id	author	title	date	pages	extension	mime	words	sentences	flesch	summary	cache	txt
cord-163587-zjnr7vwm	Altmejd, Adam	Nowcasting Covid-19 statistics reported withdelay: a case-study of Sweden	2020-06-11		.txt	text/plain	3508	225	62	In this paper we describe a statistical methodology for nowcasting the epidemic statistics, such as hospitalizations or deaths, and their degrees of uncertainty, based on the daily reported event frequency and the observed distribution pattern of reporting delays. We propose to use the removal method, developed in animal management (Pollock, 1991) , to present an estimate of the actual frequencies at a given day and their uncertainty. To account for this, we allow the estimated proportions of daily reported cases to follow a probability distribution taking into consideration what type of day it is. We propose a Bayesian version of the removal model that assumes an overdispersed binomial distribution for the daily observations of deaths in Sweden in COVID-19. Another limitation is that the model assumes that the number of new reported deaths for a given day cannot be negative, which is not actually true, due to miscount or misclassification of days.	./cache/cord-163587-zjnr7vwm.txt	./txt/cord-163587-zjnr7vwm.txt