# pos

id: cord-340805-qbvgnr4r
pos: NNP
token:
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lemma:
  https://www.yahoo.com/now/reopeningstates-will-cause-233000-more-people-to-die-from-coronavirusaccording-to-wharton-model-120049573.html


id: cord-284945-837qlk8y
pos: NNP
token:
  https://www.wcvb.com/article/massachusetts-coronavirus-reporting-delay-due-to-quest-lab-itglitch/32288903

lemma:
  https://www.wcvb.com/article/massachusetts-coronavirus-reporting-delay-due-to-quest-lab-itglitch/32288903


# ent

id: cord-000757-bz66g9a0
type: ORG
entity:
  World Health Organization International Statistical Classification of Disease and Related Health Problems Tenth Revision Version for


id: cord-000757-bz66g9a0
type: ORG
entity:
  the Steering Committee to Reengineer the Death Registration Process National Association for Public Health Statistics and Information Systems


id: cord-021399-gs3i7wbe
type: DISEASE
entity:
  human immunodeficiency virus acquired immunodeficiency syndrome HIV AIDS Herpes simplex virus 1 encephalitis


id: cord-016536-8wfyaxcb
type: GGP
entity:
  Specifi c Explanations of a General Pattern The SPIRITual History Religion and Depression A Review of the Literature Religious Involvement and Mortality A Meta Analytic Review Income Dynamics and Adult Mortality in the United States The Case for More Active Policy Attention


id: cord-016536-8wfyaxcb
type: ORG
entity:
  Health Problems Health and Ways of Living The Alameda County Study Social Determinants of Health Meeting


id: cord-016536-8wfyaxcb
type: WORK_OF_ART
entity:
  The State of the Debate on Inequality FPP 04 5 Ottawa Canada Canadian Foundation for the Americas FOCAL Regional Obesity and Risk of Cardiovascular Disease


id: cord-016536-8wfyaxcb
type: ORG
entity:
  Cambridge MA Harvard Center for Population and Development Studies Alternative Projections of Mortality and


id: cord-016536-8wfyaxcb
type: ORG
entity:
  q23 Impact of Regional Climate Change on Human Health Global Prescriptions Gendering Health and Human Rights Levels of Physical Activity and Inactivity in Children and Adults


id: cord-016536-8wfyaxcb
type: ORG
entity:
  Health A Review and Redirection Men s Health Chronic Lower Respiratory Diseases World Health Organization


id: cord-020757-q4ivezyq
type: PROTEIN
entity:
  X linked IAP XIAP c IAP1 c IAP2 Melanoma IAP ML IAP Livin IAPlike protein 2 ILP 2 neuronal apoptosis inhibitory protein NAIP Bruce Apollon


id: cord-015651-yhi83hgq
type: DATE
entity:
  between 1971 and 2008 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007


id: cord-015651-yhi83hgq
type: DATE
entity:
  1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995


id: cord-016557-f2mzwhrt
type: CELL_LINE
entity:
  Chinese hamster ovary CHO hypoxanthine guanine phosphoribosyl transferase mammalian cell forward gene


id: cord-016557-f2mzwhrt
type: GGP
entity:
  miticides e g avermectins azobenzene benzoximate bromopropylate dofenapyn nikkomycins tetranactin ii Algicides


id: cord-016557-f2mzwhrt
type: CHEMICAL
entity:
  ulceration acid base disturbances renal failure hypotension cardiac arrest pulmonary dysfunction convulsions coma


id: cord-016557-f2mzwhrt
type: CHEMICAL
entity:
  3 ethoxypropyl mercury bromide ethylmercury acetate ethylmercury bromide ethylmercury chloride ethylmercury 2 3 dihydroxypropyl mercaptide ethylmercury phosphate N ethylmercury ptoluenesulphonanilide


id: cord-028337-md9om47x
type: ORG
entity:
  Thoracic Society European Society of Intensive Care Medicine Society of Critical Care Medicine Clinical Practice Guideline Mechanical Ventilation


id: cord-262795-u56u9mjz
type: PROTEIN
entity:
  PMID 23810203 CHMP2A charged multivesicular body protein 2A PSMB4 proteasome subunit beta 4 ACTB actin beta GAPDH glyceraldehyde 3 phosphate dehydrogenase


id: cord-023355-yi2bh0js
type: PROTEIN
entity:
  factor 67 Smac DIABLO 80 82 Second Mitochondrial derived Activator of Caspases Direct Inhibitor of Apoptosis Binding protein


id: cord-350261-7lkcdisr
type: ORG
entity:
  COVID 19 Chennai Directorate of Public Health and Preventive Medicine Health and Family Welfare Department Government


id: cord-006664-ykfvbypo
type: CL
entity:
  vascular endothelial damage and ultimately end organ injury An analogous situation occurs in the failing myocardium where reactive oxygen species inflammatory cytokines NO


id: cord-354372-vfvnjmv1
type: GGP
entity:
  epidemia covid 19 riguardanti il settore funebre Emergenza covid 19 circolare ministero salute n 11285 del 1 4 2020 e ordinanza del capo dipartimento di protezione civile n


id: cord-354372-vfvnjmv1
type: FAC
entity:
  Sudden Infant Death Syndrome SIDS A Study of Cardiac Conduction System Postmortem Examination of Patients With COVID


id: cord-287283-t1hnswsq
type: ORG
entity:
  Brain Death China Category II Organ Donation after Circulatory Death China Category III Organ Donation


id: cord-287283-t1hnswsq
type: ORG
entity:
  the Subcommittee on International Operations and Human Rights of the Committee on International Relations House of Representatives


id: cord-302336-zj3oixvk
type: DISEASE
entity:
  cardiovascular conditions atrial fibrillation heart failure stroke peripheral vascular disease coronary heart disease congenital heart disease diabetes type 1 and type 2


id: cord-302336-zj3oixvk
type: DISEASE
entity:
  lung or oral cancer marrow transplant radiotherapy neurological conditions cerebral palsy Parkinson s disease


id: cord-302336-zj3oixvk
type: DISEASE
entity:
  HIV sphingolipidoises short bowel syndrome polymyositis dermatomyositis Ehlers Danlos syndrome biliary cirrhosis hepatitis B


id: cord-031409-7cs1z6x6
type: DNA
entity:
  Atlantic Slave Route Semiotext e Invisible Committee The 2014 To Our Friends The 2017 Now New York Semiotext e 1897 1969 What Maisie Knew


id: cord-031409-7cs1z6x6
type: GGP
entity:
  chronothanatopolitics p 57 that extends mattering beyond the mother child relation to the politics of mattering in the contemporary moment In her discussion of playing dead in 19th century African American literature Freeman notes that many African American stories involve fictive rebirths p 55 These are stagings of death and rebirth not just once but multiple times so that in these stories slaves and their descendants are constantly moving towards and away from death Feigning death she argues does not solve the problem of having not been born as human a position well


id: cord-337763-kusqyumn
type: ORG
entity:
  the Department of Collective Health of the Faculty of Medicine of the Federal University of Uberlândia


id: cord-270408-4qqyb8sd
type: DISEASE
entity:
  cord_uid 4qqyb8sd BACKGROUND Indonesia provides the largest single source of pilgrims for the Hajj 10 In the last


id: cord-275071-2uiaruhg
type: PROTEIN
entity:
  conte ntass ets edc2b 33f85 ad415 d8e79 09002 253ed 84 2020 04 09 E2 80 94pre limin ar stati stik over doda inkl eng


id: cord-343685-iq3njzoi
type: DNA
entity:
  W21 COVID 19 outbreak follows Gompertz exponential law with doubling times in the range 5 0 5 6 a Spain and 3 9 6 7 a Netherlands and roughing double every five years Same happens for the effective IFR in Spain This result is not far from the characteristic time observed for age specific death rates in the past twenty years which are 6 8 a Spain and 6 0 a Netherlands Excess death for the eldest age group climbs to 1 8


id: cord-334835-j6u8t8j2
type: DISEASE
entity:
  hypertension obesity liver cirrhosis chronic neurological 211 disorder active cancer dementia dyspnoea confusion


id: cord-284945-837qlk8y
type: DNA
entity:
  Ecuador 18 Peru 16 6 Chile 15 5 Mexico 8 8 Iran 7 9 Qatar 7 3 Spain 7 1 USA 5 3 UK 5 2 and Netherlands 4 8 See Figure 1 B


