id author title date pages extension mime words sentences flesch summary cache txt cord-271425-ysdw31nq Carson, R. T. COVID-19's U.S. Temperature Response Profile 2020-11-05 .txt text/plain 13174 696 52 By largely replacing the death counts states report daily, with counts based on death certificate date, we build a week-ahead statistical forecasting model that explains most of the daily variation (R-square = 0.97) and isolates the COVID-19 temperature response profile (p < 0.001). We investigate (Table S6 ) the sensitivity of our results to range of alternative specifications (e.g., different infection pool indicators, different temperature scaling functions, adding absolute humidity, relative humidity, ultraviolet radiation, the inclusion of shelter-in-place/reopening orders, lagged cumulative death counts, and use of the CTP death counts) and provide further discussion of modelling issues in the Supplementary Information (SI) section on Modeling Approach. The SI section on Alternative Specifications for Base Death Count Model describes additional analyses that (a) look at alternative temperature scaling functions, (b) substitute DailyDeadit-14 or NewPositivesit-7 for DailyDeadit-7, and (c) add the dates of state actions such as shelter-in-place orders as control variables. ./cache/cord-271425-ysdw31nq.txt ./txt/cord-271425-ysdw31nq.txt