# ent

id: cord-009481-6pm3rpzj
type: ORG
entity:
  Rosenthal 38 Probabilistic Risk Assessment Reliability Engineering Design and Analysis Risk Analysis in Engineering and Economics Risk Modeling Assessment and Management Reactor Safety Study Assessment of Accident Risk


id: cord-009481-6pm3rpzj
type: LAW
entity:
  Severe Accident Vulnerabilities Procedure for Analysis of Common Cause Failures in Probabilistic Safety Analysis A Technique for Human Error Analysis


id: cord-009481-6pm3rpzj
type: ORG
entity:
  Stackelberg Games Addressing Boundedly Rational Human Preference Models Association for the Advancement of Artificial


id: cord-009481-6pm3rpzj
type: ORG
entity:
  the Commission on the Prevention of WMD Proliferation and Terrorism Unfinished Business A Comparative Assessment of Environmental Problems Optimization tradecraft


id: cord-008495-gjn8kh2t
type: PROTEIN
entity:
  aspartyl proteases 36 247 asthma 29 73 32 91 asymmetric synthesis 13 282 atherosclerosis 1 178 2 187 3 172 4 178 5 180 6 150 7 169 8 183 15 162 18 161 21 189 24 147 25 169 28 217 32 101 34 101 36 57 40 71 atherosclerosis HDL


id: cord-008495-gjn8kh2t
type: PROTEIN
entity:
  Bcl2 family 31 249 33 253 behavior serotonin 7 47 benzodiazepine receptors 16 39 155 bioinformatics 36 201 bioisosteric groups 38 333 bioisosterism 21 283 biological factors 10 39 11 42 biological membranes 11 222 biological systems 37 279 biopharmaceutics 1 331 2 340 3 337 4 302 5 313 6 264 7 259 8 332 biosensor 30 275 biosimulation 37 279 biosynthesis antibotics 12 130 biotechnology drug discovery 25 289 biowarfare pathegens 39 20 305 40 403 blood enzymes 1 233


id: cord-008495-gjn8kh2t
type: PROTEIN
entity:
  BZD 28 19 receptors neurotransmitters 3 264 12 249 receptors neuroleptic 12 249 receptors opioid 11 33 12 20 13 41 14 31 15 32 16 41 17 11 138 14 219 18 171 21 201 23 171 181 ribozymes 30 285 RNAi 38 261 SAR quantitative 6 245 8 313 11 301 13 292 17 291


id: cord-008495-gjn8kh2t
type: GGP
entity:
  steroidal 1 224 2 217 3 215 4 207 5 225 6 182 7 208 8 214 9 193 10 172 13 167 16 189 23 181 anti ischemic agents 17 71 antimalarial inhibitors 34


id: cord-008495-gjn8kh2t
type: GGP
entity:
  serotonin 7 47 benzodiazepine receptors 16 39 155 bioinformatics 36 201 bioisosteric groups 38 333 bioisosterism 21 283 biological factors 10 39 11 42 biological membranes 11


id: cord-008495-gjn8kh2t
type: GGP
entity:
  hypnotics 1 30 2 24 3 28 4 28 7 39 8 29 10 30 11 13 12 10 13 21 14 22 15 22 16 31 17 11 18 11 19 11 22 11 ICE gene


id: cord-008495-gjn8kh2t
type: GGP
entity:
  neuropeptide Y receptor modulators 38 61 neuropeptide receptor antagonists 38 11 neuroprotection 29 13 neuroprotective agents 41 39 neurotensin 17 31 neurotransmitters 3


id: cord-008495-gjn8kh2t
type: GGP
entity:
  pharmaceutics 1 331 2 340 3 337 4 302 5 313 6 254 264 7 259 8 332 pharmaceutical innovation 40 431 pharmaceutical productivity 38 383 pharmaceutical proteins


id: cord-008495-gjn8kh2t
type: GGP
entity:
  steroids 2 312 3 307 4 281 5 192 296 6 162 7 182 8 194 11 192 stimulants 1 12 2 11 3 14 4 13 5 13 6 15 7 18 8 11 stroke pharmacological approaches 21 108 stromelysin biochemistry 25 177 structural genomics 40 27 271 30 265 34 297 substance P 17 271 18 31 substituent constants 2


id: cord-008495-gjn8kh2t
type: CHEMICAL
entity:
  steroid hormones 1 213 2 208 3 207 4 199 stroidogenesis adrenal 2 263 steroids 2 312 3 307 4 281 5 192 296 6 162 7 182 8 194 11 192 stimulants 1 12 2 11 3 14 4 13 5 13 6 15 7 18 8 11 stroke


id: cord-004091-gex0zvoa
type: ORG
entity:
  Attitute Change A Revised Theory of Porotection Motivation Social Psychophysiology A Sourcebook Artificial Intelligence


id: cord-027337-eorjnma3
type: WORK_OF_ART
entity:
  Copulas and Its Application in Hydrology and Water Resources On the unstable behaviour of stock exchanges A metamodeling approach based on neural networks Time dependent copulas Analysing financial contagion


id: cord-021887-22lop0pk
type: WORK_OF_ART
entity:
  The Convention on the Prohibition of the Development Production and Stockpiling of Biological and Toxin Weapons


id: cord-022003-cvawdes6
type: PROTEIN
entity:
  macrophage colony stimulating factors stem cell growth factors monoclonal antibodies tumor necrosis factor


id: cord-022003-cvawdes6
type: ORG
entity:
  Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Public Health Guidance for Community Level Preparedness and Response to SARS Version 2 Supplement F Laboratory


id: cord-022003-cvawdes6
type: WORK_OF_ART
entity:
  Combating Terrorism Need for Comprehensive Threat and Risk Assessments of Chemical and Biological Attacks Medical Aspects of Chemical and Biological Warfare


id: cord-022003-cvawdes6
type: ORG
entity:
  The Chemical Weapons Convention Implementation Challenges and Solutions Center for Nonproliferation Studies


id: cord-018947-d4im0p9e
type: WORK_OF_ART
entity:
  The Financial Crisis and the Systemic Failure of Academic Economics Dahlem Report Address of the Governor of the Central Bank of Barbados on The


id: cord-018947-d4im0p9e
type: ORG
entity:
  Collective Dynamics Complex Economic Dynamics Sociodynamics A Systematic Approach to Mathematical Modelling


id: cord-018947-d4im0p9e
type: WORK_OF_ART
entity:
  Management in Freight Logistics Increasing Capacity Service Level and Safety with Optimization Algorithms Handbook of Research on Nature


id: cord-018947-d4im0p9e
type: ORG
entity:
  Introduction to Econophysics Correlations and Complexity in Finance Minority Games Interacting Agents in Financial Markets Economics


id: cord-013470-1obua17m
type: LAW
entity:
  Chapter 33 Virus Detection Using Nanosensors Chapter 3 Sensor Application For Environmental Pollutants Nanoparticle


id: cord-013470-1obua17m
type: WORK_OF_ART
entity:
  In Medical Aspects of Biological Warfare Office of The Surgeon General Borden Institute US Army Medical Department Center and School Health Readiness Center of Excellence


id: cord-013470-1obua17m
type: CHEMICAL
entity:
  DMMP 130 parts per billion in the gas phase Figure 11 Interaction of dimethyl methyl phosphonate DMMP


id: cord-348106-agwdmtug
type: WORK_OF_ART
entity:
  The Geneva Papers on Risk Insurance Theory In Sample and Out of Sample Predictive Model Validation for Quotes in Each Channel


id: cord-255140-3dwqqgv1
type: GGP
entity:
  Refs 7 11 12 19 52 of anthrax the Mayer criteria 55 would have screened only 4 patients cost 1900 USD whereas the Hupert criteria 54


id: cord-255140-3dwqqgv1
type: DISEASE
entity:
  fever chills headache malaise coryza cough chest pain pharyngitis abdominal pain arthralgia septic shock respiratory failure


id: cord-255140-3dwqqgv1
type: DISEASE
entity:
  conjunctivitis blurred vision rhinorrhea epistaxis dyspnea wheezing tachycardia shock vomiting diarrhea erythema


id: cord-123804-cgvikrwm
type: ORG
entity:
  A Microscopic Epidemic Model and Pandemic Prediction Using Multi Agent Reinforcement Learning date 2020 04 27


id: cord-355834-kziy850d
type: CHEBI
entity:
  inorganic metal ions 3 26 27 29 51 63 64 Agglomeration due to high activity of antimicrobial nanoparticles


id: cord-355834-kziy850d
type: CHEBI
entity:
  dodecyl dimethyl benzyl ammonium chloride sodium bromide zinc oxide sodium tungstate copper phthalocyanine


id: cord-355834-kziy850d
type: WORK_OF_ART
entity:
  Antimicrobial Activity of Commercial Concrete Sealant Against Salmonella Spp A Model for Poultry Processing Plants


id: cord-354130-mi7saerx
type: ORG
entity:
  American Conference of Governmental Industrial Hygienists Threshold Limit Values for Chemical Substances


id: cord-332583-5enha3g9
type: CELL_LINE
entity:
  Manhattan Project Metropolis Ulam 1949 Metropolis 1987 Another very important contribution to the budding development of ABMs


id: cord-332583-5enha3g9
type: ORG
entity:
  Virtual Biology Lab an Inquiry Based Learning Environment Transmission of Infectious Diseases Data Models


id: cord-024981-yfuuirnw
type: ORG
entity:
  Emergency Nurses Association Pediatric Committee American College of Emergency Physicians National Association of EMS Physicians Pediatric Equipment Guidelines Committee Emergency Medical Services for Children EMSC Partnership for Children Stakeholder Group Handbook


id: cord-024981-yfuuirnw
type: WORK_OF_ART
entity:
  Quantico VA Critical Incident Response Group CIRG National Center for the Analysis of Violent Crime Perforation of


id: cord-024981-yfuuirnw
type: ORG
entity:
  Preparedness and Response Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority United States Department of Health and Human Services Office of the


id: cord-265017-byyx2y47
type: ORG
entity:
  the American Indian Pandemic Influenza Emergency Planning and Community Preparedness Postal Testing Increasing


id: cord-355024-v5lahyw4
type: WORK_OF_ART
entity:
  Safer Water Better Health Costs Benefits and Sustainability of Interventions to Protect and Promote Health Cofactors


id: cord-355024-v5lahyw4
type: WORK_OF_ART
entity:
  the Global Burden of Disease Study Excreta Disposal for Rural Areas and Small Communities WHO Consolidated Guidelines on the Use of Antiretroviral Drugs for Treating and Preventing HIV Infection Large


id: cord-328181-b2o05j3j
type: WORK_OF_ART
entity:
  The Epidemiology Workbench a Tool for Communities to Strategize in Response to COVID 19 and other Infectious Diseases


id: cord-340827-vx37vlkf
type: GGP
entity:
  P d ¼ 2d À3 e g see Pastor Satorras and Vespignani 2000 2001 In that case there is always a positive steady state infection rate More generally Lopez Pintado 2008 addresses the question of when it is that there will be a positive steady state infection rate To get some intuition for her results let so that the equation y ¼ H y


id: cord-340827-vx37vlkf
type: ORG
entity:
  Social Structure Segregation and Economic Behavior Social and Economic Networks Relating Network Structure to Diffusion Properties


id: cord-340827-vx37vlkf
type: LAW
entity:
  Design Innovation and Fashion Cycles Complementarities Group Formation and Preferences for Similarity Workers and Wages


id: cord-340827-vx37vlkf
type: EVENT
entity:
  The Laws of Imitation Social Interactions Local Spillovers and Unemployment Identifying Formal and Informal Inuence in Technology Adoption with Network Externalities Medical Innovation Revisited Social Contagion


# bib

id: cord-004091-gex0zvoa
author: Abdulkareem, Shaheen A.
date: 2020-01-06
txt: ./txt/cord-004091-gex0zvoa.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-004091-gex0zvoa.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6944362/
doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0226483
summary:
  For this study, we ran eight ABMs to test various combinations of individual and group learning, using different information sources-with or without interactions among agents-as factors in the BNs. We investigate the extent to which the epidemic spreads, depending on these different learning approaches regarding risk perception and coping decisions. The empirically-driven BNs model a two-stage decision process of people facing a disease risk: learning to update risk perceptions (threat appraisal, BN1 in Fig 1) and making decisions about how to adapt their behavior during the epidemic (coping appraisal, BN2 in Fig 1) . To evaluate the impact of individual and social intelligence on agents'' learning processes regarding risk perception and coping appraisal and the resulting patterns of disease spread, we used four output measures: disease diffusion, risk perception, spatial patterns, and model performance. Finally, in M7, where household agents learned risk perception in decentralized groups and learned to cope individually, 2,911 infected cases were recorded (Table 3) .

title:
  Risk perception and behavioral change during epidemics: Comparing models of individual and collective learning

abstract:
  Modern societies are exposed to a myriad of risks ranging from disease to natural hazards and technological disruptions. Exploring how the awareness of risk spreads and how it triggers a diffusion of coping strategies is prominent in the research agenda of various domains. It requires a deep understanding of how individuals perceive risks and communicate about the effectiveness of protective measures, highlighting learning and social interaction as the core mechanisms driving such processes. Methodological approaches that range from purely physics-based diffusion models to data-driven environmental methods rely on agent-based modeling to accommodate context-dependent learning and social interactions in a diffusion process. Mixing agent-based modeling with data-driven machine learning has become popularity. However, little attention has been paid to the role of intelligent learning in risk appraisal and protective decisions, whether used in an individual or a collective process. The differences between collective learning and individual learning have not been sufficiently explored in diffusion modeling in general and in agent-based models of socio-environmental systems in particular. To address this research gap, we explored the implications of intelligent learning on the gradient from individual to collective learning, using an agent-based model enhanced by machine learning. Our simulation experiments showed that individual intelligent judgement about risks and the selection of coping strategies by groups with majority votes were outperformed by leader-based groups and even individuals deciding alone. Social interactions appeared essential for both individual learning and group learning. The choice of how to represent social learning in an agent-based model could be driven by existing cultural and social norms prevalent in a modeled society.


