id	author	title	date	pages	extension	mime	words	sentences	flesch	summary	cache	txt
cord-317371-v7hmc9sj	Zhang, Xiaolei	Predicting turning point, duration and attack rate of COVID-19 outbreaks in major Western countries	2020-04-20		.txt	text/plain	1893	80	57	In this paper, we employed a segmented Poisson model to analyze the available daily new cases data of the COVID-19 outbreaks in the six Western countries of the Group of Seven, namely, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, UK and USA. Our analysis allowed us to make a statistical prediction on the turning point (the time that the daily new cases peak), the duration (the period that the outbreak lasts) and the attack rate (the percentage of the total population that will be infected over the course of the outbreak) for these countries. To identify the turning point and predict the further spread of COVID-19 outbreaks while accounting for governments enforcement of stay-at-home advises/orders, social distancing, lockdowns, and quarantines against COVID-19, we combine the power law with the exponential law for daily new cases based on a segmented Poisson model.	./cache/cord-317371-v7hmc9sj.txt	./txt/cord-317371-v7hmc9sj.txt