id	author	title	date	pages	extension	mime	words	sentences	flesch	summary	cache	txt
cord-298626-duvzwxv0	Džiugys, Algis	Simplified model of Covid-19 epidemic prognosis under quarantine and estimation of quarantine effectiveness	2020-07-29		.txt	text/plain	4809	234	51	The model is developed on the basis of collected epidemiological data of Covid19 pandemic, which shows that the daily growth rate of new infections has tendency to decrease linearly when the quarantine is imposed in a country (or a region) until it reaches a constant value, which corresponds to the effectiveness of quarantine measures taken in the country. We propose to build epidemic analysis and model on the dynamics of rate of new infection cases as more reliable epidemiological data together with an assumption of effectiveness to isolate registered infectious during imposed quarantine. In order to predict Covid-19 disease spread in infected country or region with imposed quarantine, a model of the growth rate of new cases needs to be developed.	./cache/cord-298626-duvzwxv0.txt	./txt/cord-298626-duvzwxv0.txt