id: cord-284945-837qlk8y
type: DNA
entity:
  coronavirus covid 19 3 https www cdc gov coronavirus 2019 ncov cases updates previous testing in us html 4 See e g https www wcvb com article massachusetts coronavirus reporting delay due to quest lab itglitch 32288903 CC BY ND 4 0 International license


id: cord-284945-837qlk8y
type: CELL_LINE
entity:
  RAW DataCmltInfection RAW DataCmltDeath RAW Units Person Day RAW DataFlowInfection RAW DataFlowDeath RAW DataTestRate RAW Units Person Day Cumulative Confirmed Cases New Testing Time Units Person Day DataLimitFromTime


id: cord-284945-837qlk8y
type: ORG
entity:
  Untested Symptomatic Multiplier Transmission Risk for Asymptomatic Net Baseline Transmission Multiplier


id: cord-284945-837qlk8y
type: EVENT
entity:
  Hospital Rgn Tested Cumulative Deaths of Confirmed Untreated Cumulative Deaths of Confirmed Untreated Rgn INTEG Deaths


id: cord-284945-837qlk8y
type: ORG
entity:
  Symptomatic Untested Rgn sum Hospitalized Infectious Deaths Tested Untreated Resolution Rgn Fatality Rate Untreated Post Detection Phase Resolution Time Fatality Rate Untreated Delay Order 1


id: cord-284945-837qlk8y
type: ORG
entity:
  Recovered Unconfirmed Rgn Cumulative Recovered at Hospitals Rgn Notest Baseline Daily Fraction Susceptible


id: cord-284945-837qlk8y
type: ORG
entity:
  Detection Delay Post Detection Phase Resolution Time Incubation Period Units Day Total Simulated Tests Rgn Post Mortem Tests Total Rgn Testing on Living Total Test on Covid Patients Rgn Max 0 min Positive Candidates


id: cord-284945-837qlk8y
type: ORG
entity:
  Untested Symptomatic Relative Risk of Transmission by Presymptomatic 1 Total Asymptomatic Fraction Net Rgn Total Asymptomatic Fraction Net Rgn Baseline Risk of Transmission


id: cord-284945-837qlk8y
type: ORG
entity:
  Asymptomatic Rgn Relative Risk of Transmission by Presymptomatic Units dmnl Active Test Rate Rgn Units


id: cord-284945-837qlk8y
type: ORG
entity:
  Limited Activities Rgn exp Sensitivity of Contact Reduction to Utility Net Rgn Fractional Value of Limited Activities


id: cord-017248-a37t31u1
type: CL
entity:
  stem and spinal cord Prepare frozen sections and request Sudan stain Prepare frozen sections of one half of gland and paraffin sections of the other half Petechial hemorrhages of skin chest neck and face Wounds other traumatic lesions Bone fractures Petechiae of conjunctivas and retinas Fat may accumulate on surface ofblood


id: cord-017248-a37t31u1
type: CL
entity:
  stem encephalitis Listeria monocytogenes brain stem encephalitis viral brain stem encephalitis NOTE See also under Encephalitis limbic Brain For removal and specimen preparation see Chapter 4 Necrotizing encephalitis with or without abscess formation 1 Enterocolitis Other Types or Type Undetermined NOTE A multitude of infectious and noninfectious agents


id: cord-017248-a37t31u1
type: CL
entity:
  stem and spinal cord See also above under Skull and spine and under Possible Associated Conditions Incompetence See Insufficiency Related Terms Battered child syndrome child abuse or child neglect death NOTE Vitreous should not be aspirated until the skull has been opened and trauma ruled out because there is a risk of artifactual damage to the retina In the presence of craniocerebral trauma the pathologist can opt to examine the eyes by removal fixation and histologic study or retinal photography Follow general procedures described under Homicide and if necessary the procedures described under Rape External examination See above under Note Prepare roentgenograms of entire body See above under Note In other situations or after study of the fundus submit sample of vitreous for chemical and possible toxicologic study Umbilical cord attachment Prepare histologic sections of umbilicus and end of umbilical cord Blood Submit sample for toxicologic study Consider retaining dried blood on filter paper for possible DNA


id: cord-017248-a37t31u1
type: GGP
entity:
  Reye s syndrome differential diagnosis Prevalence and non specificity of microvesicular fatty changes


id: cord-017248-a37t31u1
type: DISEASE
entity:
  infectious angiitis necrotizing arteritis polyarteritis nodosa rheumatic arteritis rheumatoid arteritis syphilitic arteritis Takayasu s arteritis


id: cord-017248-a37t31u1
type: DISEASE
entity:
  iris cataracts retinal pigmentation Ischemic lesions Artery Patent Ductal Synonym Patent ductus arteriosus


id: cord-017248-a37t31u1
type: DISEASE
entity:
  Atrial or ventricular septal defect coarctation ofthe aorta conotruncal anomalies necrotizing enterocolitis


id: cord-017248-a37t31u1
type: DISEASE
entity:
  ventricular and atrial walls hypoplastic left atrium mitral valve left ventricle and ascending aorta mitral atresia


id: cord-017248-a37t31u1
type: DISEASE
entity:
  Congenital biliary atresia extrahepatic biliary atresia infantile obstructive cholangio pathy syndromic Alagille s syndrome


id: cord-017248-a37t31u1
type: DISEASE
entity:
  malrotation situs inversus preduodenal portal vein absent inferior vena cava anomalous hepatic artery


id: cord-017248-a37t31u1
type: DISEASE
entity:
  Hemosiderosis idiopathic pulmonary Lipoproteinosis pulmonary alveolar Microlithiasis pulmonary alveolar Pneumonia lipoid


id: cord-017248-a37t31u1
type: DISEASE
entity:
  acute hypersensitivity arteritis hyperthyroidism gastrointestinal hemorrhage hypothyroidism idiopathic arterial calcification


id: cord-017248-a37t31u1
type: DISEASE
entity:
  Dreifuss mucular dystrophy facioscapulohumeral dystrophy limb girdle dystrophy myotonic muscular dystrophy


id: cord-017248-a37t31u1
type: DISEASE
entity:
  Barre syndrome idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis idiopathic thrombocytopenic purpura IgA deficiency lichen planus


id: cord-017248-a37t31u1
type: DISEASE
entity:
  cirrhosis biliary atresia 3 Immunodeficiency See Syndrome acquired immunodeficiency and Syndrome primary immunodeficiency Impression Basilar NOTE Basilar


id: cord-017248-a37t31u1
type: DISEASE
entity:
  acquired immunodeficiency syndrome AIDS cancer cachexia inflammatory bowel disease liver or kidney failure


id: cord-017248-a37t31u1
type: DISEASE
entity:
  reflux 3 neoplasms of lungs esophagus intestine and liver chronic liver disease inflammatory bowel disease pulmonary disease


id: cord-017248-a37t31u1
type: DISEASE
entity:
  Pharynx and gastrointestinal tract Heart liver and kidneys Record skin changes and eye abnormalities


id: cord-017248-a37t31u1
type: DISEASE
entity:
  liver and biliary tract Pulmonary Related Terms Congenital cystic adenomatoid malformation congenital pulmonary lymphangiectasis intralobular bronchopulmonary sequestration


id: cord-017248-a37t31u1
type: DISEASE
entity:
  Collagenous inorganic dust pneumoconiosis nodular type Silicosis Noncollagenous inorganic dust pneumoconiosis


id: cord-017248-a37t31u1
type: DISEASE
entity:
  Acute lymphocytic leukemia acute myelocytic leukemia acute megakaryocytic leukemia Cardiovascular disease


id: cord-017248-a37t31u1
type: DISEASE
entity:
  atrioventricular septal defect subpulmonary stenosis pulmonary valve atresia midline symmetric liver malrotation


id: cord-017248-a37t31u1
type: DISEASE
entity:
  cerebral arteries aortic insufficiency calcific aortic stenosis coarctation of the aorta infective endocarditis Shone s syndrome Turner s syndrome


