id	author	title	date	pages	extension	mime	words	sentences	flesch	summary	cache	txt
cord-221669-uokr4mjq	Barnes, T.	The SHIR Model: Realistic Fits to COVID-19 Case Numbers	2020-07-28		.txt	text/plain	7643	403	65	As an example we show that the average time dependence of new COVID-19 cases per day from 15 Central and Western European countries is in good agreement with the analytic, parameter-free prediction of the model We will follow this with more detailed SHIR-model calculations of the cumulative case numbers N 0 f I (t) and especially the new cases per day (cpd), N 0 df I (t)/dt, and will describe detailed fits of these functions to COVID-19 data from a range of countries. In this section we will show results from fitting the predicted early pandemic time dependence from the SHIR model as derived in Sec.IIIA to data for the confirmed COVID-19 case numbers from many different countries. The total case numbers P max differ from their mean by ±2%, the fitted social response times τ Next we will follow the same procedure described in the first Austrian fit above, and will fit the SHIR model to the cpd data for each of a representative set of Central and Western European countries.	./cache/cord-221669-uokr4mjq.txt	./txt/cord-221669-uokr4mjq.txt