id: cord-004935-z86x3hnu
title: A classification scheme for agent based approaches to dynamic optimization
author: Baykasoglu, Adil
date: 2012-01-03
txt: ./txt/cord-004935-z86x3hnu.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-004935-z86x3hnu.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7087711/
doi: 10.1007/s10462-011-9307-x
summary:
  Several papers in the literature employ agent-based modeling approach for providing reasonable solutions to dynamic optimization problems (DOPs). We present these in a tabular form called "Agent Based Dynamic Optimization Problem Solution Strategy" (ABDOPSS). ABDOPSS distinguishes different classes of agent based algorithms (via communication type, cooperation type, dynamism domain and etc.) by specifying the fundamental ingredients of each of these approaches with respect to problem domain (problems with dynamic objective functions, constraints and etc.). A classification scheme is introduced and presented in a tabular form called agent based dynamic optimization problem solution strategy (ABDOPSS). In this regard, a classification scheme is designed and presented in a tabular form called ABDOPSS (Agent Based Dynamic Optimization Problem Solution Strategy). Dynamic vehicle routing problem (DVRP) with two types of uncertainty, arrival time and service time, was employed in order to compare the performance of agent-based solution and on-line optimization approach.

abstract:
  Several papers in the literature employ agent-based modeling approach for providing reasonable solutions to dynamic optimization problems (DOPs). However, these studies employ a variety of agent-based modeling approaches with different strategies and features for different DOPs. On the other hand, there is an absence in the literature of a formal representation of the existing agent-based solution strategies. This paper proposes a representation scheme indicating how the solution strategies with agent-based approach can be summarized in a concise manner. We present these in a tabular form called “Agent Based Dynamic Optimization Problem Solution Strategy” (ABDOPSS). ABDOPSS distinguishes different classes of agent based algorithms (via communication type, cooperation type, dynamism domain and etc.) by specifying the fundamental ingredients of each of these approaches with respect to problem domain (problems with dynamic objective functions, constraints and etc.). This paper also analyzes 18 generic studies in the literature employing agent-based modeling based on ABDOPSS.


id: cord-005033-voi9gu0l
title: A CA-based epidemic model for HIV/AIDS transmission with heterogeneity
author: Xuan, Huiyu
date: 2008-06-07
txt: ./txt/cord-005033-voi9gu0l.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-005033-voi9gu0l.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7088085/
doi: 10.1007/s10479-008-0369-3
summary:
  In this paper, we develop an extended CA simulation model to study the dynamical behaviors of HIV/AIDS transmission. Additional, we divide the post-infection process of AIDS disease into several sub-stages in order to facilitate the study of the dynamics in different development stages of epidemics. Higher population density, higher mobility, higher number of infection source, and greater neighborhood are more likely to result in high levels of infections and in persistence. Ahmed and Agiza (1998) develop a CA model that takes into consideration the latency and incubation period of epidemics and allow each individual (agent) to have distinctive susceptibility. We also define four types of agents that are characterized by different infectivity (and susceptibility) and various forms of neighborhood to represent four types of people in real life. To capture this, we extend classical CA models by allowing each agent to have its own attributes such as mobility, infectivity, resistibility (susceptibility) 2 and different extent of neighborhood.

abstract:
  The complex dynamics of HIV transmission and subsequent progression to AIDS make the mathematical analysis untraceable and problematic. In this paper, we develop an extended CA simulation model to study the dynamical behaviors of HIV/AIDS transmission. The model incorporates heterogeneity into agents’ behaviors. Agents have various attributes such as infectivity and susceptibility, varying degrees of influence on their neighbors and different mobilities. Additional, we divide the post-infection process of AIDS disease into several sub-stages in order to facilitate the study of the dynamics in different development stages of epidemics. These features make the dynamics more complicated. We find that the epidemic in our model can generally end up in one of the two states: extinction and persistence, which is consistent with other researchers’ work. Higher population density, higher mobility, higher number of infection source, and greater neighborhood are more likely to result in high levels of infections and in persistence. Finally, we show in four-class agent scenario, variation in susceptibility (or infectivity) and various fractions of four classes also complicates the dynamics, and some of the results are contradictory and needed for further research.


id: cord-007367-e31zhty6
title: Network position and health care worker infections
author: Tassier, Troy
date: 2015-09-07
txt: ./txt/cord-007367-e31zhty6.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-007367-e31zhty6.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7111609/
doi: 10.1007/s11403-015-0166-4
summary:
  We estimate, using an agent-based model, the effect of network position of different hospital worker groups on the spread of infectious diseases in a hospital. Following the theoretical discussion, we use our newly collected data on healthcare worker and patient contacts to model the spread of an infectious disease in a hospital setting. The model allows us to identify the healthcare worker groups that would be expected to play the largest role in the spread of infectious diseases, in terms of network position, in this hospital setting. Because of these difficulties we use a simulation approach to help us measure the average and marginal effects of individuals belonging to different worker groups in our hospital contact data. We discuss the data and use agent-based models to identify the healthcare workers whose position in the hospital contact network has the potential to create large numbers of infections in the hospital.

abstract:
  We use a newly collected data set coupled with an agent-based model to study the spread of infectious disease in hospitals. We estimate the average and marginal infections created by various worker groups in a hospital as a function of their network position in order to identify groups most crucial in a hospital-based epidemic. Surprisingly, we find that many groups with primary patient care responsibilities play a small role in spreading an infectious disease within our hospital data set. We also demonstrate that the effect of different network positions can be as important as the effect of different transmission rates for some categories of workers.


id: cord-009481-6pm3rpzj
title: Intelligent Adversary Risk Analysis: A Bioterrorism Risk Management Model
author: Parnell, Gregory S.
date: 2009-12-11
txt: ./txt/cord-009481-6pm3rpzj.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-009481-6pm3rpzj.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7159100/
doi: 10.1111/j.1539-6924.2009.01319.x
summary:
  In the second section, we describe a canonical model for resource allocation decision making for an intelligent adversary problem using an illustrative bioterrorism example with notional data. (16) In our example, we will use four of the recommendations: model the decisions of intelligent adversaries, include risk management, simplify the model by not assigning probabilities to the branches of uncertain events, and do not normalize the risk. (29) In our defenderattacker-defender decision analysis model, we have the two defender decisions (buy vaccine, add a Bio Watch city), the agent acquisition for the attacker is uncertain, the agent selection and target of attack is another decision, the consequences (fatalities and economic) are uncertain, the defender decision after attack to mitigate the maximum possible casualties, and the costs of defender decisions are known. We use multiple objective decision analysis with an additive value (risk) model to assign risk to the defender consequences.

abstract:
  The tragic events of 9/11 and the concerns about the potential for a terrorist or hostile state attack with weapons of mass destruction have led to an increased emphasis on risk analysis for homeland security. Uncertain hazards (natural and engineering) have been successfully analyzed using probabilistic risk analysis (PRA). Unlike uncertain hazards, terrorists and hostile states are intelligent adversaries who can observe our vulnerabilities and dynamically adapt their plans and actions to achieve their objectives. This article compares uncertain hazard risk analysis with intelligent adversary risk analysis, describes the intelligent adversary risk analysis challenges, and presents a probabilistic defender–attacker–defender model to evaluate the baseline risk and the potential risk reduction provided by defender investments. The model includes defender decisions prior to an attack; attacker decisions during the attack; defender actions after an attack; and the uncertainties of attack implementation, detection, and consequences. The risk management model is demonstrated with an illustrative bioterrorism problem with notional data.


id: cord-013470-1obua17m
title: Plasmonic Sensors for Monitoring Biological and Chemical Threat Agents
author: Saylan, Yeşeren
date: 2020-10-15
txt: ./txt/cord-013470-1obua17m.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-013470-1obua17m.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7602421/
doi: 10.3390/bios10100142
summary:
  Plasmonic sensors are used as detection devices that have important properties, such as rapid recognition, real-time analysis, no need labels, sensitive and selective sensing, portability, and, more importantly, simplicity in identifying target analytes. Various recent studies indicate that plasmonic sensors can be a key platform for monitoring biological and chemical threat agents owing to their combination of different charming properties such as sensitivity, rapid, unlabeled, low cost, real time, and portability [28] [29] [30] [31] [32] [33] [34] [35] [36] [37] [38] . Various recent studies indicate that plasmonic sensors can be a key platform for monitoring biological and chemical threat agents owing to their combination of different charming properties such as sensitivity, rapid, unlabeled, low cost, real time, and portability [28] [29] [30] [31] [32] [33] [34] [35] [36] [37] [38] . In this review, the recent developments of plasmonic sensors are overviewed for biological and chemical threat agents'' detection.

abstract:
  Sensors are excellent options owing to their ability to figure out a large number of problems and challenges in several areas, including homeland security, defense, medicine, pharmacology, industry, environment, agriculture, food safety, and so on. Plasmonic sensors are used as detection devices that have important properties, such as rapid recognition, real-time analysis, no need labels, sensitive and selective sensing, portability, and, more importantly, simplicity in identifying target analytes. This review summarizes the state-of-art molecular recognition of biological and chemical threat agents. For this purpose, the principle of the plasmonic sensor is briefly explained and then the use of plasmonic sensors in the monitoring of a broad range of biological and chemical threat agents is extensively discussed with different types of threats according to the latest literature. A conclusion and future perspectives are added at the end of the review.


id: cord-016361-upjhmfca
title: A Multiagent-Based Model for Epidemic Disease Monitoring in DR Congo
author: Tshilenge Mfumu, Jean-Claude
date: 2019-07-16
txt: ./txt/cord-016361-upjhmfca.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-016361-upjhmfca.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7120616/
doi: 10.1007/978-3-030-29196-9_17
summary:
  When a new case of infectious disease is suspicious in Health Center, actors will collaborate to report it to Provincial Health Division through Health Zone Executive Team. This paper focuses precisely on improving the process of reporting health data from the peripheral level to the hierarchy for rapid decision-making and anticipate as much as possible the medical response using multi-agent systems (MAS). Two main ways of research can be studied in this paper: the use of mobile phone as a relevant medium to rapidly transfer medical data and the multi-agent system that is powerful to simulate organizational skills to anticipate diseases spreading. In the process described in Fig. 3 , the agents use some knowledge and tasks to perform a main goal together: collecting data in order to respond with efficiency to epidemic.

abstract:
  Any infectious diseases have been reported in sub-Saharan countries over the past decade due to the inefficiency of health structures to anticipate outbreaks. In a poorly-infrastructure country such as the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), with inadequate health staff and laboratories, it is difficult to respond rapidly to an epidemic, especially in rural areas. As the DRC’s health system has three levels (peripheral, regional and national), from the production of health data at the peripheral level to the national level that makes the decision, meantime the disease can spread to many people. Lack of communication between health centres of the same health zone and Health zones of the same Health Provincial Division does not contribute to the regional response. This article, an extended version of [1], proposes a well elaborated solution track to deal with this problem by using an agent-centric approach to study by simulation how to improve the process. A new experiment is described by arranging twenty-eight health zones of Kinshasa to show how their collaboration can provide unique health data source for all stakeholders and help reducing disease propagation. It concerns also 47 health centres, 1 medical laboratory, 1 Provincial Health Division and 4 Rapid Riposte Teams. The simulation data, provided by Provincial Health Division of Kinshasa, concerned cholera outbreak from January to December 2017. The interaction between these agents demonstrated that Health Zone Agent can automatically alert his neighbours whenever he encountered a confirmed case of an outbreak. This action can reduce disease propagation as population will be provided with prevention measures. These interactions between agents have provided models to propose to the current system in order to find out the best that can help reducing decision time.


id: cord-016819-6r4qf63o
title: A New Method of Differentiation Between a Biological Attack and Other Epidemics
author: Radosavljevic, Vladan
date: 2012-08-31
txt: ./txt/cord-016819-6r4qf63o.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-016819-6r4qf63o.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7121225/
doi: 10.1007/978-94-007-5273-3_3
summary:
  The system was applied to four UEEs: (1) an intentional attack by a deliberate use of a biological agent (Amerithrax), (2) a spontaneous outbreak of a new or re-emerging disease ("swine flu"), (3) a spontaneous outbreak by an accidental release of a pathogen (Sverdlovsk anthrax), and (4) a spontaneous natural outbreak of a known endemic disease that may mimic bioterrorism or biowarfare (Kosovo tularemia). This UEE analysis is a subtle and detailed differentiation through assessment of BA feasibility in comparison with other outbreak scenarios, in particular: (1) a spontaneous outbreak of a new or re-emerging disease (NR) (such as "swine fl u"), (2) a spontaneous outbreak by an accidental release of a pathogen (AR) (such as the Sverdlovsk anthrax outbreak), and (3) a spontaneous natural outbreak of a known endemic disease that may mimic bioterrorism or biowarfare (NE) (such as the Kosovo tularemia outbreak).