# url

id: cord-340805-qbvgnr4r
domain: www.yahoo.com
url:
  http://www.yahoo.com/now/reopeningstates-will-cause-233000-more-people-to-die-from-coronavirusaccording-to-wharton-model-120049573.html


id: cord-284945-837qlk8y
domain: www.wcvb.com
url:
  http://www.wcvb.com/article/massachusetts-coronavirus-reporting-delay-due-to-quest-lab-itglitch/32288903#


# bib

id: cord-000757-bz66g9a0
title: Identification of pneumonia and influenza deaths using the death certificate pipeline
author: Davis, Kailah
date: 2012-05-08
txt: ./txt/cord-000757-bz66g9a0.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-000757-bz66g9a0.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3444937/
doi: 10.1186/1472-6947-12-37
summary:
  Therefore, the purpose of this study was to demonstrate the feasibility of using a pipeline, composed of a detection rule and a natural language processor, for the real time encoding of death certificates using the identification of pneumonia and influenza cases as an example and demonstrating that its accuracy is comparable to existing methods. Other research groups [18, 19] have demonstrated the feasibility of using mortality data for real time surveillance but all used "free text" search for the string "pneumonia", "flu" or "influenza." As noted earlier, although this method can provide the semi quantitative measurements for disease surveillance purposes, keyword searches can also result in an array of problems that result from complexities of human language such as causal relationships and synonyms [20] . Although, the focus of this study was to use NLP techniques to process death certificates, the description of this system reported in the literature did not show how well coded data from an NLP tool along with predefined rules can detect countable cases for a specific disease or condition.

abstract:
  BACKGROUND: Death records are a rich source of data, which can be used to assist with public surveillance and/or decision support. However, to use this type of data for such purposes it has to be transformed into a coded format to make it computable. Because the cause of death in the certificates is reported as free text, encoding the data is currently the single largest barrier of using death certificates for surveillance. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to demonstrate the feasibility of using a pipeline, composed of a detection rule and a natural language processor, for the real time encoding of death certificates using the identification of pneumonia and influenza cases as an example and demonstrating that its accuracy is comparable to existing methods. RESULTS: A Death Certificates Pipeline (DCP) was developed to automatically code death certificates and identify pneumonia and influenza cases. The pipeline used MetaMap to code death certificates from the Utah Department of Health for the year 2008. The output of MetaMap was then accessed by detection rules which flagged pneumonia and influenza cases based on the Centers of Disease and Control and Prevention (CDC) case definition. The output from the DCP was compared with the current method used by the CDC and with a keyword search. Recall, precision, positive predictive value and F-measure with respect to the CDC method were calculated for the two other methods considered here. The two different techniques compared here with the CDC method showed the following recall/ precision results: DCP: 0.998/0.98 and keyword searching: 0.96/0.96. The F-measure were 0.99 and 0.96 respectively (DCP and keyword searching). Both the keyword and the DCP can run in interactive form with modest computer resources, but DCP showed superior performance. CONCLUSION: The pipeline proposed here for coding death certificates and the detection of cases is feasible and can be extended to other conditions. This method provides an alternative that allows for coding free-text death certificates in real time that may increase its utilization not only in the public health domain but also for biomedical researchers and developers. TRIAL REGISTRATION: This study did not involved any clinical trials.


id: cord-006664-ykfvbypo
title: The role of apoptotic cell death in cardiovascular disease
author: McLaughlin, R.
date: 2001
txt: ./txt/cord-006664-ykfvbypo.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-006664-ykfvbypo.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7102203/
doi: 10.1007/bf03168827
summary:
  RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS: Apoptotic cell death is a key element in the pathogenesis and progression of ischaemia-reperfusion (IR) injury, cardiac failure, myocardial infarction, atherosclerosis, endothelial dysfunction and the clinical syndromes which these situations produce. Experimental and autopsy studies have confirmed that cardiomyocytes undergo cell death by apoptosis as a component of hypoxia,43 IR,14 heart failure 15, 16, 44, 117, 119 and myocardial infarction.l$ Following on from this work, the traditional viewpoint of heart failure as a purely haemodynamic continuum has been modified by an increasing awareness of the fact that the interaction of cytokines, neurohormones and apoptotic mediators play a significant role in the evolution and progression of this disease process."° As the myocardium has no regenerative capacity, prevention of apoptosis-induced cardiomyocyte loss has potentially significant clinical implications.

abstract:
  BACKGROUND: Programmed cell death, or apoptesis, is a distinct, managed form of cell death. It is fundamentally different from necrosis. It is a genetically controlled, energy-dependent method of cellular deletion without inflammation. In the cardiovascular system, apoptosis occurs as a primary and secondary event in disease pathogenesis. This review addresses our current understanding of the initiation, propagation and significance of apoptosis in the cardiovascular system, as well as assessing therapeutic potentials arising therefrom. METHODS: A Medline search was performed and relevant publications reviewed. Further articles were obtained from the references of these publications. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS: Apoptotic cell death is a key element in the pathogenesis and progression of ischaemia-reperfusion (IR) injury, cardiac failure, myocardial infarction, atherosclerosis, endothelial dysfunction and the clinical syndromes which these situations produce. Our increased understanding of the role of apoptosis in the pathogenesis of cardiovascular disease offers potential to develop new therapeutic strategies.


id: cord-015651-yhi83hgq
author: Kovács, Katalin
date: 2014-03-25
txt: ./txt/cord-015651-yhi83hgq.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-015651-yhi83hgq.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7114985/
doi: 10.1007/978-3-319-03029-6_4
summary:
  One of main conclusions has been that they have not so far undergone the healthier life style changes that have occurred in Western Europe, and this has resulted in a "reversed epidemiological transition", in which an elevated burden of cardiovascular diseases dominates the pattern of mortality (Vallin and Meslé 2004) . In this paper I shall review recent developments in epidemiological transition theory, and test the applicability of some of these theories to the evolution of cause-and education-specific mortality inequalities in Hungary between 1971 and 2008. Omran, starting from his very first publication, continuously mentioned social disparities in mortality as well as the driving forces listed above but he did not provide a theoretical framework for the application of these in connection with particular mortality or disease patterns specific for single countries or population sub-groups.

title:
  Social Disparities in the Evolution of an Epidemiological Profile: Transition Processes in Mortality Between 1971 and 2008 in an Industrialized Middle Income Country: The Case of Hungary

abstract:
  The present paper seeks to understand the transformation of mortality patterns in Hungary, by which mortality inequalities by education began to appear in the early 1980s, continued to grow in the following 25 years, and now seem to be stabilising. The first part of this paper overviews the theoretical innovations of the last decades regarding the interpretation of cause-specific mortality dynamics, often referred to as epidemiological transition theories, and their relevance for the analysis of mortality inequalities. The paper then analyses the cause-specific trends of mortality for two educational classes between 1971 and 2008. The trends were corrected for changes in the coding system and divided into linear (stagnating, increasing or decreasing) periods. Causes of death were grouped according to the relationship between the sequences of these periods for the two educational classes. The 57 causes of death were finally clustered into six groups. One group, which is dominated by nutrition-related and cardiovascular diseases, is largely responsible for the onset of mortality inequalities in 1980. The results imply that the quality of nutrition has diverged for the educational classes since 1980, and this fact has left its footprint on the pattern of mortality. The history of food production and availability seems to be in line with nutrition-related mortality, and it is argued that nutrition transition theory provides a very plausible explanatory framework for the growth of mortality inequalities.


id: cord-016536-8wfyaxcb
title: Physical, Social and Cultural, and Global Influences
author: Ubokudom, Sunday E.
date: 2012-02-20
txt: ./txt/cord-016536-8wfyaxcb.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-016536-8wfyaxcb.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7120848/
doi: 10.1007/978-1-4614-3169-5_6
summary:
  The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) estimate that only about 10% of premature deaths in the United States can be attributed to inadequate access to medical care, while the remaining 90% can be accounted for by individual lifestyle and behaviors (50%), genetic profi les (20%), and social and environmental conditions (20%) (CDC 1979 ) . In summation, international trade and fi nance, infectious disease epidemics, global warming and climate change, population mobility, and natural disasters and terrorism signifi cantly affect the United States health care delivery and policymaking systems. Research demonstrates that most of the deaths in the country are attributable to a small number of largely controllable behaviors and exposures, or due to factors that fall under the preventive, social, economic, environmental, and lifestyle and behavioral determinants of health. But even though most of the deaths in the country are the result of social, cultural, economic, environmental, and global factors, medical care is also an important determinant of health that cannot be ignored.

