id sid tid token lemma pos cord-299810-e57pwgnx 1 1 key key JJ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 1 2 : : : cord-299810-e57pwgnx 1 3 cord-299810-e57pwgnx cord-299810-e57pwgnx NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 1 4 authors author NNS cord-299810-e57pwgnx 1 5 : : : cord-299810-e57pwgnx 1 6 Martelloni Martelloni NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 1 7 , , , cord-299810-e57pwgnx 1 8 Gabriele Gabriele NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 1 9 ; ; : cord-299810-e57pwgnx 1 10 Martelloni Martelloni NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 1 11 , , , cord-299810-e57pwgnx 1 12 Gianluca Gianluca NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 2 1 title title NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 2 2 : : : cord-299810-e57pwgnx 2 3 Modelling model VBG cord-299810-e57pwgnx 2 4 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 2 5 downhill downhill NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 2 6 of of IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 2 7 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 2 8 Sars Sars NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 2 9 - - HYPH cord-299810-e57pwgnx 2 10 Cov-2 Cov-2 NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 2 11 in in IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 2 12 Italy Italy NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 2 13 and and CC cord-299810-e57pwgnx 2 14 a a DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 2 15 universal universal JJ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 2 16 forecast forecast NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 2 17 of of IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 2 18 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 2 19 epidemic epidemic NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 2 20 in in IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 2 21 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 2 22 world world NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 2 23 date date NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 2 24 : : : cord-299810-e57pwgnx 2 25 2020 2020 CD cord-299810-e57pwgnx 2 26 - - HYPH cord-299810-e57pwgnx 2 27 07 07 CD cord-299810-e57pwgnx 2 28 - - HYPH cord-299810-e57pwgnx 2 29 01 01 CD cord-299810-e57pwgnx 2 30 journal journal NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 2 31 : : : cord-299810-e57pwgnx 3 1 Chaos Chaos NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 3 2 Solitons Solitons NNPS cord-299810-e57pwgnx 4 1 Fractals fractal NNS cord-299810-e57pwgnx 4 2 DOI DOI NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 4 3 : : : cord-299810-e57pwgnx 4 4 10.1016 10.1016 CD cord-299810-e57pwgnx 4 5 / / SYM cord-299810-e57pwgnx 4 6 j.chaos.2020.110064 j.chaos.2020.110064 NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 4 7 sha sha NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 4 8 : : : cord-299810-e57pwgnx 4 9 f8b5ff06f641d2b2f55aec0bd245282707c625a2 f8b5ff06f641d2b2f55aec0bd245282707c625a2 NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 4 10 doc_id doc_id NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 4 11 : : : cord-299810-e57pwgnx 4 12 299810 299810 CD cord-299810-e57pwgnx 4 13 cord_uid cord_uid NNS cord-299810-e57pwgnx 4 14 : : : cord-299810-e57pwgnx 5 1 e57pwgnx e57pwgnx NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 6 1 In in IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 6 2 a a DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 6 3 previous previous JJ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 6 4 article article NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 6 5 [ [ -LRB- cord-299810-e57pwgnx 6 6 1 1 LS cord-299810-e57pwgnx 6 7 ] ] -RRB- cord-299810-e57pwgnx 6 8 we -PRON- PRP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 6 9 have have VBP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 6 10 described describe VBN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 6 11 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 6 12 temporal temporal JJ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 6 13 evolution evolution NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 6 14 of of IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 6 15 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 6 16 Sars Sars NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 6 17 - - HYPH cord-299810-e57pwgnx 6 18 Cov-2 Cov-2 NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 6 19 in in IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 6 20 Italy Italy NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 6 21 in in IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 6 22 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 6 23 time time NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 6 24 window window NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 6 25 February February NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 6 26 24-April 24-april CD cord-299810-e57pwgnx 6 27 1 1 CD cord-299810-e57pwgnx 6 28 . . . cord-299810-e57pwgnx 7 1 As as IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 7 2 we -PRON- PRP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 7 3 can can MD cord-299810-e57pwgnx 7 4 see see VB cord-299810-e57pwgnx 7 5 in in IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 7 6 [ [ -LRB- cord-299810-e57pwgnx 7 7 1 1 CD cord-299810-e57pwgnx 7 8 ] ] -RRB- cord-299810-e57pwgnx 8 1 a a DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 8 2 generalized generalized JJ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 8 3 logistic logistic JJ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 8 4 equation equation NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 8 5 captures capture VBZ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 8 6 both both CC cord-299810-e57pwgnx 8 7 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 8 8 peaks peak NNS cord-299810-e57pwgnx 8 9 of of IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 8 10 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 8 11 total total JJ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 8 12 infected infect VBN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 8 13 and and CC cord-299810-e57pwgnx 8 14 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 8 15 deaths death NNS cord-299810-e57pwgnx 8 16 . . . cord-299810-e57pwgnx 9 1 In in IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 9 2 this this DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 9 3 article article NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 9 4 our -PRON- PRP$ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 9 5 goal goal NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 9 6 is be VBZ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 9 7 to to TO cord-299810-e57pwgnx 9 8 study study VB cord-299810-e57pwgnx 9 9 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 9 10 missing miss VBG cord-299810-e57pwgnx 9 11 peak peak NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 9 12 , , , cord-299810-e57pwgnx 9 13 i.e. i.e. FW cord-299810-e57pwgnx 9 14 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 9 15 currently currently RB cord-299810-e57pwgnx 9 16 infected infect VBN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 9 17 one one CD cord-299810-e57pwgnx 9 18 ( ( -LRB- cord-299810-e57pwgnx 9 19 or or CC cord-299810-e57pwgnx 9 20 total total JJ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 9 21 currently currently RB cord-299810-e57pwgnx 9 22 positive positive JJ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 9 23 ) ) -RRB- cord-299810-e57pwgnx 9 24 . . . cord-299810-e57pwgnx 10 1 After after IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 10 2 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 10 3 April April NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 10 4 7 7 CD cord-299810-e57pwgnx 10 5 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 10 6 large large JJ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 10 7 increase increase NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 10 8 in in IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 10 9 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 10 10 number number NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 10 11 of of IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 10 12 swabs swab NNS cord-299810-e57pwgnx 10 13 meant mean VBN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 10 14 that that IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 10 15 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 10 16 logistical logistical JJ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 10 17 behavior behavior NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 10 18 of of IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 10 19 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 10 20 infected infected JJ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 10 21 curve curve NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 10 22 no no RB cord-299810-e57pwgnx 10 23 longer long RBR cord-299810-e57pwgnx 10 24 worked work VBD cord-299810-e57pwgnx 10 25 . . . cord-299810-e57pwgnx 11 1 So so RB cord-299810-e57pwgnx 11 2 we -PRON- PRP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 11 3 decided decide VBD cord-299810-e57pwgnx 11 4 to to TO cord-299810-e57pwgnx 11 5 generalize generalize VB cord-299810-e57pwgnx 11 6 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 11 7 model model NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 11 8 , , , cord-299810-e57pwgnx 11 9 introducing introduce VBG cord-299810-e57pwgnx 11 10 new new JJ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 11 11 parameters parameter NNS cord-299810-e57pwgnx 11 12 . . . cord-299810-e57pwgnx 12 1 Moreover moreover RB cord-299810-e57pwgnx 12 2 , , , cord-299810-e57pwgnx 12 3 we -PRON- PRP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 12 4 adopt adopt VBP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 12 5 a a DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 12 6 similar similar JJ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 12 7 approach approach NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 12 8 used use VBN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 12 9 in in IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 12 10 [ [ -LRB- cord-299810-e57pwgnx 12 11 1 1 CD cord-299810-e57pwgnx 12 12 ] ] -RRB- cord-299810-e57pwgnx 12 13 ( ( -LRB- cord-299810-e57pwgnx 12 14 for for IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 12 15 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 12 16 estimation estimation NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 12 17 of of IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 12 18 deaths death NNS cord-299810-e57pwgnx 12 19 ) ) -RRB- cord-299810-e57pwgnx 12 20 in in IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 12 21 order order NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 12 22 to to TO cord-299810-e57pwgnx 12 23 evaluate evaluate VB cord-299810-e57pwgnx 12 24 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 12 25 recoveries recovery NNS cord-299810-e57pwgnx 12 26 . . . cord-299810-e57pwgnx 13 1 In in IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 13 2 this this DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 13 3 way way NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 13 4 , , , cord-299810-e57pwgnx 13 5 introducing introduce VBG cord-299810-e57pwgnx 13 6 a a DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 13 7 simple simple JJ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 13 8 conservation conservation NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 13 9 law law NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 13 10 , , , cord-299810-e57pwgnx 13 11 we -PRON- PRP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 13 12 define define VBP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 13 13 a a DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 13 14 model model NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 13 15 with with IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 13 16 4 4 CD cord-299810-e57pwgnx 13 17 populations population NNS cord-299810-e57pwgnx 13 18 : : : cord-299810-e57pwgnx 13 19 total total JJ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 13 20 infected infected JJ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 13 21 , , , cord-299810-e57pwgnx 13 22 currently currently RB cord-299810-e57pwgnx 13 23 positives positive NNS cord-299810-e57pwgnx 13 24 , , , cord-299810-e57pwgnx 13 25 recoveries recovery NNS cord-299810-e57pwgnx 13 26 and and CC cord-299810-e57pwgnx 13 27 deaths death NNS cord-299810-e57pwgnx 13 28 . . . cord-299810-e57pwgnx 14 1 Therefore therefore RB cord-299810-e57pwgnx 14 2 , , , cord-299810-e57pwgnx 14 3 we -PRON- PRP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 14 4 propose propose VBP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 14 5 an an DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 14 6 alternative alternative JJ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 14 7 method method NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 14 8 to to IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 14 9 a a DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 14 10 classical classical JJ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 14 11 SIRD SIRD NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 14 12 model model NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 14 13 for for IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 14 14 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 14 15 evaluation evaluation NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 14 16 of of IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 14 17 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 14 18 Sars Sars NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 14 19 - - HYPH cord-299810-e57pwgnx 14 20 Cov-2 Cov-2 NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 14 21 epidemic epidemic NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 14 22 . . . cord-299810-e57pwgnx 15 1 However however RB cord-299810-e57pwgnx 15 2 , , , cord-299810-e57pwgnx 15 3 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 15 4 method method NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 15 5 is be VBZ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 15 6 general general JJ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 15 7 and and CC cord-299810-e57pwgnx 15 8 thus thus RB cord-299810-e57pwgnx 15 9 applicable applicable JJ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 15 10 to to IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 15 11 other other JJ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 15 12 diseases disease NNS cord-299810-e57pwgnx 15 13 . . . cord-299810-e57pwgnx 16 1 Finally finally RB cord-299810-e57pwgnx 16 2 we -PRON- PRP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 16 3 study study VBP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 16 4 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 16 5 behavior behavior NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 16 6 of of IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 16 7 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 16 8 ratio ratio NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 16 9 infected infect VBN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 16 10 over over IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 16 11 swabs swab NNS cord-299810-e57pwgnx 16 12 for for IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 16 13 Italy Italy NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 16 14 , , , cord-299810-e57pwgnx 16 15 Germany Germany NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 16 16 and and CC cord-299810-e57pwgnx 16 17 USA USA NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 16 18 , , , cord-299810-e57pwgnx 16 19 and and CC cord-299810-e57pwgnx 16 20 we -PRON- PRP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 16 21 show show VBP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 16 22 as as IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 16 23 studying study VBG cord-299810-e57pwgnx 16 24 this this DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 16 25 parameter parameter NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 16 26 we -PRON- PRP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 16 27 recover recover VBP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 16 28 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 16 29 generalized generalized JJ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 16 30 Logistic logistic JJ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 16 31 model model NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 16 32 used use VBN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 16 33 in in IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 16 34 [ [ -LRB- cord-299810-e57pwgnx 16 35 1 1 CD cord-299810-e57pwgnx 16 36 ] ] -RRB- cord-299810-e57pwgnx 16 37 for for IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 16 38 these these DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 16 39 three three CD cord-299810-e57pwgnx 16 40 countries country NNS cord-299810-e57pwgnx 16 41 . . . cord-299810-e57pwgnx 17 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 17 2 think think VBP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 17 3 that that IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 17 4 this this DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 17 5 trend trend NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 17 6 could could MD cord-299810-e57pwgnx 17 7 be be VB cord-299810-e57pwgnx 17 8 useful useful JJ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 17 9 for for IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 17 10 a a DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 17 11 future future JJ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 17 12 epidemic epidemic NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 17 13 of of IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 17 14 this this DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 17 15 coronavirus coronavirus NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 17 16 . . . cord-299810-e57pwgnx 18 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 18 2 briefly briefly RB cord-299810-e57pwgnx 18 3 review review VBP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 18 4 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 18 5 historical historical JJ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 18 6 evolution evolution NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 18 7 of of IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 18 8 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 18 9 Sars Sars NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 18 10 - - HYPH cord-299810-e57pwgnx 18 11 Cov-2 Cov-2 NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 18 12 in in IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 18 13 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 18 14 Earth Earth NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 18 15 . . . cord-299810-e57pwgnx 19 1 In in IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 19 2 early early JJ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 19 3 December December NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 19 4 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 19 5 Sars Sars NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 19 6 - - HYPH cord-299810-e57pwgnx 19 7 Cov-2 Cov-2 NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 19 8 appeared appear VBD cord-299810-e57pwgnx 19 9 in in IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 19 10 Wuhan Wuhan NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 19 11 , , , cord-299810-e57pwgnx 19 12 China China NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 19 13 . . . cord-299810-e57pwgnx 20 1 The the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 20 2 disease disease NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 20 3 caused cause VBN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 20 4 by by IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 20 5 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 20 6 new new JJ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 20 7 Coronavirus Coronavirus NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 20 8 has have VBZ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 20 9 a a DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 20 10 name name NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 20 11 : : : cord-299810-e57pwgnx 20 12 " " `` cord-299810-e57pwgnx 20 13 COVID-19 COVID-19 NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 20 14 " " '' cord-299810-e57pwgnx 20 15 ( ( -LRB- cord-299810-e57pwgnx 20 16 where where WRB cord-299810-e57pwgnx 20 17 " " `` cord-299810-e57pwgnx 20 18 CO CO NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 20 19 " " '' cord-299810-e57pwgnx 20 20 stands stand VBZ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 20 21 for for IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 20 22 corona corona NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 20 23 , , , cord-299810-e57pwgnx 20 24 " " `` cord-299810-e57pwgnx 20 25 VI VI NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 20 26 " " '' cord-299810-e57pwgnx 20 27 for for IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 20 28 virus virus NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 20 29 , , , cord-299810-e57pwgnx 20 30 " " `` cord-299810-e57pwgnx 20 31 D D NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 20 32 " " '' cord-299810-e57pwgnx 20 33 for for IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 20 34 disease disease NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 20 35 and and CC cord-299810-e57pwgnx 20 36 " " `` cord-299810-e57pwgnx 20 37 19 19 CD cord-299810-e57pwgnx 20 38 " " '' cord-299810-e57pwgnx 20 39 indicates indicate VBZ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 20 40 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 20 41 year year NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 20 42 in in IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 20 43 which which WDT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 20 44 it -PRON- PRP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 20 45 occurred occur VBD cord-299810-e57pwgnx 20 46 ) ) -RRB- cord-299810-e57pwgnx 20 47 . . . cord-299810-e57pwgnx 21 1 The the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 21 2 Oms Oms NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 21 3 Director Director NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 21 4 - - HYPH cord-299810-e57pwgnx 21 5 General General NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 21 6 Tedros Tedros NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 21 7 Adhanom Adhanom NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 21 8 Ghebreyesus Ghebreyesus NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 21 9 announced announce VBD cord-299810-e57pwgnx 21 10 it -PRON- PRP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 21 11 on on IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 21 12 February February NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 21 13 11 11 CD cord-299810-e57pwgnx 21 14 , , , cord-299810-e57pwgnx 21 15 2020 2020 CD cord-299810-e57pwgnx 21 16 , , , cord-299810-e57pwgnx 21 17 during during IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 21 18 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 21 19 extraordinary extraordinary JJ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 21 20 press press NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 21 21 conference conference NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 21 22 dedicated dedicate VBN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 21 23 to to IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 21 24 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 21 25 virus virus NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 21 26 . . . cord-299810-e57pwgnx 22 1 The the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 22 2 appearance appearance NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 22 3 of of IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 22 4 new new JJ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 22 5 pathogenic pathogenic JJ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 22 6 viruses virus NNS cord-299810-e57pwgnx 22 7 for for IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 22 8 humans human NNS cord-299810-e57pwgnx 22 9 , , , cord-299810-e57pwgnx 22 10 previously previously RB cord-299810-e57pwgnx 22 11 circulating circulate VBG cord-299810-e57pwgnx 22 12 only only RB cord-299810-e57pwgnx 22 13 in in IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 22 14 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 22 15 animal animal NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 22 16 world world NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 22 17 , , , cord-299810-e57pwgnx 22 18 is be VBZ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 22 19 a a DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 22 20 widely widely RB cord-299810-e57pwgnx 22 21 known know VBN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 22 22 phenomenon phenomenon NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 22 23 ( ( -LRB- cord-299810-e57pwgnx 22 24 called call VBN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 22 25 spill spill NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 22 26 over over RP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 22 27 ) ) -RRB- cord-299810-e57pwgnx 22 28 and and CC cord-299810-e57pwgnx 22 29 it -PRON- PRP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 22 30 is be VBZ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 22 31 thought think VBN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 22 32 that that IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 22 33 it -PRON- PRP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 22 34 may may MD cord-299810-e57pwgnx 22 35 also also RB cord-299810-e57pwgnx 22 36 be be VB cord-299810-e57pwgnx 22 37 at at IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 22 38 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 22 39 basis basis NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 22 40 of of IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 22 41 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 22 42 origin origin NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 22 43 of of IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 22 44 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 22 45 new new JJ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 22 46 coronavirus coronavirus NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 22 47 ( ( -LRB- cord-299810-e57pwgnx 22 48 SARS SARS NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 22 49 - - HYPH cord-299810-e57pwgnx 22 50 CoV-2 CoV-2 NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 22 51 ) ) -RRB- cord-299810-e57pwgnx 22 52 . . . cord-299810-e57pwgnx 23 1 The the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 23 2 scientific scientific JJ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 23 3 community community NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 23 4 is be VBZ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 23 5 currently currently RB cord-299810-e57pwgnx 23 6 trying try VBG cord-299810-e57pwgnx 23 7 to to TO cord-299810-e57pwgnx 23 8 identify identify VB cord-299810-e57pwgnx 23 9 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 23 10 source source NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 23 11 of of IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 23 12 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 23 13 infection infection NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 23 14 . . . cord-299810-e57pwgnx 24 1 On on IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 24 2 December December NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 24 3 31 31 CD cord-299810-e57pwgnx 24 4 , , , cord-299810-e57pwgnx 24 5 2019 2019 CD cord-299810-e57pwgnx 24 6 , , , cord-299810-e57pwgnx 24 7 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 24 8 Municipal Municipal NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 24 9 Health Health NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 24 10 Commission Commission NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 24 11 of of IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 24 12 Wuhan Wuhan NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 24 13 ( ( -LRB- cord-299810-e57pwgnx 24 14 China China NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 24 15 ) ) -RRB- cord-299810-e57pwgnx 24 16 reported report VBD cord-299810-e57pwgnx 24 17 to to IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 24 18 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 24 19 Oms Oms NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 24 20 a a DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 24 21 cluster cluster NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 24 22 of of IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 24 23 cases case NNS cord-299810-e57pwgnx 24 24 of of IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 24 25 pneumonia pneumonia NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 24 26 of of IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 24 27 unknown unknown JJ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 24 28 etiology etiology NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 24 29 in in IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 24 30 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 24 31 city city NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 24 32 of of IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 24 33 Wuhan Wuhan NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 24 34 , , , cord-299810-e57pwgnx 24 35 in in IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 24 36 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 24 37 Chinese chinese JJ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 24 38 province province NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 24 39 of of IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 24 40 Hubei Hubei NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 24 41 . . . cord-299810-e57pwgnx 25 1 On on IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 25 2 January January NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 25 3 9 9 CD cord-299810-e57pwgnx 25 4 , , , cord-299810-e57pwgnx 25 5 2020 2020 CD cord-299810-e57pwgnx 25 6 , , , cord-299810-e57pwgnx 25 7 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 25 8 Chinese Chinese NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 25 9 Center Center NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 25 10 for for IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 25 11 Disease Disease NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 25 12 Prevention Prevention NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 25 13 and and CC cord-299810-e57pwgnx 25 14 Control Control NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 25 15 ( ( -LRB- cord-299810-e57pwgnx 25 16 CDC CDC NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 25 17 ) ) -RRB- cord-299810-e57pwgnx 25 18 reported report VBD cord-299810-e57pwgnx 25 19 that that IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 25 20 a a DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 25 21 new new JJ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 25 22 coronavirus coronavirus NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 25 23 ( ( -LRB- cord-299810-e57pwgnx 25 24 initially initially RB cord-299810-e57pwgnx 25 25 called call VBN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 25 26 2019-nCoV 2019-ncov CD cord-299810-e57pwgnx 25 27 and and CC cord-299810-e57pwgnx 25 28 now now RB cord-299810-e57pwgnx 25 29 called call VBN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 25 30 SARS SARS NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 25 31 - - HYPH cord-299810-e57pwgnx 25 32 CoV-2 CoV-2 NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 25 33 ) ) -RRB- cord-299810-e57pwgnx 25 34 has have VBZ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 25 35 been be VBN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 25 36 identified identify VBN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 25 37 as as IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 25 38 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 25 39 causative causative JJ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 25 40 agent agent NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 25 41 and and CC cord-299810-e57pwgnx 25 42 has have VBZ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 25 43 been be VBN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 25 44 rendered render VBN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 26 1 publishes publish VBZ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 26 2 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 26 3 genomic genomic JJ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 26 4 sequence sequence NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 26 5 . . . cord-299810-e57pwgnx 27 1 Oms Oms NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 27 2 on on IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 27 3 March March NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 27 4 11 11 CD cord-299810-e57pwgnx 27 5 , , , cord-299810-e57pwgnx 27 6 2020 2020 CD cord-299810-e57pwgnx 27 7 declared declare VBD cord-299810-e57pwgnx 27 8 that that IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 27 9 COVID-19 COVID-19 NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 27 10 can can MD cord-299810-e57pwgnx 27 11 be be VB cord-299810-e57pwgnx 27 12 defined define VBN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 27 13 as as IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 27 14 a a DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 27 15 pandemic pandemic NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 27 16 . . . cord-299810-e57pwgnx 28 1 After after IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 28 2 notification notification NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 28 3 of of IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 28 4 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 28 5 epidemic epidemic NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 28 6 by by IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 28 7 China China NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 28 8 , , , cord-299810-e57pwgnx 28 9 Italy Italy NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 28 10 immediately immediately RB cord-299810-e57pwgnx 28 11 recommended recommend VBD cord-299810-e57pwgnx 28 12 postponing postpone VBG cord-299810-e57pwgnx 28 13 unnecessary unnecessary JJ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 28 14 flights flight NNS cord-299810-e57pwgnx 28 15 to to IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 28 16 Wuhan Wuhan NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 28 17 and and CC cord-299810-e57pwgnx 28 18 , , , cord-299810-e57pwgnx 28 19 subsequently subsequently RB cord-299810-e57pwgnx 28 20 , , , cord-299810-e57pwgnx 28 21 with with IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 28 22 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 28 23 spread spread NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 28 24 of of IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 28 25 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 28 26 epidemic epidemic NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 28 27 , , , cord-299810-e57pwgnx 28 28 to to IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 28 29 all all DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 28 30 of of IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 28 31 China China NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 28 32 . . . cord-299810-e57pwgnx 29 1 Consequently consequently RB cord-299810-e57pwgnx 29 2 , , , cord-299810-e57pwgnx 29 3 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 29 4 latter latter NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 29 5 has have VBZ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 29 6 canceled cancel VBN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 29 7 all all DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 29 8 flights flight NNS cord-299810-e57pwgnx 29 9 from from IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 29 10 Wuhan Wuhan NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 29 11 . . . cord-299810-e57pwgnx 30 1 This this DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 30 2 disease disease NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 30 3 does do VBZ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 30 4 not not RB cord-299810-e57pwgnx 30 5 save save VB cord-299810-e57pwgnx 30 6 Italy Italy NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 30 7 that that WDT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 30 8 has have VBZ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 30 9 become become VBN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 30 10 a a DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 30 11 protected protected JJ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 30 12 area area NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 30 13 with with IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 30 14 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 30 15 DPCM DPCM NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 30 16 signed sign VBN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 30 17 on on IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 30 18 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 30 19 evening evening NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 30 20 of of IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 30 21 9 9 CD cord-299810-e57pwgnx 30 22 March March NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 30 23 by by IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 30 24 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 30 25 Prime Prime NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 30 26 Minister Minister NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 30 27 , , , cord-299810-e57pwgnx 30 28 Giuseppe Giuseppe NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 30 29 Conte Conte NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 30 30 , , , cord-299810-e57pwgnx 30 31 who who WP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 30 32 has have VBZ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 30 33 extended extend VBN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 30 34 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 30 35 restrictive restrictive JJ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 30 36 measures measure NNS cord-299810-e57pwgnx 30 37 already already RB cord-299810-e57pwgnx 30 38 applied apply VBN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 30 39 for for IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 30 40 Lombardy Lombardy NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 30 41 and and CC cord-299810-e57pwgnx 30 42 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 30 43 14 14 CD cord-299810-e57pwgnx 30 44 northern northern JJ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 30 45 provinces province NNS cord-299810-e57pwgnx 30 46 most most RBS cord-299810-e57pwgnx 30 47 affected affect VBN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 30 48 by by IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 30 49 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 30 50 coronavirus coronavirus NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 30 51 infection infection NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 30 52 to to IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 30 53 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 30 54 whole whole JJ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 30 55 national national JJ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 30 56 territory territory NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 30 57 . . . cord-299810-e57pwgnx 31 1 The the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 31 2 new new JJ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 31 3 action action NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 31 4 comes come VBZ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 31 5 into into IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 31 6 force force NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 31 7 on on IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 31 8 March March NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 31 9 10 10 CD cord-299810-e57pwgnx 31 10 and and CC cord-299810-e57pwgnx 31 11 will will MD cord-299810-e57pwgnx 31 12 take take VB cord-299810-e57pwgnx 31 13 effect effect NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 31 14 until until IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 31 15 April April NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 31 16 3 3 CD cord-299810-e57pwgnx 31 17 . . . cord-299810-e57pwgnx 32 1 Among among IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 32 2 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 32 3 main main JJ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 32 4 innovations innovation NNS cord-299810-e57pwgnx 32 5 : : : cord-299810-e57pwgnx 32 6 it -PRON- PRP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 32 7 limits limit VBZ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 32 8 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 32 9 movement movement NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 32 10 of of IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 32 11 people people NNS cord-299810-e57pwgnx 32 12 , , , cord-299810-e57pwgnx 32 13 blocks block VBZ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 32 14 sporting sporting NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 32 15 events event NNS cord-299810-e57pwgnx 32 16 , , , cord-299810-e57pwgnx 32 17 suspends suspend VBZ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 32 18 teaching teaching NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 32 19 activities activity NNS cord-299810-e57pwgnx 32 20 in in IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 32 21 schools school NNS cord-299810-e57pwgnx 32 22 and and CC cord-299810-e57pwgnx 32 23 universities university NNS cord-299810-e57pwgnx 32 24 throughout throughout IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 32 25 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 32 26 country country NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 32 27 until until IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 32 28 April April NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 32 29 3 3 CD cord-299810-e57pwgnx 32 30 . . . cord-299810-e57pwgnx 33 1 With with IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 33 2 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 33 3 new new JJ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 33 4 ordinance ordinance NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 33 5 of of IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 33 6 22 22 CD cord-299810-e57pwgnx 33 7 March March NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 33 8 2020 2020 CD cord-299810-e57pwgnx 33 9 issued issue VBN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 33 10 by by IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 33 11 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 33 12 Minister Minister NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 33 13 of of IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 33 14 Health Health NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 33 15 and and CC cord-299810-e57pwgnx 33 16 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 33 17 Minister Minister NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 33 18 of of IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 33 19 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 33 20 Interior Interior NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 33 21 , , , cord-299810-e57pwgnx 33 22 from from IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 33 23 22 22 CD cord-299810-e57pwgnx 33 24 March March NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 33 25 people people NNS cord-299810-e57pwgnx 33 26 are be VBP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 33 27 prohibited prohibit VBN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 33 28 from from IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 33 29 moving move VBG cord-299810-e57pwgnx 33 30 with with IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 33 31 public public JJ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 33 32 or or CC cord-299810-e57pwgnx 33 33 private private JJ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 33 34 trasportation trasportation NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 33 35 in in IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 33 36 a a DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 33 37 municipality municipality NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 33 38 other other JJ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 33 39 than than IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 33 40 that that DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 33 41 in in IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 33 42 which which WDT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 33 43 they -PRON- PRP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 33 44 are be VBP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 33 45 located locate VBN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 33 46 , , , cord-299810-e57pwgnx 33 47 except except IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 33 48 for for IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 33 49 proven prove VBN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 33 50 work work NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 33 51 needs need NNS cord-299810-e57pwgnx 33 52 , , , cord-299810-e57pwgnx 33 53 absolute absolute JJ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 33 54 urgency urgency NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 33 55 or or CC cord-299810-e57pwgnx 33 56 for for IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 33 57 health health NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 33 58 reasons reason NNS cord-299810-e57pwgnx 33 59 . . . cord-299810-e57pwgnx 34 1 [ [ -LRB- cord-299810-e57pwgnx 34 2 2 2 CD cord-299810-e57pwgnx 34 3 ] ] -RRB- cord-299810-e57pwgnx 35 1 Many many JJ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 35 2 growth growth NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 35 3 models model NNS cord-299810-e57pwgnx 35 4 have have VBP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 35 5 been be VBN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 35 6 very very RB cord-299810-e57pwgnx 35 7 recently recently RB cord-299810-e57pwgnx 35 8 applied apply VBN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 35 9 to to TO cord-299810-e57pwgnx 35 10 study study VB cord-299810-e57pwgnx 35 11 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 35 12 evolution evolution NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 35 13 of of IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 35 14 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 35 15 Covid-19 covid-19 NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 35 16 infection infection NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 35 17 [ [ -LRB- cord-299810-e57pwgnx 35 18 3 3 CD cord-299810-e57pwgnx 35 19 , , , cord-299810-e57pwgnx 35 20 4 4 CD cord-299810-e57pwgnx 35 21 , , , cord-299810-e57pwgnx 35 22 5 5 CD cord-299810-e57pwgnx 35 23 , , , cord-299810-e57pwgnx 35 24 6 6 CD cord-299810-e57pwgnx 35 25 , , , cord-299810-e57pwgnx 35 26 7 7 CD cord-299810-e57pwgnx 35 27 , , , cord-299810-e57pwgnx 35 28 8 8 CD cord-299810-e57pwgnx 35 29 , , , cord-299810-e57pwgnx 35 30 9 9 CD cord-299810-e57pwgnx 35 31 , , , cord-299810-e57pwgnx 35 32 10 10 CD cord-299810-e57pwgnx 35 33 ] ] -RRB- cord-299810-e57pwgnx 35 34 . . . cord-299810-e57pwgnx 36 1 In in IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 36 2 [ [ -LRB- cord-299810-e57pwgnx 36 3 1 1 CD cord-299810-e57pwgnx 36 4 ] ] -RRB- cord-299810-e57pwgnx 36 5 we -PRON- PRP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 36 6 tried try VBD cord-299810-e57pwgnx 36 7 to to TO cord-299810-e57pwgnx 36 8 analyze analyze VB cord-299810-e57pwgnx 36 9 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 36 10 time time NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 36 11 evolution evolution NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 36 12 of of IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 36 13 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 36 14 Sars Sars NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 36 15 - - HYPH cord-299810-e57pwgnx 36 16 Cov-2 Cov-2 NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 36 17 in in IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 36 18 Italy Italy NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 36 19 , , , cord-299810-e57pwgnx 36 20 using use VBG cord-299810-e57pwgnx 36 21 a a DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 36 22 Logistic logistic JJ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 36 23 model model NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 36 24 [ [ -LRB- cord-299810-e57pwgnx 36 25 11 11 CD cord-299810-e57pwgnx 36 26 ] ] -RRB- cord-299810-e57pwgnx 36 27 at at IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 36 28 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 36 29 beginning beginning NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 36 30 of of IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 36 31 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 36 32 study study NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 36 33 and and CC cord-299810-e57pwgnx 36 34 after after IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 36 35 with with IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 36 36 a a DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 36 37 generalization generalization NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 36 38 of of IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 36 39 that that DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 36 40 model model NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 36 41 . . . cord-299810-e57pwgnx 37 1 The the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 37 2 Logistic logistic JJ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 37 3 behaviour behaviour NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 37 4 assumes assume VBZ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 37 5 that that IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 37 6 growth growth NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 37 7 stops stop VBZ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 37 8 when when WRB cord-299810-e57pwgnx 