abstract:
  The main obstacle in identifying a biological attack (BA), while preventing false alarms, epidemics of panic and unnecessary expenditures is the insufficient data on which to rely. Тhis new method of outbreak analysis is based on our original model of bioterrorism risk assessment. The intention was to develop a model of quick and accurate evaluation of an unusual epidemiologic event (UEE) that would save time, money, human and material resources and reduce confusion and panic. This UEE analysis is a subtle and detailed differentiation through assessment of BA feasibility in comparison with three other types of outbreak scenarios. There are two types of differences between these four scenarios: qualitative and quantitative. Qualitative and quantitative differences are defined with 23 and 10 indicators, respectively. Both types of indicators can have three different values: N/A, 0 or 1. We have carried out a feasibility analysis for subtle and detailed differentiation among four outbreak scenarios. As a tool for feasibility analysis we have introduced a “system of elimination”. System elimination is applied if one component contains all indicators scored with 0 or as N/A – the related scenario is then eliminated from further consideration. The system was applied to four UEEs: (1) an intentional attack by a deliberate use of a biological agent (Amerithrax), (2) a spontaneous outbreak of a new or re-emerging disease (“swine flu”), (3) a spontaneous outbreak by an accidental release of a pathogen (Sverdlovsk anthrax), and (4) a spontaneous natural outbreak of a known endemic disease that may mimic bioterrorism or biowarfare (Kosovo tularemia). It was found that “agent” was the most important and the most informative UEE component of the new scoring system. This system might be helpful in the analysis of unusual epidemic events and a quick differentiation between biological attacks and other epidemics.


id: cord-016912-vnx74hft
title: Strategic Actionable Net-Centric Biological Defense System
author: Kornguth, S.
date: 2005
txt: ./txt/cord-016912-vnx74hft.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-016912-vnx74hft.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7121348/
doi: 10.1007/1-4020-3384-2_1
summary:
  Technologies required for strategic actionable net-centric biological defense systems consist of : 1) multiplexed multi-array sensors for threat agents and for signatures of the host response to infection; 2) novel vaccines and restricted access antivirals/bacterials to reduce emergence of drug resistant strains preand post-event; 3) telemedicine capabilities to deliver post-event care to 20,000 victims of a biological strike; and 4) communication systems with intelligent software for resource allocation and redundant pathways that survive catastrophic attack. The large increase in numbers of sensors (for high explosives [HX], biological and chemical agents, meteorological conditions) together with the rapid changes in op tempo required to manage emergence of clinical disease would suggest a need for the development of systems capable of autonomous generation of an alert when threat conditions arise.

abstract:
  Technologies required for strategic actionable net-centric biological defense systems consist of : 1) multiplexed multi-array sensors for threat agents and for signatures of the host response to infection; 2) novel vaccines and restricted access antivirals/bacterials to reduce emergence of drug resistant strains pre- and post-event; 3) telemedicine capabilities to deliver post-event care to 20,000 victims of a biological strike; and 4) communication systems with intelligent software for resource allocation and redundant pathways that survive catastrophic attack. The integrated system must detect all threat agents with minimal false positive/negative events, a seamless integrated broad-band communications capability that enables conversion of data to actionable information, and novel pre- and post-event treatments. The development of multiplexed multi-array sensors, appropriate vaccines and antibiotics, and integrated communication capabilities are critical to sustaining normal health, commerce, and international activities.


id: cord-017096-pnxjrtgo
title: Application of UPT-POCT in Anti-bioterrorism and Biosecurity
author: Zhang, Pingping
date: 2019-09-20
txt: ./txt/cord-017096-pnxjrtgo.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-017096-pnxjrtgo.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7121573/
doi: 10.1007/978-981-32-9279-6_16
summary:
  Up-converting phosphor technology-based point-of-care testing (UPT-POCT) can detect bioterrorism agents from various samples with high sensitivity and specificity, in particular it shows robust performance for complicated samples, such as food, powder, viscera and grains. Sensitivity and specificity are crucial to the performance evaluation for a detection method, and the evaluations of UPT-POCT for detection of different bioterrorism agents are shown in Table 16 .1. cholerae in 102 field water samples obtained from sample collection sites in Guangzhou city (China), UPT-POCT is more sensitive than the isolation-culture method and colloidal gold immnochromatography assay, and its sensitivity could match that of real-time fluorescent PCR with fewer false positive results (Hao et al. Compared with these methods, the simple sampletreatment process based on its high tolerance, and the simple sample-loading manner of UPT-POCT, reduces the potential for the spread of bioterrorism agents in the detection process. Evaluation of up-converting phosphor technology-based lateral flow strips for rapid detection of Bacillus anthracis Spore, Brucella spp., and Yersinia pestis

abstract:
  With the exception of toxins, bioterrorism agents are mainly microorganisms, many of which cause serious infectious diseases. Up-converting phosphor technology-based point-of-care testing (UPT-POCT) can detect bioterrorism agents from various samples with high sensitivity and specificity, in particular it shows robust performance for complicated samples, such as food, powder, viscera and grains. The tolerance of UPT-POCT to sample is based on the physical and luminescence stability of UCNPs, the stable covalent interaction between UCNPs and antibody, as well as the strong buffering capacity of the detection system. Reliable results can be obtained in a short time period using a portable biosensor by nonprofessionals owing to the simple nature of UPT-POCT operation and sample pre-treatment.


id: cord-018463-a6qu0cuv
title: Synthetic Biology, Dual Use Research, and Possibilities for Control
author: Wimmer, Eckard
date: 2018-03-23
txt: ./txt/cord-018463-a6qu0cuv.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-018463-a6qu0cuv.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7123342/
doi: 10.1007/978-94-024-1263-5_2
summary:
  The anthrax attack coincided with the first report in 2002 of the de novo synthesis in the test tube of a pathogenic human virus, poliovirus, that was equally shocking because it indicated that dangerous infectious agents could be produced in laboratories outside of government control. These events were synchronous with the advent of a new discipline, Synthetic Biology, which was an emerging area of research that can broadly be described "as the design and construction of novel artificial biological pathways, organisms or devices, or the redesign of existing natural biological systems." The synthesis of viruses, or more broadly expressed: each experiment in Synthetic Biology, fits the definition of "Dual Use Research" – the dual use dilemma in which the same technologies can be used for the good of humans and misused for bioterrorism.

abstract:
  The anthrax attack on the human population in the United States in 2001/2002 may be considered the naissance of modern bioterrorism. This attack, e.g. the planned killing by means of deadly microorganisms (Bacillus anthracis) caused enormous public concern, because, numerous other deadly agents, now known as “select agents”, occur in nature and are available for misuse. The anthrax attack coincided with the first report in 2002 of the de novo synthesis in the test tube of a pathogenic human virus, poliovirus, that was equally shocking because it indicated that dangerous infectious agents could be produced in laboratories outside of government control. These events were synchronous with the advent of a new discipline, Synthetic Biology, which was an emerging area of research that can broadly be described “as the design and construction of novel artificial biological pathways, organisms or devices, or the redesign of existing natural biological systems.” The synthesis of viruses, or more broadly expressed: each experiment in Synthetic Biology, fits the definition of “Dual Use Research” – the dual use dilemma in which the same technologies can be used for the good of humans and misused for bioterrorism. In view of these threats the US Government has formulated rules that can lower the chances of misuse of biological research. That includes all research with select agents or the modification of agents to acquire dangerous traits (“Gain of Function”). It also calls for the continuous education of all generations entering research: to be aware that results of research can be dangerous, if not immediately then possibly at later times.


id: cord-018947-d4im0p9e
title: Challenges in Economics
author: Helbing, Dirk
date: 2012-02-10
txt: ./txt/cord-018947-d4im0p9e.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-018947-d4im0p9e.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7123964/
doi: 10.1007/978-3-642-24004-1_16
summary:
  This is also relevant for the following challenges, as boundedly rational agents may react inefficently and with delays, which questions the efficient market hypothesis, the equilibrium paradigm, and other fundamental concepts, calling for the consideration of spatial, network, and time-dependencies, heterogeneity and correlations etc. While it is a well-known problem that people tend to make unfair contributions to public goods or try to get a bigger share of them, individuals cooperate much more than one would expect according to the representative agent approach. In economics, one tries to solve the problem by introducing taxes (i.e. another incentive structure) or a "shadow of the future" (i.e. a strategic optimization over infinite time horizons in accordance with the rational agent approach) [96, 97] . One of the most important drawbacks of the representative agent approach is that it cannot explain the fundamental fact of economic exchange, since it requires one to assume a heterogeneity in resources or production costs, or to consider a variation in the value of goods among individuals.

abstract:
  In the same way as the Hilbert Program was a response to the foundational crisis of mathematics [1], this article tries to formulate a research program for the socio-economic sciences. The aim of this contribution is to stimulate research in order to close serious knowledge gaps in mainstream economics that the recent financial and economic crisis has revealed. By identifying weak points of conventional approaches in economics, we identify the scientific problems which need to be addressed. We expect that solving these questions will bring scientists in a position to give better decision support and policy advice. We also indicate, what kinds of insights can be contributed by scientists from other research fields such as physics, biology, computer and social science. In order to make a quick progress and gain a systemic understanding of the whole interconnected socio-economic-environmental system, using the data, information and computer systems available today and in the near future, we suggest a multi-disciplinary collaboration as most promising research approach.


id: cord-020568-c5425959
title: Detecting and Responding to Bioterrorism
author: Blatny, Janet Martha
date: 2007
txt: ./txt/cord-020568-c5425959.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-020568-c5425959.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7139443/
doi: 10.1007/978-1-4020-5808-0_7
abstract: nan
summary:
  The avian flu outbreak in several Asian countries killing approximately 50 million chickens has revealed the need for establishing rapid molecular diagnostics for mass screening of the Biological threat agents may be difficult to detect and identify quickly and reliable both from a civilian (public health) and a military point of view. Real-time PCR is the most commonly used nucleic acid-based method for specific and sensitive identification of biological threat agents. Internal controls may consist of either a plasmid or a DNA fragment in which the amplified DNA sequence is Several real-time PCR assays have been outlined for a number of biological threat agents, and commercial kits containing the specific reagents are available. An essential part of bioterrorism preparedness and response includes the design of efficient and reliable systems for detection and identification of biological threat agents. Classical microbiology, immunoassays, and nucleic acid-based methods, including molecular forensics, are laboratory approaches for detecting, identifying, and verifying various biological threat agents.


id: cord-020766-0gacqii4
title: Nanotechnology: Towards the detection and treatment of inflammatory diseases
author: Murthy, Sreekant
date: 2006
txt: ./txt/cord-020766-0gacqii4.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-020766-0gacqii4.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7147450/
doi: 10.1007/978-3-7643-7520-1_8
summary:
  In medical fields, it offers a wide range of tools that can be used as drug delivery platforms [3] , better contrast agents in imaging [4] , chip-based bio-laboratories [5] and nanoscale probes [6] that are able to track cell movements and manipulate molecules. Nanotechnology in the medical field offers a wide range of tools that can be used as drug delivery platforms, better contrast agents in imaging, chip-based biolabs and nanoscale probes able to track cell movements and manipulate molecules [10] . Nanoscale cantilevers, constructed as part of a larger diagnostic device, can provide rapid and sensitive detection of inflammation and cancer-related molecules and to evaluate how various drugs bind to their targets at a concentration 20 times lower than clinical threshold. Paramagnetic iron oxide nanoparticles are a new class of contrast agents that are finding increasing applications in the field of diagnostics and molecular imaging based on magnetic resonance (MR) [23] .

abstract:
  Biological systems operate at the nanoscale. Nanomedicine is the application of nanotechnology to monitor and treat biological systems in health and disease. This is accomplished by real time monitoring of molecular signaling at the cellular and tissue level. During the past decade, there has been an explosion in this field, resulting in revolutionary advances in determining the microstructure and function of living systems. These discoveries have led to the development of powerful tools for fundamental biological and medical research. Nanotechnology has been applied to targeted drug delivery to minimize side effects, creating implantable materials as scaffolds for tissue engineering, creating implantable devices, surgical aids and nanorobotics, as well as throughput drug screening and medical diagnostic imaging. The nanoinitiatives are funded by governments and private sources throughout the world to develop or further refine the technology to provide the beyond-imaginable, most sophisticated tools to a physician and scientists to inflammatory diseases. No doubt, there will be many technical, regulatory and legal challenges in the deployment of these technologies. Unquestionably, there is enough desire and commitment to meet these challenges for the good of society and betterment of the quality of life.


id: cord-021887-22lop0pk
title: Biological Attack
author: Artenstein, Andrew W.
date: 2015-10-23
txt: ./txt/cord-021887-22lop0pk.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-021887-22lop0pk.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7152162/
doi: 10.1016/b978-0-323-28665-7.00079-0
abstract: nan
summary:
  This trend culminated with the October 2001 anthrax attacks in the United States, which elevated bioterrorism to the forefront of international dialogue and heightened public concerns regarding systemic health care preparation against the threat of biological attacks. Physicians and other health care workers must therefore maintain a high index of suspicion of bioterrorism, and recognize suggestive epidemiologic clues and clinical features to enhance early recognition and guide initial management of casualties. Multiple features make smallpox an attractive biological weapon and ensure that any reintroduction into human populations would be a global public health catastrophe: it is stable in aerosol form, has a low infective dose, is associated with up to a 30% case-fatality rate, and has a large vulnerable target population because civilian vaccination was terminated in 1972. 42 Although not always clinically apparent, the psychological effect of a bioterrorism event is certainly a significant and important consideration for ongoing public health management strategies following any biological threat or terrorist attack.


