id	author	title	date	pages	extension	mime	words	sentences	flesch	summary	cache	txt
cord-142894-jrkqfl9p	Bandt, Christoph	Transparent Covid-19 prediction	2020-04-08		.txt	text/plain	3611	252	71	Roughly speaking, the analysis of weekly new infections for each day is a tool for the definition and early detection of the turning point of the epidemic. Our estimates of the time course of Covid-19 activity and reproduction rates can reduce the information gap by several days. In general the estimated reproduction rates become undercritical a short time after the main lockdown measures, and the Covid-19 activity starts to decrease afterwards. To describe the global Covid-19 infections, Johns Hopkins University established the now famous database of cumulated numbers of confirmed cases, deaths and recoveries, for each day t and each country or region [10] . So because of the delay of 14 days, the number q t is an estimate for the daily reproduction rate of the disease at time t − 15.5. The reproduction rate crossed the critical line almost instantly, sometimes even before the main lockdown speech, and the apex of Covid-19 activity was reached very few days later.	./cache/cord-142894-jrkqfl9p.txt	./txt/cord-142894-jrkqfl9p.txt