id	author	title	date	pages	extension	mime	words	sentences	flesch	summary	cache	txt
cord-315466-74m7cur3	Plank, M. J.	Potential reduction in transmission of COVID-19 by digital contact tracing systems	2020-09-01		.txt	text/plain	6497	350	52	We use an age-structured branching process model of the transmission of COVID-19 in different settings to estimate the potential of manual contact tracing and digital tracing systems to help control the epidemic. We investigate the effect of the uptake rate and proportion of contacts recorded by the digital system on key model outputs: the effective reproduction number, the mean outbreak size after 30 days, and the probability of elimination. While contact tracing alone is unlikely to contain the spread of COVID-19 Kucharski et al., 2020) , in countries like New Zealand where cases have been reduced to very low numbers (Cousins, 2020; Binny et al., 2020) , it may allow population-wide social distancing measures to be relaxed. Manual-only contact tracing (which corresponds to a digital uptake rate of = 0 in Fig. 3 ) with moderately (50%) effective quarantine of pre-symptomatic or subclinical individuals reduced to 1.55, the mean outbreak size to approximately 34 and increased the probability of extinction to 67%.	./cache/cord-315466-74m7cur3.txt	./txt/cord-315466-74m7cur3.txt