37 9 maximum maximum JJ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 37 10 sustainable sustainable JJ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 37 11 population population NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 37 12 density density NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 37 13 is be VBZ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 37 14 reached reach VBN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 37 15 through through IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 37 16 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 37 17 carrying carrying NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 37 18 capacity capacity NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 37 19 K K NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 37 20 that that WDT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 37 21 depends depend VBZ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 37 22 on on IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 37 23 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 37 24 environmental environmental JJ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 37 25 conditions condition NNS cord-299810-e57pwgnx 37 26 . . . cord-299810-e57pwgnx 38 1 For for IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 38 2 example example NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 38 3 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 38 4 ordinances ordinance NNS cord-299810-e57pwgnx 38 5 of of IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 38 6 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 38 7 Prime Prime NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 38 8 Minister Minister NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 38 9 G.Conte G.Conte NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 38 10 , , , cord-299810-e57pwgnx 38 11 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 38 12 people people NNS cord-299810-e57pwgnx 38 13 's 's POS cord-299810-e57pwgnx 38 14 hygiene hygiene NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 38 15 habits habit NNS cord-299810-e57pwgnx 38 16 are be VBP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 38 17 encoded encode VBN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 38 18 in in IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 38 19 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 38 20 carrying carrying NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 38 21 capacity capacity NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 38 22 K. K. NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 39 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 39 2 observe observe VBP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 39 3 as as IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 39 4 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 39 5 generalized generalized JJ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 39 6 model model NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 39 7 of of IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 39 8 [ [ -LRB- cord-299810-e57pwgnx 39 9 1 1 CD cord-299810-e57pwgnx 39 10 ] ] -RRB- cord-299810-e57pwgnx 39 11 works work VBZ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 39 12 very very RB cord-299810-e57pwgnx 39 13 well well RB cord-299810-e57pwgnx 39 14 until until IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 39 15 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 39 16 April April NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 39 17 7 7 CD cord-299810-e57pwgnx 39 18 . . . cord-299810-e57pwgnx 40 1 After after IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 40 2 this this DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 40 3 date date NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 40 4 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 40 5 large large JJ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 40 6 increase increase NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 40 7 in in IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 40 8 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 40 9 number number NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 40 10 of of IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 40 11 swabs swab NNS cord-299810-e57pwgnx 40 12 meant mean VBN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 40 13 that that IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 40 14 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 40 15 logistical logistical JJ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 40 16 behavior behavior NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 40 17 of of IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 40 18 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 40 19 infected infected JJ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 40 20 curve curve NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 40 21 no no RB cord-299810-e57pwgnx 40 22 longer long RBR cord-299810-e57pwgnx 40 23 worked work VBD cord-299810-e57pwgnx 40 24 . . . cord-299810-e57pwgnx 41 1 At at IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 41 2 first first RB cord-299810-e57pwgnx 41 3 in in IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 41 4 Italy Italy NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 41 5 , , , cord-299810-e57pwgnx 41 6 pharyngeal pharyngeal JJ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 41 7 swabs swab NNS cord-299810-e57pwgnx 41 8 were be VBD cord-299810-e57pwgnx 41 9 initially initially RB cord-299810-e57pwgnx 41 10 made make VBN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 41 11 only only RB cord-299810-e57pwgnx 41 12 on on IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 41 13 seriously seriously RB cord-299810-e57pwgnx 41 14 ill ill JJ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 41 15 people people NNS cord-299810-e57pwgnx 41 16 . . . cord-299810-e57pwgnx 42 1 This this DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 42 2 choice choice NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 42 3 gave give VBD cord-299810-e57pwgnx 42 4 us -PRON- PRP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 42 5 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 42 6 possibility possibility NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 42 7 to to TO cord-299810-e57pwgnx 42 8 have have VB cord-299810-e57pwgnx 42 9 a a DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 42 10 sample sample NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 42 11 of of IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 42 12 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 42 13 infected infect VBN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 42 14 that that IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 42 15 we -PRON- PRP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 42 16 can can MD cord-299810-e57pwgnx 42 17 describe describe VB cord-299810-e57pwgnx 42 18 with with IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 42 19 a a DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 42 20 single single JJ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 42 21 population population NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 42 22 model model NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 42 23 , , , cord-299810-e57pwgnx 42 24 after after IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 42 25 April April NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 42 26 7 7 CD cord-299810-e57pwgnx 42 27 it -PRON- PRP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 42 28 becomes become VBZ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 42 29 impossible impossible JJ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 42 30 . . . cord-299810-e57pwgnx 43 1 So so RB cord-299810-e57pwgnx 43 2 we -PRON- PRP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 43 3 decided decide VBD cord-299810-e57pwgnx 43 4 to to TO cord-299810-e57pwgnx 43 5 use use VB cord-299810-e57pwgnx 43 6 a a DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 43 7 different different JJ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 43 8 model model NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 43 9 to to TO cord-299810-e57pwgnx 43 10 describe describe VB cord-299810-e57pwgnx 43 11 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 43 12 new new JJ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 43 13 trend trend NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 43 14 of of IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 43 15 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 43 16 data datum NNS cord-299810-e57pwgnx 43 17 and and CC cord-299810-e57pwgnx 43 18 try try VB cord-299810-e57pwgnx 43 19 to to TO cord-299810-e57pwgnx 43 20 give give VB cord-299810-e57pwgnx 43 21 different different JJ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 43 22 scenarios scenario NNS cord-299810-e57pwgnx 43 23 of of IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 43 24 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 43 25 descent descent NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 43 26 phase phase NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 43 27 of of IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 43 28 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 43 29 virus virus NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 43 30 in in IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 43 31 Italy Italy NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 43 32 , , , cord-299810-e57pwgnx 43 33 in in IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 43 34 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 43 35 time time NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 43 36 window window NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 43 37 February February NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 43 38 24-May 24-may CD cord-299810-e57pwgnx 43 39 5 5 CD cord-299810-e57pwgnx 43 40 . . . cord-299810-e57pwgnx 44 1 In in IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 44 2 [ [ -LRB- cord-299810-e57pwgnx 44 3 1 1 CD cord-299810-e57pwgnx 44 4 ] ] -RRB- cord-299810-e57pwgnx 44 5 we -PRON- PRP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 44 6 described describe VBD cord-299810-e57pwgnx 44 7 two two CD cord-299810-e57pwgnx 44 8 different different JJ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 44 9 peaks peak NNS cord-299810-e57pwgnx 44 10 , , , cord-299810-e57pwgnx 44 11 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 44 12 peak peak NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 44 13 of of IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 44 14 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 44 15 infected infected JJ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 44 16 and and CC cord-299810-e57pwgnx 44 17 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 44 18 deaths death NNS cord-299810-e57pwgnx 44 19 one one CD cord-299810-e57pwgnx 44 20 . . . cord-299810-e57pwgnx 45 1 In in IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 45 2 this this DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 45 3 paper paper NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 45 4 we -PRON- PRP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 45 5 analyze analyze VBP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 45 6 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 45 7 peak peak NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 45 8 of of IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 45 9 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 45 10 currently currently RB cord-299810-e57pwgnx 45 11 infected infect VBN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 45 12 and and CC cord-299810-e57pwgnx 45 13 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 45 14 downhill downhill NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 45 15 of of IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 45 16 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 45 17 propagation propagation NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 45 18 of of IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 45 19 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 45 20 Sars Sars NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 45 21 - - HYPH cord-299810-e57pwgnx 45 22 Cov-2 Cov-2 NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 45 23 . . . cord-299810-e57pwgnx 46 1 To to TO cord-299810-e57pwgnx 46 2 do do VB cord-299810-e57pwgnx 46 3 this this DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 46 4 we -PRON- PRP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 46 5 define define VBP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 46 6 a a DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 46 7 new new JJ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 46 8 model model NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 46 9 similar similar JJ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 46 10 to to IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 46 11 a a DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 46 12 SIRD SIRD NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 46 13 ( ( -LRB- cord-299810-e57pwgnx 46 14 see see VB cord-299810-e57pwgnx 46 15 for for IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 46 16 example example NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 46 17 [ [ -LRB- cord-299810-e57pwgnx 46 18 7 7 CD cord-299810-e57pwgnx 46 19 ] ] -RRB- cord-299810-e57pwgnx 46 20 ) ) -RRB- cord-299810-e57pwgnx 46 21 , , , cord-299810-e57pwgnx 46 22 but but CC cord-299810-e57pwgnx 46 23 without without IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 46 24 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 46 25 population population NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 46 26 of of IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 46 27 supsceptibles supsceptible NNS cord-299810-e57pwgnx 46 28 , , , cord-299810-e57pwgnx 46 29 because because IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 46 30 there there EX cord-299810-e57pwgnx 46 31 are be VBP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 46 32 no no DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 46 33 criteria criterion NNS cord-299810-e57pwgnx 46 34 on on IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 46 35 defining define VBG cord-299810-e57pwgnx 46 36 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 46 37 susceptible susceptible JJ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 46 38 ones one NNS cord-299810-e57pwgnx 46 39 . . . cord-299810-e57pwgnx 47 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 47 2 consider consider VBP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 47 3 three three CD cord-299810-e57pwgnx 47 4 couple couple NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 47 5 differential differential NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 47 6 equations equation NNS cord-299810-e57pwgnx 47 7 for for IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 47 8 Infected infected JJ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 47 9 I(t I(t NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 47 10 ) ) -RRB- cord-299810-e57pwgnx 47 11 , , , cord-299810-e57pwgnx 47 12 Deaths Deaths NNPS cord-299810-e57pwgnx 47 13 D(t D(t NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 47 14 ) ) -RRB- cord-299810-e57pwgnx 47 15 and and CC cord-299810-e57pwgnx 47 16 Recovery Recovery NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 47 17 R(t R(t NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 47 18 ) ) -RRB- cord-299810-e57pwgnx 47 19 with with IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 47 20 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 47 21 following following JJ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 47 22 conservation conservation NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 47 23 law law NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 47 24 where where WRB cord-299810-e57pwgnx 47 25 P p NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 47 26 ( ( -LRB- cord-299810-e57pwgnx 47 27 t t NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 47 28 ) ) -RRB- cord-299810-e57pwgnx 47 29 represents represent VBZ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 47 30 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 47 31 currently currently RB cord-299810-e57pwgnx 47 32 infected infect VBN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 47 33 ( ( -LRB- cord-299810-e57pwgnx 47 34 or or CC cord-299810-e57pwgnx 47 35 positive positive JJ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 47 36 ) ) -RRB- cord-299810-e57pwgnx 47 37 . . . cord-299810-e57pwgnx 48 1 In in IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 48 2 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 48 3 last last JJ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 48 4 part part NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 48 5 of of IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 48 6 this this DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 48 7 article article NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 48 8 we -PRON- PRP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 48 9 observe observe VBP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 48 10 as as IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 48 11 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 48 12 following follow VBG cord-299810-e57pwgnx 48 13 ratio ratio NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 48 14 ( ( -LRB- cord-299810-e57pwgnx 48 15 infected infect VBN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 48 16 I(t I(t NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 48 17 i i NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 48 18 ) ) -RRB- cord-299810-e57pwgnx 48 19 over over IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 48 20 swabs swab NNS cord-299810-e57pwgnx 48 21 S(t S(t NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 48 22 i i CD cord-299810-e57pwgnx 48 23 ) ) -RRB- cord-299810-e57pwgnx 48 24 ) ) -RRB- cord-299810-e57pwgnx 48 25 is be VBZ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 48 26 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 48 27 most most RBS cord-299810-e57pwgnx 48 28 important important JJ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 48 29 parameter parameter NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 48 30 to to TO cord-299810-e57pwgnx 48 31 describe describe VB cord-299810-e57pwgnx 48 32 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 48 33 evolution evolution NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 48 34 of of IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 48 35 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 48 36 Sars Sars NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 48 37 - - HYPH cord-299810-e57pwgnx 48 38 Cov-2 Cov-2 NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 48 39 . . . cord-299810-e57pwgnx 49 1 Indeed indeed RB cord-299810-e57pwgnx 49 2 , , , cord-299810-e57pwgnx 49 3 we -PRON- PRP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 49 4 can can MD cord-299810-e57pwgnx 49 5 describe describe VB cord-299810-e57pwgnx 49 6 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 49 7 trend trend NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 49 8 of of IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 49 9 this this DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 49 10 quantity quantity NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 49 11 only only RB cord-299810-e57pwgnx 49 12 with with IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 49 13 a a DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 49 14 generalized generalize VBN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 49 15 Logistic logistic JJ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 49 16 model model NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 49 17 with with IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 49 18 4 4 CD cord-299810-e57pwgnx 49 19 parameters parameter NNS cord-299810-e57pwgnx 49 20 even even RB cord-299810-e57pwgnx 49 21 with with IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 49 22 data datum NNS cord-299810-e57pwgnx 49 23 after after IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 49 24 April April NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 49 25 7 7 CD cord-299810-e57pwgnx 49 26 . . . cord-299810-e57pwgnx 50 1 This this DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 50 2 behavior behavior NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 50 3 suggest suggest VBP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 50 4 us -PRON- PRP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 50 5 to to TO cord-299810-e57pwgnx 50 6 use use VB cord-299810-e57pwgnx 50 7 this this DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 50 8 model model NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 50 9 for for IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 50 10 a a DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 50 11 future future JJ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 50 12 epidemic epidemic NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 50 13 of of IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 50 14 this this DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 50 15 virus virus NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 50 16 . . . cord-299810-e57pwgnx 51 1 If if IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 51 2 we -PRON- PRP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 51 3 will will MD cord-299810-e57pwgnx 51 4 able able VB cord-299810-e57pwgnx 51 5 to to TO cord-299810-e57pwgnx 51 6 perform perform VB cord-299810-e57pwgnx 51 7 a a DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 51 8 greater great JJR cord-299810-e57pwgnx 51 9 and and CC cord-299810-e57pwgnx 51 10 constant constant JJ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 51 11 number number NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 51 12 of of IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 51 13 swabs swab NNS cord-299810-e57pwgnx 51 14 everyday everyday RB cord-299810-e57pwgnx 51 15 , , , cord-299810-e57pwgnx 51 16 using use VBG cord-299810-e57pwgnx 51 17 this this DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 51 18 model model NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 51 19 , , , cord-299810-e57pwgnx 51 20 we -PRON- PRP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 51 21 may may MD cord-299810-e57pwgnx 51 22 have have VB cord-299810-e57pwgnx 51 23 better well JJR cord-299810-e57pwgnx 51 24 control control NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 51 25 over over IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 51 26 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 51 27 contagion contagion NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 51 28 curve curve NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 51 29 , , , cord-299810-e57pwgnx 51 30 and and CC cord-299810-e57pwgnx 51 31 consequently consequently RB cord-299810-e57pwgnx 51 32 over over IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 51 33 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 51 34 number number NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 51 35 of of IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 51 36 deaths death NNS cord-299810-e57pwgnx 51 37 . . . cord-299810-e57pwgnx 52 1 Our -PRON- PRP$ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 52 2 idea idea NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 52 3 is be VBZ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 52 4 to to TO cord-299810-e57pwgnx 52 5 use use VB cord-299810-e57pwgnx 52 6 a a DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 52 7 model model NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 52 8 that that WDT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 52 9 adapts adapt VBZ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 52 10 to to IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 52 11 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 52 12 data datum NNS cord-299810-e57pwgnx 52 13 of of IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 52 14 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 52 15 problem problem NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 52 16 . . . cord-299810-e57pwgnx 53 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 53 2 explain explain VBP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 53 3 better well RBR cord-299810-e57pwgnx 53 4 . . . cord-299810-e57pwgnx 54 1 Let let VB cord-299810-e57pwgnx 54 2 's -PRON- PRP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 54 3 consider consider VB cord-299810-e57pwgnx 54 4 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 54 5 following follow VBG cord-299810-e57pwgnx 54 6 data datum NNS cord-299810-e57pwgnx 54 7 : : : cord-299810-e57pwgnx 54 8 Some some DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 54 9 comments comment NNS cord-299810-e57pwgnx 54 10 about about IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 54 11 these these DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 54 12 data datum NNS cord-299810-e57pwgnx 54 13 : : : cord-299810-e57pwgnx 54 14 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 54 15 points point NNS cord-299810-e57pwgnx 54 16 1 1 CD cord-299810-e57pwgnx 54 17 ) ) -RRB- cord-299810-e57pwgnx 54 18 and and CC cord-299810-e57pwgnx 54 19 2 2 LS cord-299810-e57pwgnx 54 20 ) ) -RRB- cord-299810-e57pwgnx 54 21 describe describe VBP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 54 22 perfectly perfectly RB cord-299810-e57pwgnx 