id	author	title	date	pages	extension	mime	words	sentences	flesch	summary	cache	txt
cord-351941-fgtatt40	Ghaffarzadegan, Navid	Simulation‐based estimation of the early spread of COVID‐19 in Iran: actual versus confirmed cases	2020-07-06		.txt	text/plain	9174	452	52	Estimates using data up to March 20th, 2020, point to 916,000 (90% UI: 508 K, 1.5 M) cumulative cases and 15,485 (90% UI: 8.4 K, 25.8 K) total deaths, numbers an order of magnitude higher than official statistics. The current paper focuses on using a standard dynamic epidemiological model as a tool for incorporating various sources of data into a unified estimation of the actual trajectory of disease, applying the method to COVID-19 outbreak in Iran. We also use unofficial data points including four observations about the number of Iranian passengers diagnosed with COVID-19 upon arrival in international airports, and three estimates aggregated by healthcare providers in Iran and reported by BBC and Iran International news agencies about total cases of death from COVID-19. We define a likelihood function for change over time (net-inflow) of official reports on cumulative death, recovered and infection assuming they are count events drawn from model-predicted rates (Poisson distribution).	./cache/cord-351941-fgtatt40.txt	./txt/cord-351941-fgtatt40.txt