showed that this is a pretty good bargain, because the cost in their salaries per month is a lot less than the amount of vehicle losses that don't take place because we have this support. They are helping us to hold areas that have been cleared of al Qaeda or their insurgent allies. So, again, they are a very, very important component of this. They help with local security most of all. And quantity has a qual- ity of its own in counterinsurgency operations where the enemy can attack anywhere and you must guard everywhere; and they have helped us to do that. They have, by the way, been targeted very heavily by al Qaeda, which shows the importance that al Qaeda sees, because they are also a manifestation of the population rejecting al Qaeda. And their losses have been similar, around two and a half to three times our 39 And last, in theory, reduction of U.S. forces should be possible as Iraqi army forces achieve the necessary state of readiness and ef- fective independent operations. In light of this reality, what can be done to accelerate the process of training, equipping and transfer- ring responsibility to the Iraqi forces? Should we devote more re- sources to it? What do we do about those who didn't fight or ran away? Do you agree with the Jones Commission that the Iraqi army is not ready to be independent in 12 to 18 months? That would be the end of this year. And how much of the Iraqi army do you believe will really be ready to operate independently within the time frame, that is, by December of this year? General PETRAEUS. Well, I have tried to write as quickly as I could, Congresswoman. Ms. SANCHEZ. I can go over them again if you would like. General PETRAEUS. Let me try to answer them if I can. Ms. SANCHEZ. You know what I am asking, General. General PETRAEUS. I do indeed. First of all, we have acted on a number of the recommendations that the Jones Commission report made, and frankly, we agreed with their assessment of the national police that it was. And I am on the record as stating repeatedly that the national police were hi- jacked by sectarian interests during the height of the sectarian vio- lence and they had become a sectarian actor. And, in fact, every one of the brigade commanders, division commanders and overall commander of the national police were relieved, as were about 70 percent of the battalion commanders. In one case, by the way, the relief was twice in one unit. And they actually have—they have become net contributors now, rather than net consumers or net sectarian actors. And, in fact, if you talk to the commanders on the ground in Baghdad or else- where where there are national police operating, you will find that in a number of cases the national police are pulling their load and that the commander of the national police over the course of about the last 8 to 10 months has made substantial progress in that it has been directed by the Minister of Interior. Each brigade has gone through a reblueing process, a period of training where the entire brigade goes off to a training center and goes through intensive training. And now the Italian carabinieri are actually in helping units one after another to do additional work. The Ministry of Interior has worked to reduce sectarian influ- ence, militia influence and so forth. This is not easy when you are in a situation that that ministry was in at the end of the sectarian violence of 2006–2007, but they have indeed made progress, in our assessment. I also brought in another team to look at some specifics, based on General Jone's Commission's report, and again did follow a number of the steps with respect to that. As General Dubik, the head of the training-equip mission, has been pursuing. The Iraqi army has taken over numerous areas already, as I have mentioned in my testimony today, and although there clearly were units that did not measure up and leaders that did not meas- ure up in Basra—and by the way, we then, together with our Iraqi 40 counterparts, provided a list of individuals that we thought didn't meet the mark in Basra, as well as in Baghdad; and also a list of those who did very well—to provide our input. Because they do have a leader assessment process in the Ministries of Defense and Interior and they will use that; and in some cases, the Prime Min- ister directed their relief. I also mentioned that the Iraqi Security Forces did do well in the face of violence that sprang up at the time of the Basra operation start in the southern provinces; and again they did a creditable job. And those are areas that have been many of those have been handed off to provincial Iraqi control. One of the others will be handed off in the next few months. Again, the same is playing out in Anbar Province, of all places, at one time the most dangerous province in Iraq, now a place where a unit returned to Fort Stewart from the Army, as well where the concern of the infantry battalion was that many of them had not received combat infantryman badges because they hadn't been in real combat and, again, Iraqi forces stepping up in those locations. So that is, I think, a pretty quick answer, although 3 minutes over the time. Ms. SANCHEZ. Thank you, General. And I will submit it further in writing so that you can get the specifics to me, because I am in- terested. Thank you. Thank you, Mr. Chairman. The CHAIRMAN. Mr. Thornberry. Mr. THORNBERRY. Thank you, Mr. Chairman. General, today and some yesterday, there have been calls to de- classify recent Intelligence Community assessments. And kind of left hanging is this implication that there is something radically different in this assessment than in your public testimony today. So I guess I would just like to ask briefly, do you take Intel- ligence Community products into account in writing your public testimony, and is there something substantially different in that particular assessment from the thrust of your public testimony that you have given today? General PETRAEUS. We do take it into account. In fact, we draw very heavily, obviously, on our own intelligence assessments as well. But certainly take it into account. And there is not any dif- ference that I am aware of, having looked at that fairly quickly be- tween what that says and what we have said. And I am not the one who does declassification of intelligence documents. Mr. THORNBERRY. I understand. Let me go to, I think, maybe a larger point. General, in your testimony you talked about the gradual estab- lishment of sustainable security in Iraq as vitally important to the citizens of the United States. And, Ambassador, in your testimony you said we have to be clear with ourselves about what failure would mean. The American peo- ple don't hear that sort of talk very much. What they hear is what happened today on the ground with this bombing or this suicide bomber. And that is, if something happened on the ground; if it is relatively quiet, they don't get any news. 43 means. Mr. MCINTYRE. Thank you for your service there, too. Ambassador CROCKER. Sir, with respect to the local police, they have again taken on more and more and more. And interestingly what is emerging as the poster child for this is Anbar Province. Fallujah again, one of the most dangerous cities in Iraq, now has no Iraqi army or military in it. It has 10 police precincts, each of which is a gated community, essentially. They have had a Marine squad per police precinct. They are gradually downsizing those, so we will probably have one for every two for a while and then gradually reduce those. And they are doing a creditable job. There are always temptations in Iraq and there is something cul- tural, frankly, about ensuring that there is not corruption ongoing, and there is an effort. They have, in fact, relieved police chiefs, in some cases detained police chiefs in Anbar among other places to make sure that they are not supplementing their income by illicit Iraq is a country with enormous oil riches and other natural blessings; and again, there has to be continued effort to make sure that local police don't succumb to the temptations again to try to get their hands into some of this. Mr. MCINTYRE. Thank you. Thank you, Mr. Chairman. The CHAIRMAN. Thank you. Mr. Jones. Mr. JONES. Mr. Chairman, thank you very much. And to the two gentlemen at the desk, thank you for your leader- ship, your patriotism to this great Nation and all the good things you are trying to do for America. Ambassador Crocker, I want to ask you a question, but I don't want you to answer it right now because I have got a second ques- tion, and you can combine them both. How often do you have communications with the Iraqi govern- mental leadership, especially Prime Minister Maliki? Second, to what Mr. Sproul was saying, the issue and the reasons, which you have nothing to do but to protect the security of this Nation, so this was not meant toward you, his bringing these figures up. The reason is that this country right now is borrowing money from foreign governments to pay our bills. In the year 2001 a gal- lon of 87 octane gas cost $1.42; today it is $3.35. In addition, in 2001 a barrel of oil was $28; today it is over $100. And I am not going on and on. But the issue is that we in this Congress are going to be cutting programs to help our elderly with health care. So we do want you, as you are trying to do today, to give us, as you have done, the honest assessment of where every- thing is. But the American people do support the troops, as we sup- port the troops. The American people want to know that the Iraqi Government understands that we do not have treasure and blood to go on and on and on. And, Mr. Ambassador, the reason I bring this up is that a couple of your statements, as well as the General's, were very, very you know, statements such as “gains are fragile and reversible,” “can- not guarantee success, but we are closer"; and we appreciate those statements. 