id	author	title	date	pages	extension	mime	words	sentences	flesch	summary	cache	txt
cord-340805-qbvgnr4r	Ioannidis, John P.A.	Forecasting for COVID-19 has failed	2020-08-25		.txt	text/plain	6084	313	56	Poor data input, wrong modeling assumptions, high sensitivity of estimates, lack of incorporation of epidemiological features, poor past evidence on effects of available interventions, lack of transparency, errors, lack of determinacy, looking at only one or a few dimensions of the problem at hand, lack of expertise in crucial disciplines, groupthink and bandwagon effects and selective reporting are some of the causes of these failures. When major decisions (e.g. draconian lockdowns) are based on forecasts, the harms (in terms of health, economy, and society at large) and the asymmetry of risks need to be approached in a holistic fashion, considering the totality of the evidence.	./cache/cord-340805-qbvgnr4r.txt	./txt/cord-340805-qbvgnr4r.txt