id: cord-021917-z9wpjr0d
title: Bioterrorism and the Intensive Care Unit
author: Stephens, R. Scott
date: 2009-05-15
txt: ./txt/cord-021917-z9wpjr0d.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-021917-z9wpjr0d.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7152203/
doi: 10.1016/b978-0-323-02844-8.50069-x
abstract: nan
summary:
  • Health care workers, accustomed to putting the welfare of patients ahead of their own in emergency situations, must be prepared for the proper use of personal protective equipment and trained in specific plans for the response to an infective or bioterrorism event. Although intensivists working in developed countries generally have little experience treating specific illnesses caused by serious bioweapon pathogens, these diseases result in clinical conditions that commonly require treatment in intensive care units (ICUs) (e.g., severe sepsis and septic shock, hypoxemic respiratory failure, and ventilatory failure). An optimal medical response to a bioweapon attack will require all or most of the following: early diagnosis, rapid case finding, large-scale distribution of countermeasures for postexposure prophylaxis or early treatment, immediate isolation of contagious victims, and enhanced capacity for providing medical care to seriously and critically ill victims.


id: cord-022003-cvawdes6
title: Future Biological and Chemical Weapons
author: Darling, Robert G.
date: 2015-10-23
txt: ./txt/cord-022003-cvawdes6.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-022003-cvawdes6.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7152330/
doi: 10.1016/b978-0-323-28665-7.00080-7
abstract: nan
summary:
  New, naturally occurring infections with the potential to cause large-scale human diseases and death continue to emerge at an ever-increasing rate throughout the world, and it is conceivable that these pathogens could also be weaponized by enterprising scientists. Important existing biological agents with the potential for weaponization for military or terrorist use include the following: Another way to view the relative importance of the above list of agents and diseases list is to consider The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) strategy. • Availability • Ease of production and dissemination • Potential for high morbidity and mortality rates and major health impact Agents • Emerging and reemerging infectious diseases such as Nipah virus, hantavirus, human influenza, avian influenza, SARS and SARSassociated coronavirus (SARS-CoV), and Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS)


id: cord-022034-o27mh4wz
title: Distinguishing Tropical Infectious Diseases from Bioterrorism
author: OLANO, JUAN P.
date: 2009-05-15
txt: ./txt/cord-022034-o27mh4wz.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-022034-o27mh4wz.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7152372/
doi: 10.1016/b978-0-443-06668-9.50124-1
abstract: nan
summary:
  They include presence of disease outbreaks of the same illness in noncontiguous areas, disease outbreaks with zoonotic impact, different attack rates in different environments (indoor versus outdoor), presence of large epidemics in small populations, increased number of unexplained deaths, unusually high severity of a disease for a particular pathogen, unusual clinical manifestations owing to route of transmission for a given pathogen, presence of a disease (vector-borne or not) in an area not endemic for that particular disease, multiple epidemics with different diseases in the same population, a case of a disease by an uncommon agent (smallpox, viral hemorrhagic fevers, inhalational anthrax), unusual strains of microorganisms when compared to conventional strains circulating in the same affected areas, and genetically homogenous organisms isolated from different locations.


id: cord-024981-yfuuirnw
title: Types of Disasters
author: Severin, Paul N.
date: 2020-05-14
txt: ./txt/cord-024981-yfuuirnw.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-024981-yfuuirnw.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7235629/
doi: 10.1007/978-3-030-43428-1_5
summary:
  The World Health Organization and the Pan American Health Organization define a disaster as "an event that occurs in most cases suddenly and unexpectedly, causing severe disturbances to people or objects affected by it, resulting in the loss of life and harm to the health of the population, the destruction or loss of community property, and/or severe damage to the environment. After the events of 9/11, much attention has been given to the possibility of another mass casualty act of terrorism, especially with weapons of mass destruction, that include chemical, biological, nuclear, radiological, and explosive devices (CBNRE), or other forms of violence such as active shooter incidents and mass shootings (Jacobson and Severin 2012) . Antidote therapy should be given as usual for nerve agents, including atropine, diazepam, and pralidoxime chloride (United States Department of Health and Human Services, Office of the Assistant Secretary for Preparedness and Response, National Library of Medicine 2019; United States Department of Health and Human Services, Chemical Hazards Emergency Medical Management (CHEMM) 2019).

abstract:
  Disasters are increasing around the world. Children are greatly impacted by both natural disasters (forces of nature) and man-made (intentional, accidental) disasters. Their unique anatomical, physiological, behavioral, developmental, and psychological vulnerabilities must be considered when planning and preparing for disasters. The nurse or health care provider (HCP) must be able to rapidly identify acutely ill children during a disaster. Whether it is during a natural or man-made event, the nurse or HCP must intervene effectively to improve survival and outcomes. It is extremely vital to understand the medical management of these children during disasters, especially the use of appropriate medical countermeasures such as medications, antidotes, supplies, and equipment.


id: cord-027337-eorjnma3
title: Integrating Agent-Based Modelling with Copula Theory: Preliminary Insights and Open Problems
author: Fratrič, Peter
date: 2020-05-22
txt: ./txt/cord-027337-eorjnma3.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-027337-eorjnma3.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7304032/
doi: 10.1007/978-3-030-50420-5_16
summary:
  The motivation for such a framework is illustrated on a artificial market functioning with canonical asset pricing models, showing that dependencies specified by copulas can enrich agent-based models to capture both micro-macro effects (e.g. herding behaviour) and macro-level dependencies (e.g. asset price dependencies). Section 2 provides some background: it elaborates on the combined need of agent-based modeling and of quantitative methods, illustrating the challenges on a running example based on canonical trader models for asset pricing, and gives a short presentation on copula theory. In other words, by this formula, it is possible to calculate the probability of rare events, and therefore estimate systematic risk, based on the dependencies of aggregation variables and on the knowledge of micro-behaviour specified by group density functions of the agent-based models.

abstract:
  The paper sketches and elaborates on a framework integrating agent-based modelling with advanced quantitative probabilistic methods based on copula theory. The motivation for such a framework is illustrated on a artificial market functioning with canonical asset pricing models, showing that dependencies specified by copulas can enrich agent-based models to capture both micro-macro effects (e.g. herding behaviour) and macro-level dependencies (e.g. asset price dependencies). In doing that, the paper highlights the theoretical challenges and extensions that would complete and improve the proposal as a tool for risk analysis.


id: cord-123804-cgvikrwm
title: A Microscopic Epidemic Model and Pandemic Prediction Using Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning
author: Liu, Changliu
date: 2020-04-27
txt: ./txt/cord-123804-cgvikrwm.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-123804-cgvikrwm.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.12959v1.pdf
doi: nan
summary:
  We first formulate a microscopic multi-agent epidemic model where every agent can choose its activity level that affects the spread of the disease. Then by minimizing agents'' cost functions, we solve for the optimal decisions for individual agents in the framework of game theory and multi-agent reinforcement learning. Nash Equilibrium According to (7), the expect cost for an infected agent only depends on its own action. However, as shown in the right plot in Fig. 7(b) , the agents learned to flatten the curve faster than in case 1, mainly because healthy agents are more cautious (converge faster to low activity levels) when they start to consider cumulative costs. Note that when m k is high, the healthy agents still prefer low activity level, though the optimal actions for infected agents are low.

abstract:
  This paper introduces a microscopic approach to model epidemics, which can explicitly consider the consequences of individual's decisions on the spread of the disease. We first formulate a microscopic multi-agent epidemic model where every agent can choose its activity level that affects the spread of the disease. Then by minimizing agents' cost functions, we solve for the optimal decisions for individual agents in the framework of game theory and multi-agent reinforcement learning. Given the optimal decisions of all agents, we can make predictions about the spread of the disease. We show that there are negative externalities in the sense that infected agents do not have enough incentives to protect others, which then necessitates external interventions to regulate agents' behaviors. In the discussion section, future directions are pointed out to make the model more realistic.


id: cord-130778-d6jtz3pm
title: The paradox of productivity during quarantine: an agent-based simulation
author: Hardy, Peter
date: 2020-08-21
txt: ./txt/cord-130778-d6jtz3pm.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-130778-d6jtz3pm.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://arxiv.org/pdf/2008.09461v1.pdf
doi: nan
summary:
  Here we address quantitatively this issue using an agent-based model to simulate a workplace with extrovert and introvert agent stereotypes that differ solely on their propensities to initiate a social interaction. Here we address quantitatively the productivity and social interaction issue using an agent-based model to simulate a workplace scenario where the agents exhibit two social stereotypes, viz., extroverts and introverts, that differ solely on their propensities to initiate a conversation. Social distancing is modeled by controlling the number of attempts an agent makes to find a conversation partner and the motivation to work (mood) is assumed to increase with the time spent talking and decrease with the time spent alone. The time intervals where the mean cumulative productivity decreases correspond to the periods when the agent is participating in a social interaction and are associated with the increase of its motivation.

abstract:
  Economies across the globe were brought to their knees due to lockdowns and social restriction measures to contain the spread of the SARS-CoV-2, despite the quick switch to remote working. This downfall may be partially explained by the"water cooler effect", which holds that higher levels of social interaction lead to higher productivity due to a boost in people's mood. Somewhat paradoxically, however, there are reports of increased productivity in the remote working scenario. Here we address quantitatively this issue using an agent-based model to simulate a workplace with extrovert and introvert agent stereotypes that differ solely on their propensities to initiate a social interaction. We find that the effects of curtailing social interactions depend on the proportion of the stereotypes in the working group: while the social restriction measures always have a negative impact on the productivity of groups composed predominantly of introverts, they may actually improve the productivity of groups composed predominantly of extroverts, which offers then an explanation for the paradox of productivity during quarantine.


id: cord-209269-7ojtwe78
title: Social Distance Characterization by means of Pedestrian Simulation
author: Parisi, Daniel R.
date: 2020-09-08
txt: ./txt/cord-209269-7ojtwe78.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-209269-7ojtwe78.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://arxiv.org/pdf/2009.04019v1.pdf
doi: nan
summary:
  In the present work, we study how the number of simulated clients (occupancy) affects the social distance in an ideal supermarket. In this subsection, we characterize distance between agents during the simulations with the modified contractile particle model (CPM) for different allowed capacities. The different time scales and the number of cases in its both panels confirm that the first hour is dominated by particular long lines waiting for checkout, while in the second hour (Fig. 8 B) the duration of social distance events less than 2 m are dominated by the shorter process, i.e.: the picking time at products. Different operational models, display similar macroscopic observables regarding social distances at values greater than 2 m indicating that the results are robust with respect to microscopic collision avoidance resolution and also suggesting that the simulated paths of the particles are more influenced by the geometry, shopping list, and time-consuming process, than by the particular avoidance mechanism.

abstract:
  In the present work, we study how the number of simulated clients (occupancy) affects the social distance in an ideal supermarket. For this, we account for realistic typical dimensions and process time (picking products and checkout). From the simulated trajectories, we measure events of social distance less than 2 m and its duration. Between other observables, we define a social distance coefficient that informs how many events (of a given duration) suffer each agent in the system. These kinds of outputs could be useful for building procedures and protocols in the context of a pandemic allowing to keep low health risks while setting a maximum operating capacity.


id: cord-214774-yro1iw80
title: Agent-Level Pandemic Simulation (ALPS) for Analyzing Effects of Lockdown Measures
author: Srivastava, Anuj
date: 2020-04-25
txt: ./txt/cord-214774-yro1iw80.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-214774-yro1iw80.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.12250v1.pdf
doi: nan
summary:
  This paper develops an agent-level simulation model, termed ALPS, for simulating the spread of an infectious disease in a confined community. From an epidemiological perspective, as large amount of infection, containment, and recovery data from the this pandemic becomes available over time, the community is currently relying essentially on simulation models to help assess situations and to evaluate options [1] . In this paper we develop a mathematical simulation model, termed ALPS, to replicate the spread of an infectious disease, such as COVID-19, in a confined community and to study the influence of some governmental interventions on final outcomes. [10] construct a detailed agent-based model for spread of infectious diseases, taking into account population demographics and other social conditions, but they do not consider countermeasures such as lockdowns in their simulations. In this section we develop our simulation model for agent-level interactions and spread of the infections across a population in a well-defined geographical domain.

abstract:
  This paper develops an agent-level simulation model, termed ALPS, for simulating the spread of an infectious disease in a confined community. The mechanism of transmission is agent-to-agent contact, using parameters reported for Corona COVID-19 pandemic. The main goal of the ALPS simulation is analyze effects of preventive measures -- imposition and lifting of lockdown norms -- on the rates of infections, fatalities and recoveries. The model assumptions and choices represent a balance between competing demands of being realistic and being efficient for real-time inferences. The model provides quantification of gains in reducing casualties by imposition and maintenance of restrictive measures in place.


id: cord-249836-s303s1tm
title: Biocybersecurity -- A Converging Threat as an Auxiliary to War
author: Potter, Lucas
date: 2020-10-01
txt: ./txt/cord-249836-s303s1tm.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-249836-s303s1tm.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://arxiv.org/pdf/2010.00624v1.pdf
doi: nan
summary:
  In the field of biocybersecurity (BCS), the strengths within biotechnology and cybersecurity merge, along with many of their vulnerabilities, and this could spell increased trouble for biodefense, as novel threats can be synthesized and disseminated in ways that fuse the routes of attacks seen in biosecurity and cybersecurity. Physical examples of this, in order, can be direct exposures to a pathogen like an injection or sneeze (single), poorly developed applications that unnecessarily group people (stagers), and poorly ventilated buildings, and poorly planned infrastructures that amplify or provide the threats (stages). Yet, the idea of using agents such as this for groups not bound by this treaty has never been greater, for the reasons elaborated below, including the lowered cost and increased accessibility to genetic modification, greater accessibility to targeting techniques (see Delivery Systems, below), centralized supply modalities (see in Delivery Systems), and an increasing number mechanisms by which to deliver a hypothetical biological agent (see Threat Vectorization) [9] .