44 But recently Prime Minister Maliki demanded al-Sadr to disband his Mahdi army, threatened to bar al-Sadr followers from the polit- ical process if the cleric refused; and I quote, “A decision was taken yesterday that no longer have a right to participate in the political process or take part in the upcoming elections unless they end the Mahdi army." My question to you because of the word “fragile,” which I appre- ciate—and you have been very honest, “fragile”—do you have con- versations with Maliki? Does he take you into discussion as it re- lates to political decisions that are going to be forthcoming? Because this is the question to you: If, by chance, that he would bar al-Sadr's group from the political process, what would be the results of that? Ambassador CROCKER. Congressman, General Petraeus and I see a great deal of the Iraqi political leadership. We met with Prime Minister Maliki, for example, I think just the day before we got on the plane to come back here. We also have extensive contacts with the other elements of the leadership, and we do in those contacts register our views. We consult. But at the same time Prime Minister Maliki is the leader of a sovereign government, and as we saw in Basra, he will take his own decisions. He did not extensively consult with us before that operation. We learned of it just a couple of days before he em- barked on it. With respect to the Jaysh al-Mahdi, I point out that it is not just the Prime Minister. President Talabani, the Kurdish President of Iraq, yesterday also called on Moqtada al-Sadr to disband that mi- litia and commit himself fully to the political process. And again I think this is one of the really positive developments we have seen that I referred to earlier, a popular rejection of militia, extremist terrorist violence, both Sunni and Shi’a. And it is reflected not only in the Prime Minister's call, but a position that spans the political spectrum, a statement issued last Saturday specifically called for the disbanding of militias. And that was a collective view of all the major political movements. The CHAIRMAN. I thank the gentleman. The gentlelady from California, Mrs. Tauscher. Mrs. TAUSCHER. Thank you, Mr. Chairman. General Petraeus, Ambassador Crocker, thank you for your serv- ice and to your families and the people that you represent. Gentle- men, over the last few weeks some of the national polling, a CBS- New York Times poll, have increasingly larger numbers of Ameri- cans saying, for example, looking back, do you think the United States did the right thing in taking military action against Iraq or should the United States have stayed out? Sixty-two percent say “stayed out.” Do you favor or oppose the U.S. war in Iraq? Sixty-six percent say “oppose.” All in all, do you think this situation in Iraq was worth going to war over or not? Sixty-two percent, “not worth it. Now, both of you have stated in repeated testimony that our withdrawal from Iraq or redeployment from Iraq is going to be con- ditions-based. Apparently that is a metric for Iraq. 45 Those are not the only conditions that we have to look at; we have to also look at the conditions here. My constituents in Cali- fornia repeatedly tell me that they don't believe that we can sus- tain the number of troops or the treasure that we are expending. The American people, gentlemen, love their troops and appre- ciate their sacrifice, but they do not like this mission and they want to know what is going to happen. And we have an election coming forward in November and that is going to be significantly about this. On January 21st of 2009, if you report to a commander in chief that says that they want a plan for the withdrawal of troops in the next 60 days, what will you advise them? General PETRAEUS. Well, I would sit down first, Congresswoman; I would try to back up and ask what the mission is, what are the objectives, what is the desired end state. With an understanding of that mission, then you can state what resources are required. Mrs. TAUSCHER. General, if the mission is to maintain the secu- rity gains as best we have made during the surge, but to bring our troops home so that they can rest, retrain and be redeployable, and we can fix our readiness problem and cut the amount of money that we are spending in Iraq, which is $600 billion now going to well over $1 trillion in the future, what would your response be? General PETRAEUS. My response would be dialogue on what the risk would be again. And this about risk. At the end of the day, let me just state up front, I absolutely sup- port the principle of civilian control in the military. We are not self- employed in uniform. We take orders and we follow them. But what we want to do, of course, is to have dialogue within the chain of command about what the mission is, what the desired end state is, the objectives and so forth; then be able to provide the assess- ment of a commander on the ground of what we believe are the re- sources required. If they are less than that, you know, this is the risk to various elements; and then it is up to other folks to deter- mine where they want to take the risk. But again, as I stated, I fully believe in, subscribe to and have sworn an oath to the Constitution and the concept of civilian con- trol in the military. Mrs. TAUSCHER. Ambassador Crocker, considering that we will have a new President on January 20th and our President could say that they want to have you give them an assessment, for example, on how we spread the risk, how we spread the risk away from the American people and our military, who in the region could step up, who around the world could step up to help stabilize the Iraq Gov- ernment and their security situation in lieu of our departure? What would you advise the President as to who could be avail- able and how we would begin that engagement? Ambassador CROCKER. Well, again Congresswoman that is look- ing fairly far into the future, and I have learned to keep my timelines pretty short when I am predicting things to do with Iraq. I would anticipate it would be a briefing on the efforts that are under way. I described, for example, the efforts we have made to have the United Nations more actively engaged in Iraq; they are. Our efforts with the international community, more broadly; again, it is noteworthy, I think, that Sweden is hosting this upcom- ing ministerial on the international compact with Iraq. It is the 46 first time that a European state has stepped forward that was not a member of the Coalition, so, you know, we are trying to broaden there. And we have constant efforts under way in the region that, frankly, I wish had been a little more successful, but we will keep at it. And I think what I would probably be doing is providing an update on these sorts of things. Mrs. TAUSCHER. Thank you, Mr. Chairman. . The CHAIRMAN. Mr. Hayes Mr. HAYES. Thank you, Mr. Chairman. And, gentlemen, thank you for being here. Please convey our gratitude and incredible appreciation to the men and women with whom you serve. Three questions: Number one, the Anbar model is obviously working, it would appear, for a number of reasons, mainly because tribal leaders are working with elected leaders and our military of- ficials to come up with a plan that cooperates and works. If you would, comment on that. Number two, elected leaders and tribal leaders are the ones that can provide this timeline that everybody talks about. What do you see happening? How do we precipitate, how do we cause that to happen so that the Iraqis say, We are going to be ready by this date? Immediately then you can come up with a timeline that we need. And last, in the south, very significant, the Basra situation, you have Iraqi Shi'a battling Iranian-influenced Shi’a who are Moqtada al-Sadr. How do we work that out; and if you will, just kind of ex- plain the dynamic of that? Because with Maliki taking on al-Sadr, that is pushing back on Iran, and people need to know about that. And the last comment: David Walker sat where you are sitting and said the benchmarks we have for Iraq are not the right ones. So the benchmarks of Iraqi spending money of their own on us, helping to fight the war against the terrorists, is very significant in the benchmark area. Thank you. General PETRAEUS. Congressman, if I could take the first and third and the Ambassador will take the second and the fourth. The Anbar model is a model that we have tried to apply else- where. It is a model that certainly works in an area that is almost exclusively Sunni Arab,with substantial tribal influence, and an area in which al Qaeda very clearly overplayed its hand, where again the population was devastated by what al Qaeda did to them in terms of violence, in terms of these oppressive practices that they implemented, not to mention the ideology to which they sub- scribe, which the people of the Euphrates River valley didn't em- brace. There were reasons why they were willing to support al Qaeda having to do with a variety of actions early on, feelings of dis- possession, disrespect and the like. But over time they came to re- alize what al Qaeda had done to their river valley, done to busi- ness, done to basic services and so forth, and chose to reject it; and because, again, of the relative cohesion of the population and the tribal structures were able to use that, and they were able to use it to cobble together a fairly coherent response to al Qaeda. 47 We are applying that where we can. Again, the circumstances there are fairly unique so you have to adapt it to each area. And when you have a place where there are sectarian or ethnic dif- ferences, say, in Diyala Province or Ninawa, it is a bit more sen- sitive and you have got to be a little bit more skillful in your appli- cation perhaps, or just different in your application, because those in Anbar demonstrated enormous skill. With respect to Basra, again as the Ambassador mentioned ear- lier, this is, in our view, truly a decision by a prime minister to take on elements that were very much threatening the peace, rule of law, good order and so forth in Basra, that were carrying out acts of intimidation, including murder and so forth, and not just- it wasn't a purely politically inspired activity. It does happen that some of the most lethal elements associated with that militia, the so-called “special groups,” are in fact backed by Iran or trained, equipped and funded by them. So again this was a fairly courageous decision. It was a fairly sudden decision. It was one that came after some months of pre- paring a more deliberate approach and is still very much playing out. It is far too soon to say that Basra has succeeded, or has failed either. It is safe to say that Basra is going to continue for months actually, and it is a tough nut to crack. But the fact is that the Prime Minister has taken it on and his forces are grappling with that particular issue. Ambassador CROCKER. Congressman, on the role of elected and tribal leaders, Iraqis, both Iraqi leaders and the Iraqi population at large, want to be in a position of taking charge of their own country and their own security. It is not a situation in which they are really all saying, well, let the Americans do it. And again, the Basra operation reflects that sentiment, that they should be able to do things for themselves. So I think clearly Iraqis are moving in that direction. But just as we look at conditions rather than timelines, so do thoughtful Iraqis. One thing that will be important are the provin- cial elections because you mentioned tribal and elected leaders. Many tribal leaders and their followers sat out the last election and are therefore not represented in government. They are not going to make that mistake this time; they have been very clear on that. So these elections are going to be important to kind of recalibrate through the voting booths who Iraq's leaders are at the provincial level. With regard to the benchmarks, the benchmarks have impor- tance. We track them, and as I undertook to Congressman McIn- tyre, we will provide our assessment of where they are. But what they don't do, and as your suggestion implies, they simply don't tell the whole story. And it is important to focus on a number of other things. A key element is that which you mentioned, the ability of Iraq to spend its own funds on its own reconstruction and development, and we place a very high emphasis on that even though it is not a benchmark. The CHAIRMAN. I thank the gentleman. Mr. Andrews from New Jersey. Mr. ANDREWS. I thank the chairman. 