id	author	title	date	pages	extension	mime	words	sentences	flesch	summary	cache	txt
cord-342108-5xd68rie	Warne, D. J.	Hindsight is 2020 vision: Characterisation of the global response to the COVID-19 pandemic	2020-05-05		.txt	text/plain	6830	424	56	Here, we consider a stochastic epidemiological model in which the true infected population is unobservable and a regulatory mechanism on the virus transmission process is included to capture the community response to a COVID-19 outbreak. Approximate Bayesian computation (Materials and Methods) [12] is applied to adaptively sample the approximate posterior distributions for all eight model parameters and posterior predictive distributions for the number of active confirmed cases, recoveries and deaths over time. Fig. 2 shows the distribution of these point estimates across all countries, and highlights countries having the highest cumulative confirmed cases to date (31 March 2020) without a decline in active cases: the United States (USA), Spain (ESP), Italy (ITA), Germany (DEU), France (FRA), United Kingdom (GBR), Iran (IRN), and Switzerland (CHE). This indicates a high tolerance response in which the transmission rate did not decline significantly until cases increased to larger numbers (See Fig. 6 in Materials and Meth-5 All rights reserved.	./cache/cord-342108-5xd68rie.txt	./txt/cord-342108-5xd68rie.txt