abstract:
  Biodefense is the discipline of ensuring biosecurity with respect to select groups of organisms and limiting their spread. This field has increasingly been challenged by novel threats from nature that have been weaponized such as SARS, Anthrax, and similar pathogens, but has emerged victorious through collaboration of national and world health groups. However, it may come under additional stress in the 21st century as the field intersects with the cyberworld -- a world where governments have already been struggling to keep up with cyber attacks from small to state-level actors as cyberthreats have been relied on to level the playing field in international disputes. Disruptions to military logistics and economies through cyberattacks have been able to be done at a mere fraction of economic and moral costs through conventional military means, making it an increasingly tempting means of disruption. In the field of biocybersecurity (BCS), the strengths within biotechnology and cybersecurity merge, along with many of their vulnerabilities, and this could spell increased trouble for biodefense, as novel threats can be synthesized and disseminated in ways that fuse the routes of attacks seen in biosecurity and cybersecurity. Herein, we offer an exploration of how threats in the domain of biocybersecurity may emerge through less foreseen routes as it might be an attractive auxiliary to conventional war. This is done through an analysis of potential payload and delivery methods to develop notional threat vectorizations. We conclude with several paradigms through which to view BCS-based threats.


id: cord-255140-3dwqqgv1
title: Biowarfare and Bioterrorism
author: Christian, Michael D.
date: 2013-07-04
txt: ./txt/cord-255140-3dwqqgv1.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-255140-3dwqqgv1.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://api.elsevier.com/content/article/pii/S0749070413000389
doi: 10.1016/j.ccc.2013.03.015
summary:
  Although some experts state that the risk of a largescale bioterrorist attack is low, 7 in a more recent analysis, US Senators Graham and Talent quote their conclusion form the Commission on the Prevention of Weapons of Mass Destruction Proliferation and Terrorism in 2010, which stated "unless the world community acts decisively and with great urgency, it is more likely than not that a [biologic] weapon of mass destruction will be used in a terrorist attack somewhere in the world by the end of 2013." 8 Anthrax in particular remains such a concern, because of both the lethality of the agent and also the potential availability given the number of governments that produced weaponized anthrax in the past. The mode of deployment as a biological weapon in the past has often been through infected vectors 22 ; however, a modern bioterrorist would most like deploy the agent via aerosolization and it could present as: primary pneumonic tularemia (inhalation), oculoglandular tularemia (eye contact), ulceroglandular (broken skin contact), or oropharyngeal (mucous membrane contact without deep inhalation).

abstract:
  Bioterrorism is not only a reality of the times in which we live but bioweapons have been used for centuries. Critical care physicians play a major role in the recognition of and response to a bioterrorism attack. Critical care clinicians must be familiar with the diagnosis and management of the most likely bioterrorism agents, and also be adequately prepared to manage a mass casualty situation. This article reviews the epidemiology, diagnosis, and treatment of the most likely agents of biowarfare and bioterrorism.


id: cord-255514-wvjw8h4m
title: Tax evasion, audits with memory, and portfolio choice
author: Ma, Yong
date: 2020-10-19
txt: ./txt/cord-255514-wvjw8h4m.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-255514-wvjw8h4m.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1059056020302380?v=s5
doi: 10.1016/j.iref.2020.10.010
summary:
  Assuming that tax audits and jumps in the risky asset both follow self-exciting Hawkes processes, we provide a semi-analytical solution to this problem for an agent with constant relative risk aversion (CRRA) utility. Considering audit memory, we investigate how an agent makes decisions about consumption, investment, and tax evasion in a financial market allowing for jump contagion. In this section, to demonstrate more clearly the implications of audits with memory for the power-utility agent''s tax evasion, consumption and investment decisions, we consider the Poisson jump-diffusion model (16) for the risky asset price; accordingly our analysis is based on the results in Corollary 3.4. First, compared to the benchmark, the high (low) risk-averse agent tends to conceal more (less) of their risky investment when tax audits have memory property. These results indicate that audit memory reduces evasion more (less) efficiently by reducing the tax and increasing the fine for the high (low) risk-averse agent.

abstract:
  In this study, we consider the memory property of tax audits to investigate the tax evasion problem from the perspective of portfolio choice. We explore the implications of the memory property for tax evasion, consumption, and asset allocation. Assuming that tax audits and jumps in the risky asset both follow self-exciting Hawkes processes, we provide a semi-analytical solution to this problem for an agent with constant relative risk aversion (CRRA) utility. We find that the memory feature does not change the agent's effective holding in the risky asset, and its effects on tax evasion and consumption are determined by the agent's risk aversion. It is suggested that government should treat agents differentially by their risk preferences and set audit-related parameters carefully to avoid unnecessary public expenditure.


id: cord-264350-4zxp3uae
title: Chapter 12. Antiviral Agents
author: Kelley, James L.
date: 1984-12-31
txt: ./txt/cord-264350-4zxp3uae.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-264350-4zxp3uae.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://api.elsevier.com/content/article/pii/S0065774308606880
doi: 10.1016/s0065-7743(08)60688-0
summary:
  The focus of this year''s chapter is on agents with activity A brief update of this year''s advances More comprehensive reviews dealing VIRAL RESPIRATORY DISEASE RNA viruses are the major causative factors of the various forms of acute respiratory disease .8 respiratory tract are probably the most common cause of symptomatic human infections. Ribavirin (l-~-~-ribofuranosyl-1,2,~-triazole-3-carboxamide) -This nucleoside has activity against a broad range of DNA and RNA viruses in An tissue culture and in animal model systems.2 analysis of the status of ribavirin 3) as an is still unresolved but may involve guanosine nucleotides and inhibition of inosine monophosphate dehydrogenase.Z6 In a clinical trial against influenza A, oral ribavirin failed to alter clinical signs and symptoms of the disease.2 However, it OR OR has recently been reported to have a therapeutic effect against both influenza A and influenza B virus infections when administered to patients by inhalation of small-particle aerosol through a face m a s k .

abstract:
  Publisher Summary This chapter discusses the agents with activity primarily against RNA viruses. The communicable diseases of the respiratory tract are probably the most common cause of symptomatic human infections. The viruses that are causative agents for human respiratory disease comprise the five taxonomically distinct families: orthomyxoviridae, paramyxoviridae, picornaviridae, coronaviridae, and adenoviridae. The influenza viruses, which consist of types A, B, and C, belong to the family orthomyxoviridae. Types A and B have been associated with significant increases in mortality during epidemics. The disease may be asymptomatic or cause symptoms ranging from the common cold to fatal pneumonia. Immunization against influenza has been recommended for high-risk groups and antiviral chemotherapy (amantadine) is available for the treatment and prophylaxis of all influenza A infections. There is both a great need for and interest in developing a chemotherapeutic agent for the treatment of these two viral, respiratory tract pathogens. The family picornaviridae contains the genus Rhinovirus that is composed of over a hundred distinct serotypes. Amantadine and rimantadine are specifically active against influenza A virus infections. The amantadine recipients reported a higher incidence of side effects largely attributed to the central nervous system (CNS) symptoms. This difference in side effects may be a pharmacokinetic phenomenon that results in higher plasma concentrations of amantadine. Significant progress continues to be made in the clinical use and development of agents active against DNA viruses. Acyclovir (9-(2-h droxyethoxymethyl)guanine) has been the subject of several reviews and of a syrnposium. Considerable progress has been made in evaluating the clinical promise of acyclovir; however, there remains much to be learned concerning the best use of this drug in clinical practice. Significant strides have been made in the development of clinically useful antiviral agents, especially against the DNA viruses of the herpes family. Most of these agents are directed against viral nucleic acid synthesis and require activation by a virus-induced thymidine kinase. Researchers have begun to focus on other strategies that may produce broader spectrum anti-viral agents with different mechanisms of action.


id: cord-265017-byyx2y47
title: Seeds of Destruction
author: Ryan, Jeffrey R.
date: 2016-03-25
txt: ./txt/cord-265017-byyx2y47.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-265017-byyx2y47.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/B9780128020296000013
doi: 10.1016/b978-0-12-802029-6.00001-3
summary:
  In the United States, bioterrorism became a household word in October 2001, when Bacillus anthracis (the causative agent of anthrax) spores were introduced into the US Postal Service system by several letters dropped into a mailbox in Trenton, New Jersey (see Fig. 1 .1). At the same time as the French were signing the 1925 Geneva Protocol, they were developing a biological warfare program to complement the one they had established for chemical weapons during World War I (Rosebury and Kabat, 1947) . What many people do not know about the group is that it developed and attempted to use biological agents (anthrax, Q fever, Ebola virus, and botulinum toxin) on at least 10 other occasions. To illustrate these points we will briefly discuss four items of international interest that have been emphasized in the media: accidental shipment of live anthrax-positive controls samples, the 2014/2015 Ebola outbreak in West Africa, cases of Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) in South Korea and Saudi Arabia, and a massive outbreak of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI).

abstract:
  This chapter provides the reader with an understanding and appreciation for the scope and importance of biological threats and the opportunity to see where they may be and have become the desire of terrorist groups and the makings of weapons of mass destruction. The history of biological warfare is covered in depth. These major events are important in helping us understand the issues related to using biological substances against an adversary. The difference between biosecurity and biodefense are explained and then related to homeland security and homeland defense, respectively. This chapter also details how expensive these programs are, with nearly $80 billion having been spent on civilian biodefense since fiscal year 2001 in the United States alone. As discussed herein, there is a significant difference in the reality and the potential of bioterrorism. Bioterrorism on a large scale is a low-probability event. Bioterrorism on a small scale is a fairly routine occurrence with little potential. Biological threats remain very much in the news. Recent examples, such as laboratory incidents, the Ebola outbreak of 2014, and other emerging threats, are covered in this chapter.


id: cord-266189-b3b36d72
author: Dignum, Frank
date: 2020-06-15
txt: ./txt/cord-266189-b3b36d72.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-266189-b3b36d72.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11023-020-09527-6
doi: 10.1007/s11023-020-09527-6
summary:
  In this paper, we propose an agent-based social simulation tool, ASSOCC, that supports decision makers understand possible consequences of policy interventions, but exploring the combined social, health and economic consequences of these interventions. Based on data from previous pandemics, initial economic policies were based on the expectation of getting back to normal within a limited amount of time, with many governments soldering the costs for the current period, it is increasingly clear that impact may be way above what governments can cope with, and a new ''normal'' economy will need to be found (Bénassy-Quéré et al. In this section, we describe the epidemics, economics and social science models that are needed to support decision makers on policies concerning the COVID-19 crisis and the complexity of combining these models. We model the direct and indirect effect on the spread of the virus when schools are closed and people work from home.

title:
  Analysing the Combined Health, Social and Economic Impacts of the Corovanvirus Pandemic Using Agent-Based Social Simulation

abstract:
  During the COVID-19 crisis there have been many difficult decisions governments and other decision makers had to make. E.g. do we go for a total lock down or keep schools open? How many people and which people should be tested? Although there are many good models from e.g. epidemiologists on the spread of the virus under certain conditions, these models do not directly translate into the interventions that can be taken by government. Neither can these models contribute to understand the economic and/or social consequences of the interventions. However, effective and sustainable solutions need to take into account this combination of factors. In this paper, we propose an agent-based social simulation tool, ASSOCC, that supports decision makers understand possible consequences of policy interventions, but exploring the combined social, health and economic consequences of these interventions.


id: cord-276616-odmnvv7m
author: Darcel, C.
date: 1995
txt: ./txt/cord-276616-odmnvv7m.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-276616-odmnvv7m.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/7571397/
doi: 10.1007/bf01839302
summary:
  Conclusions drawn from the vaccination trials and transmission experiments were that ~crapie, given by subcutaneous inoculation, had a latent period of 2 years and longer; that the infective agent was resistant to 0.35% formalin; that the disease appeared more quickly and in a higher percentage of recipients following intracerebral than following~subcutaneous injection; and that the causative agent was probably a filtrable virus. There are many difficulties in studying either the natural or experimentally induced diseases: the animals involved, the incubation period required for the emergence of the disease, the innate resistance of a proportion of the population seen as an expression of genetic influences, the differing behaviour of strains of agents isolated from a given species, the symptomatology, the pathology, the uncertain nature of the agent and its means of transmission, the perceived ''lack'' of an immunological response or changes in the immune system, and the biological hazards involved in conducting experiments.

title:
  Reflections on scrapie and related disorders, with consideration of the possibility of a viral aetiology

abstract:
  The transmissible spongiform encephalopathies of domesticated animals, scrapie in-sheep and bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE), and transmissible mink encephalopathy are more than a scientific curiosity; under certain circumstances their impact on commercial activities can be calamitous. Knowledge of their causation and pathogenesis is still rudimentary, but many consider than an unconventional agent, the prion (a brain protein, PrP), that is not associated with nucleic acid is involved in both. Others believe that conventional viruses, which replicate by virtue of their nucleic acid-defined genes, are involved in the causation and progression of the encephalopathies but that technical problems have prevented their identification. Others postulate even more exotic causative agents. While this paper will particularly address the possibility of a viral aetiology for these diseases, it is also emphasized that our knowledge of the state of the immune system in animals with encephalopathy needs broadening. There are remarkable gaps in our knowledge of the histopathology of these diseases, particularly the nature of the characteristic vacuoles. Much further work is needed on the biochemical changes in the brain and the serum, particularly of the latter as it could lead to an additional means of recognizing clinical cases without waiting for the animal to die with subsequent examination of the brain for characteristic lesions and the presence of protease-K-resistant PrP.