48 I thank the witnesses for their service to our country. Please thank the people you represent as well. We are very grateful. Ambassador Crocker, the words I hear, “talk about transition to Iraqis running Iraq.” But the substance I see looks more to me like an indefinite American occupation of Iraq. I want to ask you some questions about that. A significant though not exclusive source of the hostilities in Iraq are Sunni resistors who do not want to live in a country that is 61 percent Shiite. Iraq is a country where who controls the guns and the money and the power is going to be very, very important. When you were here in September, the essential argument you made to the American people was that General Petraeus and his forces would do their very best to tamp down the violence—and they have, and we thank them for that—and that the Iraqi politi- cians would then take advantage of that hiatus and do the best they could to reach political reconciliation. They have not. Let's first talk about sharing of power with the provinces, par- ticularly those that are majority Sunni. There have not been pro- vincial elections yet, have there? Ambassador CROCKER. There have been provincial elections, one round, in which many Sunnis boycotted. The next elections will be this fall. Mr. ANDREWS. But there have not been meaningful provincial elections that vested real power in the provincial government. Would you agree with that? Ambassador CROCKER. Actually, Congressman, the provincial governments do have significant power. That has now been codified in the Provincial Powers Law that was just passed by the par- liament. The most important power they have is the access to re- Mr. ANDREWS. Let's talk about resources. At this point in time, the most important economic resource in Iraq is oil revenues. The Iraqi parliament has not passed a hydrocarbon law since Sep- tember, has it? Ambassador CROCKER. No, it has not. Mr. ANDREWS. And, finally, a very important thing is control of the military and the Interior Ministry, the police. Now there was a deBaathification law passed by the Iraqi parliament and enacted into law. But it is my understanding that the terms of that statute say that former members of the Baathist party may not work in the military and may not work in the Interior of Ministry. Is that correct? Ambassador CROCKER. The most senior levels of the Baath party. Mr. ANDREWS. Aren't the people at the most senior levels the one whose participation in political negotiations is the most important? Ambassador CROCKER. As I said in my testimony, Congressman, the implementation of these laws, this one, as well as the others, is going to be of key importance. I would note though—and we are still awaiting that-but I would note that these laws were passed in a new spirit of reconciliation that we would expect to see also inform the implementation of these. Mr. ANDREWS. I do understand that. I do understand that there is a new spirit of reconciliation. But the argument that was made by you in September was that a reduction in violence would create sources. 49 the opportunity for a period of real political reconciliation. And that was the rationale of the so-called surge. Now the record shows that there was a deBaathification law. But as you just said, key members, former members of the party, can't work in the defense or Interior Ministry, which means they have no access to the guns. There have been some provincial statutes passed. But the meaningful elections, by my judgment, have not oc- curred, and we hear it will occur by October 1st. We have heard that for a very long time. Perhaps the most important thing, which is the money, the hydrocarbon law has not been passed. Now I am not meaning to say here that not doing all those things since September is a mark of abject failure. But, my good- ness, not doing them since April of 2003 sure looks like that. The war didn't begin in September. As far as the American people are concerned, it was April of 2003 when Saddam fell, and the forces of which General Petraeus participated did such a great job in making that happen. It is now five years. No hydrocarbon law, no meaningful distribu- tion to the provinces, no deBaathification law. Why should the American people wait five more minutes for that to happen? Ambassador CROCKER. Congressman, while there is no hydro- carbon law and revenue-sharing law, in fact revenues are being shared to the provinces. This process is ongoing. It is seen as equi- table both in predominantly Sunni and predominantly Shi’a prov- inces. The provinces have resources because the oil revenues are in fact being shared. That I think is the important indicator. You talked about Sunni resistors not wanting to be part of the Shi’a majority country. Well, in fact as we have seen in Anbar, Baghdad, and elsewhere, the Sunnis have decided they don't want to have anything to do with al Qaeda and its supporters. They took a very courageous stand against them. That actually triggered a broader reconciliation process. Mr. ANDREWS. My time has expired. I will quickly say that not having anything to do with al Qaeda is one thing, wanting to have something to do with the new government is quite another. The CHAIRMAN. I thank the gentleman. The gentleman from Virginia, Mr. Forbes. Mr. FORBES. Thank you, Mr. Chairman. General, Ambassador, thank you so much for being here. The question I am going to ask you, you might not be able to an- swer. I just haven't found who could articulate this answer best. So I am going to try it on the two of you. Let me set it up by saying how much I appreciate what both of you do. The chairman and I had the privilege of spending Christ- mas Eve with both of you in Iraq this year. We thank you for that opportunity. I know you mentioned yesterday you thought your men and women that were serving there were America's newest Greatest Generation. That is certainly true. All the people we talked to, not one exception, they believed in what you are doing. I get frustrated sometimes, too, when I see charts coming up that suggest $1 trillion over the next 10 years. But I don't see a chart that talks about the fact that just the deficits we will have on So- cial Security and Medicare will be 53 times that amount. We talked about borrowing money. We just borrowed $168 billion to give to 51 The CHAIRMAN. Thank you. We will have to close this hearing at 12:30 for the staff to prepare for the 1 hearing that we have sched- uled. We will do our best to get as many in between now and then. General, we thank you for your patience with us. Ms. Davis. Mrs. DAVIS OF CALIFORNIA. Thank you, Mr. Chairman. Thank you to you, General, Mr. Ambassador, and really to all the men and women who are sacrificing along with you today. I wanted to just ask you for a minute about the Status of Forces Agreement (SOFA). Mr. Ambassador, you referenced that in your remarks, and I know also at the Senate hearing yesterday it was mentioned, and that the Iraqi Parliament would have an oppor- tunity to vote, as I understand it, on the Status of Forces Agree- ment negotiated by the executive branch and the government of Iraq, while the United States Congress would not. That strikes peo- ple in our districts as strange. I wonder if you could please com- ment on that. Why would we not have a say in that as being pro- posed? I wonder if you could also talk about how it is being used as le- verage in moving us to the outcomes that we are looking to in mov- ing our troops out of Iraq. Ambassador CROCKER. It is our intention to negotiate the Status of Forces Agreement basically as we have done with some 80 other similar agreements with different countries. Each one of those agreements has both its unique aspects and also broadly similar stipulations as well that are shared among the agreements. This one will have as its unique aspects the authorities and pro- tections that our forces would need to continue operations after the end of the year. But it is our intention that this will be negotiated as an executive agreement, as all the other SOFAs are. We have had only one SOFA, and that is with NATO, that has risen to the level of requiring Senate advice and consent because it does have explicit security commitments in it. We do not intend for this Status of Forces Agreement to rise to that level. So it will not trigger the treaty ratification process. Iraq has its own system, and I would say at this point it is not clear exactly how that will play out, whether this agreement would actu- ally go to the Council of Representatives for a vote or whether it would simply be read to the Council of Representatives. We will handle this certainly within the context of our own system. Mrs. DAVIS OF CALIFORNIA. Do you see this as a vehicle for lever- age that would actually bring about a result that would not occur were it not for the agreement? Can you think of an instance in which that is true, and are we using that leverage appropriately? Ambassador CROCKER. I am sorry, ma'am. Could you repeat that? Mrs. DAVIS OF CALIFORNIA. I am interested in knowing how we would use that Status of Forces Agreement for leverage; that some Iraqi actions have to take place in order for us to move forward with that kind of an agreement that would provide the kind of se- curity that they are looking for. Ambassador CROCKER. Well, I think, like other agreements, it is a question of mutual interest. We both have interests in this proc- ess in ensuring that our forces do have the authorities after the ex- 52 piration of the Security Council Resolution to continue operations. So it is not a question I think so much of having something to give to them that we should expect payment, as it were, for. I think it is simply moving our relations to a more normal level while still ensuring that we have got the authorities we need. I think that is the benefit in it for us. Mrs. DAVIS OF CALIFORNIA. I think that people would look at this, and perhaps it is another way of explaining it, but this is a unique situation that we are in. † think that the public believes that there is some role that we should be playing to at least be a greater part on consultation on that agreement. I wonder, just very quickly, going back to the Awakening Coun- cils, because I think that we have had an opportunity to look at that as a very positive force. You can interpret it that way, but I think others are concerned that the 80 percent or so of individuals that are not going to be included in either the army or the police, that that perhaps marriage of convenience that has occurred is going to shift back and that we are not developing the kind of stra- tegic security there that we need. Is that a great concern to you? Ambassador CROCKER. Actually, Congresswoman, we have had that discussion with the prime minister and other senior officials. Twenty to thirty percent, as you say, should be integrated into the security forces. The prime minister is committed to ensuring that the remainder receive employment in the civilian sector, is com- mitted to job training programs and employment opportunity. So the intention is that, over time, all of these individuals will be receiving gainful employment, just not all of them in the secu- rity field. The CHAIRMAN. I thank the gentlelady. Mr. Wilson. Mr. WILSON. Thank you, Mr. Chairman. General, Ambassador, thank you very much for your service. It is with heartfelt thanks that I have for our service members and the civilians who are serving in Iraq and the region protecting American families. I say this as a veteran of 31 years in the Army Guard, as the parent of four sons who serve in the military, and as a grandparent. I am particularly grateful—my oldest son served for a year in Iraq. I am so grateful for him. This weekend, he and his wife Jennifer will have their first son. Michael McCrory Wilson will be born this weekend. dditionally, when I visited with you last month, I had the privi- lege of visiting with my son who is a doctor in the Navy. He arrived back home with his three children under five on Easter evening. So it has been an extraordinary time for our family. Our family un- derstands the best way to protect American families is to beat the terrorists