id	author	title	date	pages	extension	mime	words	sentences	flesch	summary	cache	txt
cord-284555-5qbigvun	Kent, David M.	When predictions are used to allocate scarce health care resources: three considerations for models in the era of Covid-19	2020-05-20		.txt	text/plain	1760	93	40	MAIN BODY: We review three issues of importance for microallocation: (1) Prediction of benefit (or of medical futility) may be technically very challenging; (2) When resources are scarce, calibration is less important for microallocation than is ranking to prioritize patients, since capacity determines thresholds for resource utilization; (3) The concept of group fairness, which is not germane in shared decision-making, is of central importance in microallocation. Because prognostication by physician clinical judgment is vulnerable to myriad cognitive biases [2] and prone to error [3, 4] , and because the extreme psychological burdens of this approach to allocation of life-saving resources should be avoided, there is an important potential role for prognostic models. While more generally it is assumed that patients at highest risk derive the most benefit from medical interventions, amongst the critically ill, this assumption is turned on its head: medical futility (i.e. dismal prognosis despite maximal therapy) is typically thought to be the most useful prediction for withholding of scarce critical care resources.	./cache/cord-284555-5qbigvun.txt	./txt/cord-284555-5qbigvun.txt