id: cord-285617-nyocnvvj
author: Stramer, S L
date: 2014-07-28
txt: ./txt/cord-285617-nyocnvvj.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-285617-nyocnvvj.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25210533/
doi: 10.1111/voxs.12070
summary:
  Also, 14 existing Fact Sheets were updated: (1) human prions other than vCJD, (2) the chronic wasting disease prion, (3) the vCJD prion, (4) bartonella, (5) Coxiella burnetii the agent of Q fever, which resulted in a massive outbreak in the Netherlands from 2007 to 2010 precipitated by high-intensity goat farming, (6) HEV due to increasing reports of RNA-positive blood donors in Japan and Europe; of note, in the Netherlands, increasing numbers precipitated by high-intensity pig farming, (7) Japanese encephalitis (JE) complex, (8) tick-borne encephalitis viruses (TBEV), (9) dengue viruses with three transfusion-transmission clusters, one each reported in Hong Kong, Singapore and Puerto Rico, (10) human parvovirus B19, (11) hepatitis A virus (HAV) due to a large multi-state outbreak in the US, (12) Anaplasma phagocytophilum with eight transfusion transmissions reported in the US, (13) Erhlichia including the first report of transfusion transmission in the US, (14) B.

title:
  Current perspectives in transfusion-transmitted infectious diseases: emerging and re-emerging infections

abstract:
  BACKGROUND: In August 2009, a group from the AABB (Stramer et al., Transfusion 2009;99:1S–29S, Emerging Infectious Disease Agents and their Potential Threat to Transfusion Safety; http://www.aabb.org/resources/bct/eid/Pages/default.aspx) published a Supplement to Transfusion that reviewed emerging infectious disease (EID) agents that pose a real or theoretical threat to transfusion safety, but for which an existing effective intervention is lacking. The necessary attributes for transfusion transmission were outlined including: presence of the agent in blood during the donor's asymptomatic phase, the agent's survival/persistence in blood during processing/storage, and lastly that the agent must be recognized as responsible for a clinically apparent outcome in at least a proportion of recipients who become infected. Without these attributes, agents are not considered as a transfusion-transmission threat and were excluded. Sixty-eight such agents were identified with enough evidence/likelihood of transfusion transmission (e.g., blood phase) and potential for clinical disease to warrant further consideration. In the Supplement, Fact Sheets (FS) were published providing information on: agent classification; disease agent's importance; clinical syndromes/diseases caused; transmission modes (including vectors/reservoirs); likelihood of transfusion transmission, and if proven to be transfusion-transmitted, information on known cases; the feasibility/predicted success of interventions for donor screening (questioning) and tests available for diagnostics/ adapted for donor screening; and finally, the efficacy, if known, of inactivation methods for plasma-derived products. The Supplement included a separate section on pathogen reduction using published data. Agents were prioritized relative to their scientific/epidemiologic threat and their perceived threat to the community including concerns expressed by the regulators of blood. Agents given the highest priority due to a known transfusion-transmission threat and severe/fatal disease in recipients were the vCJD prion, dengue viruses and the obligate red-cell parasite that causes babesiosis (B. microti and related Babesia). Although the focus of the Supplement was towards the United States and Canada, many of the agents (and the process) are applicable worldwide. NEXT STEPS: Since the publication of the Supplement, six new FSs (yellow fever viruses-including vaccine breakthrough infections, miscellaneous arboviruses, XMRV, human parvoviruses/bocaviruses other than B19, and most recently the Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus, MERS-CoV) were added and 14 existing FSs updated (Anaplasma, Babesia, Bartonella, Erhlichia, chronic wasting disease-CWD, human prions other than vCJD, vCJD, Coxiella burnetii-the agent of Q fever, dengue viruses, HAV, HEV, Japanese encephalitis-JE complex, tick-borne encephalitis viruses-TBEV, and human parvovirus B19). Also, tables were released outlining pathogen reduction clinical trials/results (published) and availability/commercial routine use of such technologies by country. Of necessity, the list of EID agents is not, and can never be, complete due to the nature of emergence. We recognized that a system of assessing the risk/threat of EIDs for their potential impact on blood safety and availability must include processes for monitoring, identifying, evaluating, estimating severity, assessing risk and developing interventions. Thus, a ‘toolkit’ containing the necessary ‘tools’ from EID monitoring (horizon scanning) to validation/effectiveness evaluations of interventions is being developed. The goal is, to develop a systematic approach to risk assessment and intervention development for the impact of emerging infectious upon blood safety intended to educate and provide advise about risks/interventions in a timely/accurate fashion. CONCLUSIONS: The process and final product (toolkit) including methods to monitor EID agent emergence, identification/recognition of a transfusion-transmission threat, methods for quantitative risk assessments, and the appropriate management of such threats should be considered for implementation by all blood systems.


id: cord-288348-b10e023s
title: Epidemic viral gastroenteritis
author: Estes, Mary Kolb
date: 1979-06-30
txt: ./txt/cord-288348-b10e023s.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-288348-b10e023s.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://api.elsevier.com/content/article/pii/0002934379904571
doi: 10.1016/0002-9343(79)90457-1
summary:
  Of the many viruses identified in stools, only two groups have met the criteria as definite etiologic agents of epidemic gastroenteritis in human subjects: rotaviruses and the small 27 nm agents [Norwalk-like agents) ( of investigations which began with an epidemic of gastroenteritis occurring in the newborn in the Baltimore-Washington area in the fall of 1941. Rotaviruses have been established as enteritis viruses by isolation and purification from stools of subjects suffering from gastroenteritis, and by induction of disease and seroconversion in both animals and volunteer subjects with purified preparations, Epidemiologic studies on the prevalence of rotavirus infections have shown these ubiquitous agents to be a major cause of gastroenteritis in children. Local immune factors, such as secretory immunoglobulin A or interferon, may therefore be important in protection against rotavirus infection, Alternatively, reinfection in the presence of circulating antibody could reflect the presence of multiple serotypes of virus [37] ; at least four agents in human subjects have been characterized to date [38-411.

abstract:
  Abstract Epidemic viral gastroenteritis is a significant world wide problem. In developed countries, gastroenteritis accounts for significant morbidity and loss of time from work; in the Third World it is the leading cause of mortality among infants and children. Recent technologic advances have been associated with an explosion of research activity. Two virus groups, the Norwalk-like agents and the rotaviruses, are currently accepted as causative agents of viral gastroenteritis in man. The problem of viral gastroenteritis is reviewed both from a current and a historic perspective.


id: cord-293148-t2dk2syq
author: Nadini, Matthieu
date: 2020-09-22
txt: ./txt/cord-293148-t2dk2syq.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-293148-t2dk2syq.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32984500/
doi: 10.1007/s41109-020-00299-7
summary:
  In the more realistic scenario of a core-periphery structure with multiple locations, we unexpectedly find that the time spent by agents in their base location does not influence the endemic prevalence in the SIS model and the epidemic size in the SIR model, which are measures of the overall fraction of population that is affected by the disease. Here, we propose a one-dimensional model that provides some analytical intuitions on the influence that the randomness α, the probability of jumping outside the base location p, and the presence of a core-periphery structure have in the evolution of SIS and SIR epidemic processes. We consider the two-dimensional agent-based model and numerically study the influence of the randomness α, the probability of jumping outside the base location p, and the presence of a core-periphery structure on the evolution of SIS and SIR epidemic processes.

title:
  A multi-agent model to study epidemic spreading and vaccination strategies in an urban-like environment

abstract:
  Worldwide urbanization calls for a deeper understanding of epidemic spreading within urban environments. Here, we tackle this problem through an agent-based model, in which agents move in a two-dimensional physical space and interact according to proximity criteria. The planar space comprises several locations, which represent bounded regions of the urban space. Based on empirical evidence, we consider locations of different density and place them in a core-periphery structure, with higher density in the central areas and lower density in the peripheral ones. Each agent is assigned to a base location, which represents where their home is. Through analytical tools and numerical techniques, we study the formation mechanism of the network of contacts, which is characterized by the emergence of heterogeneous interaction patterns. We put forward an extensive simulation campaign to analyze the onset and evolution of contagious diseases spreading in the urban environment. Interestingly, we find that, in the presence of a core-periphery structure, the diffusion of the disease is not affected by the time agents spend inside their base location before leaving it, but it is influenced by their motion outside their base location: a strong tendency to return to the base location favors the spreading of the disease. A simplified one-dimensional version of the model is examined to gain analytical insight into the spreading process and support our numerical findings. Finally, we investigate the effectiveness of vaccination campaigns, supporting the intuition that vaccination in central and dense areas should be prioritized.


id: cord-297287-0i4nc353
author: Braun, Benjamin
date: 2020-09-10
txt: ./txt/cord-297287-0i4nc353.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-297287-0i4nc353.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32911518/
doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0238412
summary:
  Using agent-based simulations on small world networks, we observe phase transitions for epidemic spread related to: 1) Global social distancing with a fixed probability of adherence. Phase transitions and control measures for network epidemics self-isolate in response to one infected social contact) all the way up to 97% with low levels of any type of social distancing. Because our goal is to understand the behavior of phase transitions regarding total number of infections in our model, we conducted secondary simulations on a refined parameter space based on the results of our regression tree analysis. There is also a clear interaction between the social distance probability and viral shedding parameters and the resulting number of infected agents and the length of the epidemic. Social distancing controls in this model exhibit a phase transition regarding total number of infections, either when imposed globally or when based on individual response to infected contacts.

title:
  Simulating phase transitions and control measures for network epidemics caused by infections with presymptomatic, asymptomatic, and symptomatic stages

abstract:
  We investigate phase transitions associated with three control methods for epidemics on small world networks. Motivated by the behavior of SARS-CoV-2, we construct a theoretical SIR model of a virus that exhibits presymptomatic, asymptomatic, and symptomatic stages in two possible pathways. Using agent-based simulations on small world networks, we observe phase transitions for epidemic spread related to: 1) Global social distancing with a fixed probability of adherence. 2) Individually initiated social isolation when a threshold number of contacts are infected. 3) Viral shedding rate. The primary driver of total number of infections is the viral shedding rate, with probability of social distancing being the next critical factor. Individually initiated social isolation was effective when initiated in response to a single infected contact. For each of these control measures, the total number of infections exhibits a sharp phase transition as the strength of the measure is varied.


id: cord-300731-i2ow33bk
title: A Review of Multi-Threat Medical Countermeasures against Chemical Warfare and Terrorism
author: Cowan, Fred M.
date: 2004-11-17
txt: ./txt/cord-300731-i2ow33bk.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-300731-i2ow33bk.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/15605928/
doi: 10.7205/milmed.169.11.850
summary:
  Although sites and mechanisms of action and the pathologies caused by different chemical insults vary, common biochemical signaling pathways, molecular mediators, and cellular processes provide targets for MTMC drugs. The biochemical pathways associated with chemical toxicity can involve proteases, inflammatory cytokines such as tumor necrosis factor (TNF), interleukin (IL)-1, IL-8, and other molecules such as platelet activating factor (PAF), N-methyl-D-aspartate (NMDA) glutamate receptors, acetylcholine (ACh), substance P, and poly(ADP-ribose) polymerase (PARP) (for review, see Ref. 14). These mediators and receptors can influence inflammatory responses associated with cellular processes such as degranulation, apoptosis, and necrosis that contribute to pathologies caused by chemical agents. Therefore, many classes of compounds used as countermeasures to chemical warfare agents such as PARP inhibitors, proteases inhibitors, adenosine agonists, and NMDA receptor antagonist, although not chiefly thought of as anti-inflammatory drugs, have anti-inflammatory pharmacology (Table I ) (for review, see Ref. 14) .

abstract:
  The Multi-Threat Medical Countermeasure (MTMC) hypothesis has been proposed with the aim of developing a single countermeasure drug with efficacy against different pathologies caused by multiple classes of chemical warfare agents. Although sites and mechanisms of action and the pathologies caused by different chemical insults vary, common biochemical signaling pathways, molecular mediators, and cellular processes provide targets for MTMC drugs. This article will review the MTMC hypothesis for blister and nerve agents and will expand the scope of the concept to include other chemicals as well as briefly consider biological agents. The article will also consider how common biochemical signaling pathways, molecular mediators, and cellular processes that contribute to clinical pathologies and syndromes may relate to the toxicity of threat agents. Discovery of MTMC provides the opportunity for the integration of diverse researchers and clinicians, and for the exploitation of cutting-edge technologies and drug discovery. The broad-spectrum nature of MTMC can augment military and civil defense to combat chemical warfare and chemical terrorism.


id: cord-315617-mhm9wh9q
title: Bioterrorism: is it a real threat?
author: Gottschalk, René
date: 2004-09-02
txt: ./txt/cord-315617-mhm9wh9q.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-315617-mhm9wh9q.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/15349775/
doi: 10.1007/s00430-004-0228-z
summary:
  However, it is the developments over the past years that are causing the greatest concern: new threats to the security of nations are emerging in the form of terrorist organizations that seem to increasingly explore novel ways of spreading terror [1] . Terrorists will know that using highly infectious agents such as the smallpox virus for biological attacks might well mean their spread also to their own followers because they do not have smallpox vaccine or other preventative measures available. tuberculosis, Nipah virus) Third highest priority agents include emerging pathogens that could be engineered for mass dissemination in the future because of: -availability -ease of production and dissemination -potential for high morbidity and mortality rates and major health impact in the aftermath of the 2001 anthrax attacks, with numerous letters allegedly containing B.