oversees. The best way to win the war is to have victory, and not bring the war home. So I really appreciate, again, what you are doing. I believe the enemy have a clear plan. And I really refer to Zawahiri, the al Qaeda spokesman for Osama bin Laden, on July 9, 2005, came up with the plan: The first stage, expel the Americans from Iraq. The second stage, establish authority in Iraq. The third stage, extend the jihad waive to the secular countries neighboring Iraq. That would mean Saudi Arabia. It would mean Turkey. It would mean 53 can. Egypt. It would mean the Persian Gulf states of Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait, United Arab Emirates (UAE), Dubai. And then the fourth stage, the clash with Israel, that is the extermination of the people of Israel. Now if al Qaeda achieves their goals, it is my view that they would, after the extermination of the people of Israel, after the con- quest of the region, will they attack America again, or will they be satisfied with the fruits of what they have stolen? Ambassador CROCKER. Congressman, that is exactly why a base in Iraq is so important to al Qaeda, to be, as I said, and as you have just quoted from Zawahiri, a base in the Arab world. The re- establishment of the caliphate, according to their ideology, is an es- sential goal. I spent a lot of time thinking about al Qaeda. I was in Pakistan for two-and-a-half years. That is where I first had the pleasure of meeting you. It is my judgment that al Qaeda will seek the space and find the opportunity to strike again after us, if they possibly So while I would not disagree with Zawahiri's analysis, I would not be confident that al Qaeda would take it in phases. I think once they have, if they can get a secure base, I would assume that they are going to use that to plan attacks in different spheres. They may not go from A to B to C to strike at us. We could come right after A. That is why it is so essential to see that they do not reestablish themselves in Iran. Mr. WILSON. Additionally, a statement I would like to make is, we have a radio talk show host at home who is extremely articu- late, who is very supportive of you, General Petraeus; of you, Am- bassador Crocker. His name is Keven Cohen. He has stated that every day that there's not an attack on the United States is a day of success. So I want to thank you for the days, years of success that we have had. I believe it is because of the commitment of the Amer- ican men and women, military and civilian, who have put their lives on the line. I have visited in the region 10 times now. Every time I go, I am so encouraged by the young people I meet, of all ranks, who are very supportive of our efforts to protect American families by defeating the terrorists oversees. just want to thank you so much for what both of you and your personnel have done for our country. God bless you. Ambassador CROCKER. Thank you, sir. The CHAIRMAN. Thank you very much. We will have to close our hearing out. We will begin the i hearing with Mr. Marshall and proceed from there on with those that did not have the opportunity to ask questions at this hearing. Gentlemen, we thank you for your testimony, we thank you for your service. We appreciate it. We appreciate your leadership, and those fine young people that serve under you. Thank you, again. [Whereupon, at 12:33 p.m., the committee was adjourned.] A P P E N D I X APRIL 9, 2008 PREPARED STATEMENTS SUBMITTED FOR THE RECORD APRIL 9, 2008 Report to Congress on the Situation in Iraq General David H. Petraeus Commander, Multi-National Force-Iraq 8-9 April 2008 Mr. Chairman, Ranking Member, Members of the Committee, thank you for the opportunity to provide an update on the security situation in Iraq and to discuss the recommendations I recently provided to my chain of command. Since Ambassador Crocker and I appeared before you seven months ago, there has been significant but uneven security progress in Iraq. Since September, levels of violence and civilian deaths have been reduced substantially, Al Qaeda-Iraq and a number of other extremist elements have been dealt serious blows, the capabilities of Iraqi Security Force elements have grown, and there has been noteworthy involvement of local Iraqis in local security. Nonetheless, the situation in certain areas is still unsatisfactory and innumerable challenges remain. Moreover, as events in the past two weeks have reminded us and as I have repeatedly cautioned, the progress made since last spring is fragile and reversible. Still, security in Iraq is better than it was when Ambassador Crocker and I reported to you last September, and it is significantly better than it was 15 months ago when Iraq was on the brink of civil war and the decision was made to deploy additional US forces to Iraq. A number of factors have contributed to the progress that has been made. First, of course, has been the impact of increased numbers of Coalition and Iraqi Forces. You are well aware of the U.S. surge. Less recognized is that Iraq has also conducted a surgè, adding well over 100.000 additional soldiers and police to the ranks of its security forces in 2007 and slowly increasing its capability to deploy and employ these forces. A second factor has been the employment of Coalition and Iraqi Forces in the conduct counterinsurgency operations across the country, deployed together to safeguard the Iraqi people, to pursue Al Qaeda-Iraq, to combat criminals and militia extremists, to foster local reconciliation, and to enable political and economic progress. Another important factor has been the attitudinal shift among certain elements of the Iraqi population. Since the first Sunni "Awakening" in late 2006, Sunni communities in Iraq increasingly have rejected AQI's indiscriminate violence and extremist ideology. These communities also recognized that they could not share in Iraq's bounty if they didn't participate in the political arena. Over time, Awakenings have prompted tens of thousands of Iraqis-some, former insurgents—to contribute to local security as so-called “Sons of Iraq.” With their assistance and with relentless pursuit of Al Qaeda-Iraq, the threat posed by AQI—while still lethal and substantial has been reduced significantly. The recent flare-up in Basrah, southern Iraq, and Baghdad underscored the importance of the ceasefire declared by Megtada al-Sadr last fall as another factor in the overall reduction in violence. Recently, of course, some militia elements became active again. Though a Sadr stand- down order resolved the situation to a degree, the flare-up also highlighted the destructive role Iran has played in funding, training, arming, and directing the so-called Special Groups and generated renewed concem about Iran in the minds of many Iraqi leaders. Unchecked, the Special Groups pose the greatest long-term threat to the viability of a democratic Iraq. 1 (59) 60 As we look to the future, our task together with our Iraqi partners will be to build on the progress achieved and to deal with the many challenges that remain. I do believe that we can do this while continuing the ongoing drawdown of the surge forces. The Nature of the Conflict In September, I described the fundamental nature of the conflict in Iraq as a competition among ethnic and sectarian communities for power and resources. This competition continues, influenced heavily by outside actors, and its resolution remains the key to producing long-term stability in Iraq. Various elements push Iraq's ethno-sectarian competition toward violence. Terrorists, insurgents, militia extremists, and criminal gangs pose significant threats. Al Qaeda's senior leaders, who still view Iraq as the central front in their global strategy, send funding, direction, and foreign fighters to Iraq. Actions by neighboring states compound Iraq's challenges. Syria has taken some steps to reduce the flow of foreign fighters through its territory, but not enough to shut down the key network that supports AQI. And Iran has fueled the violence in a particularly damaging way, through its lethal support to the Special Groups. Finally, insufficient Iraqi governmental capacity, lingering sectarian mistrust, and corruption add to Iraq's problems. These challenges and recent weeks' violence notwithstanding, Iraq's ethno-sectarian competition in many areas is now taking place more through debate and less through violence. In fact, the recent escalation of violence in Baghdad and southern Iraq was dealt with temporarily, at least, by most parties acknowledging that the rational way ahead is political dialogue rather than street fighting Current Situation and Trends As I stated at the outset, though Iraq obviously remains a violent country, we do see progress in the security arena. As this chart (Slide 1] illustrates, for nearly six months, security incidents have been at a level not seen since early-to-mid-2005, though the level did spike in recent weeks as a result of the violence in Basrah and Baghdad. The level of incidents has, however, begun to turn down again, though the period ahead will be a sensitive one, As our primary mission is to help protect the population, we closely monitor the number of Iraqi civilians killed due to violence. As this chart (Slide 2) reflects, civilian deaths have decreased over the past year to a level not seen since the February 2006 Samarra Mosque bombing that set off the cycle of sectarian violence that tore the very fabric of Iraqi society in 2006 and early 2007. This chart also reflects our increasing use of Iraqi-provided reports, with the top line reflecting Coalition and Iraqi data and the bottom line reflecting Coalition-confirmed data only. No matter which data is used, civilian deaths due to violence have been reduced significantly, though more work clearly needs to be done. Ethno-sectarian violence is a particular concern in Iraq, as it is a cancer that continues to spread if left unchecked. As the box on the bottom left of this chart (Slide 3] shows, the number of deaths due to ethno-sectarian violence has fallen since we testified last September. A big factor has been the reduction of ethno-sectarian violence in Baghdad, density plots for which are shown 2 61 in the boxes depicting Iraq's capital over time. Some of this decrease is, to be sure, due to sectarian hardening of certain Baghdad neighborhoods; however, that is only a partial explanation as countless sectarian fault lines and numerous mixed neighborhoods still exist in Baghdad and elsewhere. In fact, Coalition and Iraqi Forces have focused along the fault lines to reduce the violence and enable Sunni and Shia leaders to begin the long process of healing in their local communities. As this next chart (Slide 4) shows, even though the number of high profile attacks increased in March as AQI lashed out, the current level of such attacks remains far below its height a year ago. Moreover, as we have helped improve security and focused on enemy networks, we have seen a decrease in the effectiveness of such attacks. The number of deaths due to ethno-sectarian violence, in particular, has remained relatively low, illustrating the enemy's inability to date to re-ignite the cycle of ethno-sectarian violence. The emergence of Iraqi volunteers helping to secure their local communities has been an important development. As this chart (Slide 5) depicts, there are now over 91,000 Sons of Iraq-Shia as well as Sunni—under contract to help Coalition and Iraqi Forces protect their neighborhoods and secure infrastructure and roads. These volunteers have contributed