abstract:
  In Chap. 5, we examined the technological environment of the health care policy-making system. Specifically, we examined the classification, evolution, and diffusion of medical technology; the effects of medical technology on medical training and the practice of medicine; effects on medical costs, quality of care, and quality of life; effects on access to care; the ethical concerns raised by medical technology; and the practice of technology assessment. We concluded the chapter by observing that the growth of technology, as well as other human endeavors, affects other important aspects of our lives, most notably, the air we breathe, the food we eat, the generation of radioactive by-products and toxic chemicals, the manufacture of illicit drugs, and the generation of natural and man-made hazards. In other words, in addition to their effects on the health care system, technology and other human activities affect many other aspects of our lives that are associated with health.


id: cord-016557-f2mzwhrt
title: Agrochemical Poisoning
author: Aggrawal, Anil
date: 2006
txt: ./txt/cord-016557-f2mzwhrt.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-016557-f2mzwhrt.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7120889/
doi: 10.1007/978-1-59259-921-9_10
summary:
  Out of the 18 deaths caused by pesticides reported by the 2002 AAPCC annual report (15) , two were the result of paraquat poisoning. Teare (46) reported a case of paraquat poisoning (a 44-year-old man dying of suicidal ingestion of paraquat after 17 days of illness), with the left lung weighing 1980 g and the right lung weighing 1920 g. Metaldehyde is a popular molluscicide that can cause fatal poisoning; the 2002 AAPCC annual report (15) mentions as many as 199 cases of exposure to this agent. According to Harry (4) , accidental pesticide intoxications are mainly caused by ingestions of diluted fertilizers, low-concentration antivitamin K rodenticides, ant-killing products, or granules of molluscicides containing 5% metaldehyde, whereas voluntary intoxications are mostly by chloralose, strychnine, organophosphorus or organochlorine insecticides, concentrated antivitamin K products, and herbicides, such as paraquat, chlorophenoxy compounds, glyphosate, and chlorates.

abstract:
  A general increase in the use of chemicals in agriculture has brought about a concomitant increase in the incidence of agrochemical poisoning. Organophosphates are the most common agrochemical poisons followed closely by herbicides. Many agricultural poisons, such as parathion and paraquat are now mixed with a coloring agent such as indigocarmine to prevent their use criminally. In addition, paraquat is fortified with a “stenching” agent. Organo-chlorines have an entirely different mechanism of action. Whereas organophosphates have an anticholinesterase activity, organochlorines act on nerve cells interfering with the transmission of impulses through them. A kerosene-like smell also emanates from death due to organochlorines. The diagnosis lies in the chemical identification of organochlorines in the stomach contents or viscera. Organochlorines also resist putrefaction and can be detected long after death. Paraquat has been involved in suicidal, accidental, and homicidal poisonings. It is mildly corrosive and ulceration around lips and mouth is common in this poisoning. However, the hallmark of paraquat poisoning, especially when the victim has survived a few days, are the profound changes in lungs. Other agrochemicals such as algicides, aphicides, herbicide safeneres, fertilizers, and so on, are less commonly encountered. Governments in most countries have passed legislations to prevent accidental poisonings with these agents. The US government passed the Federal Insecticide, Fungicide and Rodenticide Act (FIFRA) in 1962 and the Indian government passed The Insecticides Act in 1968. Among other things, these acts require manufacturers to use signal words on the labels of insecticides, so the public is warned of their toxicity and accompanying danger.


id: cord-017248-a37t31u1
title: Alphabetic Listing of Diseases and Conditions
author: nan
date: 2010-05-17
txt: ./txt/cord-017248-a37t31u1.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-017248-a37t31u1.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7121759/
doi: 10.1007/978-1-59745-127-7_17
summary:
  Possible Associated Conditions: Disseminated intravascular coagulation;* eclampsia;* glucose-6-phosphatase deficiency (G6PD); hemolytic uremic syndrome;* malignant hypertension; lymphoma* and other malignancies; paroxysmal nocturnal hemo-globinuria; sickle cell disease;*thalassemia;* thrombotic thrombocytopenic purpura.* (See also below under "NOTE.") NOTE: Hemolysis also may be caused by conditions such as poisoning with chemicals or drugs, heat injury, snake bite,* or infections or may develop as a transfusion reaction* or be secondary to adenocarcinoma, heart valve prostheses (see below), liver disease (see below), renal disease, or congenital erythropoietic porphyria. Unusual under-lying or associated conditions include chronic aortic stenosis or regurgitation; coronary artery anomalies; coronary artery dissection; coronary embolism; coronary ostial stenosis (due to calcification of aortic sinotubular junction or, rarely, to syphilitic aortitis); coronary vasculitis (for instance, in polyarteritis nodosa* or acute hypersensitivity arteritis); hyperthyroidism,* gastrointestinal hemorrhage; * hypothyroidism, * idiopathic arterial calcification of infancy; intramural coronary amyloidosis; pheochromocytoma, polycythemia vera; * pseudoxanthoma elasticum,* radiationinduced coronary stenosis; severe pulmonary hypertension (with right ventricular ischemia); sickle cell disease;* and others.

abstract:
  Part II begins with a list of special histologic stains, their for use and their corresponding references. At the end of this list is a procedure for removal of formalin precipitate from tissue sections.


id: cord-018486-lamfknpt
title: Sports-Related Injuries and Deaths
author: Cina, Stephen J.
date: 2014-02-10
txt: ./txt/cord-018486-lamfknpt.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-018486-lamfknpt.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7123370/
doi: 10.1007/978-1-61779-403-2_29
summary:
  Much of this chapter will focus on natural disease processes and pathologic conditions that can present as sudden death while a child or adolescent is involved in physical activity. In many cases, sudden death may be the result of physical stress superimposed upon a natural disease process or pathologic condition, often involving the heart. Anabolic steroid use can result in peliosis of the liver, psychiatric instability, cardiomyopathy, and death Fig. 26 .1 Fat and bone marrow elements may embolize from fracture sites to the lungs. Cardiac disease is the leading cause of sudden death in athletes engaged in sports and strenuous activities. It may be focal, and multiple heart sections should be examined if there is no apparent cause of death in an athlete following autopsy (Hematoxylin and Eosin, H&E Â 100) be distinguished from hypertrophic cardiomyopathy, discussed above.

abstract:
  Physical activity in children and adolescents should be strongly encouraged. While there is a very low risk of death associated with participation in athletics within this age group, the epidemic of childhood obesity and sedentary lifestyle must be combated to ensure the long-term health and quality of life of today’s youth. Sports-related deaths due to trauma are usually readily identified; others require careful examination, adjunctive testing, and/or the expertise of consultants. A thorough investigation of circumstances surrounding the death, review of the medical records, and autopsy is mandated in these cases.


id: cord-018585-hrl5ywth
title: Other Pediatric Accidental Deaths
author: Sens, Mary Ann
date: 2014-02-10
txt: ./txt/cord-018585-hrl5ywth.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-018585-hrl5ywth.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7123499/
doi: 10.1007/978-1-61779-403-2_30
summary:
  Topics covered include deaths associated with motorized and nonmotorized vehicles including pedestrian, occupant, and operator fatalities; farming and ranching deaths; drowning, boating, and diving deaths; fires and burns, including electrical deaths; animal-related deaths; falls; and airway-associated deaths. Each year in the United States (USA), about 1,400 children under the age of 14 years are fatally injured while passengers in motor vehicles, and another 200,000 sustain injuries, many of which significantly impair the child''s quality of life (Department of Transportation (US), National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) 2009). Pedestrian accidental deaths are more common in males and in children from minority groups, particularly in lower socioeconomic areas (American Academy of Pediatrics Committee Injury, Violence, and Poison Prevention 2009). Infants'' and young children''s skin is more susceptible to thermal and scalding injury (Diller 2006) , and burns can occur within 3 seconds with water temperatures 140 F (60 C) or higher (Feldman et al.

