id	author	title	date	pages	extension	mime	words	sentences	flesch	summary	cache	txt
cord-284965-6hss53nu	Evans, M. V.	Reconciling model predictions with low reported cases of COVID-19 in Sub-Saharan Africa: Insights from Madagascar	2020-07-17		.txt	text/plain	3092	168	53	We show that the current incidence of COVID-19 cases can be explained by any combination of the late introduction of first imported cases, early implementation of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), and low case detection rates. There are three leading potential explanations for the lower observed burden of 89 COVID-19 in SSA: 1) low case detection, 2) region-specific epidemiology (e.g., different R0), and 90 . https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.07.15.20149195 doi: medRxiv preprint Our exercise shows that the current incidence of COVID-19 in Madagascar can be 145 explained by the early and effective implementation of NPIs and low case detection rates, both of 146 which are supported by strong anecdotal evidence. We demonstrate that the 220 current trend in reported cases in Madagascar can be explained by its early stage in the epidemic, 221 combined with low detection rates and lower contact rates from NPIs ( Fig. 2A) .	./cache/cord-284965-6hss53nu.txt	./txt/cord-284965-6hss53nu.txt