abstract:
  The Geneva Protocol of 1925 commits the signatory nations to refraining from the use of biological weapons. However, the terrorist assaults of September 2001 and, subsequently, the anthrax-containing letters are cause for great concerns: new threats to the security of nations are expected, as terrorist organizations seem to increasingly explore novel ways of spreading terror. In this context, naturally emerging diseases such as SARS, monkeypox or West Nile fever assume new importance because it is difficult to distinguish between natural epidemics and possible bioweapon assaults. Great efforts on the part of governments and public health authorities are necessary to counteract these threats.


id: cord-318683-1yxurnev
title: Confronting the threat of bioterrorism: realities, challenges, and defensive strategies
author: Green, Manfred S
date: 2018-10-16
txt: ./txt/cord-318683-1yxurnev.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-318683-1yxurnev.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/30340981/
doi: 10.1016/s1473-3099(18)30298-6
summary:
  • Personal protective equipment should be improved to become more user friendly • Improved surge capacity (the ability to rapidly gear up the health system to cope with a sudden, large increase in patients with a serious, contagious disease) is required, particularly in peripheral areas • The capacity of general and reference laboratories should be increased, to keep developing faster, more reliable diagnostic tests • New and improved vaccines (pre-exposure and post-exposure) and treatment regimens should be developed • Clinical and environmental surveillance needs to increase • Syndromic surveillance systems can be maintained to register suspicious or confirmed cases reported by physicians, and the data can be used to improve risk communication programmes and to monitor the progress of an outbreak • An adequate stockpile of vaccines and medications should be maintained, both nationally and internationally • To improve preparedness for natural and bioterrorist outbreaks, international cooperation should include joint exercises involving multiple countries and constant improvement in the exchange of information on potential bioterrorism threats and management

abstract:
  Global terrorism is a rapidly growing threat to world security, and increases the risk of bioterrorism. In this Review, we discuss the potential threat of bioterrorism, agents that could be exploited, and recent developments in technologies and policy for detecting and controlling epidemics that have been initiated intentionally. The local and international response to infectious disease epidemics, such as the severe acute respiratory syndrome and west African Ebola virus epidemic, revealed serious shortcomings which bioterrorists might exploit when intentionally initiating an epidemic. Development of new vaccines and antimicrobial therapies remains a priority, including the need to expedite clinical trials using new methodologies. Better means to protect health-care workers operating in dangerous environments are also needed, particularly in areas with poor infrastructure. New and improved approaches should be developed for surveillance, early detection, response, effective isolation of patients, control of the movement of potentially infected people, and risk communication. Access to dangerous pathogens should be appropriately regulated, without reducing progress in the development of countermeasures. We conclude that preparedness for intentional outbreaks has the important added value of strengthening preparedness for natural epidemics, and vice versa.


id: cord-320172-qw47pf9r
title: VII Digestive System 1
author: Greaves, Peter
date: 2000-12-31
txt: ./txt/cord-320172-qw47pf9r.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-320172-qw47pf9r.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://api.elsevier.com/content/article/pii/B9780444505149500073
doi: 10.1016/b978-044450514-9/50007-3
summary:
  In common with other changes induced in the digestive tract of rats and cynomolgus monkeys by the administration of recombinant human epidermal growth factor, the tongue showed squamous epithelial hyperplasia characterised by a uniform increase in the thickness of the squamous epithelium in both species (Breider et al., 1996; Reindel et al., 1996) . Detailed study of hypertrophy, protein synthesis, and intracellular cAMP activity in the salivary glands of rats treated for 10 days with isoprenaline (isoproterenol), a series of Î²-adrenergic receptor agonists and the phosphodiesterase inhibitors, theophylline and caffeine, showed that similar effects occurred with all agents although differences in the degree of hypertrophy, the nature of pro-tein and glycoprotein synthesis and Golgi membrane enzyme activity were recorded (Wells and Humphreys-Beher, 1985) . Studies in the rat have shown that diffuse atrophy of the gastric glands characterised by a decrease in the number and size of parietal, chief and mucous cells occurs transiently following truncal vagotomy but histological features return to normal by about 1 month after surgery (Nakamura, 1985) .

abstract:
  Publisher Summary This chapter deals with the digestive system. The major and minor salivary glands and their secretions also represent and integral part of the protective mechanism of the oral cavity, and derangement of saliva production may lead to loss of integrity of the oral mucosa. Drug-induced abnormalities of taste sensation are also well-described phenomena occurring in man although human studies are necessary for the detection of these effects. Inflammation of the oral cavity may involve the buccal mucosa, the gingiva (gingivitis), the tongue (glossitis), and the peridontal tissues (peridontitis). Therapeutic agents can induce inflammatory lesions in the tongue. Moreover, a protective layer of mucus, a visco-elastic material containing high molecular weight glycoproteins produced by the major and minor salivary glands, covers the stratified squamous mucosa of the oral cavity. Salivary secretions also possess digestive enzyme activity although in herbivores and carnivores, it is usually low in contrast to high digestive enzyme activity in omnivorous species.


id: cord-324656-6xq5rs0u
title: Propagation of program control: A tool for distributed disease surveillance
author: Bellika, Johan Gustav
date: 2006-04-18
txt: ./txt/cord-324656-6xq5rs0u.txt
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mime: text/plain
url: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/16621681/
doi: 10.1016/j.ijmedinf.2006.02.007
summary:
  PURPOSE: The purpose of the study was (1) to identify the requirements for syndromic, disease surveillance and epidemiology systems arising from events such as the SARS outbreak in March 2003, and the deliberate spread of Bacillus anthracis, or anthrax, in the US in 2001; and (2) to use these specifications as input to the construction of a system intended to meet these requirements. Such systems should avoid transferring patient identifiable data, support two-way communications and be able to define and incorporate new and unknown diseases and syndrome definitions that should be reported by the system. The EHR systems used by GPs in Norway use the International Classification of Primary Care (ICPC), which is more specifically symptom-related than ICD-9 and ICD-10, making it more applicable for syndromic and disease surveillance use. The two-way communication supported by the Snow Agent system''s epidemiology service makes it possible to update the computer systems that feed the disease surveillance system with new kinds of data.

abstract:
  PURPOSE: The purpose of the study was (1) to identify the requirements for syndromic, disease surveillance and epidemiology systems arising from events such as the SARS outbreak in March 2003, and the deliberate spread of Bacillus anthracis, or anthrax, in the US in 2001; and (2) to use these specifications as input to the construction of a system intended to meet these requirements. An important goal was to provide information about the diffusion of a communicable disease without being dependent on centralised storage of information about individual patients or revealing patient-identifiable information. METHODS: The method applied is rooted in the engineering paradigm involving phases of analysis, system specification, design, implementation, and testing. The requirements were established from earlier projects’ conclusions and analysis of disease outbreaks. The requirements were validated by a literature study of syndromic and disease surveillance systems. The system was tested on simulated EHR databases generated from microbiology laboratory data. RESULTS: A requirements list that a syndromic and disease surveillance system should meet, and an open source system, “The Snow Agent system”, has been developed. The Snow Agent system is a distributed system for monitoring the status of a population's health by distributing processes to, and extracting epidemiological data directly from, the electronic health records (EHR) system in a geographic area. CONCLUSIONS: Syndromic and disease surveillance tools should be able to operate at all levels in the health systems and across national borders. Such systems should avoid transferring patient identifiable data, support two-way communications and be able to define and incorporate new and unknown diseases and syndrome definitions that should be reported by the system. The initial tests of the Snow Agent system shows that it will easily scale to national level in Norway.


id: cord-328181-b2o05j3j
author: Nunez-Corrales, S.
date: 2020-07-25
txt: ./txt/cord-328181-b2o05j3j.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-328181-b2o05j3j.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.07.22.20159798
doi: 10.1101/2020.07.22.20159798
summary:
  The Epidemiology Workbench provides access to an agent-based model in which demographic, geographic, and public health information a community together with a social distancing and testing strategy may be input, and a range of possible outcomes computed, to inform local authorities on coping strategies. 3 Building a multi-objective model for COVID-19: the agent-based route Based on the discussion above, our current research efforts have focused on the development of an integrated simulation model capable of a) accurately reflecting known dynamics of the current pandemic and the qualitative results of other models, b) simulating data-driven stochastic heterogeneity across agent populations to more realistically reflect the variability of underlying human populations when the model is applied, c) integrating economic considerations in association with observable features of the pandemic, d) allowing detailed simulation of known public policy measures at different times, intensities and dates, and e) providing a simple interface for non-expert users to configure and interpret.

title:
  The Epidemiology Workbench: a Tool for Communities to Strategize in Response to COVID-19 and other Infectious Diseases

abstract:
  COVID-19 poses a dramatic challenge to health, community life, and the economy of communities across the world. While the properties of the virus are similar from place to place, the impact has been dramatically different from place to place, due to such factors as population density, mobility, age distribution, etc. Thus, optimum testing and social distancing strategies may also be different from place to place. The Epidemiology Workbench provides access to an agent-based model in which demographic, geographic, and public health information a community together with a social distancing and testing strategy may be input, and a range of possible outcomes computed, to inform local authorities on coping strategies. The model is adaptable to other infectious diseases, and to other strains of coronavirus. The tool is illustrated by scenarios for the cities of Urbana and Champaign, Illinois, the home of the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign. Our calculations suggest that massive testing is the most effective strategy to combat the likely increase in local cases due to mass ingress of a student population carrying a higher viral load than that currently present in the community.


id: cord-332583-5enha3g9
title: Agent-Based Modeling and Simulation in Mathematics and Biology Education
author: Bodine, Erin N.
date: 2020-07-28
txt: ./txt/cord-332583-5enha3g9.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-332583-5enha3g9.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11538-020-00778-z
doi: 10.1007/s11538-020-00778-z
summary:
  ABMs are seeing increased incorporation into both the biology and mathematics classrooms as powerful modeling tools to study processes involving substantial amounts of stochasticity, nonlinear interactions, and/or heterogeneous spatial structures. Here we present a brief synopsis of the agent-based modeling approach with an emphasis on its use to simulate biological systems, and provide a discussion of its role and limitations in both the biology and mathematics classrooms. Whether students are working with ABMs in life science or math modeling classes, it is helpful for them to learn how to read and understand flow diagrams as they are often included in research publications that use agent-based modeling. While not every student necessarily needs to take a course exclusively focused on agent-based modeling, every undergraduate biology student should have the opportunity to utilize an ABM to perform experiments and to collect and analyze data.

abstract:
  With advances in computing, agent-based models (ABMs) have become a feasible and appealing tool to study biological systems. ABMs are seeing increased incorporation into both the biology and mathematics classrooms as powerful modeling tools to study processes involving substantial amounts of stochasticity, nonlinear interactions, and/or heterogeneous spatial structures. Here we present a brief synopsis of the agent-based modeling approach with an emphasis on its use to simulate biological systems, and provide a discussion of its role and limitations in both the biology and mathematics classrooms.


id: cord-340131-refvewcm
author: Kache, Tom
date: 2020-06-04
txt: ./txt/cord-340131-refvewcm.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-340131-refvewcm.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://doi.org/10.1111/apha.13520
doi: 10.1111/apha.13520
summary:
  Exponential-like growth can be observed only in the beginning of the spread, where the number of people that do not have the disease is a lot bigger in comparison to the infectious individuals. When the pandemic runs through the population a key figure is the maximum number of active cases. That means that any measure that leads to the reduction of that probability would reduce the maximum number of active cases and hence would help to reduce the risk of pushing the health care system to its limit. The model makes it possible to explore the effects of the different parameters on the behaviour of the spread and key outcomes such as peak number of active cases or total number of affected individuals. The fraction of the population that got infected and the maximum fraction of active cases is displayed in the control panel of pansim to allow users to compare different simulation outcomes.

title:
  How Simulations May Help Us to Understand the Dynamics of COVID‐19 Spread. – Visualizing Non‐Intuitive Behaviors of a Pandemic (pansim.uni‐jena.de)

abstract:
  The new coronavirus SARS‐COV‐2 is currently impacting life around the globe (1). The rapid spread of this viral disease might be highly challenging for health care systems. This was seen in Northern Italy and in New York City for example(2). Governments reacted with different measures such as shutdown of all schools, universities and up to a general curfew. All of those measures have a huge impact on the economy. The United Nations secretary general has stated recently: “The COVID‐19 pandemic is one of the most dangerous challenges this world has faced in our lifetime.


id: cord-340827-vx37vlkf
title: Chapter 14 Diffusion, Strategic Interaction, and Social Structure
author: Jackson, Matthew O.
date: 2011-12-31
txt: ./txt/cord-340827-vx37vlkf.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-340827-vx37vlkf.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://api.elsevier.com/content/article/pii/B9780444531872000140
doi: 10.1016/b978-0-444-53187-2.00014-0
summary:
  Seminal studies by Ryan and Gross (1943) and Griliches (1957) examined the effects of social connections on the adoption of a new behavior, specifically the adoption of hybrid corn in the U.S. Looking at aggregate adoption rates in different states, these authors illustrated that the diffusion of hybrid corn followed an S-shape curve over time: starting out slowly, accelerating, and then ultimately decelerating. The shape of the distribution F determines which equilibria are tipping points: equilibria such that only a slight addition to the fraction of agents choosing the action 1 shifts the population, under the best response dynamics, to the next higher equilibrium level of adoption (we return to a discussion of tipping and stable points when we consider a more general model of strategic interactions on networks below). While the above models provide some ideas about how social structure impacts diffusion, they are limited to settings where, roughly speaking, the probability that a given individual adopts a behavior is simply proportional to the infection rate of neighbors.

