id	author	title	date	pages	extension	mime	words	sentences	flesch	summary	cache	txt
cord-262787-3a3c8ee1	Ray, Debashree	Predictions, role of interventions and effects of a historic national lockdown in India's response to the COVID-19 pandemic: data science call to arms	2020-04-18		.txt	text/plain	7829	429	53	Objective: To study the shortand long-term impact of an initial 21-day lockdown on the total number of COVID-19 cases in India compared to other less severe non-pharmaceutical interventions using epidemiological forecasting models and Bayesian estimation algorithms; to compare effects of hypothetical durations of lockdown from an epidemiological perspective; to study alternative explanations for slower growth rate of the virus outbreak in India, including exploring the association of the number of cases and average monthly temperature; and finally, to outline the pivotal role of reliable and transparent data, reproducible data science methods, tools and products as we reopen the country and prepare for a post lock-down phase of the pandemic. Results: Our predicted cumulative number of COVID-19 cases in India on April 30 assuming a 1-week delay in people's adherence to a 21-day lockdown (March 25 April 14) and a gradual, moderate resumption of daily activities after April 14 is 9,181 with upper 95% CI of 72,245.	./cache/cord-262787-3a3c8ee1.txt	./txt/cord-262787-3a3c8ee1.txt