abstract:
  Injury, both intentional and accidental, is the most common cause of death in children throughout the world. Many injury patterns that are seen in children are similar to those in adult populations; however, others differ, reflecting the age, stature, and development of children. This chapter focuses on differences in injury patterns of children across the spectrum of childhood development and growth, including injuries and fatalities that primarily occur in infancy and early childhood. Risk factors for injury and death are identified within the context of childhood development. Topics covered include deaths associated with motorized and nonmotorized vehicles including pedestrian, occupant, and operator fatalities; farming and ranching deaths; drowning, boating, and diving deaths; fires and burns, including electrical deaths; animal-related deaths; falls; and airway-associated deaths. There are significant disparities in childhood injury and death among racial, ethnic, geographic, and socioeconomic groups. A brief consideration of these differences is provided to assist in forensic case examination.


id: cord-018752-7jmnwpq6
title: Pandemic Influenza Planning for the Mental Health Security of Survivors of Mass Deaths
author: Medina, Marie-Jo
date: 2016-02-12
txt: ./txt/cord-018752-7jmnwpq6.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-018752-7jmnwpq6.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7123715/
doi: 10.1007/978-3-319-27914-5_5
summary:
  Mass fatality management preparedness planning is paramount in any influenza pandemic preparedness plan if business continuity is to be expediently achieved, and survivor grief and psychological trauma can be mitigated through the honourable and respectful handling of the remains of the dead. This chapter aims to rectify the oversight in pandemic preparedness plans by presenting a compendium of guidelines and recommendations by international health organisations; pandemic fatality experts; and experienced mass death management professionals. This chapter aims to rectify the oversight in pandemic preparedness plans by presenting a compendium of guidelines and recommendations by international health organisations; pandemic fatality experts; and experienced mass death management professionals. Mass fatality is defined as an event where the number of the dead exceeds available local capacities for appropriate management of human remains (Morgan 2006; Ralph 2015) .

abstract:
  Influenza A pandemics have been documented to occur at 10- to 50-year intervals—an average of three events per century, dating back from the 16th century. Each recorded pandemic has resulted in an increase in annual mortality rates in the infected population, with mass deaths in one pandemic wave equalling fatalities sustained over six months of an epidemic season. This chapter aims to rectify the oversight in pandemic preparedness plans by presenting a compendium of guidelines and recommendations by international health organisations, pandemic fatality experts, and experienced mass death management professionals. Its objective is to have available a mass fatality framework to complement the WHO Pandemic Influenza Preparedness and Response (2009) guideline, from which individual national pandemic preparedness plans are based. It is written in a format that incorporates WHO’s emphasis on finding the ethical balance between human rights and successful plan implementation; the assimilation of national pandemic plans with existing national emergency measures; and the ‘whole group’ system of engaging individuals, families, localities, and business establishments in the process. This chapter is also written such that it can be made applicable to analogous infectious disease outbreaks such as SARS and Ebola, as well as comparable mass fatality events.


id: cord-020757-q4ivezyq
title: Apoptosis and Cell Death: Relevance to Lung
author: Saikumar, Pothana
date: 2010-05-21
txt: ./txt/cord-020757-q4ivezyq.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-020757-q4ivezyq.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7147438/
doi: 10.1007/978-0-387-72430-0_4
summary:
  The extrinsic pathway involves binding of death ligands such as tumor necrosis factor-α (TNF-α), CD95 ligand (Fas ligand), and TNF-related apoptosis-inducing ligand (TRAIL) to their cognate cell surface receptors TNFR1, CD95/Fas, TRAIL-R1, TRAIL-R2, and the DR series of receptors, 29 resulting in the activation of initiator caspase-8 (also known as FADD-homologous ICE/CED-3-like protease or FLICE) and subsequent activation of effector caspase-3 ( Figure 4 .2). In cytotoxic T lymphocyte-induced death, granzyme B, which enters the cell through membrane channels formed by the protein perforin, activates caspases by cleaving them directly or indirectly. Intracellular Pathways: Lack of survival stimuli (withdrawal of growth factor, hypoxia, genotoxic substances, etc.) is thought to generate apoptotic signals through ill-defi ned mechanisms, which lead to translocation of proapoptotic proteins such as Bax to the outer mitochondrial membrane. For example, agents that damage DNA, such as ionizing radiation and certain xenobiotics, lead to activation of p53-mediated mechanisms that commit cells to apoptosis, at least in part through transcriptional upregulation of proapoptotic proteins.

abstract:
  In multicellular organisms, cell death plays an important role in development, morphogenesis, control of cell numbers, and removal of infected, mutated, or damaged cells. The term apoptosis was first coined in 1972 by Kerr et al.1 to describe the morphologic features of a type of cell death that is distinct from necrosis and is today considered to represent programmed cell death. In fact, the evidence that a genetic program existed for physiologic cell death came from the developmental studies of the nematode Caenorhabditis elegans.2 As time has progressed, however, apoptotic cell death has been shown to occur in many cell types under a variety of physiologic and pathologic conditions. Cells dying by apoptosis exhibit several characteristic morphologic features that include cell shrinkage, nuclear condensation, membrane blebbing, nuclear and cellular fragmentation into membrane-bound apoptotic bodies, and eventual phagocytosis of the fragmented cell (Figure 4.1).


id: cord-021399-gs3i7wbe
title: SUDDEN NATURAL DEATH | Infectious Diseases
author: Dada, M.A.
date: 2005-11-18
txt: ./txt/cord-021399-gs3i7wbe.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-021399-gs3i7wbe.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7149575/
doi: 10.1016/b0-12-369399-3/00357-8
abstract: nan
summary:
  Despite the advances in the diagnosis and treatment of infectious diseases, a substantial number of sudden and unexpected deaths are caused by infections. Forensic pathologists should be aware of the importance of infectious causes of sudden death in the present era of bioterrorism and emergent and reemergent diseases. Sudden death due to infectious disease may be classified by organ system involvement (e.g., cardiac -myocarditis; nervous system -meningitis and encephalitis) or according to the etiological agent (e.g., viral, chlamydial, bacterial, fungal, protozoal, or helminthic) . The common infectious causes of sudden death by organ system are listed in Table 1 . Viral infections causing sudden death usually involve the cardiac, respiratory, or the central nervous system. Bacterial infections of the respiratory system Sudden death from acute epiglottitis occurs from respiratory obstruction caused by swelling of the epiglottic folds, uvula, and vocal cords.


id: cord-023355-yi2bh0js
title: Apoptosis: A review of pro‐apoptotic and anti‐apoptotic pathways and dysregulation in disease
author: O''Brien, Mauria A.
date: 2008-12-18
txt: ./txt/cord-023355-yi2bh0js.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-023355-yi2bh0js.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7169302/
doi: 10.1111/j.1476-4431.2008.00363.x
summary:
  30 Initiation of this pathway eventually results in the release of pro-apoptotic proteins from the mitochondria that will activate caspase enzymes and trigger apoptosis. [49] [50] [51] [52] The success of the pathway in inducing apoptosis depends on the balance of activity between pro-apoptotic and anti-apoptotic members of the B-cell lymphoma-2 (Bcl-2) superfamily of proteins (Table 1) . 25, 69 In addition, the mitochondrial pathway pro-apoptotic Bcl-2 family protein, Bak, has been implicated in causing ER depletion of calcium, which can induce caspase-12 activation 70 (Table 1) . Mitochondrial factors: Increased mitochondrial outer membrane permeability can result in the release of mitochondrial pro-death substances in addition to cytochrome c, such as apoptosis inducing factor, 67 Smac/ DIABLO 80-82 (Second Mitochondrial-derived Activator of Caspases/Direct Inhibitor of Apoptosis-Binding protein with LOw pI), endonuclease G, HtrA2/Omi, and several procaspases 83 (eg, procaspase-2, -3, and -9).

