Armour rue REPORT
Iraqs neighbors are playing a major role—both positive
and negative—in the stabilization and reconstruction of
"the new Iraq.” As part of the Institute’s ‘Iraq and Its
Neighbors” initiative, a group of leading specialists on
the geopolitics of the region is assessing the interests
and influence of the countries surrounding Iraq and the
impact on U.S. bilateral relations with these countries.
The Institute is also sponsoring dialogue between Iraqi
national security and foreign policy officials and their
counterparts from the neighboring counties. Scott
Lasenskys report on Jordan is the fourth in a series of
special reports by the U.S. Institute of Peace on "Iraq
and Its Neighbors." Jon Alterman’s report on Kuwait and
the Gulf States and Steve Simon's study on Syria will
be published in the coming months. Peter Pavilionis is
the editor of the series. For more infomration about the
"Iraq and Its Neighbors” project, go to http://www.usip.
org/iraq/neighbors/index.html.
Scott Lasensky is a senior research associate at the
Institute's Center for Conflict Analysis and Prevention
and an adjunct professor of government at Georgetown
University. He directs the Institute's "Iraq and Its
Neighbors" project The research for this report includes
inten-iews with Jordanian, Iraqi, and U.S. officials over
the past two years. The author wishes to thank Sam
Parker and Kerem Levitas for their research support, as
well as the reviewers for their comments.
The views expressed in this report do not necessarily
reflect the views of the United States Institute of Peace,
which does not advocate specific policy positions.
SPECIAL REPORT 178 g_ j __DVECE_NIIEFT20A0§
Corrrenrs
Introduction 2
Jordan’s Interests: Security and Stability 3
Jordan’s Influence in Iraq: Positive but Modest 7
Compatibility with U.S. Interests—Present and Future 11
Conclusions and Policy Recommendations 15
UNITED STATES INSTITUTE OF PEACE wvwv.usip.org

CIAL REPORT
1200 17th Street NW ' Washington, DC 20036 ' 202.457.1700 ° fax 202.429.6063
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Scott Lasensk_y
Jordan
and Iraq
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Betr/veen Cooperation and Crisis
Summary
Jordan wants a strong, stable, moderate, and unified ‘Iraq. Having wrestled with the
dilemmas of an assertive Iraq for many years, Jordan—like Iraq's other neighbors-
now faces a myriad of challenges presented by a weak Iraq. The kingdom, for years
a linchpin in the U.S. strategy to promote peace and stability in the region, is now
less secure in the wake of the U.S.-led occupation of Iraq. Jordanian leaders worry
that Iraq is becoming a haven for terrorist groups, a fear dramatically heightened
by the November 2005 suicide bombings in Amman. Jordan also has an interest in
the development of an Iraq that does not inspire radical Islamist politics in Jordan.
Moreover, the kingdom is anxious about growing Iranian involvement in Iraqi politics,
and—more broadly—increasing Iranian and Shiite influence in the region.
Despite periodic crises of confidence and lingering Iraqi resentment over Jordan's
close ties with Saddam Hussein, the two countries have managed to forge deep ties;
in fact, Jordan has taken the lead among Arab states. In the face of repeated attacks
and threats, Jordan has maintained a strong diplomatic presence in Baghdad. The
kingdom has also played a positive, if modest, role in stabilization and reconstruction
efforts.
The economic impact of the Iraq crisis in Jordan has been mixed. Jordan has ben-
efited greatly from serving as a “gateway” to Iraq for governments, aid workers, con-
tractors, and businesspeople; its real estate and banking sectors are booming, and it
stands to reap more benefits from increased trade and transport should the situation
in Iraq improve. However, with the fall of Saddam Hussein, Jordan lost the sizable oil
subsidies and customary shipments it received from Iraq. One of Jordan's principal
economic interests in the new Iraq is securing future energy assistance.