significantly in various areas, and the savings in vehicles not lost because of reduced violence not to mention the priceless lives saved—have far outweighed the cost of their monthly contracts. Sons of Iraq have also contributed to the discovery of improvised explosive devices and weapons and explosives.caches. As this next chart (Slide 6] shows, in fact, we have already found more caches in 2008 than we found in all of 2006. Given the importance of the Sons of Iraq, we are working closely with the Iraqi Government to transition them into the Iraqi Security Forces or other forms of employment, and over 21,000 have already been accepted into the Police or Army or other government jobs. This process has been slow, but it is taking place, and we will continue to monitor it carefully. Al Qaeda also recognizes the significance of the Sons of Iraq, and AQI elements have targeted them repeatedly. However, these attacks in addition to AQI's use of women, children, and the handicapped as suicide bombers—have further alienated AQI from the Iraqi people. And the tenacious pursuit of AQI, together with AQI's loss of local support in many areas, has substantially reduced its capability, numbers, and freedom of movement. This chart (Slide 7] displays the cumulative effect of the effort against AQI and its insurgent allies. As you can see, we have reduced considerably the areas in which AQI enjoys support and sanctuary, though there clearly is more to be done. Having noted that progress, AQI is still capable of lethal attacks, and we must maintain relentless pressure on the organization, on the networks outside Iraq that support it, and on the resource flows that sustain it. This chart (Slide 8) lays out the comprehensive strategy that we, the Iraqis, and our interagency and international partners are employing to reduce what AQI needs. As you can see, defeating Al Qaeda in Iraq requires not just actions by our elite counter-terrorist forces, but also major operations by Coalition and Iraqi conventional forces, a sophisticated intelligence effort, political reconciliation, economic and social programs, information operations initiatives, diplomatic activity, the employment of counterinsurgency principles in detainee operations, and many other actions. Related to this effort, I applaud Congress' support for additional intelligence, 3 62 surveillance, and reconnaissance assets in the upcoming Supplemental, as ISR is vital to the success of our operations in Iraq and elsewhere. As we combat AQI, we must remember that doing so not only reduces a major source of instability in Iraq; it also weakens an organization that Al Qaeda's senior leaders view as a tool to spread its influence and foment regional instability. Usama bin Ladin and Ayman al-Zawahiri have consistently advocated exploiting the situation in Iraq, and we have also seen AQI involved in destabilizing activities in the wider Mid-east region. Together with the Iraqi Security Forces, we have also focused on the Special Groups. These elements are funded, trained, armed, and directed by Iran's Qods Force, with help from Lebanese Hezbollah. It was these groups that launched Iranian rockets and mortar rounds at Iraq's seat of government two weeks ago, causing loss of innocent life and fear in the capital, and requiring Iraqi and Coalition actions in response. Iraqi and Coalition leaders have repeatedly noted their desire that Iran live up to promises made by President Ahmedinajad and other senior Iranian leaders to stop their support for the Special Groups. However, nefarious activities by the Gods Force have continued, and Iraqi leaders now clearly recognize the threat they pose to Iraq. We should all watch Iranian actions closely in the weeks and months ahead, as they will show the kind of relationship Iran wishes to have with its neighbor and the character of future Iranian involvement in Iraq, Iragi Security Forces The Iraqi Security Forces have continued to develop since September, and we have transferred responsibilities to Iraqi Forces as their capabilities and the conditions on the ground have permitted. Currently, as this chart (Slide 9) shows, half of Iraq's 18 provinces are under provincial Iraqi control. Many of these provinces--not just the successful provinces in the Kurdish Regional Government area, but also a number of southern provinces have done well. Challenges have emerged in some others, including, of course, Basrah. Nonetheless, this process will continue, and we expect Anbar and Qadisiyah Provinces to transition in the months ahead. Iraqi Forces have grown significantly since September, and over 540.000 individuals now serve in the Iraqi Security forces. The number of combat battalions capable of taking the lead in Operations, albeit with some Coalition support, has grown to well over 100 (Slide 10]. These units are bearing an increasing share of the burden, as evidenced by the fact that Iraqi Security Force losses have recently been three times our own. We will, of course, conduct careful after action reviews with our Iraqi partners in the wake of recent operations, as there were units and leaders found wanting in some cases, and some of our assessments may be downgraded as a result. Nonetheless, the performance of many units was solid, especially once they got their footing and gained a degree of confidence, and certain Iraqi elements proved quite capable. Underpinning the advances of the past year have been improvements in Iraq's security institutions. An increasingly robust Iraqi-run training base enabled the Iraqi Security Forces to grow by over 133,000 soldiers and police over the past 16 months. And the still-expanding training base is expected to generate an additional 50,000 Iraqi soldiers and 16 Army and Special Operations battalions throughout the rest of 2008, along with over 23,000 police and 8 National Police battalions. 4 63 Additionally, Iraq's security ministries are steadily improving their ability to execute their budgets. As this chart [Slide 11) shows, in 2007, as in 2006, Iraq's security ministries spent more on their forces than the United States provided through the Iraqi Security Forces Fund (ISFF). We anticipate that Iraq will spend over $8 billion on security this year and $11 billion next year, and this projection enabled us recently to reduce significantly our Iraqi Security Forces Fund request for fiscal year 2009 from $5.1 billion to $2.8 billion. While improved, Iraqi Security forces are not yet ready to defend Iraq or maintain security throughout the country on their own. Recent operations in Basrah highlight improvements in the ability of the Iraqi Security Forces to deploy substantial numbers of units, supplies, and replacements on very short notice; they certainly could not have deployed a division's worth of Army and Police units on such short notice a year ago. On the other hand, the recent operations also underscored the considerable work still to be done in the areas of logistics, force enablers, staff development, and command and control. We also continue to help Iraq through the U.S. Foreign Military Sales program. As of March 2008, the Iraqi government has purchased over $2 billion worth of equipment and services of American origin through FMS. Since September, and with your encouragement of the organizations in the FMS process, delivery has improved as the EMS system has strived to support urgent wartime requirements. On a related note, I would ask that Congress consider restoring funding for the International Military Education and Training Program, which supports education for mid- and senior-level Iraqi military and civilian leaders and is an important component of the development of the leaders Iraq will need in the future. Upcoming Challenges While security has improved in many areas and the Iraqi Security Forces are shouldering more of the load, the situation in Iraq remains exceedingly complex and challenging. Iraq could face a resurgence of AQI or additional Shia groups could violate Moqtada al-Sadr's cease-fire order and return to violence. External actors, like Iran, could stoke violence within Traq, and actions by other neighbors could undermine the security situation as well. Other challenges result, paradoxically, from improved security, which has provided opportunities for political and economic progress and improved services at the local, provincial, and national levels. But the improvements have also created expectations that progress will continue. In the coming months, Iraq's leaders must strengthen governmental capacity, execute budgets, pass additional legislation, conduct provincial elections, carry out a census, determine the status of disputed territories, and resettle internally displaced persons and refugees. These tasks would challenge any government, much less a still developing government tested by war. The Commander's Emergency Response Program, the State Department's Quick Response Fund, and USAD programs enable us to help Iraq deal with its challenges. To that end,+ respectfully ask that you provide us by June the additional CERP funds requested in the Supplemental. These funds have an enormous impact. As I noted earlier, the salaries paid to the Sons of Iraq alone cost far less than the cost savings in vehicles not lost due to the enhanced security in local communities. Encouragingly, the Iraqi government recently allocated $300 million for us to manage as “Iraqi CERP" to perform projects for their people, while building their own capacity to do so. The Iraqi government has also committed $163 million to gradually assume Sons of Iraq contracts, $510 million for small business loans, and $196 million for a 5 64 Joint Training, Education, and Reintegration Program. The Iraqi government pledges to provide more as they execute the budget passed two months ago. Nonetheless, it is hugely important to have our resources continue, even as Iraqi funding begins to outstrip ours. Recommendations Last month I provided my chain of command recommendations for the way ahead in Iraq. During that process, I noted the objective of retaining and building on our hard-fought security gains while we draw down to the pre-surge level of 15 brigade combat teams. I emphasized the need to continue work with our Iraqi partners to secure the population and to transition responsibilities to the Iraqis as quickly as conditions permit, but without jeopardizing the security gains that have been made. . As in September, my recommendations are informed by operational and strategic considerations. The operational considerations include recognition that: • the military surge has achieved progress, but that the progress is reversible; • Iraqi Security Forces have strengthened their capabilities but still must grow further; the provincial elections in the fall, refugee returns, detainee releases, and efforts to resolve provincial boundary disputes and Article 140 issues will be very challenging; • the transition of Sons of Iraq into the Iraqi Security Forces or other pursuits will require time and careful monitoring; • withdrawing too many forces too quickly could jeopardize the progress of the past year; and • performing the necessary tasks in Iraq will require sizable conventional forces as well as special operations forces and advisor teams. The strategic considerations include recognition that: • the strain on the US military, especially on its ground forces, has been considerable; a number of the security challenges inside Iraq are also related to significant regional and global threats; and a failed