id	author	title	date	pages	extension	mime	words	sentences	flesch	summary	cache	txt
cord-330880-6lx66w8h	Nikolopoulos, Konstantinos	Forecasting and planning during a pandemic: COVID-19 growth rates, supply chain disruptions, and governmental decisions	2020-08-08		.txt	text/plain	7740	405	54	title: Forecasting and planning during a pandemic: COVID-19 growth rates, supply chain disruptions, and governmental decisions We further model and forecast the excess demand for products and services during the pandemic using auxiliary data (google trends) and simulating governmental decisions (lockdown). Due to these disruptions, shortterm real time forecasts (daily and weekly) about the pandemic and its effect on the supply chain have become a very important managerial and policy-making imperative. An accurate forecast of the evolution of new cases enables the more effective management of the resulting excess demand across the supply chain. To address this need, in this article we forecast the growth of the pandemic at the country-level and evaluate 52 time-series, epidemiological, machine-learning, and deep-learning techniques. We contribute to the latter, the field of SCM, by providing an input (the demand forecasts for the new cases and the selected products), which is essential to decision-making algorithms that involve stock-control, replenishment, advance purchasing, and even rationing 11 , i.e. situations that require a mean forecasted demand over the lead-time.	./cache/cord-330880-6lx66w8h.txt	./txt/cord-330880-6lx66w8h.txt