id	author	title	date	pages	extension	mime	words	sentences	flesch	summary	cache	txt
cord-252664-h02qy4z0	Kontis, V.	Age- and sex-specific total mortality impacts of the early weeks of the Covid-19 pandemic in England and Wales: Application of a Bayesian model ensemble to mortality statistics	2020-05-25		.txt	text/plain	5884	267	64	title: Ageand sex-specific total mortality impacts of the early weeks of the Covid-19 pandemic in England and Wales: Application of a Bayesian model ensemble to mortality statistics Methods: We developed an ensemble of 16 Bayesian models that probabilistically estimate the weekly number of deaths that would be expected had the Covid-19 pandemic not occurred. We developed and applied methodology to quantify the weekly mortality impacts of the Covid-19 pandemic and associated responses by age group and sex in England and Wales. We developed an ensemble of 16 short-term Bayesian mortality projection models that each make an estimate of weekly death rates that would be expected if the Covid-19 pandemic had not occurred. . https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.05.20.20107680 doi: medRxiv preprint already a >92% probability that there were more deaths in both sexes and all age groups ≥45 years than would occur in the absence of the pandemic; the probability was 100% (i.e., every one of the 16,000 draws were positive) from the subsequent week (Figures 2 and 3) .	./cache/cord-252664-h02qy4z0.txt	./txt/cord-252664-h02qy4z0.txt