abstract:
  Objective – To review the human and veterinary literature on the biology of apoptosis in health and disease. Data Sources – Data were examined from the human and veterinary literature identified through Pubmed and references listed in appropriate articles pertaining to apoptosis. Human Data Synthesis – The role of apoptosis in health and disease is a rapidly growing area of research in human medicine. Apoptosis has been identified as a component of human autoimmune diseases, Alzheimer's disease, cancer, and sepsis. Veterinary Data Synthesis – Research data available from the veterinary literature pertaining to apoptosis and its role in diseases of small animal species is still in its infancy. The majority of veterinary studies focus on oncologic therapy. Most of the basic science and human clinical research studies use human blood and tissue samples and murine models. The results from these studies may be applicable to small animal species. Conclusions – Apoptosis is the complex physiologic process of programmed cell death. The pathophysiology of apoptosis and disease is only now being closely evaluated in human medicine. Knowledge of the physiologic mechanisms by which tissues regulate their size and composition is leading researchers to investigate the role of apoptosis in human diseases such as cancer, autoimmune disease and sepsis. Because it is a multifaceted process, apoptosis is difficult to target or manipulate therapeutically. Future studies may reveal methods to regulate or manipulate apoptosis and improve patient outcome.


id: cord-027578-yapmcvps
title: Death anxiety in the time of COVID-19: theoretical explanations and clinical implications
author: Menzies, Rachel E.
date: 2020-06-11
txt: ./txt/cord-027578-yapmcvps.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-027578-yapmcvps.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7308596/
doi: 10.1017/s1754470x20000215
summary:
  Fear of death has recently been shown to predict not only anxiety related to COVID-19, but also to play a causal role in various mental health conditions. The findings revealed a significant positive correlation between death anxiety and anxious beliefs and behaviours related to COVID-19 (e.g. estimated likelihood of contracting the virus, estimated likelihood of wearing a mask in public, etc.), in addition to self-reported health anxiety, and overall psychological distress. Results from numerous studies appear to suggest that fear of death is indeed a transdiagnostic construct driving a number of mental health conditions, although further research using treatment-seeking and clinical samples is clearly warranted. In addition to predicting anxiety related to COVID-19 (Newton-John et al., 2020) , fear of death has also been shown to play a causal role across a number of mental health conditions (Menzies and Dar-Nimrod, 2017; Strachan et al., 2007) .

abstract:
  The recent COVID-19 pandemic has triggered a surge in anxiety across the globe. Much of the public’s behavioural and emotional response to the virus can be understood through the framework of terror management theory, which proposes that fear of death drives much of human behaviour. In the context of the current pandemic, death anxiety, a recently proposed transdiagnostic construct, appears especially relevant. Fear of death has recently been shown to predict not only anxiety related to COVID-19, but also to play a causal role in various mental health conditions. Given this, it is argued that treatment programmes in mental health may need to broaden their focus to directly target the dread of death. Notably, cognitive behavioural therapy (CBT) has been shown to produce significant reductions in death anxiety. As such, it is possible that complementing current treatments with specific CBT techniques addressing fears of death may ensure enhanced long-term symptom reduction. Further research is essential in order to examine whether treating death anxiety will indeed improve long-term outcomes, and prevent the emergence of future disorders in vulnerable populations. KEY LEARNING AIMS: (1).. To understand terror management theory and its theoretical explanation of death anxiety in the context of COVID-19. (2).. To understand the transdiagnostic role of death anxiety in mental health disorders. (3).. To understand current treatment approaches for directly targeting death anxiety, and the importance of doing so to improve long-term treatment outcomes.


id: cord-028337-md9om47x
author: Ketcham, Scott W.
date: 2020-07-03
txt: ./txt/cord-028337-md9om47x.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-028337-md9om47x.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7332537/
doi: 10.1186/s13054-020-03108-w
summary:
  Patients with ARDS more often had pulmonary dysfunction as the primary cause of death (28% vs 19%; p = 0.04) and were also more likely to die while requiring significant respiratory support (82% vs 64%; p < 0.01). Specifically, two critical-care trained physicians reviewed each AHRF hospitalization to determine whether patients met Berlin Criteria [15, 16] for ARDS: (1) new or worsening respiratory symptoms began within 1 week of a known clinical insult, (2) PaO 2 /FIO 2 ≤ 300 while receiving a positive end-expiratory pressure ≥ 5 cm H 2 O, (3) bilateral opacities on chest x-ray, (4) unlikely to be cardiogenic pulmonary edema, and (5) no other explanation for these findings. In this contemporary cohort study of 385 patients who died after AHRF, the most common primary causes of death were sepsis and pulmonary dysfunction.

title:
  Causes and characteristics of death in patients with acute hypoxemic respiratory failure and acute respiratory distress syndrome: a retrospective cohort study

abstract:
  BACKGROUND: Acute hypoxemic respiratory failure (AHRF) and acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) are associated with high in-hospital mortality. However, in cohorts of ARDS patients from the 1990s, patients more commonly died from sepsis or multi-organ failure rather than refractory hypoxemia. Given increased attention to lung-protective ventilation and sepsis treatment in the past 25 years, we hypothesized that causes of death may be different among contemporary cohorts. These differences may provide clinicians with insight into targets for future therapeutic interventions. METHODS: We identified adult patients hospitalized at a single tertiary care center (2016–2017) with AHRF, defined as PaO(2)/FiO(2) ≤ 300 while receiving invasive mechanical ventilation for > 12 h, who died during hospitalization. ARDS was adjudicated by multiple physicians using the Berlin definition. Separate abstractors blinded to ARDS status collected data on organ dysfunction and withdrawal of life support using a standardized tool. The primary cause of death was defined as the organ system that most directly contributed to death or withdrawal of life support. RESULTS: We identified 385 decedents with AHRF, of whom 127 (33%) had ARDS. The most common primary causes of death were sepsis (26%), pulmonary dysfunction (22%), and neurologic dysfunction (19%). Multi-organ failure was present in 70% at time of death, most commonly due to sepsis (50% of all patients), and 70% were on significant respiratory support at the time of death. Only 2% of patients had insupportable oxygenation or ventilation. Eighty-five percent died following withdrawal of life support. Patients with ARDS more often had pulmonary dysfunction as the primary cause of death (28% vs 19%; p = 0.04) and were also more likely to die while requiring significant respiratory support (82% vs 64%; p < 0.01). CONCLUSIONS: In this contemporary cohort of patients with AHRF, the most common primary causes of death were sepsis and pulmonary dysfunction, but few patients had insupportable oxygenation or ventilation. The vast majority of deaths occurred after withdrawal of life support. ARDS patients were more likely to have pulmonary dysfunction as the primary cause of death and die while requiring significant respiratory support compared to patients without ARDS.


id: cord-031409-7cs1z6x6
title: The maternal death drive: Greta Thunberg and the question of the future
author: Baraitser, Lisa
date: 2020-09-04
txt: ./txt/cord-031409-7cs1z6x6.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-031409-7cs1z6x6.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7472396/
doi: 10.1057/s41282-020-00197-y
summary:
  Drawing on earlier work, this paper develops the notion of a ''maternal death drive'' that supplements Freud''s death drive by accounting for repetition that retains a relation to the developmental time of ''life'' but remains ''otherwise'' to a life drive. The temporal form of this ''life in death'' is that of ''dynamic chronicity'', analogous to late modern narratives that describe the present as ''thin'' and the time of human futurity as running out. The maternal (death drive) alerts us to a new figure of a child whose task is to carry expectations and anxieties about the future and bind them into a reproductive present. In many ways, the death drive is a temporal concept, holding together the paradoxical time in which repetition contains within it a backwards pull towards the no-time of the living organism, even as the shape of this relation describes ''a life''.

abstract:
  The centenary of Freud’s Beyond the Pleasure Principle (Freud, 1920a/1955) falls in 2020, a year dominated globally by the Covid-19 pandemic. One of the effects of the pandemic has been to reveal the increasingly fragile interconnectedness of human and non-human life, as well as the ongoing effects of social inequalities, particularly racism, on the valuing of life and its flourishing. Drawing on earlier work, this paper develops the notion of a ‘maternal death drive’ that supplements Freud’s death drive by accounting for repetition that retains a relation to the developmental time of ‘life’ but remains ‘otherwise’ to a life drive. The temporal form of this ‘life in death’ is that of ‘dynamic chronicity’, analogous to late modern narratives that describe the present as ‘thin’ and the time of human futurity as running out. I argue that the urgency to act on the present in the name of the future is simultaneously ‘suspended’ by the repetitions of late capitalism, leading to a temporal hiatus that must be embraced rather than simply lamented. The maternal (death drive) alerts us to a new figure of a child whose task is to carry expectations and anxieties about the future and bind them into a reproductive present. Rather than seeing the child as a figure of normativity, I turn to Greta Thunberg to signal a way to go on in suspended ‘grey’ time.


