id	author	title	date	pages	extension	mime	words	sentences	flesch	summary	cache	txt
cord-307834-shmpfnrj	Massad, Eduardo	Two complementary model-based methods for calculating the risk of international spreading of a novel virus from the outbreak epicentre. The case of COVID-19	2020-06-09		.txt	text/plain	3754	200	55	The second model calculates the probability that an infected traveller will generate at least one secondary autochthonous case in the visited country. Next, we calculate the values of parameters π and σ from equations (9a) and (9b) to estimate the probability that the infected traveller who imported the virus to his/her home country would generate at least one secondary case, according to equation (11) . One model addresses the case of disease exportation from the epidemic outbreak and considers a certain number of travellers leaving the epidemic region during the incubation period, thereby importing the virus into another country. We simulated the model with the same case of the province of Hubei in China and the results show that one single infective traveller would be able to generate at least one secondary autochthonous case in the visited country, along his/her infectiousness period, with a probability of 23%.	./cache/cord-307834-shmpfnrj.txt	./txt/cord-307834-shmpfnrj.txt