state in Iraq would pose serious consequences for the greater fight against Al Qaeda, for regional stability, for the already existing humanitarian crisis in Iraq, and for the effort to counter malign Iranian influence. After weighing these factors, I recommended to my chain of command that we continue the drawdown of the surge combat forces and that, upon the withdrawal of the last surge brigade combat team in July, we undertake a 45-day period of consolidation and evaluation. At the end of that period, we will commence a process of assessment to examine the conditions on the ground and, over time, determine when we can make recommendations for further reductions. This process will be continuous, with recommendations for further reductions made as conditions permit. This approach does not allow establishment of a set withdrawal timetable; however, it does provide the flexibility those of us on the ground need to preserve the still fragile security gains our troopers have fought so hard and sacrificed so much to achieve. With this approach, the security achievements of 2007 and early 2008 can form a foundation for the gradual establishment of sustainable security in Iraq. This is not only important to the 27 million citizens of Iraq; it is also vitally important to those in the Gulf region, to the citizens of the United States, and to the global community. It clearly is in our national interest to help Iraq prevent the resurgence of Al Qaeda in the heart of the Arab world, to help Iraq resist Iranian 6 99 Multi-National Force-Iraq Charts to accompany the testimony of GEN David H. Petraeus 8-9 April 2008 67 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 Fo-150-1 FO-100-62 30 January 2005 Iraqi elections, 26-Nov-14 24-Dec-04 21-Jan-05 18-Feb-05 18-Mar-05 15-Apr-05 13-May-05 10-Jun-05 8-41-05 1.5-Aug-25 2-Sep-05 30-Sep-05 28-Oct-05 26-Nov-15 23-Dec-05 20-Jan-06 15 October 2005 referendum, Constitutional Mortar, Rocket and Surface-to-Air Attacks Sniper, Ambush. Grenade and Other Small Arms Attacks Bombs (IEDs and Mines), Both Found and Exploded Attacks Against Iraqi Infrastructure and Government Facilities 15 December 2005 elections, Parliamentary 90-4ad 13-Mar-06 14-Apr-Os 12-May-06 22 February 2006 bombing, Samarra mosque 90-46 Weekly Security Incidents 13SEP-130CTOT 24SEP-23OCTO6 05OCT-04NOVOS 160CT-14NOV04 Ramadan 7-Jul-06 4-Aug-06 .1-Sep-06 29-Sep-06 27-Oct-06 24-Nov-06 22-Dec-06 19-Jan-07 16-Feb-o? 16-Mar-07 13-Apr-07 11-May-c? 8-Jun-0? 6-Jul-07 3-Aug-07 31-Aug-07 28-Sep-07 26-Oct-07 23-Nov-O? 21-Dec-o? 18-Jan-18 15 February 2007 Fardh al-Qanoon, 80-90+91 80-7-rt 70 20 40 09 08 100 120 140 0 May-06 Jun-06 Jul-06 Aug-06 Sep-06 Oct-06 Nov-06 Dec-06 Jan-07 Feb-07 Mar-07 High Profile Attacks (Explosions) Apr-07 May-07 Jun-07 Jul-07 Aug-07 Sep-07 Oct-07 Nov-07 Dec-07 Total Suicide Vests em Suicide Car Bombs Car Bombs Jan-08 Feb-08 Mar-08 72 100 50 150 200 250 0 9-Jan-04 19-Mar-04 28-May-04 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 to Date Year 6-Aug-04 15-Oct-04 24-Dec-04 367 4-Mar-05 1271 1213 3147 748 Anbar Iraq 2862 2660 6963 2837 13-May-05 22-Jul-05 1531 30-Sep-05 9-Dec-05 Caches Found and Cleared 17-Feb-06 28-Apr-06 7-Jul-06 15-Sep-06 24-Nov-06 2-Feb-07 13-Apr-07 22-Jun-07 31-Aug-07 I 9-Nov-07 18-Jan-08 28-Mar-08 74 Anaconda Strategy vs. AQI Work with Syria Strategic Source Countries Engagement Interagency Communications Border Ports of Entry Improvements Information Operations Kinetics AQI NEEDS Internet Counter-Terrorist Ae Senior Leader Force Ops Weapons Guidance Conventional Religious Money Force Ops Ansar Engagement AQI al sunnal Iraqi Conventional Foreign Command Education & Special Force Ops Fighters and Control Jobs Programs Groups Sons of Iraq Services Safe Ideology Havens Non-kinetics Popular Counter Ethno-Sectarian Support Pressures Counterinsurgency in Detention Facilities Tribal Awakenings Detainee Politics Intel, Surveillance Intel Fusion Releases Political Detainee and Recce Platforms Ops Reconciliation Armed Unmanned Intelligence 3 (Laws/policies) Aerial Vehicles 8 75 Provincial Iraqi Control Ninewa Ninewa FEB 07 MAR 08 Ta mim Sillavihaniyah Ta'mim Sulayıhaniyah Salah Ad Din Salah Ad) Din Diyala Diyala Baghdad Baghdad Anbar Wasit Wasit Karbala Babil Kerbela Babil Qadisiya WEBES An. Mater linna Muthanne au atharina Basra Transitioned Projected within 6 Months Projected Transfer Date Anbar Qadisiyah NOV 08 Wasit NOV 08 Babil DEC 08 Diyala DEC 08 Baghdad JAN 09 Salah Ad Din JAN 09 Ninewa TBD Ta'mim Partially Ready Not Ready 9 77 Iraq Security Forces Expenditures 12 10 Execution in Billions 2 0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 11 78 TESTIMONY OF AMBASSADOR RYAN C. CROCKER BEFORE THE HOUSE ARMED SERVICES COMMITTEE APRIL 9, 2008 79 Mr. Chairman, Congressman Hunter, and Members of the Committee: It is an honor to appear before you today to provide my assessment of political, economic and diplomatic developments in Iraq. When General Petraeus and I reported to you in September, I gave my considered judgment as to whether our goals in Iraq were attainable – can Iraq develop into a united, stable country with a democratically-elected government operating under the rule of law? Last September, I said that the cumulative trajectory of political, economic and diplomatic developments in Iraq was upwards, although the slope of that line was not steep. Developments over the last seven months have strengthened my sense of a positive trend. Immense challenges remain and progress is uneven and often frustratingly slow; but there is progress. Sustaining that progress will require continuing U.S. resolve and commitment. What has been achieved is substantial, but it is also reversible. Five years ago, the statue of Saddam Hussein was toppled in Baghdad. The euphoria of that moment evaporated long ago. But as Iraq emerges from the shattering violence of 2006 and the early part of 2007, there is reason to sustain that commitment and the enormous investments we have made both in the lives of our young brave men and women and our resources. Let me describe the developments upon which I base such a judgment. Reconciliation: National and Provincial Politics The first is at the national level in the form of legislation and the development of Iraq's parliament. In September, we were disappointed that Iraq had not yet enacted some key pieces of legislation. In the last several months, however, Iraq's parliament has 1 80 formulated, debated vigorously, and in many cases passed legislation dealing with vital issues of reconciliation and nation building. A pension law extended benefits to individuals who had previously been denied them because of their service under the former regime. The Accountability and Justice Law (de-Ba'athification reform), passed after lengthy and often contentious debate, reflects a strengthened spirit of reconciliation, as does a far-reaching Amnesty Law. The Provincial Powers Law is a major step forward in defining the relationship between the federal and provincial governments. Passage of this legislation required debate about the fundamental nature of the state, similar in its complexity to our own lengthy and difficult debate over states' rights. The Provincial Powers Law also called for provincial elections by October 1, 2008, and an Electoral Law is now under discussion that will set the parameters for elections. All major parties have announced their support for these elections, which will be a major step forward in Iraq's political development and will set the stage for national elections in late 2009, In January, a vote by the Council of Representatives to change the design of the Iraqi flag means the flag now flies in all parts of the country for the first time in years. The passage of the 2008 budget, with record amounts for capital expenditures, ensures that the federal and provincial governments will have the resources for public spending. All of this has been done since September. These laws are not perfect and much depends on their implementation, but they are important steps. 2 81 Also important has been the development of Iraq's Council of Representatives (CoR) as a national institution. Last summer, the CoR suffered from persistent and often paralyzing disputes over leadership and procedure. Now, it is successfully grappling with complex issues and producing viable tradeoffs and compromise packages. As debates in Iraq's parliament became more about how to resolve tough problems in a practical way, Iraqi politics have become more fluid. While politics still have a sectarian bent and basis, cross-sectarian coalitions have formed around issues, and sectarian political groupings which often were barriers to progress have become more flexible. Let me also talk about the intangibles: attitudes among the Iraqi people. In 2006 and 2007, many people understandably questioned whether hatred between Iraqis of different sectarian backgrounds was so deep that a civil war was inevitable. The Sunni Awakening movement in al-Anbar, which so courageously confronted al-Qa'ida, continues to keep the peace in the area and keep al-Qa'ida out. Fallujah, once a symbol for violence and terror, is now one of Iraq's safest cities. The Shi'a holy cities of Najaf and Karbala are enjoying security and growing prosperity in the wake of popular rejection of extremist militia activity. The Shi'a clerical leadership - the Marja'iyyah – based in Najaf – has played a quiet but important role in support of moderation and reconciliation. In Baghdad, we can see that Iraqis are not pitted against each other purely on the basis of sectarian affiliation. The security improvements of the past months have diminished the atmosphere of suspicion and allowed for acts of humanity that transcend sectarian identities. 3 85 be better protected. Iraqis are aware of the challenges they face, and are working on them. Iraq's political progress will not be linear. Developments which are on the whole positive can still have unanticipated or destabilizing consequences. The decision to hold provincial elections – vital for Iraq's democratic development and long-term stability - will also produce new strains. Some of the violence we have seen recently in southern Iraq reflects changing dynamics within the Shi’a community as the political and security context changes. Such inflection points underscore the fragility of the situation in Iraq, but it would be wrong to conclude that any eruption of violence marks the beginning of an inevitable backslide. Economics and Capacity Building In September, I reported to you that there had been some gains in Iraq's economy and in the country's efforts to build capacity to translate these gains into more effective governance and services. Iraqis have built on these gains over the past months, as is most evident in the revival of marketplaces across Iraq and the reopening of long-shuttered businesses. According to a Center for International Private Enterprise poll last month, 78 percent of Iraqi business owners surveyed expect the Iraqi economy to grow in the next two years. 