id: cord-032227-xxa0hlpu
title: Terror Management Theory and the COVID-19 Pandemic
author: Pyszczynski, Tom
date: 2020-09-17
txt: ./txt/cord-032227-xxa0hlpu.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-032227-xxa0hlpu.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7498956/
doi: 10.1177/0022167820959488
summary:
  Although there are many disturbing aspects of the COVID-19 pandemic, from the perspective of terror management theory (TMT; Greenberg et al., 1986; Solomon et al., 2015) , the enormous death toll and highly contagious nature of the virus play especially important roles in spawning the diverse forms of turmoil that have resulted from this crisis. TMT posits that people manage the potential for anxiety inherent in awareness of the inevitability of death by maintaining faith in their cultural worldviews, self-esteem, and close relationships; these anxiety-buffering systems mitigate existential terror by imparting a sense that one is a person of value living in a meaningful world (for a more thorough presentation of these ideas, see Solomon et al., 2015) .

abstract:
  Terror management theory is focused on the role that awareness of death plays in diverse aspects of life. Here, we discuss the theory’s implications for understanding the widely varying ways in which people have responded to the COVID-19 pandemic. We argue that regardless of whether one consciously believes that the virus is a major threat to life or only a minor inconvenience, fear of death plays an important role in driving one’s attitudes and behavior related to the virus. We focus on the terror management theory distinction between proximal defenses, which are activated when thoughts of death are in current focal attention and are logically related to the threat at hand, and distal defenses, which are activated when thoughts of death are on the fringes of one’s consciousness and entail the pursuit of meaning, personal value, and close relationships. We use this framework to discuss the many ways in which COVID-19 undermines psychological equanimity, the diverse ways people have responded to this threat, and the role of ineffective terror management in psychological distress and disorder that may emerge in response to the virus.


id: cord-147282-6a1dfzs8
author: Bermudi, Patricia Marques Moralejo
date: 2020-08-05
txt: ./txt/cord-147282-6a1dfzs8.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-147282-6a1dfzs8.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://arxiv.org/pdf/2008.02322v1.pdf
doi: nan
summary:
  title: Spatiotemporal dynamic of COVID-19 mortality in the city of Sao Paulo, Brazil: shifting the high risk from the best to the worst socio-economic conditions Thus, this study aims to unveil the spatiotemporal dynamic of COVID-19 mortality at a fine granular level in the city of São Paulo considering the socio-economic context of the population. In the sequence, we obtained the mortality rates for confirmed, suspected, and total COVID-19 deaths by sex and age for the entire period from EW 11th to 24th using Tabnet and e-SIC databases. Table 1 shows the numbers and mortality rates of confirmed, suspected, and total COVID-19 deaths obtained from e-SIC and Tabnet databases from EW 11 th to 24 th by sex and age. The spatial distribution of suspected and confirmed deaths by COVID-19 in the city of Sao Paulo shows inequalities, with spatial dependence and positive correlation associated with socio-economic factors of the areas, remarkably similar to the results of Maciel et al.

title:
  Spatiotemporal dynamic of COVID-19 mortality in the city of Sao Paulo, Brazil: shifting the high risk from the best to the worst socio-economic conditions

abstract:
  Currently, Brazil has one of the fastest increasing COVID-19 epidemics in the world, that has caused at least 94 thousand confirmed deaths until now. The city of Sao Paulo is particularly vulnerable because it is the most populous in the country. Analyzing the spatiotemporal dynamics of COVID-19 is important to help the urgent need to integrate better actions to face the pandemic. Thus, this study aimed to analyze the COVID-19 mortality, from March to July 2020, considering the spatio-time architectures, the socio-economic context of the population, and using a fine granular level, in the most populous city in Brazil. For this, we conducted an ecological study, using secondary public data from the mortality information system. We describe mortality rates for each epidemiological week and the entire period by sex and age. We modelled the deaths using spatiotemporal and spatial architectures and Poisson probability distributions in a latent Gaussian Bayesian model approach. We obtained the relative risks for temporal and spatiotemporal trends and socio-economic conditions. To reduce possible sub notification, we considered the confirmed and suspected deaths. Our findings showed an apparent stabilization of the temporal trend, at the end of the period, but that may change in the future. Mortality rate increased with increasing age and was higher in men. The risk of death was greater in areas with the worst social conditions throughout the study period. However, this was not a uniform pattern over time, since we identified a shift from the high risk in the areas with best socio-economic conditions to the worst ones. Our study contributed by emphasizing the importance of geographic screening in areas with a higher risk of death, and, currently, worse socio-economic contexts, as a crucial aspect to reducing disease mortality and health inequities, through integrated public health actions.


id: cord-163587-zjnr7vwm
title: Nowcasting Covid-19 statistics reported withdelay: a case-study of Sweden
author: Altmejd, Adam
date: 2020-06-11
txt: ./txt/cord-163587-zjnr7vwm.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-163587-zjnr7vwm.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://arxiv.org/pdf/2006.06840v1.pdf
doi: nan
summary:
  In this paper we describe a statistical methodology for nowcasting the epidemic statistics, such as hospitalizations or deaths, and their degrees of uncertainty, based on the daily reported event frequency and the observed distribution pattern of reporting delays. We propose to use the removal method, developed in animal management (Pollock, 1991) , to present an estimate of the actual frequencies at a given day and their uncertainty. To account for this, we allow the estimated proportions of daily reported cases to follow a probability distribution taking into consideration what type of day it is. We propose a Bayesian version of the removal model that assumes an overdispersed binomial distribution for the daily observations of deaths in Sweden in COVID-19. Another limitation is that the model assumes that the number of new reported deaths for a given day cannot be negative, which is not actually true, due to miscount or misclassification of days.

abstract:
  The new corona virus disease -- COVID-2019 -- is rapidly spreading through the world. The availability of unbiased timely statistics of trends in disease events are a key to effective responses. But due to reporting delays, the most recently reported numbers are frequently underestimating of the total number of infections, hospitalizations and deaths creating an illusion of a downward trend. Here we describe a statistical methodology for predicting true daily quantities and their uncertainty, estimated using historical reporting delays. The methodology takes into account the observed distribution pattern of the lag. It is derived from the removal method, a well-established estimation framework in the field of ecology.


id: cord-176131-0vrb3law
title: PECAIQR: A Model for Infectious Disease Applied to the Covid-19 Epidemic
author: Bao, Richard
date: 2020-06-17
txt: ./txt/cord-176131-0vrb3law.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-176131-0vrb3law.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://arxiv.org/pdf/2006.13693v1.pdf
doi: nan
summary:
  We generate longer-time horizon predictions over various 1-month windows in the past, forecast how many medical resources such as ventilators and ICU beds will be needed in counties, and evaluate the efficacy of our model in other countries. To fit the deaths data to the system of differential equations in the PECAIQR model, we performed numerical integration using the scipy odeint package [7] , and traversed the parameter space to find a set of parameters that minimized the least squares error of each fit variable in relation to its observed variables. The methods described in the past two subsections are implemented as options that can be activated with hyper parameters, and collectively they provide several different ways to fit the PECAIQR model and generate the confidence intervals. In sub-figure d) we see that the peak daily deaths value predicted by the model is significantly less than the actual peak that is revealed with more data.

abstract:
  The Covid-19 pandemic has made clear the need to improve modern multivariate time-series forecasting models. Current state of the art predictions of future daily deaths and, especially, hospital resource usage have confidence intervals that are unacceptably wide. Policy makers and hospitals require accurate forecasts to make informed decisions on passing legislation and allocating resources. We used US county-level data on daily deaths and population statistics to forecast future deaths. We extended the SIR epidemiological model to a novel model we call the PECAIQR model. It adds several new variables and parameters to the naive SIR model by taking into account the ramifications of the partial quarantining implemented in the US. We fitted data to the model parameters with numerical integration. Because of the fit degeneracy in parameter space and non-constant nature of the parameters, we developed several methods to optimize our fit, such as training on the data tail and training on specific policy regimes. We use cross-validation to tune our hyper parameters at the county level and generate a CDF for future daily deaths. For predictions made from training data up to May 25th, we consistently obtained an averaged pinball loss score of 0.096 on a 14 day forecast. We finally present examples of possible avenues for utility from our model. We generate longer-time horizon predictions over various 1-month windows in the past, forecast how many medical resources such as ventilators and ICU beds will be needed in counties, and evaluate the efficacy of our model in other countries.


