id	author	title	date	pages	extension	mime	words	sentences	flesch	summary	cache	txt
cord-300570-xes201g7	Patwardhan, J.	PREDICTIONS FOR EUROPE FOR THE COVID-19 PANDEMICAFTER LOCKDOWN WAS LIFTED USING AN SIR MODEL	2020-10-06		.txt	text/plain	5297	247	64	The data is observed to fit the model as predicted until around 150 days after December 31, 2019, after which many countries lift their lockdowns and begin to reopen. An analysis of the residuals is provided to locate the precise date of the departure of each country from its accepted data estimates and test each data point to its predicted value using a Z-test to determine whether each observation can fit the given model. After around Day 170, the model predicts small X2 values with small standards of deviation, so observed residuals at this point mostly represent the growth of the virus itself during that time. Finally, an examination of the date of the first deaths in each country compared to the days until the model began to deviate from its expected behavior yields no relation, indicating that any failure of the observed data points to conform to the model is most likely due to the policy measures taken in each country.	./cache/cord-300570-xes201g7.txt	./txt/cord-300570-xes201g7.txt