id	author	title	date	pages	extension	mime	words	sentences	flesch	summary	cache	txt
cord-256610-0njpw3zz	Ferguson, Neil M	Mathematical prediction in infection	2005-03-01		.txt	text/plain	1606	84	39	The contribution concludes with a brief review of the recent application of mathematical models to emerging human and animal epidemics, notably the spread of HIV in Africa, the variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease epidemic in the UK and its relationship to bovine spongiform encephalitis in cattle, the 2001 foot and mouth epidemic in UK livestock, bioterrorism threats such as smallpox, and the SARS epidemics in 2003. Epidemics can be described and sometimes predicted by mathematical models because they involve relatively simple processes occurring within large populations of individuals. From the definition of R 0 , this occurs when 1/R 0 of an individual's contacts are susceptible at any point in time, and thus R 0 not only determines the epidemic growth rate, but also the proportion of the population that are infected by the disease, and the steady-state incidence of infection.	./cache/cord-256610-0njpw3zz.txt	./txt/cord-256610-0njpw3zz.txt