abstract:
  Abstract We provide an overview and synthesis of the literature on how social networks influence behaviors, with a focus on diffusion. We discuss some highlights from the empirical literature on the impact of networks on behaviors and diffusion. We also discuss some of the more prominent models of network interactions, including recent advances regarding interdependent behaviors, modeled via games on networks. JEL Classification Codes: D85, C72, L14, Z13


id: cord-342636-mmlnm3mz
title: The Pandemics in Artificial Society: Agent-Based Model to Reflect Strategies on COVID-19
author: Situngkir, H.
date: 2020-07-29
txt: ./txt/cord-342636-mmlnm3mz.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-342636-mmlnm3mz.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: http://medrxiv.org/cgi/content/short/2020.07.27.20162511v1?rss=1
doi: 10.1101/2020.07.27.20162511
summary:
  We elaborate on micro-social structures such as social-psychological factors and distributed ruling behaviors to grow an artificial society where the interactions among agents may exhibit the spreading of the virus. We can see the micro-social used in the simulations as three parts, i.e.: the internal state of the agents, the mobility in our artificial world, and the spreading of the disease based on the first two properties. When it comes to closing down the public spaces (in the simulation we omit the social attraction points) and encouraging the effective physical distancing measures to the population, the number infection rate is suppressed a little. As we simulated the usage of masks in our agent-based model, the slowing rate of infection does give effect even though it needs time to suppress the number of active cases. Thus from our sets of experiments in the agent-based simulation, some tweaks of interventions due to the pandemic at the micro-level, the emerged macro-level is observed, including some emerged social aspects.

abstract:
  Various social policies and strategies have been deliberated and used within many countries to handle the COVID-19 pandemic. Some of those basic ideas are strongly related to the understanding of human social interactions and the nature of disease transmission and spread. In this paper, we present an agent- based approach to model epidemiological phenomena as well as the interventions upon it. We elaborate on micro-social structures such as social-psychological factors and distributed ruling behaviors to grow an artificial society where the interactions among agents may exhibit the spreading of the virus. Capturing policies and strategies during the pandemic, four types of intervention are also applied in society. Emerged macro-properties of epidemics are delivered from sets of simulations, lead to comparisons between each effectivity of the policy/strategy.


id: cord-348106-agwdmtug
title: Omnichannel Marketing: Are Cross-Channel Effects Symmetric?
author: Shankar, Venkatesh
date: 2020-09-07
txt: ./txt/cord-348106-agwdmtug.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-348106-agwdmtug.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://api.elsevier.com/content/article/pii/S016781162030077X
doi: 10.1016/j.ijresmar.2020.09.001
summary:
  The rapid growth in omnichannel (e.g., Web, call center, sales agent, store) shopping and the need to effectively allocate resources across channels are prompting managers and researchers to better understand cross-channel effects, that is, the effects of marketing efforts in one distribution channel on shopping outcomes in other channels. While the effect of marketing efforts in a channel on shopping outcomes in a dissimilar (with a different primary influence role) channel is positive (e.g., exclusive agent, the Web, and the call center channels are complementary), the magnitudes of the cross-channel effects are asymmetric. While the effect of marketing efforts in a channel on shopping outcomes in a dissimilar (with a different primary influence role and richness) channel is positive (e.g., J o u r n a l P r e -p r o o f Journal Pre-proof exclusive agent, the Web, and the call center channels are complementary), the directions and extent of cross-channel effects are asymmetric.

abstract:
  The rapid growth in omnichannel (e.g., Web, call center, sales agent, store) shopping and the need to effectively allocate resources across channels are prompting managers and researchers to better understand cross-channel effects, that is, the effects of marketing efforts in one distribution channel on shopping outcomes in other channels. We develop a broad set of hypotheses about cross-channel effects based on channel richness and influence roles (informative, persuasive). To test the hypotheses, we model the effects (own and cross) of channel marketing efforts on shopping outcomes in different channels through a simultaneous equation system. We estimate these models using data from the auto insurance industry that comprises the exclusive agent, the independent agent, the Web, and the call center channels. Our results offer novel insights. They show that cross-channel effects and elasticities are significant and asymmetric. While the effect of marketing efforts in a channel on shopping outcomes in a dissimilar (with a different primary influence role) channel is positive (e.g., exclusive agent, the Web, and the call center channels are complementary), the magnitudes of the cross-channel effects are asymmetric. Similarly, while the effect of marketing efforts in a channel on shopping outcomes in a similar (with the same primary influence role) channel is negative (e.g., independent agent and exclusive agent channels are substitutional), they are also asymmetric. Exclusive agent efforts have a greater negative effect on the outcomes of independent agent efforts than vice versa. Based on the results, we develop a channel influence vs. influenceability analysis tool for managers to better plan their channel efforts. We also illustrate a resource allocation model that shows substantial incremental profits from the reallocation of marketing efforts based on our model with cross-channel effects relative to a model without cross-channel effects.


id: cord-349066-546ozkly
title: Principles of Diagnosis of Infectious Diseases
author: Walker, D.H.
date: 2014-08-21
txt: ./txt/cord-349066-546ozkly.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-349066-546ozkly.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/B9780123864567017135
doi: 10.1016/b978-0-12-386456-7.01713-5
summary:
  The methods of detection include cultivation of bacteria and fungi on growth medium, isolation of viruses in cell culture, and identification of the agent biochemically, antigenically, or genetically. Visualization of an agent in infected tissue can provide a diagnosis based on specific morphological characteristics or identify the category of organism, for example, gram-positive or gram-negative bacterium or virus (e.g., eosinophilic cytoplasmic inclusion bodies in neurons in rabies virus infection). Specific diagnoses require isolation of the agent in culture, microscopic visualization of the pathogen in tissue lesions, and/or detection of a specific host immune response to the organism. Identification of fungi has been accelerated greatly in microbiology laboratories by performing either hybridization tests or polymerase chain reaction (PCR) on media growing a fungus that is not identifiable by conventional morphological techniques such as blood culture bottles that contain yeast growth.

abstract:
  Infectious diseases are diagnosed by detection of a bacterium, virus, fungus, protozoan, or helminth in a patient with a compatible clinical illness. The methods of detection include cultivation of bacteria and fungi on growth medium, isolation of viruses in cell culture, and identification of the agent biochemically, antigenically, or genetically. Infectious diseases can also be identified by detection of a specific immune response, usually antibodies, that develop during the course of illness. Visualization of an agent in infected tissue can provide a diagnosis based on specific morphological characteristics or identify the category of organism, for example, gram-positive or gram-negative bacterium or virus (e.g., eosinophilic cytoplasmic inclusion bodies in neurons in rabies virus infection). Methods that detect and allow visualization of antigens (immunohistochemistry) or nucleic acid sequences (in situ hybridization) provide more specific diagnoses. Detection of specific nucleic acid sequences amplified by polymerase chain reaction is a powerful molecular diagnostic tool. Since the elucidation of the etiology of the first infectious disease, anthrax, more than 135 years ago, Koch's postulates have been applied and modified as novel technologies and agents have emerged. During the last 45 years, more than 70 previously unknown agents of infections have been identified in emerging infectious diseases, a phenomenon that is likely to continue.


id: cord-353297-jizitnfl
title: Viruses and Bioterrorism
author: Meyer, R.F.
date: 2008-07-30
txt: ./txt/cord-353297-jizitnfl.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-353297-jizitnfl.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://api.elsevier.com/content/article/pii/B9780123744104005495
doi: 10.1016/b978-012374410-4.00549-5
summary:
  The requirements for an ideal biological warfare agent include availability, ease of production, stability after production, a susceptible population, absence of specific treatment, ability to incapacitate or kill the host, appropriate particle size in aerosol so that the virus can be carried long distances by prevailing winds and inhaled deeply into the lungs of unsuspecting victims, ability to be disseminated via food or water, and the availability of a vaccine to protect certain groups. Instead, the ectromelia virus vector expressing IL-4 altered the host''s immune response to this virus resulting in lethal infections in normally genetically Classification of viral agents that are considered to be of concern for bioterrorism and biowarfare and those that have been weaponized or studied for offensive or defensive purposes as part of former or current national biological weapons programs resistant mice (e.g., C57BL/6).

abstract:
  The use of viral agents for biological warfare has a long history, which predates their recognition and isolation by culture. Advances in viral culture and virus stabilization made during the second half of the twentieth century raised the level of concern by facilitating the large-scale production of viral agents for aerosol dissemination. Furthermore, the nucleic acid of many viruses, including some that are currently not threats, can be manipulated in the laboratory. Thus, the potential for genetic engineering and misuse of biotechnology is a serious threat. An effective defense against viral agents requires a comprehensive approach including restricting access to viral stocks, detecting deliberately induced disease outbreaks, rapid laboratory identification of viral agents in clinical specimens, preventing person-to-person transmission, using reliable decontamination procedures, and developing effective vaccines and antiviral drugs.


id: cord-354130-mi7saerx
title: Microbiological Monitoring in Individually Ventilated Cage Systems
author: Compton, Susan R.
date: 2004
txt: ./txt/cord-354130-mi7saerx.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-354130-mi7saerx.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/15514655/
doi: 10.1038/laban1104-36
summary:
  The limitations of molecular methods are that they are relatively expensive, they can yield both false negative and false positive results, their high sensitivity makes them prone to cross-contamination, and many substances found in blood, feces, and other animal tissues can function Methods such as exposing sentinels to soiled bedding, as used traditionally with mice housed in static isolator cages, also require reassessment for their applicability in IVC systems. There are many ways of detecting an infectious agent that has been transmitted to one or more rodents housed in IVCs. The most direct method of surveillance is to monitor the colony mice themselves for evidence of an infection. The decreased intercage spread of an infectious agent means that infections are sporadic and confined to just a few cages at a time, and it is therefore essential to use an adequate sample size when monitoring mice housed in IVC systems.

abstract:
  Housing rodents in IVC racks has many advantages over conventional cages but also presents unique challenges related to health monitoring. The authors review the issues to consider in design of a sentinel program using IVC systems.


id: cord-355024-v5lahyw4
title: Principles of Infectious Diseases: Transmission, Diagnosis, Prevention, and Control
author: van Seventer, Jean Maguire
date: 2016-10-24
txt: ./txt/cord-355024-v5lahyw4.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-355024-v5lahyw4.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/B9780128036785005166
doi: 10.1016/b978-0-12-803678-5.00516-6
summary:
  An infectious disease can be defined as an illness due to a pathogen or its toxic product, which arises through transmission from an infected person, an infected animal, or a contaminated inanimate object to a susceptible host. The outcome of exposure to an infectious agent depends, in part, upon multiple host factors that determine individual susceptibility to infection and disease. The goal of secondary prevention is to halt the progress of an infection during its early, often asymptomatic stages so as to prevent disease development or limit its severity; steps important for not only improving the prognosis of individual cases but also preventing infectious agent transmission. Broadly, public health efforts to control infectious diseases focus on primary and secondary prevention activities that reduce the potential for exposure to an infectious agent and increase host resistance to infection. A susceptible host is an individual who is at risk of infection and disease following exposure to an infectious agent.

abstract:
  Infectious disease control and prevention relies on a thorough understanding of the factors determining transmission. This article summarizes the fundamental principles of infectious disease transmission while highlighting many of the agent, host, and environmental determinants of these diseases that are of particular import to public health professionals. Basic principles of infectious disease diagnosis, control, and prevention are also reviewed.


id: cord-355834-kziy850d
title: Antimicrobial concrete for smart and durable infrastructures: A review
author: Qiu, Liangsheng
date: 2020-11-10
txt: ./txt/cord-355834-kziy850d.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-355834-kziy850d.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0950061820324612
doi: 10.1016/j.conbuildmat.2020.120456
summary:
  In addition, the combination of water repellents (decrease bio-receptivity) plus biocides (decrease biological activity) has been reported to be effectively inhibiting microbial growth in mortars, white concretes and autoclaved aerated concretes [45, 46] . Mortar with antimicrobial watertight admixture had higher pH(6.8) and lower concentration of sulfuric acid(3.78 Â 10 -8 mol/L) compared to that (6.6 and 2.56 Â 10 À7 mol/L) of plain mortar Zinc oxide, sodium bromide, copper slag, ammonium chloride, cetyl-methylammonium bromide [19] Algae Mortar Adding 20 wt% zinc oxide and 20 wt% sodium bromide exhibited the most effective algal inhibition under laboratory conditionThe addition of 20 wt% sodium bromide and 10 wt% cetyl-methyl-ammonium bromide (an organic antimicrobial agent) showed highest inhibitory effects at under field condition FNA [44] N.A. Concrete H 2 S uptake rate decreased by 84-92% 1-2 months and viable bacterial cells reduced from 84.6 ± 8.3% to 10.7 ± 4.3% within 39 h after FNA spray.

abstract:
  Concrete structures in sewer systems, marine engineering, underground engineering and other humid environments are easily subjected to microbial attachment, colonization and, eventually, deterioration. With careful selection and treatment, some additives including inorganic and organic antimicrobial agents were found to be able to endow concrete with excellent antimicrobial performance. This paper reviews various types of antimicrobial concrete fabricated with different types of antimicrobial agents. The classification and methods of applying antimicrobial agents into concrete are briefly introduced. The antimicrobial and mechanical properties as well as mass/weight loss of concrete incorporating antimicrobial agents are summarized. Applications reported in this field are presented and future research opportunities and challenges of antimicrobial concrete are also discussed in this review.