54 23 that that IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 54 24 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 54 25 sample sample NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 54 26 of of IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 54 27 infected infected JJ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 54 28 is be VBZ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 54 29 not not RB cord-299810-e57pwgnx 54 30 clean clean JJ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 54 31 ; ; : cord-299810-e57pwgnx 54 32 at at IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 54 33 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 54 34 beginning beginning NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 54 35 of of IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 54 36 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 54 37 contagion contagion NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 54 38 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 54 39 swabs swab NNS cord-299810-e57pwgnx 54 40 are be VBP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 54 41 performed perform VBN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 54 42 only only RB cord-299810-e57pwgnx 54 43 on on IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 54 44 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 54 45 severe severe JJ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 54 46 infected infect VBN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 54 47 , , , cord-299810-e57pwgnx 54 48 after after IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 54 49 1 1 CD cord-299810-e57pwgnx 54 50 month month NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 54 51 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 54 52 number number NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 54 53 of of IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 54 54 swabs swab NNS cord-299810-e57pwgnx 54 55 are be VBP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 54 56 increased increase VBN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 54 57 of of IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 54 58 a a DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 54 59 factor factor NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 54 60 6 6 CD cord-299810-e57pwgnx 54 61 and and CC cord-299810-e57pwgnx 54 62 consequently consequently RB cord-299810-e57pwgnx 54 63 also also RB cord-299810-e57pwgnx 54 64 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 54 65 midly midly RB cord-299810-e57pwgnx 54 66 infected infect VBN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 54 67 are be VBP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 54 68 detected detect VBN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 54 69 . . . cord-299810-e57pwgnx 55 1 Point point NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 55 2 3 3 CD cord-299810-e57pwgnx 55 3 ) ) -RRB- cord-299810-e57pwgnx 55 4 tells tell VBZ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 55 5 us -PRON- PRP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 55 6 that that IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 55 7 there there EX cord-299810-e57pwgnx 55 8 is be VBZ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 55 9 probably probably RB cord-299810-e57pwgnx 55 10 an an DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 55 11 incredible incredible JJ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 55 12 number number NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 55 13 of of IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 55 14 asymptomatics asymptomatic NNS cord-299810-e57pwgnx 55 15 as as IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 55 16 a a DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 55 17 source source NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 55 18 of of IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 55 19 severe severe JJ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 55 20 infected infect VBN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 55 21 , , , cord-299810-e57pwgnx 55 22 we -PRON- PRP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 55 23 have have VBP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 55 24 no no DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 55 25 control control NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 55 26 about about IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 55 27 it -PRON- PRP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 55 28 . . . cord-299810-e57pwgnx 56 1 Points point NNS cord-299810-e57pwgnx 56 2 4 4 CD cord-299810-e57pwgnx 56 3 ) ) -RRB- cord-299810-e57pwgnx 56 4 , , . cord-299810-e57pwgnx 57 1 5 5 LS cord-299810-e57pwgnx 57 2 ) ) -RRB- cord-299810-e57pwgnx 57 3 indicate indicate VBP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 57 4 that that IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 57 5 while while IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 57 6 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 57 7 death death NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 57 8 data data NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 57 9 is be VBZ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 57 10 under under IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 57 11 control control NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 57 12 , , , cord-299810-e57pwgnx 57 13 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 57 14 healed heal VBN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 57 15 data datum NNS cord-299810-e57pwgnx 57 16 are be VBP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 57 17 very very RB cord-299810-e57pwgnx 57 18 oscillating oscillating JJ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 57 19 in in IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 57 20 time time NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 57 21 . . . cord-299810-e57pwgnx 58 1 Finally finally RB cord-299810-e57pwgnx 58 2 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 58 3 points point NNS cord-299810-e57pwgnx 58 4 6 6 CD cord-299810-e57pwgnx 58 5 ) ) -RRB- cord-299810-e57pwgnx 58 6 tells tell VBZ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 58 7 us -PRON- PRP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 58 8 that that DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 58 9 contribution contribution NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 58 10 of of IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 58 11 asymptomatics asymptomatics NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 58 12 , , , cord-299810-e57pwgnx 58 13 portrayed portray VBN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 58 14 in in IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 58 15 [ [ -LRB- cord-299810-e57pwgnx 58 16 1 1 CD cord-299810-e57pwgnx 58 17 ] ] -RRB- cord-299810-e57pwgnx 58 18 , , , cord-299810-e57pwgnx 58 19 changes change NNS cord-299810-e57pwgnx 58 20 in in IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 58 21 time time NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 58 22 , , , cord-299810-e57pwgnx 58 23 indeed indeed RB cord-299810-e57pwgnx 58 24 from from IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 58 25 April April NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 58 26 6 6 CD cord-299810-e57pwgnx 58 27 - - SYM cord-299810-e57pwgnx 58 28 7 7 CD cord-299810-e57pwgnx 58 29 ( ( -LRB- cord-299810-e57pwgnx 58 30 14 14 CD cord-299810-e57pwgnx 58 31 - - SYM cord-299810-e57pwgnx 58 32 15 15 CD cord-299810-e57pwgnx 58 33 days day NNS cord-299810-e57pwgnx 58 34 after after IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 58 35 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 58 36 second second JJ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 58 37 LD LD NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 58 38 , , , cord-299810-e57pwgnx 58 39 i.e. i.e. FW cord-299810-e57pwgnx 58 40 an an DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 58 41 incubation incubation NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 58 42 time time NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 58 43 ) ) -RRB- cord-299810-e57pwgnx 59 1 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 59 2 generalized generalized JJ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 59 3 Logistic logistic JJ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 59 4 description description NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 59 5 fails fail VBZ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 59 6 . . . cord-299810-e57pwgnx 60 1 After after IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 60 2 these these DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 60 3 considerations consideration NNS cord-299810-e57pwgnx 60 4 we -PRON- PRP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 60 5 have have VBP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 60 6 decided decide VBN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 60 7 to to TO cord-299810-e57pwgnx 60 8 couple couple VB cord-299810-e57pwgnx 60 9 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 60 10 following follow VBG cord-299810-e57pwgnx 60 11 equations equation NNS cord-299810-e57pwgnx 60 12 : : : cord-299810-e57pwgnx 60 13 with with IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 60 14 a a DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 60 15 conservation conservation NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 60 16 law law NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 60 17 where where WRB cord-299810-e57pwgnx 60 18 P p NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 60 19 ( ( -LRB- cord-299810-e57pwgnx 60 20 t t NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 60 21 ) ) -RRB- cord-299810-e57pwgnx 60 22 represents represent VBZ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 60 23 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 60 24 currently currently RB cord-299810-e57pwgnx 60 25 infected infect VBN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 60 26 ( ( -LRB- cord-299810-e57pwgnx 60 27 or or CC cord-299810-e57pwgnx 60 28 positive positive JJ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 60 29 ) ) -RRB- cord-299810-e57pwgnx 60 30 . . . cord-299810-e57pwgnx 61 1 The the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 61 2 parameters parameter NNS cord-299810-e57pwgnx 61 3 r r NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 61 4 0 0 CD cord-299810-e57pwgnx 61 5 represents represent VBZ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 61 6 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 61 7 rates rate NNS cord-299810-e57pwgnx 61 8 of of IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 61 9 growth growth NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 61 10 of of IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 61 11 epidemic epidemic NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 61 12 , , , cord-299810-e57pwgnx 61 13 K K NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 61 14 is be VBZ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 61 15 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 61 16 carrying carrying NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 61 17 capacity capacity NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 61 18 for for IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 61 19 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 61 20 classical classical JJ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 61 21 logistic logistic JJ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 61 22 model model NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 62 1 , , , cord-299810-e57pwgnx 62 2 α α NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 62 3 is be VBZ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 62 4 a a DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 62 5 constant constant NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 62 6 in in IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 62 7 order order NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 62 8 to to TO cord-299810-e57pwgnx 62 9 have have VB cord-299810-e57pwgnx 62 10 a a DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 62 11 power power NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 62 12 low low JJ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 62 13 initial initial JJ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 62 14 growth growth NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 62 15 before before IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 62 16 LD LD NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 62 17 , , , cord-299810-e57pwgnx 62 18 β β NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 62 19 is be VBZ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 62 20 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 62 21 exponent exponent NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 62 22 of of IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 62 23 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 62 24 second second JJ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 62 25 term term NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 62 26 of of IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 62 27 equation equation NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 62 28 1 1 CD cord-299810-e57pwgnx 62 29 that that WDT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 62 30 represents represent VBZ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 62 31 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 62 32 influence influence NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 62 33 of of IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 62 34 asymptomatic asymptomatic JJ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 62 35 ; ; : cord-299810-e57pwgnx 62 36 δ δ NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 62 37 , , , cord-299810-e57pwgnx 62 38 a a DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 62 39 correction correction NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 62 40 of of IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 62 41 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 62 42 quadratic quadratic JJ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 62 43 term term NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 62 44 of of IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 62 45 logistic logistic JJ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 62 46 , , , cord-299810-e57pwgnx 62 47 and and CC cord-299810-e57pwgnx 62 48 γ γ NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 62 49 are be VBP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 62 50 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 62 51 constant constant JJ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 62 52 parameters parameter NNS cord-299810-e57pwgnx 62 53 considering consider VBG cord-299810-e57pwgnx 62 54 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 62 55 influence influence NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 62 56 of of IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 62 57 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 62 58 government government NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 62 59 measures measure VBZ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 62 60 1 1 CD cord-299810-e57pwgnx 62 61 , , , cord-299810-e57pwgnx 62 62 K K NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 62 63 f f NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 62 64 is be VBZ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 62 65 a a DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 62 66 proportionality proportionality NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 62 67 constant constant JJ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 62 68 between between IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 62 69 deaths death NNS cord-299810-e57pwgnx 62 70 and and CC cord-299810-e57pwgnx 62 71 total total JJ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 62 72 number number NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 62 73 of of IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 62 74 infected infect VBN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 62 75 , , , cord-299810-e57pwgnx 62 76 while while IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 62 77 t t NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 62 78 d d NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 62 79 and and CC cord-299810-e57pwgnx 62 80 t t NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 62 81 r r NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 62 82 are be VBP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 62 83 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 62 84 delays delay NNS cord-299810-e57pwgnx 62 85 of of IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 62 86 deaths death NNS cord-299810-e57pwgnx 62 87 and and CC cord-299810-e57pwgnx 62 88 recoveries recovery NNS cord-299810-e57pwgnx 62 89 respect respect NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 62 90 to to IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 62 91 infected infected JJ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 62 92 respectively respectively RB cord-299810-e57pwgnx 62 93 ; ; : cord-299810-e57pwgnx 62 94 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 62 95 constant constant JJ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 62 96 A A NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 62 97 represents represent VBZ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 62 98 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 62 99 contribution contribution NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 62 100 of of IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 62 101 asymptomatic asymptomatic JJ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 62 102 people people NNS cord-299810-e57pwgnx 62 103 as as IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 62 104 introduced introduce VBN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 62 105 in in IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 62 106 [ [ -LRB- cord-299810-e57pwgnx 62 107 1 1 CD cord-299810-e57pwgnx 62 108 ] ] -RRB- cord-299810-e57pwgnx 62 109 and and CC cord-299810-e57pwgnx 62 110 finally finally RB cord-299810-e57pwgnx 62 111 t t NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 62 112 0 0 CD cord-299810-e57pwgnx 62 113 is be VBZ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 62 114 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 62 115 time time NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 62 116 of of IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 62 117 LD LD NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 62 118 start start NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 62 119 . . . cord-299810-e57pwgnx 63 1 A a DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 63 2 brief brief JJ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 63 3 consideration consideration NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 63 4 about about IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 63 5 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 63 6 function function NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 63 7 f f NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 63 8 ( ( -LRB- cord-299810-e57pwgnx 63 9 t t NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 63 10 ) ) -RRB- cord-299810-e57pwgnx 64 1 : : : cord-299810-e57pwgnx 64 2 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 64 3 great great JJ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 64 4 variability variability NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 64 5 of of IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 64 6 t t NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 64 7 r r NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 64 8 suggest suggest VBP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 64 9 us -PRON- PRP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 64 10 that that IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 64 11 only only RB cord-299810-e57pwgnx 64 12 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 64 13 parameter parameter NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 64 14 t t NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 64 15 r r NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 64 16 is be VBZ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 64 17 not not RB cord-299810-e57pwgnx 64 18 sufficient sufficient JJ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 64 19 to to TO cord-299810-e57pwgnx 64 20 describe describe VB cord-299810-e57pwgnx 64 21 correctly correctly RB cord-299810-e57pwgnx 64 22 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 64 23 function function NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 64 24 R(t R(t NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 64 25 ) ) -RRB- cord-299810-e57pwgnx 64 26 , , , cord-299810-e57pwgnx 64 27 so so RB cord-299810-e57pwgnx 64 28 we -PRON- PRP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 64 29 decided decide VBD cord-299810-e57pwgnx 64 30 to to TO cord-299810-e57pwgnx 64 31 introduce introduce VB cord-299810-e57pwgnx 64 32 a a DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 64 33 coefficient coefficient NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 64 34 time time NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 64 35 dependent dependent JJ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 64 36 . . . cord-299810-e57pwgnx 65 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 65 2 present present VBP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 65 3 two two CD cord-299810-e57pwgnx 65 4 different different JJ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 65 5 scenarios scenario NNS cord-299810-e57pwgnx 65 6 , , , cord-299810-e57pwgnx 65 7 in in IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 65 8 Fig.1 fig.1 NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 65 9 we -PRON- PRP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 65 10 consider consider VBP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 65 11 a a DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 65 12 linear linear JJ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 65 13 approximation approximation NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 65 14 f f NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 65 15 ( ( -LRB- cord-299810-e57pwgnx 65 16 t t NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 65 17 ) ) -RRB- cord-299810-e57pwgnx 66 1 = = NFP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 67 1 a a LS cord-299810-e57pwgnx 67 2 + + CC cord-299810-e57pwgnx 67 3 bt bt UH cord-299810-e57pwgnx 67 4 , , , cord-299810-e57pwgnx 67 5 while while IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 67 6 in in IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 67 7 Fig.2 Fig.2 NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 67 8 we -PRON- PRP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 67 9 consider consider VBP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 67 10 a a DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 67 11 quadratic quadratic JJ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 67 12 approximation approximation NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 67 13 f f NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 67 14 ( ( -LRB- cord-299810-e57pwgnx 67 15 t t NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 67 16 ) ) -RRB- cord-299810-e57pwgnx 67 17 = = NFP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 68 1 a a LS cord-299810-e57pwgnx 69 1 + + CC cord-299810-e57pwgnx 70 1 bt bt NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 70 2 + + CC cord-299810-e57pwgnx 71 1 ct ct NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 71 2 2 2 CD cord-299810-e57pwgnx 71 3 . . . cord-299810-e57pwgnx 72 1 This this DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 72 2 choice choice NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 72 3 is be VBZ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 72 4 not not RB cord-299810-e57pwgnx 72 5 random random JJ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 72 6 . . . cord-299810-e57pwgnx 73 1 Indeed indeed RB cord-299810-e57pwgnx 73 2 , , , cord-299810-e57pwgnx 73 3 considering consider VBG cord-299810-e57pwgnx 73 4 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 73 5 behaviour behaviour NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 73 6 of of IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 73 7 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 73 8 recovery recovery NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 73 9 time time NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 73 10 series series NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 73 11 in in IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 73 12 which which WDT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 73 13 a a DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 73 14 single single JJ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 73 15 recovery recovery NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 73 16 can can MD cord-299810-e57pwgnx 73 17 heal heal VB cord-299810-e57pwgnx 73 18 with with IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 73 19 some some DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 73 20 delay delay NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 73 21 in in IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 73 22 a a DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 73 23 window window NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 73 24 variable variable NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 73 25 from from IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 73 26 few few JJ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 73 27 days day NNS cord-299810-e57pwgnx 73 28 to to IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 73 29 two two CD cord-299810-e57pwgnx 73 30 months month NNS cord-299810-e57pwgnx 73 31 , , , cord-299810-e57pwgnx 73 32 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 73 33 correct correct JJ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 73 34 modeling modeling NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 73 35 could could MD cord-299810-e57pwgnx 73 36 be be VB cord-299810-e57pwgnx 73 37 a a DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 73 38 regressive regressive JJ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 73 39 linear linear JJ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 73 40 function function NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 73 41 of of IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 73 42 type type NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 73 43 R(t r(t NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 73 44 ) ) -RRB- cord-299810-e57pwgnx 74 1 = = NFP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 75 1 N N NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 76 1 i=1 i=1 NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 77 1 a a LS cord-299810-e57pwgnx 78 1 i i PRP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 79 1 * * NFP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 79 2 I(t I(t NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 79 3 − − NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 79 4 t t NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 79 5 i i NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 79 6 ) ) -RRB- cord-299810-e57pwgnx 79 7 ( ( -LRB- cord-299810-e57pwgnx 79 8 eventually eventually RB cord-299810-e57pwgnx 79 9 introducing introduce VBG cord-299810-e57pwgnx 79 10 also also RB cord-299810-e57pwgnx 79 11 no no DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 79 12 - - HYPH cord-299810-e57pwgnx 79 13 linear linear JJ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 79 14 term term NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 79 15 in in IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 79 16 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 79 17 series series NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 79 18 ) ) -RRB- cord-299810-e57pwgnx 79 19 , , , cord-299810-e57pwgnx 79 20 but but CC cord-299810-e57pwgnx 79 21 in in IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 79 22 this this DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 79 23 way way NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 79 24 we -PRON- PRP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 79 25 introduce introduce VBP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 79 26 many many JJ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 79 27 degree degree NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 79 28 of of IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 79 29 freedom freedom NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 79 30 how how WRB cord-299810-e57pwgnx 79 31 many many JJ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 79 32 are be VBP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 79 33 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 79 34 coefficient coefficient NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 80 1 a a DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 80 2 i i NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 80 3 of of IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 80 4 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 80 5 regressive regressive JJ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 80 6 function function NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 80 7 . . . cord-299810-e57pwgnx 81 1 Therefore therefore RB cord-299810-e57pwgnx 81 2 , , , cord-299810-e57pwgnx 81 3 we -PRON- PRP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 81 4 consider consider VBP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 81 5 an an DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 81 6 approximation approximation NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 81 7 using use VBG cord-299810-e57pwgnx 81 8 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 81 9 two two CD cord-299810-e57pwgnx 81 10 functions function NNS cord-299810-e57pwgnx 81 11 f f NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 81 12 ( ( -LRB- cord-299810-e57pwgnx 81 13 t t NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 81 14 ) ) -RRB- cord-299810-e57pwgnx 81 15 considered consider VBN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 81 16 above above RB cord-299810-e57pwgnx 81 17 . . . cord-299810-e57pwgnx 82 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 82 2 desumed desume VBD cord-299810-e57pwgnx 82 3 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 82 4 following follow VBG cord-299810-e57pwgnx 82 5 values value NNS cord-299810-e57pwgnx 82 6 for for IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 82 7 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 82 8 principal principal JJ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 82 9 parameters parameter NNS cord-299810-e57pwgnx 82 10 by by IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 82 11 means mean NNS cord-299810-e57pwgnx 82 12 of of IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 82 13 100 100 CD cord-299810-e57pwgnx 82 14 stochastic stochastic JJ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 82 15 simulation simulation NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 82 16 using use VBG cord-299810-e57pwgnx 82 17 direct direct JJ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 82 18 method method NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 82 19 Gillespie Gillespie NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 82 20 algorithm algorithm NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 82 21 adapted adapt VBN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 82 22 to to IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 82 23 nonautonomous nonautonomous JJ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 82 24 differential differential JJ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 82 25 equations equation NNS cord-299810-e57pwgnx 82 26 : : : cord-299810-e57pwgnx 83 1 t t NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 83 2 r r NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 83 3 = = NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 83 4 12 12 CD cord-299810-e57pwgnx 83 5 ± ± CD cord-299810-e57pwgnx 83 6 1 1 CD cord-299810-e57pwgnx 83 7 for for IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 83 8 quadratic quadratic JJ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 83 9 approximation approximation NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 83 10 . . . cord-299810-e57pwgnx 84 1 Some some DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 84 2 comments comment NNS cord-299810-e57pwgnx 84 3 about about IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 84 4 these these DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 84 5 values value NNS cord-299810-e57pwgnx 84 6 : : : cord-299810-e57pwgnx 84 7 with with IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 84 8 respect respect NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 84 9 to to IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 84 10 [ [ -LRB- cord-299810-e57pwgnx 84 11 1 1 CD cord-299810-e57pwgnx 84 12 ] ] -RRB- cord-299810-e57pwgnx 84 13 we -PRON- PRP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 84 14 observe observe VBP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 84 15 that that IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 84 16 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 84 17 Total total JJ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 84 18 number number NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 84 19 of of IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 84 20 infected infect VBN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 84 21 , , , cord-299810-e57pwgnx 84 22 positive positive JJ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 84 23 , , , cord-299810-e57pwgnx 84 24 recovery recovery NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 84 25 and and CC cord-299810-e57pwgnx 84 26 dead dead JJ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 84 27 10 10 CD cord-299810-e57pwgnx 84 28 5 5 CD cord-299810-e57pwgnx 84 29 Figure figure NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 84 30 2 2 CD cord-299810-e57pwgnx 84 31 : : : cord-299810-e57pwgnx 84 32 The the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 84 33 scenario scenario NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 84 34 with with IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 84 35 a a DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 84 36 quadratic quadratic JJ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 84 37 growth growth NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 84 38 for for IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 84 39 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 84 40 recoveries recovery NNS cord-299810-e57pwgnx 84 41 : : : cord-299810-e57pwgnx 84 42 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 84 43 black black JJ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 84 44 curve curve NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 84 45 represents represent VBZ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 84 46 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 84 47 deaths death NNS cord-299810-e57pwgnx 84 48 , , , cord-299810-e57pwgnx 84 49 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 84 50 red red JJ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 84 51 one one NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 84 52 for for IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 84 53 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 84 54 infected infected JJ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 84 55 , , , cord-299810-e57pwgnx 84 56 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 84 57 green green JJ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 84 58 one one NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 84 59 for for IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 84 60 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 84 61 recovery recovery NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 84 62 and and CC cord-299810-e57pwgnx 84 63 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 84 64 pink pink JJ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 84 65 one one NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 84 66 for for IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 84 67 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 84 68 currently currently RB cord-299810-e57pwgnx 84 69 infected infect VBN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 84 70 . . . cord-299810-e57pwgnx 85 1 peak peak NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 85 2 of of IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 85 3 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 85 4 severe severe JJ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 85 5 infected infected JJ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 85 6 is be VBZ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 85 7 correctly correctly RB cord-299810-e57pwgnx 85 8 estimated estimate VBN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 85 9 , , , cord-299810-e57pwgnx 85 10 i.e. i.e. FW cord-299810-e57pwgnx 85 11 t t NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 85 12 0 0 CD cord-299810-e57pwgnx 85 13 = = SYM cord-299810-e57pwgnx 85 14 24 24 CD cord-299810-e57pwgnx 85 15 − − CD cord-299810-e57pwgnx 85 16 26 26 CD cord-299810-e57pwgnx 85 17 March March NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 85 18 and and CC cord-299810-e57pwgnx 85 19 also also RB cord-299810-e57pwgnx 85 20 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 85 21 peak peak NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 85 22 of of IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 85 23 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 85 24 deaths death NNS cord-299810-e57pwgnx 85 25 , , , cord-299810-e57pwgnx 85 26 i.e. i.e. FW cord-299810-e57pwgnx 85 27 t t NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 85 28 0 0 CD cord-299810-e57pwgnx 85 29 = = SYM cord-299810-e57pwgnx 85 30 28 28 CD cord-299810-e57pwgnx 85 31 − − CD cord-299810-e57pwgnx 85 32 30 30 CD cord-299810-e57pwgnx 85 33 March March NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 85 34 ; ; : cord-299810-e57pwgnx 85 35 also also RB cord-299810-e57pwgnx 85 36 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 85 37 time time NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 85 38 delay delay NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 86 1 t t NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 86 2 d d NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 86 3 remained remain VBD cord-299810-e57pwgnx 86 4 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 86 5 same same JJ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 86 6 ; ; : cord-299810-e57pwgnx 86 7 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 86 8 same same JJ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 86 9 t t NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 86 10 r r NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 86 11 approaches approach VBZ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 86 12 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 86 13 experimental experimental JJ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 86 14 lower low JJR cord-299810-e57pwgnx 86 15 limit limit NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 86 16 in in IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 86 17 quadratic quadratic JJ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 86 18 approximation approximation NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 86 19 . . . cord-299810-e57pwgnx 87 1 With with IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 87 2 respect respect NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 87 3 to to IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 87 4 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 87 5 Logistic logistic JJ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 87 6 model model NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 87 7 r r NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 87 8 0 0 CD cord-299810-e57pwgnx 87 9 is be VBZ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 87 10 increased increase VBN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 87 11 while while IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 87 12 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 87 13 coefficient coefficient NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 87 14 δ δ NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 87 15 drops drop VBZ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 87 16 from from IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 87 17 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 87 18 value value NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 87 19 2 2 CD cord-299810-e57pwgnx 87 20 to to IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 87 21 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 87 22 value value NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 87 23 1.84 1.84 CD cord-299810-e57pwgnx 87 24 , , , cord-299810-e57pwgnx 87 25 i.e. i.e. FW cord-299810-e57pwgnx 87 26 we -PRON- PRP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 87 27 are be VBP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 87 28 considering consider VBG cord-299810-e57pwgnx 87 29 different different JJ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 87 30 models model NNS cord-299810-e57pwgnx 87 31 . . . cord-299810-e57pwgnx 88 1 In in IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 88 2 Fig Fig NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 88 3 . . . cord-299810-e57pwgnx 89 1 1 1 LS cord-299810-e57pwgnx 89 2 - - SYM cord-299810-e57pwgnx 89 3 2 2 CD cord-299810-e57pwgnx 89 4 we -PRON- PRP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 89 5 observe observe VBP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 89 6 as as IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 89 7 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 89 8 peak peak NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 89 9 of of IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 89 10 currently currently RB cord-299810-e57pwgnx 89 11 infected infect VBN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 89 12 is be VBZ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 89 13 close close JJ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 89 14 to to IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 89 15 April April NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 89 16 20 20 CD cord-299810-e57pwgnx 89 17 and and CC cord-299810-e57pwgnx 89 18 finally finally RB cord-299810-e57pwgnx 89 19 we -PRON- PRP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 89 20 give give VBP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 89 21 us -PRON- PRP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 89 22 our -PRON- PRP$ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 89 23 prevision prevision NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 89 24 for for IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 89 25 a a DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 89 26 linear linear JJ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 89 27 growth growth NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 89 28 for for IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 89 29 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 89 30 recoveries recovery NNS cord-299810-e57pwgnx 89 31 close close JJ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 89 32 to to IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 89 33 July July NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 89 34 10 10 CD cord-299810-e57pwgnx 89 35 ; ; : cord-299810-e57pwgnx 89 36 for for IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 89 37 a a DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 89 38 quadratic quadratic JJ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 89 39 growth growth NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 89 40 we -PRON- PRP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 89 41 have have VBP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 89 42 close close JJ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 89 43 to to IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 89 44 June June NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 89 45 20 20 CD cord-299810-e57pwgnx 89 46 . . . cord-299810-e57pwgnx 90 1 The the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 90 2 estimated estimate VBN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 90 3 numbers number NNS cord-299810-e57pwgnx 90 4 I(end I(end NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 90 5 ) ) -RRB- cord-299810-e57pwgnx 90 6 and and CC cord-299810-e57pwgnx 90 7 D(end D(end NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 90 8 ) ) -RRB- cord-299810-e57pwgnx 90 9 are be VBP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 90 10 very very RB cord-299810-e57pwgnx 90 11 close close JJ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 90 12 , , , cord-299810-e57pwgnx 90 13 but but CC cord-299810-e57pwgnx 90 14 it -PRON- PRP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 90 15 is be VBZ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 90 16 not not RB cord-299810-e57pwgnx 90 17 surprising surprising JJ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 90 18 : : : cord-299810-e57pwgnx 90 19 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 90 20 eqs eqs NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 90 21 . . . cord-299810-e57pwgnx 91 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-299810-e57pwgnx 91 2 3 3 LS cord-299810-e57pwgnx 91 3 ) ) -RRB- cord-299810-e57pwgnx 91 4 and and CC cord-299810-e57pwgnx 91 5 ( ( -LRB- cord-299810-e57pwgnx 91 6 4 4 LS cord-299810-e57pwgnx 91 7 ) ) -RRB- cord-299810-e57pwgnx 91 8 for for IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 91 9 total total JJ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 91 10 infected infected JJ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 91 11 head head NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 91 12 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 91 13 model model NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 91 14 , , , cord-299810-e57pwgnx 91 15 while while IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 91 16 f f NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 91 17 ( ( -LRB- cord-299810-e57pwgnx 91 18 t t NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 91 19 ) ) -RRB- cord-299810-e57pwgnx 91 20 is be VBZ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 91 21 present present JJ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 91 22 in in IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 91 23 eq eq NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 91 24 . . . cord-299810-e57pwgnx 92 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-299810-e57pwgnx 92 2 6 6 LS cord-299810-e57pwgnx 92 3 ) ) -RRB- cord-299810-e57pwgnx 92 4 that that WDT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 92 5 is be VBZ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 92 6 only only RB cord-299810-e57pwgnx 92 7 a a DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 92 8 proportionality proportionality NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 92 9 equation equation NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 92 10 . . . cord-299810-e57pwgnx 93 1 Obviously obviously RB cord-299810-e57pwgnx 93 2 a a DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 93 3 linear linear JJ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 93 4 approximation approximation NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 93 5 for for IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 93 6 f(t f(t NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 93 7 ) ) -RRB- cord-299810-e57pwgnx 93 8 leads lead VBZ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 93 9 to to IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 93 10 a a DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 93 11 slower slow JJR cord-299810-e57pwgnx 93 12 recovery recovery NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 93 13 curve curve NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 93 14 and and CC cord-299810-e57pwgnx 93 15 therefore therefore RB cord-299810-e57pwgnx 93 16 a a DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 93 17 small small JJ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 93 18 increase increase NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 93 19 of of IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 93 20 infected infect VBN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 93 21 . . . cord-299810-e57pwgnx 94 1 Now now RB cord-299810-e57pwgnx 94 2 we -PRON- PRP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 94 3 consider consider VBP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 94 4 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 94 5 following following JJ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 94 6 parameter parameter NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 94 7 : : : cord-299810-e57pwgnx 94 8 that that DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 94 9 represents represent VBZ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 94 10 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 94 11 number number NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 94 12 of of IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 94 13 infected infected JJ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 94 14 normalized normalize VBN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 94 15 with with IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 94 16 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 94 17 number number NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 94 18 of of IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 94 19 swabs swab NNS cord-299810-e57pwgnx 94 20 S(t S(t NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 94 21 i i CD cord-299810-e57pwgnx 94 22 ) ) -RRB- cord-299810-e57pwgnx 94 23 . . . cord-299810-e57pwgnx 95 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 95 2 study study VBP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 95 3 this this DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 95 4 quantity quantity NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 95 5 with with IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 95 6 generalized generalized JJ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 95 7 Logistic logistic JJ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 95 8 equation equation NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 95 9 used use VBN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 95 10 in in IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 95 11 [ [ -LRB- cord-299810-e57pwgnx 95 12 1 1 CD cord-299810-e57pwgnx 95 13 ] ] -RRB- cord-299810-e57pwgnx 95 14 : : : cord-299810-e57pwgnx 95 15 where where WRB cord-299810-e57pwgnx 95 16 α α NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 95 17 , , , cord-299810-e57pwgnx 95 18 r r NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 95 19 0 0 CD cord-299810-e57pwgnx 95 20 , , , cord-299810-e57pwgnx 95 21 K K NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 95 22 and and CC cord-299810-e57pwgnx 95 23 A A NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 95 24 have have VBP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 95 25 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 95 26 same same JJ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 95 27 meaning meaning NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 95 28 used use VBN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 95 29 in in IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 95 30 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 95 31 previous previous JJ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 95 32 section section NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 95 33 . . . cord-299810-e57pwgnx 96 1 Compared compare VBN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 96 2 to to IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 96 3 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 96 4 previous previous JJ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 96 5 section section NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 96 6 we -PRON- PRP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 96 7 observe observe VBP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 96 8 as as IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 96 9 studying study VBG cord-299810-e57pwgnx 96 10 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 96 11 parameter parameter NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 96 12 I -PRON- PRP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 96 13 norm norm NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 96 14 ( ( -LRB- cord-299810-e57pwgnx 97 1 t t NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 97 2 i i NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 97 3 ) ) -RRB- cord-299810-e57pwgnx 98 1 we -PRON- PRP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 98 2 can can MD cord-299810-e57pwgnx 98 3 describe describe VB cord-299810-e57pwgnx 98 4 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 98 5 contagion contagion NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 98 6 with with IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 98 7 a a DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 98 8 simple simple JJ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 98 9 logistic logistic JJ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 98 10 equation equation NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 98 11 and and CC cord-299810-e57pwgnx 98 12 without without IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 98 13 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 98 14 phenomenological phenomenological JJ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 98 15 terms term NNS cord-299810-e57pwgnx 98 16 introduced introduce VBN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 98 17 in in IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 98 18 eqs.