id	author	title	date	pages	extension	mime	words	sentences	flesch	summary	cache	txt
cord-291184-uza4orb8	Lyra, Wladimir	COVID-19 pandemics modeling with SEIR(+CAQH), social distancing, and age stratification. The effect of vertical confinement and release in Brazil.	2020-04-14		.txt	text/plain	3447	232	66	We find that starting from 60% horizontal confinement, an exit strategy on May 1st of confinement of individuals older than 60 years old and full release of the younger population results in 400 000 hospitalizations, 50 000 ICU cases, and 120 000 deaths in the 50-60 years old age group alone. 29 Here we develop an SIR type compartmental models for COVID-19 including both 30 symptomatic and asymptomatic, quarantined, and hospitalized while taking into 31 consideration differences by age groups. The timescales σ, γ, θ, and ξ, as well as the fractions p and w, are found by Markov 152 chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) fitting, with priors as given in Table 1 Fig. 4a shows the evolution of the compartments of exposed (E), asymptomatic (A), 166 symptomatic (I), and hospitalized (H), in linear scale. Collapse of health care system can be avoided if vertical 213 confinement is instored on people who are 60 or older, but at the expense of a significant 214 number of extra ICU cases for the 50-60 age bin.	./cache/cord-291184-uza4orb8.txt	./txt/cord-291184-uza4orb8.txt