id	author	title	date	pages	extension	mime	words	sentences	flesch	summary	cache	txt
cord-332618-8al98ya2	Barraza, Néstor Ruben	A non-homogeneous Markov early epidemic growth dynamics model. Application to the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic	2020-09-18		.txt	text/plain	4603	307	62	We propose a functional form of birth rate that depends on the number of individuals in the population and on the elapsed time, allowing us to model a contagion effect. Hence, 35 we propose a different model based on a Pure Birth process with an event rate that, like Polya's, depends on both the elapsed time and the number of previous events, but with a different functional form. Our main motivation is to obtain a model that describes an epidemic outbreak at its first stage, before it reaches the inflection point in the case incidence curve, which is useful to monitor how contagion is spreading out. Since the mean value function of the Polya-Lundberg process is a linear function of time (see Appendix B), we introduce a modification in the event rate in order to get a mean value function that grows 85 subexponentially with either positive or negative concavity as we observe in the early epidemic growth curves usually reported.	./cache/cord-332618-8al98ya2.txt	./txt/cord-332618-8al98ya2.txt