id	author	title	date	pages	extension	mime	words	sentences	flesch	summary	cache	txt
cord-344969-q1wqfeh7	Min, Kyung-Duk	Estimating the Effectiveness of Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions on COVID-19 Control in Korea	2020-09-01		.txt	text/plain	4271	227	49	Using the Monte-Carlo-Markov-Chain algorithm with Gibbs' sampling method, we estimated the time-varying effective contact rate to calibrate the model with the reported daily new confirmed cases from February 12th to March 31st (7 weeks). In this study, we evaluated the effectiveness of various NPIs, including social distancing in adults, spring semester postponement, diagnostic testing, and contact tracing, using the developed mathematical model and scenario analysis. In this study, we estimated the expected epidemic size of COVID-19 in Korea, if social distancing among adults in March was more relaxed while maintaining the effective contact rate at a higher level than the status quo (Fig. 3) . The increase level of effective contact rate for the school opening scenario was obtained from increase level of effective contract rate by school opening in March 2019 using a mathematical model for varicella among adolescence; c Scenario 3 employed a lower detection rate (γ) and quarantine probability (ν) to evaluate the effectiveness of extensive diagnostic testing and contact tracing; d Effective contact rate-related parameters for status quo were estimated by calibration with reported data of confirmed COVID-19 cases.	./cache/cord-344969-q1wqfeh7.txt	./txt/cord-344969-q1wqfeh7.txt