id	author	title	date	pages	extension	mime	words	sentences	flesch	summary	cache	txt
cord-276374-i37ygb2z	Deasy, Jacob	Forecasting ultra-early intensive care strain from COVID-19 in England	2020-03-23		.txt	text/plain	2980	159	49	Here we present an attempt at an agile short-range forecast based on published real-time COVID-19 case data from the seven National Health Service commissioning regions in England (East of England, London, Midlands, North East and Yorkshire, North West, South East and South West). In this paper we use published COVID-19 diagnosis data for England to generate the earliest possible estimates of additional ICU demand due to infections in the coming days, based on cautious epidemiological data from the literature and under the assumption that the current increase in cases represents the exponential phase of an outbreak rather than a change in ascertainment. 19.20039057 doi: medRxiv preprint Figure 4: Projected regional COVID-19 ICU occupancy as a percentage of regional capacity in the seven National Health Service commissioning regions in England. Our data suggests that traditional ICU capacity could be rapidly consumed over a period of approximately 14 days from the time of modelling/writing, such figures hide substantial regional heterogeneity, with London and the Midlands demonstrating the most rapid growth.	./cache/cord-276374-i37ygb2z.txt	./txt/cord-276374-i37ygb2z.txt