id	author	title	date	pages	extension	mime	words	sentences	flesch	summary	cache	txt
cord-167454-ivhqeu01	Battiston, Pietro	COVID-19: $R_0$ is lower where outbreak is larger	2020-04-16		.txt	text/plain	4524	201	51	Specifically, we employ daily data on the number of individuals positive to COVID-19 at the municipality level, focusing on a period in which the entire country was subject to a lockdown. Note: fit between data and the corresponding SIR model for Lombardy region (left) and the most affected municipalities at the beginning of our period of interest in absolute and per capita terms, respectively (center, right). In order to shed light on this indeterminacy, we proceed to simulating the SIR model for each municipality until the predicted size of the infected population decreases below either (i) 0.1 cases for one thousands inhabitants or (ii) 0.1 cases 6 and we consider the number of periods elapsed as the outbreak duration. We show that in Lombardy, during a lockdown, the basic reproduction number for COVID-19 reacts negatively to the initial size of an outbreak at the municipality level, an effect which cannot be explained by the population having reached herd immunity.	./cache/cord-167454-ivhqeu01.txt	./txt/cord-167454-ivhqeu01.txt