(3)- eqs.(3)- NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 98 19 ( ( -LRB- cord-299810-e57pwgnx 98 20 6 6 CD cord-299810-e57pwgnx 98 21 ) ) -RRB- cord-299810-e57pwgnx 98 22 . . . cord-299810-e57pwgnx 99 1 In in IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 99 2 order order NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 99 3 to to TO cord-299810-e57pwgnx 99 4 calibrate calibrate VB cord-299810-e57pwgnx 99 5 this this DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 99 6 model model NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 99 7 in in IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 99 8 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 99 9 best good JJS cord-299810-e57pwgnx 99 10 way way NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 99 11 possible possible JJ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 99 12 we -PRON- PRP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 99 13 use use VBP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 99 14 two two CD cord-299810-e57pwgnx 99 15 algorithms algorithm NNS cord-299810-e57pwgnx 99 16 , , , cord-299810-e57pwgnx 99 17 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 99 18 first first JJ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 99 19 one one NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 99 20 based base VBN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 99 21 on on IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 99 22 simulated simulated JJ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 99 23 annealing anneal VBG cord-299810-e57pwgnx 99 24 [ [ -LRB- cord-299810-e57pwgnx 99 25 16 16 CD cord-299810-e57pwgnx 99 26 ] ] -RRB- cord-299810-e57pwgnx 99 27 and and CC cord-299810-e57pwgnx 99 28 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 99 29 second second JJ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 99 30 one one NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 99 31 on on IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 99 32 optimized optimize VBN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 99 33 simplex simplex NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 99 34 [ [ -LRB- cord-299810-e57pwgnx 99 35 17 17 CD cord-299810-e57pwgnx 99 36 ] ] -RRB- cord-299810-e57pwgnx 99 37 . . . cord-299810-e57pwgnx 100 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 100 2 evaluate evaluate VBP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 100 3 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 100 4 function function NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 100 5 error error NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 100 6 defined define VBN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 100 7 as as IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 100 8 where where WRB cord-299810-e57pwgnx 100 9 x x NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 100 10 i i PRP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 100 11 is be VBZ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 100 12 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 100 13 real real JJ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 100 14 data datum NNS cord-299810-e57pwgnx 100 15 at at IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 100 16 day day NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 101 1 i i PRP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 101 2 , , , cord-299810-e57pwgnx 101 3 y y NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 101 4 i i NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 101 5 ( ( -LRB- cord-299810-e57pwgnx 101 6 p p NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 101 7 ) ) -RRB- cord-299810-e57pwgnx 101 8 is be VBZ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 101 9 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 101 10 correspondent correspondent NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 101 11 output output NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 101 12 of of IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 101 13 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 101 14 model model NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 101 15 depending depend VBG cord-299810-e57pwgnx 101 16 of of IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 101 17 vector vector NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 101 18 parameter parameter NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 101 19 p p NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 101 20 and and CC cord-299810-e57pwgnx 102 1 w w NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 103 1 i i PRP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 103 2 is be VBZ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 103 3 a a DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 103 4 generic generic JJ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 103 5 weight weight NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 103 6 that that IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 103 7 we -PRON- PRP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 103 8 can can MD cord-299810-e57pwgnx 103 9 use use VB cord-299810-e57pwgnx 103 10 or or CC cord-299810-e57pwgnx 103 11 can can MD cord-299810-e57pwgnx 103 12 be be VB cord-299810-e57pwgnx 103 13 equal equal JJ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 103 14 to to IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 103 15 one one CD cord-299810-e57pwgnx 103 16 . . . cord-299810-e57pwgnx 104 1 For for IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 104 2 our -PRON- PRP$ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 104 3 purpose purpose NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 104 4 we -PRON- PRP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 104 5 adopt adopt VBP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 104 6 as as IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 104 7 weight weight NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 104 8 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 104 9 derivative derivative NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 104 10 of of IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 104 11 data datum NNS cord-299810-e57pwgnx 104 12 or or CC cord-299810-e57pwgnx 104 13 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 104 14 data datum NNS cord-299810-e57pwgnx 104 15 at at IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 104 16 time time NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 104 17 ( ( -LRB- cord-299810-e57pwgnx 104 18 day day NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 104 19 ) ) -RRB- cord-299810-e57pwgnx 105 1 i i PRP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 105 2 : : : cord-299810-e57pwgnx 105 3 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 105 4 use use NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 105 5 of of IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 105 6 derivative derivative JJ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 105 7 allows allow NNS cord-299810-e57pwgnx 105 8 to to TO cord-299810-e57pwgnx 105 9 calibrate calibrate VB cord-299810-e57pwgnx 105 10 better better RB cord-299810-e57pwgnx 105 11 on on IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 105 12 average average JJ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 105 13 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 105 14 curve curve NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 105 15 , , , cord-299810-e57pwgnx 105 16 while while IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 105 17 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 105 18 use use NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 105 19 of of IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 105 20 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 105 21 data datum NNS cord-299810-e57pwgnx 105 22 as as IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 105 23 weight weight NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 105 24 permit permit NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 105 25 to to TO cord-299810-e57pwgnx 105 26 calibrate calibrate VB cord-299810-e57pwgnx 105 27 better well JJR cord-299810-e57pwgnx 105 28 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 105 29 data datum NNS cord-299810-e57pwgnx 105 30 of of IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 105 31 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 105 32 last last JJ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 105 33 part part NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 105 34 of of IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 105 35 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 105 36 curve curve NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 105 37 . . . cord-299810-e57pwgnx 106 1 In in IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 106 2 Fig Fig NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 106 3 . . . cord-299810-e57pwgnx 107 1 3 3 LS cord-299810-e57pwgnx 107 2 - - SYM cord-299810-e57pwgnx 107 3 4 4 CD cord-299810-e57pwgnx 107 4 Cumulative cumulative JJ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 107 5 rate rate NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 107 6 Real real JJ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 107 7 data data NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 107 8 Model model NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 107 9 Error error NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 107 10 +5 +5 NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 107 11 % % NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 107 12 Error error NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 107 13 -5 -5 NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 107 14 % % NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 107 15 Figure figure NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 107 16 6 6 CD cord-299810-e57pwgnx 107 17 : : : cord-299810-e57pwgnx 108 1 The the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 108 2 scenario scenario NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 108 3 of of IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 108 4 Italy Italy NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 108 5 minus minus IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 108 6 Lombardia Lombardia NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 108 7 with with IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 108 8 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 108 9 derivative derivative JJ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 108 10 weight weight NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 108 11 . . . cord-299810-e57pwgnx 109 1 for for IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 109 2 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 109 3 parameters parameter NNS cord-299810-e57pwgnx 109 4 of of IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 109 5 Fig Fig NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 109 6 . . . cord-299810-e57pwgnx 110 1 4 4 CD cord-299810-e57pwgnx 110 2 r r NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 110 3 0 0 CD cord-299810-e57pwgnx 110 4 = = SYM cord-299810-e57pwgnx 110 5 0.178 0.178 CD cord-299810-e57pwgnx 110 6 ± ± CD cord-299810-e57pwgnx 110 7 0.015 0.015 CD cord-299810-e57pwgnx 110 8 , , , cord-299810-e57pwgnx 110 9 for for IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 110 10 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 110 11 parameters parameter NNS cord-299810-e57pwgnx 110 12 of of IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 110 13 Fig Fig NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 110 14 . . . cord-299810-e57pwgnx 111 1 5 5 CD cord-299810-e57pwgnx 111 2 r r NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 111 3 0 0 CD cord-299810-e57pwgnx 111 4 = = SYM cord-299810-e57pwgnx 111 5 0.143 0.143 CD cord-299810-e57pwgnx 111 6 ± ± CD cord-299810-e57pwgnx 111 7 0.015 0.015 CD cord-299810-e57pwgnx 111 8 , , , cord-299810-e57pwgnx 111 9 and and CC cord-299810-e57pwgnx 111 10 finally finally RB cord-299810-e57pwgnx 111 11 for for IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 111 12 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 111 13 parameters parameter NNS cord-299810-e57pwgnx 111 14 of of IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 111 15 Fig Fig NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 111 16 . . . cord-299810-e57pwgnx 112 1 6 6 CD cord-299810-e57pwgnx 112 2 r r NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 112 3 0 0 CD cord-299810-e57pwgnx 112 4 = = SYM cord-299810-e57pwgnx 112 5 0.143 0.143 CD cord-299810-e57pwgnx 112 6 ± ± CD cord-299810-e57pwgnx 112 7 0.015 0.015 CD cord-299810-e57pwgnx 112 8 , , , cord-299810-e57pwgnx 112 9 We -PRON- PRP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 112 10 observe observe VBP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 112 11 as as IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 112 12 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 112 13 quantity quantity NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 112 14 I -PRON- PRP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 112 15 norm norm NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 112 16 ( ( -LRB- cord-299810-e57pwgnx 112 17 t t NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 112 18 ) ) -RRB- cord-299810-e57pwgnx 112 19 is be VBZ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 112 20 probably probably RB cord-299810-e57pwgnx 112 21 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 112 22 most most RBS cord-299810-e57pwgnx 112 23 important important JJ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 112 24 quantity quantity NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 112 25 studying study VBG cord-299810-e57pwgnx 112 26 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 112 27 evolution evolution NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 112 28 of of IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 112 29 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 112 30 virus virus NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 112 31 ! ! . cord-299810-e57pwgnx 113 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 113 2 explain explain VBP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 113 3 better well RBR cord-299810-e57pwgnx 113 4 : : : cord-299810-e57pwgnx 113 5 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 113 6 contribution contribution NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 113 7 of of IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 113 8 asymptomatic asymptomatic JJ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 113 9 people people NNS cord-299810-e57pwgnx 113 10 is be VBZ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 113 11 essentially essentially RB cord-299810-e57pwgnx 113 12 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 113 13 same same JJ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 113 14 in in IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 113 15 Lombardia Lombardia NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 113 16 and and CC cord-299810-e57pwgnx 113 17 in in IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 113 18 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 113 19 rest rest NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 113 20 of of IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 113 21 Italy Italy NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 113 22 , , , cord-299810-e57pwgnx 113 23 while while IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 113 24 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 113 25 coefficient coefficient NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 113 26 r r NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 113 27 0 0 CD cord-299810-e57pwgnx 113 28 is be VBZ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 113 29 larger large JJR cord-299810-e57pwgnx 113 30 if if IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 113 31 we -PRON- PRP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 113 32 consider consider VBP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 113 33 Italy Italy NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 113 34 compared compare VBN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 113 35 to to IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 113 36 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 113 37 scenario scenario NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 113 38 of of IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 113 39 Italy Italy NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 113 40 minus minus CC cord-299810-e57pwgnx 113 41 Lombardy Lombardy NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 113 42 ; ; : cord-299810-e57pwgnx 113 43 this this DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 113 44 consideration consideration NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 113 45 is be VBZ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 113 46 extremely extremely RB cord-299810-e57pwgnx 113 47 coherent coherent JJ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 113 48 with with IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 113 49 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 113 50 data datum NNS cord-299810-e57pwgnx 113 51 : : : cord-299810-e57pwgnx 113 52 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 113 53 infected infect VBN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 113 54 of of IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 113 55 Lombardia Lombardia NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 113 56 region region NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 113 57 represent represent VBP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 113 58 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 113 59 37 37 CD cord-299810-e57pwgnx 113 60 % % NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 113 61 of of IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 113 62 all all PDT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 113 63 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 113 64 italian italian JJ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 113 65 infected infect VBN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 113 66 . . . cord-299810-e57pwgnx 114 1 Moreover moreover RB cord-299810-e57pwgnx 114 2 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 114 3 ratio ratio NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 114 4 infected infect VBN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 114 5 over over IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 114 6 swabs swab NNS cord-299810-e57pwgnx 114 7 is be VBZ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 114 8 a a DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 114 9 very very RB cord-299810-e57pwgnx 114 10 reliable reliable JJ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 114 11 parameter parameter NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 114 12 , , , cord-299810-e57pwgnx 114 13 we -PRON- PRP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 114 14 can can MD cord-299810-e57pwgnx 114 15 describe describe VB cord-299810-e57pwgnx 114 16 correctly correctly RB cord-299810-e57pwgnx 114 17 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 114 18 italian italian JJ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 114 19 situation situation NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 114 20 only only RB cord-299810-e57pwgnx 114 21 with with IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 114 22 4 4 CD cord-299810-e57pwgnx 114 23 parameter parameter NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 114 24 and and CC cord-299810-e57pwgnx 114 25 with with IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 114 26 a a DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 114 27 wellknown wellknown JJ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 114 28 model model NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 114 29 . . . cord-299810-e57pwgnx 115 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 115 2 stress stress VBP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 115 3 that that IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 115 4 in in IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 115 5 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 115 6 future future NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 115 7 if if IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 115 8 a a DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 115 9 nation nation NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 115 10 is be VBZ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 115 11 ready ready JJ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 115 12 to to TO cord-299810-e57pwgnx 115 13 carry carry VB cord-299810-e57pwgnx 115 14 out out RP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 115 15 a a DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 115 16 large large JJ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 115 17 and and CC cord-299810-e57pwgnx 115 18 constant constant JJ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 115 19 number number NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 115 20 of of IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 115 21 swabs swab NNS cord-299810-e57pwgnx 115 22 every every DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 115 23 day day NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 115 24 , , , cord-299810-e57pwgnx 115 25 using use VBG cord-299810-e57pwgnx 115 26 this this DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 115 27 model model NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 115 28 , , , cord-299810-e57pwgnx 115 29 we -PRON- PRP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 115 30 can can MD cord-299810-e57pwgnx 115 31 have have VB cord-299810-e57pwgnx 115 32 a a DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 115 33 reliable reliable JJ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 115 34 forecast forecast NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 115 35 of of IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 115 36 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 115 37 