7 86 With the improving security and rising government expenditures, the IMF projects that Iraq's GDP will grow 7 percent in real terms this year, and inflation has been tamed. The Dinar remains strong and the Central Bank has begun to bring down interest rates. Iraq's 2008 budget has allocated $13 billion for reconstruction, and a $5 billion supplemental budget this summer will further invest export revenues in building the infrastructure and providing the services that Iraq so badly needs. This spending also benefits the United States Iraq recently announced its decision to purchase 40 commercial aircraft from the U.S. at an estimated cost of $5 billion. As Iraq is now earning the financial resources it needs for bricks and mortar construction through oil production and export, our assistance focus has shifted to capacity development and an emphasis on local and post-kinetic development through our network of Provincial Reconstruction Teams (PRTs) and ministerial advisors. The era of U.S. funded major infrastructure projects is over. We are seeking to ensure that our assistance, in partnership with the Iraqis, leverages Iraq's own resources. Our 25 PRTs throughout Iraq have been working to improve provincial and local governance capabilities, particularly in budget design and execution. They are also helping to establish critical linkages between provincial and federal governments. Our PRTs are great enablers, and we are working to ensure their continued viability as our forces redeploy. The relatively small amounts they disburse through Quick Response Funds (QRF) have major impacts in local communities, and congressional support is important, as it is for other vital programs in the FY-08 Global War on Terror Supplemental request. 8! 87 Iraq increasingly is using its own resources to support projects and programs that we have developed. It has committed nearly $200 million in support of a program to provide vocational training for concerned local citizens who stood up with us in the Awakening. Our technical assistance advisers have helped design new procurement procedures for Iraq's Oil Ministry. We developed the technical specifications from which Iraq's state- owned oil company will build new oil export platforms and underwater pipelines worth over a billion dollars. And in Baghdad, in the last three months the municipality has stepped up to take over labor contracts worth $100 million that we had been covering under the Community Stabilization Program. Like so much else, Iraq's economy is fragile, the gains reversible and the challenges ahead substantial. Iraq will need to continue to improve governmental capacity, pass national-level hydrocarbon legislation, improve electrical production and distribution, improve the climate for foreign and domestic investment, create short- and long-term jobs and tackle the structural and economic problems of the vital agricultural sector. We will be helping the Iraqis as they take on this challenging agenda, along with other international partners including the United Nations and the World Bank. Regional and International Dynamics Along with the security surge last year, we also launched a diplomatic surge – focused on enhancing UN engagement in Iraq, anchoring the International Compact with Iraq, and 9 89 multi-ethnic state, but it is also a founding member of the Arab League and an integral part of the Arab world. Last month, Iraq hosted a meeting of the Arab Parliamentary Union, bringing the leaders of Arab parliaments and consultative councils to Iraq for the first major inter-Arab gathering since 1990. It is noteworthy that the meeting was held in the Kurdish city of Irbil, under the recently redesigned Iraqi flag, highlighting both the remarkable prosperity and stability of Iraq's Kurdish Region and the presence of the Iraqi federal state. We hope that this event will encourage more active Arab engagements with Iraq, and we expect that Prime Minister Maliki's effort against Shi'a extremist militias in Basrah will receive Arab support. The presence of the PKK terrorist organization in the remote mountains of Iraq along the Turkish border has produced tension between Turkey and Iraq, and led to a Turkish cross-border operation in February, including movement of Turkish ground forces into Iraq. At the same time, both governments are working to strengthen their ties, and Iraqi President Talabani made a successful visit to Turkey in March. Syria plays an ambivalent role. We have seen evidence of efforts to interdict some foreign fighters seeking to transit Syria to Iraq, but others continue to cross the boarder. Syria also harbors individuals who finance and support the Iraqi insurgency. Iran continues to undermine the efforts of the Iraqi government to establish a stable, secure state through the arming and training of criminal militia elements engaged in violence against Iraqi security forces, coalition forces and Iraqi civilians. The extent of 11 91 Al-Qa'ida is in retreat in Iraq, but it is not yet defeated. Al-Qa'ida's leaders are looking for every opportunity they can to hang on. Osama bin Ladin has called Iraq "the perfect base," and it reminds us that a fundamental aim of Al-Qa'ida is to establish itself in the Arab world. It almost succeeded in Iraq; we cannot allow it a second chance. And it is not only Al-Qa'ida that would benefit - Iran has said publicly it will fill any vacuum in Iraq, and extremist Shi'a militias would reassert themselves. We saw them try in Basrah and Baghdad two weeks ago. And in all of this, the Iraqi people would suffer on a scale far beyond what we have already seen. Spiraling conflict could draw in neighbors with devastating consequences for the region and the world. Mr. Chairman, as monumental as the events of the last five years have been in Iraq, Iraqis, Americans -- and the world, ultimately -- will judge us far more on the basis of what will happen than what has happened. In the end, how we leave and what we leave behind will be more important than how we came. Our current course is hard, but it is working. Progress is real although still fragile. We need to stay with it. In the months ahead, we will continue to assist Iraq as it pursues further steps toward reconciliation and economic development. Over time, this will become increasingly an Iraqi process, as it should be. Our efforts will focus on increasing Iraq's integration regionally and internationally; assisting Iraqi institutions locally and nationally to strengthen the political process and promote economic activity; and supporting United 13 War Costs Total $800 Billion Through 2008 Operation Iraqi Freedom $608 Billion (95) Operation Enduring Freedom $163 Billion Operation Noble Eagle $29 Billion 02/22/08 Source: Congressional Research Service HBC House Budget Committee 96 War Costs Total $800 Billion From 2001 Through 2008 37 37 Iraq a Afghanistan and other 20 Dollars in Billions 22 18 159 28 53 16 18 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Request War costs total $800 billion through 2008, of which $600 billion is for Iraq HBC House Budget Committee Source Congressional Research Service 2/22/2008 26 CBO Calculates Future War Costs Totaling $1.0 Trillion over Ten Years Dollars in Billions $161 $147 Assumption: Deployed troops reduce to a steady-state level of 75,000 in the Iraq and Afghanistan theaters by 2013. $128 $101 $79 $74 $76 $77 $79 $80 $70 Request 2009 2010 2017 2018 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Estimates reflect costs for Iraq and Afghanistan HBC House Budget Committee Source: CBO estimate 2/5/2008 86 Reconstitution or "Reset" Costs Have Increased Each Year Dollars in Billions $52 According to the Department of Defense, fixing and replacing worn-out equipment would continue for a couple of years after operations cease and could cost $20 billion/year. $36 $20 $20 $19 2006 2007 2008 200.9 2010 Estimates reflect costs for Iraq and Afghanistan HBC House Budget Committee Source: CBO 4/7/08 QUESTIONS SUBMITTED BY MEMBERS POST HEARING APRIL 9, 2008 | 103 electrical standards and incorporating changes into our theater support contracts to help insure proper electrical safety standards. The Defense Contract Management Agency (DCMA) has directed KBŘ to implement a theater-wide, full technical in- spection of all maintained facilities where no prior inspection was performed. Addi- tionally, DCMA directed KBR to perform life, health, and safety inspections on all other maintained buildings to begin any necessary repairs. The MNC-I Safety Office has issued several safety alerts on electrocution hazards. Additionally, the Army Sustainment Command has made annual improvements to the contract statements of work based on lessons learned to insure electrical safety. QUESTIONS SUBMITTED BY MRS. DRAKE Mrs. DRAKE. What have the operations in Basrah done to bolster Maliki's role as a nationalist leader? How have various segments of the Iraqi population meaning, Shi'a, Kurdish, and particularly Sunni-reacted to his decision to take on criminal elements in the third largest Iraqi city? How do you think Iranian leaders have changed their view of Maliki, if at all? Can you give us your thoughts on Iran's role/actions should American forces with- draw over the next year? How do you see that situation playing out? Ambassador CROCKER. The Iraqi decision to combat entrenched militia groups in Basrah has major significance. First, a Shi’a majority government, led by Prime Minister Maliki, has demonstrated its commitment to taking on criminals and ex- tremists regardless of sectarian identity. Second, Iraqi security forces led such oper- ations not only in Basrah but in towns and cities throughout the South, as well as in Sadr City. The operation in Basrah has also improved the standing of Prime Min- ister Maliki as a national leader. The efforts of the government against criminal groups and extremist militia elements have broad political support, as a statement on April 5th by virtually all of Iraq's main political leaders-Sunni, Shia and Kurd-made clear. Iran continues to pursue its goals by simultaneously providing support to the GOI and militant Shia groups. Predicting Iranian behavior in the event of a U.S. troop drawdown is difficult, and would be contingent on a number of factors, including: the ability of Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) to confront Iranian backed extremists; the GOI's delivery of essential services and promotion of economic development, espe- cially in provinces with a Shi'a majority; and, Iraq's continued reintegration into the region. While the GOI has made tremendous strides on all of these fronts, a pre- mature withdrawal of Coalition Forces could undermine these efforts. Mrs. DRAKE. General Petraeus, from what I have seen, the operations in Basra were conducted largely with Iraqi ground forces utilizing American and British air support. As Iraqi forces throughout the country begin to mature, how do you see the U.S. military role evolving? What types of support will we be asked to provide? What types of logistic and "enabling" capabilities can the Iraqi forces provide, and what is the timeline for development of these capabilities? General PETRAEUS. As Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) mature, Coalition Forces are transitioning from leading operations, to partnering with Iraqi Forces, to providing overwatch. As this evolution occurs, we are seeing the ISF assume increased respon- sibility, as highlighted by recent ISF security operations in Basra, Mosul, and Sadr City. Concurrently, the security ministries—the Ministry of Defense, Ministry of In- terior, and the Counter-Terrorism Bureau-are improving their institutional per- formance to enable Iraq to assume greater responsibility for force management func- tions, which include the generation of new forces and the replenishment and sustainment of forces already in the fight. Despite this progress, the ISF are still dependent on Coalition Forces for enabling capabilities in a number of key areas, including: