id	author	title	date	pages	extension	mime	words	sentences	flesch	summary	cache	txt
cord-103888-ggm29vrz	Nova, Nicole	Susceptible host availability modulates climate effects on dengue dynamics	2020-10-19		.txt	text/plain	1538	86	44	By analyzing incidence data, estimated susceptible population size, and climate data with methods based on nonlinear time series analysis (collectively referred to as empirical dynamic modeling), we identified drivers and their interactive effects on dengue dynamics in San Juan, Puerto Rico. By capturing mechanistic, nonlinear, and context-dependent effects of population susceptibility, temperature, and rainfall on dengue transmission empirically, our model improves forecast skill over recent, state-of-the-art models for dengue incidence. Scenario exploration with multivariate EDM allowed us to assess the effect of a 270 small change in temperature or rainfall on dengue incidence, across different states 271 of the system. Compared to 298 the other drivers, the converging cross-mapping skill of the temperature null 299 models were relatively high (Figures 3 and S8 As expected, EDM tests for putative causality in the nonsensical directions-304 incidence driving temperature or rainfall-were not significant (i.e., no convergence; Figure S7 , black lines).	./cache/cord-103888-ggm29vrz.txt	./txt/cord-103888-ggm29vrz.txt