epidemic epidemic NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 115 38 ! ! . cord-299810-e57pwgnx 116 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 116 2 consider consider VBP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 116 3 also also RB cord-299810-e57pwgnx 116 4 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 116 5 scenario scenario NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 116 6 represented represent VBN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 116 7 by by IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 116 8 eq eq NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 116 9 . . . cord-299810-e57pwgnx 117 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-299810-e57pwgnx 117 2 19 19 CD cord-299810-e57pwgnx 117 3 ) ) -RRB- cord-299810-e57pwgnx 117 4 for for IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 117 5 Germany Germany NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 117 6 in in IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 117 7 Fig Fig NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 117 8 . . . cord-299810-e57pwgnx 117 9 _SP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 118 1 7 7 CD cord-299810-e57pwgnx 118 2 and and CC cord-299810-e57pwgnx 118 3 for for IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 118 4 USA USA NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 118 5 in in IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 118 6 Fig Fig NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 118 7 . . . cord-299810-e57pwgnx 119 1 8 8 CD cord-299810-e57pwgnx 119 2 . . . cord-299810-e57pwgnx 120 1 For for IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 120 2 Germany Germany NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 120 3 we -PRON- PRP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 120 4 study study VBP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 120 5 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 120 6 time time NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 120 7 evolution evolution NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 120 8 of of IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 120 9 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 120 10 Sars Sars NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 120 11 - - HYPH cord-299810-e57pwgnx 120 12 Cov-2 Cov-2 NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 120 13 in in IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 120 14 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 120 15 time time NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 120 16 window window NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 120 17 March March NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 120 18 8-May 8-may CD cord-299810-e57pwgnx 120 19 11 11 CD cord-299810-e57pwgnx 121 1 and and CC cord-299810-e57pwgnx 121 2 we -PRON- PRP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 121 3 obtain obtain VBP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 121 4 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 121 5 following follow VBG cord-299810-e57pwgnx 121 6 parameters parameter NNS cord-299810-e57pwgnx 121 7 For for IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 121 8 USA USA NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 122 1 we -PRON- PRP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 122 2 study study VBP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 122 3 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 122 4 contagion contagion NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 122 5 in in IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 122 6 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 122 7 time time NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 122 8 window window NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 122 9 March March NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 122 10 10-May 10-may CD cord-299810-e57pwgnx 122 11 11 11 CD cord-299810-e57pwgnx 123 1 and and CC cord-299810-e57pwgnx 123 2 we -PRON- PRP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 123 3 have have VBP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 123 4 these these DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 123 5 values value NNS cord-299810-e57pwgnx 123 6 for for IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 123 7 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 123 8 parameters parameter NNS cord-299810-e57pwgnx 123 9 speed speed NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 123 10 . . . cord-299810-e57pwgnx 124 1 Let let VB cord-299810-e57pwgnx 124 2 's -PRON- PRP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 124 3 try try VB cord-299810-e57pwgnx 124 4 to to TO cord-299810-e57pwgnx 124 5 justify justify VB cord-299810-e57pwgnx 124 6 this this DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 124 7 idea idea NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 124 8 : : : cord-299810-e57pwgnx 124 9 a a DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 124 10 different different JJ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 124 11 speed speed NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 124 12 may may MD cord-299810-e57pwgnx 124 13 depend depend VB cord-299810-e57pwgnx 124 14 on on IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 124 15 population population NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 124 16 density density NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 124 17 , , , cord-299810-e57pwgnx 124 18 work work NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 124 19 habits habit NNS cord-299810-e57pwgnx 124 20 and and CC cord-299810-e57pwgnx 124 21 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 124 22 number number NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 124 23 of of IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 124 24 swabs swab NNS cord-299810-e57pwgnx 124 25 at at IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 124 26 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 124 27 beginning beginning NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 124 28 of of IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 124 29 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 124 30 epidemic epidemic NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 124 31 . . . cord-299810-e57pwgnx 125 1 About about IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 125 2 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 125 3 last last JJ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 125 4 consideration consideration NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 125 5 we -PRON- PRP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 125 6 imagine imagine VBP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 125 7 to to TO cord-299810-e57pwgnx 125 8 immediately immediately RB cord-299810-e57pwgnx 125 9 carry carry VB cord-299810-e57pwgnx 125 10 out out RP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 125 11 a a DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 125 12 large large JJ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 125 13 number number NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 125 14 of of IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 125 15 swabs swab NNS cord-299810-e57pwgnx 125 16 : : : cord-299810-e57pwgnx 125 17 knowing know VBG cord-299810-e57pwgnx 125 18 as as RB cord-299810-e57pwgnx 125 19 soon soon RB cord-299810-e57pwgnx 125 20 as as IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 125 21 possible possible JJ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 125 22 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 125 23 largest large JJS cord-299810-e57pwgnx 125 24 possible possible JJ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 125 25 number number NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 125 26 of of IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 125 27 infected infected JJ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 125 28 means mean NNS cord-299810-e57pwgnx 125 29 limiting limit VBG cord-299810-e57pwgnx 125 30 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 125 31 contagion contagion NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 125 32 and and CC cord-299810-e57pwgnx 125 33 therefore therefore RB cord-299810-e57pwgnx 125 34 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 125 35 propagation propagation NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 125 36 speed speed NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 125 37 of of IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 125 38 virus virus NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 125 39 . . . cord-299810-e57pwgnx 126 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 126 2 described describe VBD cord-299810-e57pwgnx 126 3 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 126 4 evolution evolution NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 126 5 of of IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 126 6 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 126 7 Sars Sars NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 126 8 - - HYPH cord-299810-e57pwgnx 126 9 Cov-2 Cov-2 NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 126 10 in in IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 126 11 Italy Italy NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 126 12 in in IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 126 13 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 126 14 time time NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 126 15 window window NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 126 16 February February NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 126 17 24-May 24-may CD cord-299810-e57pwgnx 126 18 5 5 CD cord-299810-e57pwgnx 126 19 . . . cord-299810-e57pwgnx 127 1 To to TO cord-299810-e57pwgnx 127 2 do do VB cord-299810-e57pwgnx 127 3 this this DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 127 4 we -PRON- PRP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 127 5 have have VBP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 127 6 built build VBN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 127 7 a a DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 127 8 phenomenological phenomenological JJ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 127 9 growth growth NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 127 10 model model NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 127 11 adapted adapt VBN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 127 12 on on IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 127 13 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 127 14 data datum NNS cord-299810-e57pwgnx 127 15 of of IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 127 16 Civil Civil NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 127 17 Protection Protection NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 127 18 . . . cord-299810-e57pwgnx 128 1 With with IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 128 2 respect respect NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 128 3 to to IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 128 4 a a DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 128 5 classical classical JJ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 128 6 SiR(D sir(d NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 128 7 ) ) -RRB- cord-299810-e57pwgnx 128 8 model model NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 128 9 we -PRON- PRP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 128 10 did do VBD cord-299810-e57pwgnx 128 11 not not RB cord-299810-e57pwgnx 128 12 consider consider VB cord-299810-e57pwgnx 128 13 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 128 14 supsceptible supsceptible JJ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 128 15 population population NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 128 16 , , , cord-299810-e57pwgnx 128 17 because because IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 128 18 there there EX cord-299810-e57pwgnx 128 19 are be VBP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 128 20 not not RB cord-299810-e57pwgnx 128 21 medical medical JJ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 128 22 evidences evidence NNS cord-299810-e57pwgnx 128 23 on on IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 128 24 which which WDT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 128 25 sample sample NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 128 26 of of IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 128 27 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 128 28 population population NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 128 29 can can MD cord-299810-e57pwgnx 128 30 be be VB cord-299810-e57pwgnx 128 31 ill ill JJ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 128 32 . . . cord-299810-e57pwgnx 129 1 So so RB cord-299810-e57pwgnx 129 2 we -PRON- PRP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 129 3 have have VBP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 129 4 considered consider VBN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 129 5 three three CD cord-299810-e57pwgnx 129 6 couple couple NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 129 7 differential differential NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 129 8 equations equation NNS cord-299810-e57pwgnx 129 9 for for IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 129 10 Infected infected JJ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 129 11 I(t I(t NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 129 12 ) ) -RRB- cord-299810-e57pwgnx 129 13 , , , cord-299810-e57pwgnx 129 14 Deaths Deaths NNPS cord-299810-e57pwgnx 129 15 D(t D(t NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 129 16 ) ) -RRB- cord-299810-e57pwgnx 129 17 and and CC cord-299810-e57pwgnx 129 18 Recovery Recovery NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 129 19 R(t R(t NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 129 20 ) ) -RRB- cord-299810-e57pwgnx 129 21 with with IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 129 22 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 129 23 a a DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 129 24 conservation conservation NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 129 25 law law NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 129 26 including include VBG cord-299810-e57pwgnx 129 27 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 129 28 currently currently RB cord-299810-e57pwgnx 129 29 positive positive JJ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 129 30 population population NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 129 31 P(t p(t NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 129 32 ) ) -RRB- cord-299810-e57pwgnx 129 33 . . . cord-299810-e57pwgnx 130 1 As as IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 130 2 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 130 3 time time NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 130 4 delay delay NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 130 5 between between IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 130 6 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 130 7 onset onset NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 130 8 of of IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 130 9 symptoms symptom NNS cord-299810-e57pwgnx 130 10 and and CC cord-299810-e57pwgnx 130 11 healing healing NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 130 12 t t NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 130 13 r r NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 130 14 days day NNS cord-299810-e57pwgnx 130 15 is be VBZ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 130 16 a a DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 130 17 very very RB cord-299810-e57pwgnx 130 18 oscillating oscillating JJ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 130 19 parameter parameter NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 130 20 we -PRON- PRP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 130 21 introduced introduce VBD cord-299810-e57pwgnx 130 22 a a DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 130 23 sort sort NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 130 24 of of IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 130 25 regressive regressive JJ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 130 26 function function NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 130 27 f f NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 130 28 ( ( -LRB- cord-299810-e57pwgnx 130 29 t t NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 130 30 ) ) -RRB- cord-299810-e57pwgnx 130 31 to to IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 130 32 modelling model VBG cord-299810-e57pwgnx 130 33 better well RBR cord-299810-e57pwgnx 130 34 this this DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 130 35 delay delay NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 130 36 . . . cord-299810-e57pwgnx 131 1 So so RB cord-299810-e57pwgnx 131 2 we -PRON- PRP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 131 3 described describe VBD cord-299810-e57pwgnx 131 4 two two CD cord-299810-e57pwgnx 131 5 scenarios scenario NNS cord-299810-e57pwgnx 131 6 of of IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 131 7 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 131 8 end end NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 131 9 of of IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 131 10 epidemic epidemic NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 131 11 : : : cord-299810-e57pwgnx 132 1 • • NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 132 2 I(end I(end NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 132 3 ) ) -RRB- cord-299810-e57pwgnx 133 1 = = LS cord-299810-e57pwgnx 133 2 247471 247471 CD cord-299810-e57pwgnx 133 3 , , , cord-299810-e57pwgnx 133 4 D(end D(end NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 133 5 ) ) -RRB- cord-299810-e57pwgnx 133 6 = = NFP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 134 1 35235 35235 CD cord-299810-e57pwgnx 134 2 , , , cord-299810-e57pwgnx 134 3 close close JJ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 134 4 to to IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 134 5 July July NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 134 6 10 10 CD cord-299810-e57pwgnx 134 7 , , , cord-299810-e57pwgnx 134 8 for for IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 134 9 f f NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 134 10 ( ( -LRB- cord-299810-e57pwgnx 134 11 t t NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 134 12 ) ) -RRB- cord-299810-e57pwgnx 134 13 linearly linearly RB cord-299810-e57pwgnx 134 14 approximated approximate VBN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 134 15 , , , cord-299810-e57pwgnx 134 16 • • NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 134 17 I(end I(end NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 134 18 ) ) -RRB- cord-299810-e57pwgnx 134 19 = = NFP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 135 1 243766 243766 CD cord-299810-e57pwgnx 135 2 , , , cord-299810-e57pwgnx 136 1 D(end D(end NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 136 2 ) ) -RRB- cord-299810-e57pwgnx 136 3 = = SYM cord-299810-e57pwgnx 136 4 34682 34682 CD cord-299810-e57pwgnx 136 5 , , , cord-299810-e57pwgnx 136 6 close close JJ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 136 7 to to IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 136 8 June June NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 136 9 20 20 CD cord-299810-e57pwgnx 136 10 , , , cord-299810-e57pwgnx 136 11 for for IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 136 12 f f LS cord-299810-e57pwgnx 136 13 ( ( -LRB- cord-299810-e57pwgnx 136 14 t t NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 136 15 ) ) -RRB- cord-299810-e57pwgnx 136 16 in in IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 136 17 a a DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 136 18 quadratic quadratic JJ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 136 19 approximation approximation NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 136 20 . . . cord-299810-e57pwgnx 137 1 Obviously obviously RB cord-299810-e57pwgnx 137 2 a a DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 137 3 linear linear JJ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 137 4 approximation approximation NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 137 5 for for IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 137 6 f(t f(t NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 137 7 ) ) -RRB- cord-299810-e57pwgnx 137 8 leads lead VBZ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 137 9 to to IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 137 10 a a DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 137 11 slower slow JJR cord-299810-e57pwgnx 137 12 recovery recovery NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 137 13 curve curve NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 137 14 and and CC cord-299810-e57pwgnx 137 15 therefore therefore RB cord-299810-e57pwgnx 137 16 a a DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 137 17 small small JJ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 137 18 increase increase NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 137 19 of of IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 137 20 infected infect VBN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 137 21 . . . cord-299810-e57pwgnx 138 1 In in IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 138 2 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 138 3 second second JJ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 138 4 part part NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 138 5 of of IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 138 6 this this DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 138 7 manuscript manuscript NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 138 8 we -PRON- PRP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 138 9 described describe VBD cord-299810-e57pwgnx 138 10 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 138 11 time time NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 138 12 evolution evolution NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 138 13 of of IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 138 14 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 138 15 normalized normalized JJ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 138 16 data datum NNS cord-299810-e57pwgnx 138 17 that that WDT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 138 18 represents represent VBZ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 138 19 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 138 20 number number NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 138 21 of of IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 138 22 infected infected JJ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 138 23 normalized normalize VBN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 138 24 with with IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 138 25 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 138 26 number number NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 138 27 of of IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 138 28 swabs swab NNS cord-299810-e57pwgnx 138 29 S(t S(t NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 138 30 i i CD cord-299810-e57pwgnx 138 31 ) ) -RRB- cord-299810-e57pwgnx 138 32 . . . cord-299810-e57pwgnx 139 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 139 2 have have VBP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 139 3 studied study VBN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 139 4 this this DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 139 5 parameter parameter NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 139 6 on on IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 139 7 four four CD cord-299810-e57pwgnx 139 8 different different JJ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 139 9 scenarios scenario NNS cord-299810-e57pwgnx 139 10 : : : cord-299810-e57pwgnx 140 1 • • NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 140 2 Italy Italy NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 140 3 , , , cord-299810-e57pwgnx 141 1 • • NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 141 2 data datum NNS cord-299810-e57pwgnx 141 3 of of IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 141 4 Italy Italy NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 141 5 minus minus CC cord-299810-e57pwgnx 141 6 data datum NNS cord-299810-e57pwgnx 141 7 of of IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 141 8 Lombardia Lombardia NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 141 9 ( ( -LRB- cord-299810-e57pwgnx 141 10 about about RB cord-299810-e57pwgnx 141 11 37 37 CD cord-299810-e57pwgnx 141 12 % % NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 141 13 of of IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 141 14 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 141 15 Italian italian JJ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 141 16 infected infect VBN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 141 17 belong belong VBP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 141 18 to to IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 141 19 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 141 20 Lombardia Lombardia NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 