logistics support, close air support, air weapons teams, communications, and intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance support. As we help the ISF to become more capable and more independent, our focus is increasingly moving beyond growing the force to the development of military and police enablers. In the military, the expansion of enablers will focus on logistics, aviation, intelligence, and command and control. In the police forces, efforts will center on facilities, logistics, leadership, internal affairs, and forensics. We are see- ing improvement in each of these areas. As an example of progress in logistics, the Ministry of Defense now has at the Taji National Depot a facility to refurbish and repair light wheeled vehicles. Over time, this capability will extend to include heavy and tracked vehicles. The Depot also has a superb small arms repair and mainte- nance facility that will be opened in May 2008. Simultaneously, the Ministry is es- tablishing “Location Commands”-regional centers that will serve as both supply distribution hubs and maintenance and recovery centers. Though these actions rep- 106 to lay down arms in both cities were in part acknowledgments of this trend toward a popular rejection of violence (a trend that Iran, whose Qods Force funds, trains, and equips the militia Special Groups, also recognized). Our strategy for addressing JAM/SG violence acknowledges both of these factors. First, Coalition forces assist the Iraqi Government in maintaining its monopoly on the legitimate use of force by helping confront violent militia activity. ISF and Coali- tion operations continue to degrade the military capability of Sadr's militias. Second, we seek to assist the government of Iraq in its efforts to draw reconcilable elements of the Sadrist Trend into the political process. By providing for security and improv- ing living conditions, Iraqi and Coalition efforts reinforce and encourage the Shi'a population's increasingly negative view of militias and their violence. Thus far, our strategy seems to be having the desired effect. Sadr continues to instruct his militias to lay down their arms, and he recently announced an initiative to redirect the majority of JAM to social services programs and peaceful resistance to the Coalition, while maintaining a smaller armed element. This decision high- lights the pressure Sadr is under regarding militia activity. Also, many leaders of the Sadrist movement are leaning toward participation in the political process as a way to give voice to the legitimate concerns of their constituencies. Mr. WITTMAN. General Petraeus and Ambassador Crocker, What role does the United States play in the negotiations between Prime Minister Maliki and Muqtada al-Sadr? Should there be more oversight and involvement on the part of the United States? How does the State Department measure the effectiveness of their commu- nications? General PETRAEUS. I respectfully defer to Ambassador Crocker and the Depart- ment of State to comment on what role, if any, the United States should play in negotiations between Government of Iraq leaders and Moqtada al-Sadr and on how they measure their effectiveness in communications. Ambassador Crocker and I meet regularly with Prime Minister Maliki and other Iraqi political leaders and rep- resentatives during the course of our duties here in Iraq. We register our views and concerns, and Prime Minister often consults with us on topics of interest to him. At the same time, Prime Minister Maliki is the leader of a sovereign government and, as we saw in a number of recent events, will make his own decisions, as he should. Mr. WITTMAN. Part of the National Strategy for Victory in Iraq called for an in- creased role in inter-agency assistance to the military. How satisfied are you with the inter-agency role/assistance and how do you measure the effectiveness? Can you share some success stories? Ambassador CROCKER. In February 2007, the President announced the establish- ment of ten new State Department-led Provincial Reconstruction Teams (PRTs) as a civilian complement to the military “surge.” In April 2007, Multinational Corps- Iraq (MNC-I) requested another five teams to support the “surge." By September 2007, all of these teams had begun operations. As of April 2008, there are 31 active PRTs, Provincial Support Teams (PŠTs), and embedded PRTs (ePRTs) staffed by personnel from Department of State, the Department of Defense, the U.S. Agency for International Development, the Department Of Justice, and the U.S. Depart- ment of Agriculture. PRÎ's support the counterinsurgency strategy, build Iraqi gov- ernance and economic capacity throughout the country, and support our political en- gagement with provincial and municipal officials. We enjoy great cooperation from our interagency partners in this most successful interagency initiative. On April 3, General Petraeus and I requested through the National Security Council the assignment of experts from civilian agencies to MNF-I's Joint Inter- Agency Task Force or JIATF. Representatives from the State Department, USAID, the Department of Homeland Security and several Department of Defense Combat Support Agencies arrived during the summer and are now embedded as part of the MNF-I operational planning staff. In addition, the Department of the Treasury and the Federal Bureau of Investigation have designated specific personnel as liaisons to the JIATF. They are focused on strategic level planning using all elements of na- tional power, not just the military, to address difficult problem sets through coordi- nated, inter-agency action against specific strategic threats. Mr. WITTMAN. It appears that our “surge” plan has worked or progressed quite well as seen by the improvements in the security environment, but this increase in security can also be attributed to Muqtada al-Sadr keeping his Shiite militia at bay during this period. As soon as he turned his militia loose, the environment became dangerous, and he has since pulled his militia back. Is there a plan for keeping al- Sadr at bay? How do you control him? Ambassador CROCKER. Muqtada al-Sadr called for his militia to “freeze” its oper- ations because of both increasing operational losses from fighting Coalition forces and flagging support of the Iraqi people. As the threat from al-Qaeda and insur- 110 initiatives to enhance cultural immersion opportunities for Reserve Officer Training Corps and West Point cadets; programs to provide opportunities for graduate edu- cation for our officer corps; and career management processes that incentivize and provide opportunities for joint and interagency assignments and education. The more we study and work outside of our intellectual comfort zones, the better we can leverage cultural understanding to succeed in today's complex operating environ- ments. QUESTIONS SUBMITTED BY MS. TSONGAS Ms. TSONGAS. The President's most recent orders were to carry out the surge so that the U.S. military could help reduce the violence in Iraq and bring greater sta- bility to the country. This stability would then create an opening for the country's political leadership to achieve a similar stability in Iraq's governance. Military achievements, however, have not translated to this stated political goal. The ur- gency the current administration felt to achieve these military goals has not been shared by the Iraqi government of Mr. Maliki, over whom our military leaders have no control. It is my belief that postponing the drawdown of our troops until “condi- tions permit,” as you stated yesterday, only highlights the military's incapacity to drive the political side of the equation, and hampers our country's ability to force the Iraqi governments' long overdue political resolution. You have stated your dis- satisfaction with the political progress made by the Iraqi political elites, in spite of our military's best efforts. On this we both agree. I would endorse a timetable as a means to drive political reconciliation. General Petraeus, as a military man with tremendous experience, a demonstrated track record and the extraordinary power of the United States backing you up, what are the tactics you would employ to en- courage the Iraqis to make fundamental movements towards political stability? General PETRAEUS. There is no purely military or purely political solution in Iraq, and we are using a variety of approaches to bring about political stability. All four lines of operation-security, economic, diplomatic, and political—are mutually rein- forcing and thus must be pursued to achieve a long-term solution in Iraq. Though the pursuit of political reconciliation and good governance along the political line of operation is the main effort, success in this area depends on security conditions that enable and foster compromise. Enduring domestic political progress will also rest on supporting economic and diplomatic developments. I believe that political com- promise among Iraqi political leaders is a necessary condition for a political solution. Îraq leaders have put themselves under enormous personal pressure and are also under the collective pressure of various political elements in Iraq to create stability and long-term solutions for Iraq. They have already worked together and com- promised on a number of difficult issues in order to pass important pieces of legisla- tion earlier this year—among them, a budget law, a de-Ba'athification reform law, a provincial powers law, and an amnesty law. They recognize that in order to suc- ceed in a political process, they will need to produce results, and producing results requires compromise. With regard to expectations about the pace of progress, it is important to recognize that Iraq's political leaders are still struggling with funda- mental questions such as the degree of devolution to the provinces of various au- thorities and powers in Iraq, an issue similar to our own debate over state's rights at the birth of the United States. Iraq's political leaders have already begun to make progress in these areas, and they are continuing to move forward on issues such as the provincial elections scheduled for later this year. Supporting political solu- tions in Iraq is not purely a matter of convincing Iraqi leaders of the importance of compromise. It is also a matter of helping Iraqi leaders to set conditions that en- able progress. Our leverage lies in our robust engagement, ability to work with the government of Iraq, and willingness to help its leaders at local as well as national level make and implement the hard decisions that are in the best interests of all the Iraqi people. Ms. TSONGAS. Ambassador Crocker, as someone who has spent decades developing relationships with diplomats throughout the Middle East, what are the tactics you would employ to encourage the Iraqis to make fundamental movements towards po- litical stability? Ambassador CROCKER. We encourage and support Iraqi political leaders across the board to accelerate actions necessary to promote political stability and national reconciliation—by passing legislation in key areas, broadening participation by all of Iraq's communities in the political process, and improving the delivery of basic services. We also encourage Iraq to work with its neighbors and the broader inter- national community, including through organizations such as the United Nations Assistance Mission for Iraq. International agreements, like the International Com- UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN 3 9015 09041 2597