id	author	title	date	pages	extension	mime	words	sentences	flesch	summary	cache	txt
cord-323591-8r30lsq8	Martinez, Edson Zangiacomi	Long-term forecasts of the COVID-19 epidemic: a dangerous idea	2020-08-26		.txt	text/plain	2353	102	51	Among other important contributions, mathematical and statistical models are being used to forecast the short and long term course of the COVID-19 epidemic in a given population; these results are useful for estimating medical capacity requirements and to keep the public and decision-makers informed. Considering the model based on the Richards curve, it is estimated that in SP there will be K = 2,276,152 cases of COVID-19 by the end of the epidemic, and the peak of cases will occur on day b = 186.1 (tentatively, August 28, 2020). Figure 3 shows estimates of parameters K and b obtained from the fit of Richards models to the daily COVID-19 reports in SP and CE, considering a time series beginning on the date of notification of the first case in each state and ending on different dates, in a range from April 14 to July 8, 2020.	./cache/cord-323591-8r30lsq8.txt	./txt/cord-323591-8r30lsq8.txt