id	author	title	date	pages	extension	mime	words	sentences	flesch	summary	cache	txt
cord-331347-imexhlwn	Anzai, Asami	Assessing the Impact of Reduced Travel on Exportation Dynamics of Novel Coronavirus Infection (COVID-19)	2020-02-24		.txt	text/plain	4470	235	55	Data on confirmed cases diagnosed outside China were analyzed using statistical models to estimate the impact of travel reduction on three epidemiological outcome measures: (i) the number of exported cases, (ii) the probability of a major epidemic, and (iii) the time delay to a major epidemic. We aim to estimate reductions in the number of exported cases, probability of an outbreak occurring outside China, and any time delay to a major epidemic that may be gained with these policies. The present study explicitly quantified the epidemiological impact of reduced travel volume to and from China on the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 outside China using simple statistical The solid lines represent the probability of a major epidemic in the counterfactual scenario, i.e., based on the expected number of cases diagnosed in Japan.	./cache/cord-331347-imexhlwn.txt	./txt/cord-331347-imexhlwn.txt