id	author	title	date	pages	extension	mime	words	sentences	flesch	summary	cache	txt
cord-300222-kzzx8ni7	Mellan, T. A.	Report 21: Estimating COVID-19 cases and reproduction number in Brazil	2020-05-18		.txt	text/plain	4483	227	51	Considering an R 0 of 3 and transmissibility similar to that observed across European [7] and Brazilian [16] settings, the estimated share of the population infected to date remains far short of the 70% herd immunity threshold required to prevent rapid resurgence of the virus if control measures are relaxed. In order to examine the effect of these assumptions on the conclusions described above, we undertook a series of sensitivity analyses (see Appendix) exploring different assumptions surrounding state-level IFR (relating to assumptions about how healthcare quality varies with state income) and the extent of death underreporting. In this report we utilise a semi-mechanistic Bayesian model of COVID-19 transmission, calibrated using data on reported deaths at the state level, to infer the epidemiological characteristics of the epidemic in Brazil to date. We adopt the Bayesian semi-mechanistic model from [7] to estimate transmission intensity and attack rates of COVID-19 conditional on the reported number of deaths.	./cache/cord-300222-kzzx8ni7.txt	./txt/cord-300222-kzzx8ni7.txt