141 21 region region NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 141 22 ) ) -RRB- cord-299810-e57pwgnx 141 23 , , . cord-299810-e57pwgnx 142 1 • • NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 142 2 USA USA NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 142 3 , , , cord-299810-e57pwgnx 142 4 • • NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 142 5 Germany Germany NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 142 6 . . . cord-299810-e57pwgnx 143 1 So so RB cord-299810-e57pwgnx 143 2 we -PRON- PRP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 143 3 have have VBP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 143 4 found find VBN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 143 5 that that IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 143 6 all all PDT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 143 7 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 143 8 evolutions evolution NNS cord-299810-e57pwgnx 143 9 are be VBP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 143 10 governed govern VBN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 143 11 by by IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 143 12 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 143 13 same same JJ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 143 14 generalized generalized JJ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 143 15 logistic logistic JJ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 143 16 equation equation NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 143 17 [ [ -LRB- cord-299810-e57pwgnx 143 18 1 1 CD cord-299810-e57pwgnx 143 19 ] ] -RRB- cord-299810-e57pwgnx 143 20 , , , cord-299810-e57pwgnx 143 21 suggesting suggest VBG cord-299810-e57pwgnx 143 22 an an DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 143 23 universal universal JJ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 143 24 feature feature NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 143 25 of of IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 143 26 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 143 27 propagation propagation NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 143 28 of of IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 143 29 Sars Sars NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 143 30 - - HYPH cord-299810-e57pwgnx 143 31 Cov-2 Cov-2 NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 143 32 virus virus NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 143 33 . . . cord-299810-e57pwgnx 144 1 In in IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 144 2 particular particular JJ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 144 3 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 144 4 value value NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 144 5 of of IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 144 6 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 144 7 parameter parameter NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 144 8 r r NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 144 9 0 0 CD cord-299810-e57pwgnx 144 10 is be VBZ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 144 11 in in IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 144 12 descending descend VBG cord-299810-e57pwgnx 144 13 order order NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 144 14 compatible compatible JJ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 144 15 with with IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 144 16 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 144 17 respective respective JJ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 144 18 Apparent Apparent NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 144 19 CFR CFR NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 144 20 ( ( -LRB- cord-299810-e57pwgnx 144 21 ACFR ACFR NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 144 22 ) ) -RRB- cord-299810-e57pwgnx 145 1 • • NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 145 2 for for IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 146 1 Italy Italy NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 146 2 r r NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 146 3 0 0 CD cord-299810-e57pwgnx 146 4 = = SYM cord-299810-e57pwgnx 146 5 0.175 0.175 CD cord-299810-e57pwgnx 146 6 and and CC cord-299810-e57pwgnx 146 7 ACF ACF NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 146 8 R R NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 146 9 = = SYM cord-299810-e57pwgnx 146 10 14 14 CD cord-299810-e57pwgnx 146 11 % % NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 146 12 , , , cord-299810-e57pwgnx 146 13 • • NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 146 14 for for IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 146 15 Italy Italy NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 146 16 - - HYPH cord-299810-e57pwgnx 146 17 Lombardia Lombardia NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 146 18 r r NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 146 19 0 0 CD cord-299810-e57pwgnx 146 20 = = SYM cord-299810-e57pwgnx 146 21 0.143 0.143 CD cord-299810-e57pwgnx 146 22 and and CC cord-299810-e57pwgnx 147 1 ACF ACF NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 147 2 R R NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 147 3 = = SYM cord-299810-e57pwgnx 147 4 11 11 CD cord-299810-e57pwgnx 147 5 % % NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 147 6 , , , cord-299810-e57pwgnx 147 7 • • NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 147 8 for for IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 147 9 USA USA NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 147 10 r r NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 147 11 0 0 CD cord-299810-e57pwgnx 147 12 = = SYM cord-299810-e57pwgnx 147 13 0.082 0.082 CD cord-299810-e57pwgnx 147 14 and and CC cord-299810-e57pwgnx 147 15 ACF ACF NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 147 16 R R NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 147 17 = = SYM cord-299810-e57pwgnx 147 18 6 6 CD cord-299810-e57pwgnx 147 19 % % NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 147 20 , , , cord-299810-e57pwgnx 147 21 • • NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 147 22 Germany Germany NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 147 23 r r NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 147 24 0 0 CD cord-299810-e57pwgnx 147 25 = = SYM cord-299810-e57pwgnx 147 26 0.069 0.069 CD cord-299810-e57pwgnx 147 27 and and CC cord-299810-e57pwgnx 147 28 ACF ACF NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 147 29 R R NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 147 30 = = SYM cord-299810-e57pwgnx 147 31 4 4 CD cord-299810-e57pwgnx 147 32 , , , cord-299810-e57pwgnx 147 33 5 5 CD cord-299810-e57pwgnx 147 34 % % NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 147 35 . . . cord-299810-e57pwgnx 148 1 Finally finally RB cord-299810-e57pwgnx 148 2 we -PRON- PRP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 148 3 suggest suggest VBP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 148 4 that that IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 148 5 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 148 6 data datum NNS cord-299810-e57pwgnx 148 7 I -PRON- PRP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 148 8 norm norm VBP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 148 9 ( ( -LRB- cord-299810-e57pwgnx 148 10 t t NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 148 11 i i NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 148 12 ) ) -RRB- cord-299810-e57pwgnx 148 13 is be VBZ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 148 14 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 148 15 most most RBS cord-299810-e57pwgnx 148 16 important important JJ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 148 17 parameter parameter NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 148 18 to to TO cord-299810-e57pwgnx 148 19 control control VB cord-299810-e57pwgnx 148 20 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 148 21 propagation propagation NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 148 22 of of IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 148 23 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 148 24 virus virus NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 148 25 for for IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 148 26 a a DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 148 27 new new JJ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 148 28 inauspicious inauspicious JJ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 148 29 propagation propagation NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 148 30 of of IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 148 31 this this DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 148 32 virus virus NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 148 33 in in IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 148 34 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 148 35 world world NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 148 36 , , , cord-299810-e57pwgnx 148 37 because because IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 148 38 , , , cord-299810-e57pwgnx 148 39 knowing know VBG cord-299810-e57pwgnx 148 40 its -PRON- PRP$ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 148 41 universal universal JJ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 148 42 feature feature NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 148 43 , , , cord-299810-e57pwgnx 148 44 we -PRON- PRP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 148 45 can can MD cord-299810-e57pwgnx 148 46 forward forward RB cord-299810-e57pwgnx 148 47 know know VB cord-299810-e57pwgnx 148 48 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 148 49 number number NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 148 50 of of IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 148 51 infected infect VBN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 148 52 preparing prepare VBG cord-299810-e57pwgnx 148 53 a a DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 148 54 relevant relevant JJ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 148 55 number number NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 148 56 of of IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 148 57 swabs swab NNS cord-299810-e57pwgnx 148 58 . . . cord-299810-e57pwgnx 149 1 Analysis analysis NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 149 2 of of IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 149 3 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 149 4 evolution evolution NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 149 5 of of IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 149 6 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 149 7 Sars Sars NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 149 8 - - HYPH cord-299810-e57pwgnx 149 9 Cov-2 Cov-2 NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 149 10 in in IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 149 11 Italy Italy NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 149 12 , , , cord-299810-e57pwgnx 149 13 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 149 14 role role NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 149 15 of of IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 149 16 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 149 17 asymptomatics asymptomatic NNS cord-299810-e57pwgnx 149 18 and and CC cord-299810-e57pwgnx 149 19 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 149 20 success success NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 149 21 of of IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 149 22 Logistic logistic JJ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 149 23 model model NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 149 24 Early Early NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 149 25 Phylogenetic Phylogenetic NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 149 26 Estimate Estimate NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 149 27 of of IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 149 28 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 149 29 Effective Effective NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 149 30 Reproduction Reproduction NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 149 31 Number Number NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 149 32 Of of IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 149 33 Sars Sars NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 149 34 - - HYPH cord-299810-e57pwgnx 149 35 CoV-2 CoV-2 NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 149 36 Emerging Emerging NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 149 37 coronaviruses coronaviruse NNS cord-299810-e57pwgnx 149 38 : : : cord-299810-e57pwgnx 149 39 Genome genome NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 149 40 structure structure NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 149 41 , , , cord-299810-e57pwgnx 149 42 replication replication NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 149 43 , , , cord-299810-e57pwgnx 149 44 and and CC cord-299810-e57pwgnx 149 45 pathogenesis pathogenesis NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 149 46 Data data NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 149 47 analysis analysis NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 149 48 on on IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 149 49 Coronavirus Coronavirus NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 149 50 spreading spread VBG cord-299810-e57pwgnx 149 51 by by IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 149 52 macroscopic macroscopic JJ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 149 53 growth growth NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 149 54 laws law NNS cord-299810-e57pwgnx 150 1 CoViD19 CoViD19 NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 150 2 : : : cord-299810-e57pwgnx 151 1 An an DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 151 2 Automatic Automatic NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 151 3 , , , cord-299810-e57pwgnx 151 4 Semiparametric Semiparametric NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 151 5 Estimation Estimation NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 151 6 Method Method NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 151 7 for for IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 152 1 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 152 2 Population Population NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 152 3 Infected infect VBN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 152 4 in in IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 152 5 Italy Italy NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 152 6 Analysis Analysis NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 152 7 and and CC cord-299810-e57pwgnx 152 8 forecast forecast NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 152 9 of of IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 152 10 COVID-19 COVID-19 NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 152 11 spreading spreading NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 152 12 in in IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 152 13 China China NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 153 1 A a DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 153 2 Poisson Poisson NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 153 3 Autoregressive Autoregressive NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 153 4 Model Model NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 153 5 to to TO cord-299810-e57pwgnx 153 6 Understand understand VB cord-299810-e57pwgnx 154 1 COVID-19 COVID-19 NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 154 2 Contagion Contagion NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 154 3 Dynamics Dynamics NNPS cord-299810-e57pwgnx 154 4 , , , cord-299810-e57pwgnx 154 5 ssrn ssrn NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 154 6 -abstract -abstract . cord-299810-e57pwgnx 155 1 -id=3551626 -id=3551626 NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 155 2 CDC CDC NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 156 1 COVID-19 COVID-19 NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 156 2 Response Response NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 156 3 Team Team NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 156 4 , , , cord-299810-e57pwgnx 156 5 Severe severe JJ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 156 6 Outcomes outcome NNS cord-299810-e57pwgnx 157 1 Among among IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 157 2 Patients patient NNS cord-299810-e57pwgnx 157 3 with with IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 157 4 Coronavirus Coronavirus NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 157 5 Disease Disease NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 157 6 2019 2019 CD cord-299810-e57pwgnx 158 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-299810-e57pwgnx 158 2 COVID-19 covid-19 VB cord-299810-e57pwgnx 158 3 ) ) -RRB- cord-299810-e57pwgnx 158 4 -United -unite VBN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 158 5 States state NNS cord-299810-e57pwgnx 159 1 How how WRB cord-299810-e57pwgnx 159 2 macroscopic macroscopic JJ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 159 3 laws law NNS cord-299810-e57pwgnx 159 4 describe describe VBP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 159 5 complex complex JJ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 159 6 dynamics dynamic NNS cord-299810-e57pwgnx 159 7 : : : cord-299810-e57pwgnx 160 1 asymptomatic asymptomatic JJ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 160 2 population population NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 160 3 and and CC cord-299810-e57pwgnx 160 4 CoviD-19 covid-19 JJ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 160 5 spreading spreading NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 161 1 Notice Notice NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 161 2 sur sur FW cord-299810-e57pwgnx 161 3 la la FW cord-299810-e57pwgnx 161 4 loi loi FW cord-299810-e57pwgnx 161 5 que que FW cord-299810-e57pwgnx 161 6 la la NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 161 7 population population NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 161 8 poursuit poursuit NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 161 9 dans dans NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 161 10 son son NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 161 11 accroissement accroissement NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 162 1 On on IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 162 2 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 162 3 nature nature NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 162 4 of of IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 162 5 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 162 6 function function NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 162 7 expressive expressive JJ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 162 8 of of IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 162 9 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 162 10 law law NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 162 11 of of IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 162 12 human human JJ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 162 13 mortality mortality NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 162 14 and and CC cord-299810-e57pwgnx 162 15 a a DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 162 16 new new JJ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 162 17 mode mode NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 162 18 of of IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 162 19 determining determine VBG cord-299810-e57pwgnx 162 20 life life NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 162 21 contingencies contingency NNS cord-299810-e57pwgnx 163 1 The the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 163 2 simplex simplex NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 163 3 - - HYPH cord-299810-e57pwgnx 163 4 simulated simulated JJ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 163 5 annealing annealing NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 163 6 approach approach NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 163 7 to to TO cord-299810-e57pwgnx 163 8 continuos continuos VB cord-299810-e57pwgnx 163 9 non non JJ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 163 10 - - JJ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 163 11 linear linear JJ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 163 12 optimization optimization NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 163 13 Libelli Libelli NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 163 14 Parameter parameter NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 163 15 estimation estimation NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 163 16 of of IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 163 17 ecological ecological JJ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 163 18 models model NNS cord-299810-e57pwgnx 163 19 We -PRON- PRP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 163 20 thank thank VBP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 163 21 many many JJ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 163 22 colleagues colleague NNS cord-299810-e57pwgnx 163 23 for for IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 163 24 interesting interesting JJ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 163 25 discussions discussion NNS cord-299810-e57pwgnx 163 26 , , , cord-299810-e57pwgnx 163 27 in in IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 163 28 particular particular JJ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 163 29 Andrea Andrea NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 163 30 Marzolla Marzolla NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 163 31 and and CC cord-299810-e57pwgnx 163 32 Domenico Domenico NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 163 33 Seminara Seminara NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 163 34 . . . cord-299810-e57pwgnx 164 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 164 2 also also RB cord-299810-e57pwgnx 164 3 thank thank VBP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 164 4 Pierluigi Pierluigi NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 164 5 Blanc Blanc NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 164 6 , , , cord-299810-e57pwgnx 164 7 S.O.C. S.O.C. NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 164 8 Infectious Infectious NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 164 9 Diseases Diseases NNPS cord-299810-e57pwgnx 164 10 1 1 CD cord-299810-e57pwgnx 164 11 Santa Santa NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 164 12 Maria Maria NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 164 13 Annunziata Annunziata NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 164 14 Hospital Hospital NNP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 164 15 , , , cord-299810-e57pwgnx 164 16 for for IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 164 17 stimulating stimulate VBG cord-299810-e57pwgnx 164 18 discussions discussion NNS cord-299810-e57pwgnx 164 19 on on IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 164 20 technical technical JJ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 164 21 subjects subject NNS cord-299810-e57pwgnx 164 22 on on IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 164 23 which which WDT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 164 24 we -PRON- PRP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 164 25 had have VBD cord-299810-e57pwgnx 164 26 no no DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 164 27 knowledge knowledge NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 164 28 . . . cord-299810-e57pwgnx 165 1 The the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 165 2 authors author NNS cord-299810-e57pwgnx 165 3 declare declare VBP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 165 4 that that IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 165 5 they -PRON- PRP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 165 6 have have VBP cord-299810-e57pwgnx 165 7 no no DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 165 8 known know VBN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 165 9 competing compete VBG cord-299810-e57pwgnx 165 10 financial financial JJ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 165 11 interests interest NNS cord-299810-e57pwgnx 165 12 or or CC cord-299810-e57pwgnx 165 13 personal personal JJ cord-299810-e57pwgnx 165 14 relationships relationship NNS cord-299810-e57pwgnx 165 15 that that WDT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 165 16 could could MD cord-299810-e57pwgnx 165 17 have have VB cord-299810-e57pwgnx 165 18 appeared appear VBN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 165 19 to to TO cord-299810-e57pwgnx 165 20 influence influence VB cord-299810-e57pwgnx 165 21 the the DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 165 22 work work NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 165 23 reported report VBN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 165 24 in in IN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 165 25 this this DT cord-299810-e57pwgnx 165 26 paper paper NN cord-299810-e57pwgnx 165 27 . . .