id	author	title	date	pages	extension	mime	words	sentences	flesch	summary	cache	txt
cord-347046-u764muk6	Morice, Alyn H.	Correlation and Causality: a Covid Conundrum	2020-08-28		.txt	text/plain	577	44	66	They use the trajectory of deaths from COVID-19 from around the world to estimate the consequences of easing lockdown measures. They assume the current fall in the rate of COVID-19 related mortality is a consequence of lockdown; but is it? The pitfalls of using such tools in COVID-19 research have been highlighted recently [5] The results from the models used to predict the initial onslaught of the virus differed hugely leading to panic buying of ventilators and the creation of overflow (Nightingale in the UK) hospitals which were never used. The belief that we know the contribution that social measure have made to the evolution of the pandemic is wrong and so advising "[our] estimates are incompatible with a return to previous activities post "lockdown." is hubris which may have greater socio-economic and thus clinical consequences than the virus itself. Estimates of the ongoing need for social distancing and control measures post-"lockdown" from trajectories of COVID-19 cases and mortality Wrong but Useful -What Covid-19 Epidemiologic Models Can and Cannot Tell Us	./cache/cord-347046-u764muk6.txt	./txt/cord-347046-u764muk6.txt