id: cord-180835-sgu7ayvw
title: Data-driven modeling of public risk perception and emotion on Twitter during the Covid-19 pandemic
author: Kolic, Blas
date: 2020-08-03
txt: ./txt/cord-180835-sgu7ayvw.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-180835-sgu7ayvw.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://arxiv.org/pdf/2008.00854v1.pdf
doi: nan
summary:
  By inspecting the correlations between the NLSs and the epidemiological indicators, we find that as the pandemic intensifies -in the sense of an increasing number of cases and deaths reported daily -our emotional response diminishes, as expected from a psychophysical numbing phenomenon. Altogether, this analysis demonstrates that words indicating a subjective emotional/affective experience and words related to death are well-separated in this Twitter data, which is consistent with the notion of psychophysical numbing as an explanation for the trends and correlations observed in Figures 1 and 2 . We also showed that the psychophysical laws of Weber-Fechner and of power law perception in humans accurately model the relationship between the frequency of words related to death and the actual daily number of Covid-19 deaths in each country.

abstract:
  Successful navigation of the Covid-19 pandemic is predicated on public cooperation with safety measures and appropriate perception of risk, in which emotion and attention play important roles. Signatures of public emotion and attention are present in social media data, thus natural language analysis of this text enables near-to-real-time monitoring of indicators of public risk perception. We compare key epidemiological indicators of the progression of the pandemic with indicators of the public perception of the pandemic constructed from approx. 20 million unique Covid-19-related tweets from 12 countries posted between 10th March and 14th June 2020. We find evidence of psychophysical numbing: Twitter users increasingly fixate on mortality, but in a decreasingly emotional and increasingly analytic tone. We find that the national attention on Covid-19 mortality is modelled accurately as a logarithmic or power law function of national daily Covid-19 deaths rates, implying generalisations of the Weber-Fechner and power law models of sensory perception to the collective. Our parameter estimates for these models are consistent with estimates from psychological experiments, and indicate that users in this dataset exhibit differential sensitivity by country to the national Covid-19 death rates. Our work illustrates the potential utility of social media for monitoring public risk perception and guiding public communication during crisis scenarios.


id: cord-223212-5j5r6dd5
title: Estimates of the proportion of SARS-CoV-2 infected individuals in Sweden
author: Hult, Henrik
date: 2020-05-25
txt: ./txt/cord-223212-5j5r6dd5.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-223212-5j5r6dd5.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://arxiv.org/pdf/2005.13519v1.pdf
doi: nan
summary:
  To capture heterogeneity in the population and the effect of interventions to reduce the rate of epidemic spread, the model uses a time-varying contact rate, whose logarithm has a Gaussian process prior. A Poisson point process is used to model the occurrence of deaths due to COVID-19 and the model is calibrated using data of daily death counts in combination with a snapshot of the the proportion of individuals with an active infection, performed in Stockholm in late March. In this paper an SEIR epidemic model with time-varying contact rate will be used to model the evolution of the number of susceptible (S), exposed (E), infected (I), and recovered (R) individuals. The main extensions include the introduction of the Poisson point process to model the occurrence of deaths, the addition of random sampling to test for infection, and an extension to multiple regions.

abstract:
  In this paper a Bayesian SEIR model is studied to estimate the proportion of the population infected with SARS-CoV-2, the virus responsible for COVID-19. To capture heterogeneity in the population and the effect of interventions to reduce the rate of epidemic spread, the model uses a time-varying contact rate, whose logarithm has a Gaussian process prior. A Poisson point process is used to model the occurrence of deaths due to COVID-19 and the model is calibrated using data of daily death counts in combination with a snapshot of the the proportion of individuals with an active infection, performed in Stockholm in late March. The methodology is applied to regions in Sweden. The results show that the estimated proportion of the population who has been infected is around 13.5% in Stockholm, by 2020-05-15, and ranges between 2.5% - 15.6% in the other investigated regions. In Stockholm where the peak of daily death counts is likely behind us, parameter uncertainty does not heavily influence the expected daily number of deaths, nor the expected cumulative number of deaths. It does, however, impact the estimated cumulative number of infected individuals. In the other regions, where random sampling of the number of active infections is not available, parameter sharing is used to improve estimates, but the parameter uncertainty remains substantial.


id: cord-226245-p0cyzjwf
title: Nowcasting fatal COVID-19 infections on a regional level in Germany
author: Schneble, Marc
date: 2020-05-15
txt: ./txt/cord-226245-p0cyzjwf.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-226245-p0cyzjwf.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://arxiv.org/pdf/2005.07452v1.pdf
doi: nan
summary:
  Given that death counts generally provide more reliable information on the spread of the disease compared to infection counts, which inevitably depend on testing strategy and capacity, the proposed model and the presented results allow to obtain reliable insight into the current state of the pandemic in Germany. The data are provided by the Robert-Koch-Institute (www.rki.de) and give the cumulative number of deaths in different gender and age groups for each of the 412 administrative districts in Germany together with the date of registration of the infection. In Figure 2 we combine these different components and map the fitted nowcasted death counts related to Covid-19 for the different districts of Germany, cumulating over the last seven days before the day of analysis (here May 14, 2020). Let Y t,r,g denote the number of daily deaths due to COVID-19 in district/region r and age and gender group g with time point (date of registration) t = 0, .

abstract:
  We analyse the temporal and regional structure in mortality rates related to COVID-19 infections. We relate the fatality date of each deceased patient to the corresponding day of registration of the infection, leading to a nowcasting model which allows us to estimate the number of present-day infections that will, at a later date, prove to be fatal. The numbers are broken down to the district level in Germany. Given that death counts generally provide more reliable information on the spread of the disease compared to infection counts, which inevitably depend on testing strategy and capacity, the proposed model and the presented results allow to obtain reliable insight into the current state of the pandemic in Germany.


id: cord-230345-bu6vi7xz
title: Modelling death rates due to COVID-19: A Bayesian approach
author: Bayes, Cristian
date: 2020-04-06
txt: ./txt/cord-230345-bu6vi7xz.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-230345-bu6vi7xz.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.02386v2.pdf
doi: nan
summary:
  Design: With a priori information obtained from the daily number of deaths due to CODIV-19 in China and data from the Peruvian authorities, we constructed a predictive Bayesian non-linear model for the number of deaths in Peru. To this end, we propose to model the daily number of deaths using a Poisson distribution with a rate parameter that is proportional to a Skew Normal density. Using a Bayesian approach and a prior epidemic China COVID-19 history, we forecast the total number of deaths in Peru for the next seventy days. Since China was the first country to have experienced a drastic drop in infections and deaths, we are proposing to incorporate this data, into our Peruvian death rate predictions, through a prior distribution. The predicted rates and their associated 95% prediction credible intervals were obtained, under a Bayesian approach, by considering a non-informative prior and the Chinese official death reports.

abstract:
  Objective: To estimate the number of deaths in Peru due to COVID-19. Design: With a priori information obtained from the daily number of deaths due to CODIV-19 in China and data from the Peruvian authorities, we constructed a predictive Bayesian non-linear model for the number of deaths in Peru. Exposure: COVID-19. Outcome: Number of deaths. Results: Assuming an intervention level similar to the one implemented in China, the total number of deaths in Peru is expected to be 612 (95%CI: 604.3 - 833.7) persons. Sixty four days after the first reported death, the 99% of expected deaths will be observed. The inflexion point in the number of deaths is estimated to be around day 26 (95%CI: 25.1 - 26.8) after the first reported death. Conclusion: These estimates can help authorities to monitor the epidemic and implement strategies in order to manage the COVID-19 pandemic.


id: cord-249569-78zstcag
author: KIm, T.
date: 2020-07-04
txt: ./txt/cord-249569-78zstcag.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-249569-78zstcag.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://arxiv.org/pdf/2007.02105v2.pdf
doi: nan
summary:
  Motivated by the current Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) pandemic, which is due to the SARS-CoV-2 virus, and the important problem of forecasting daily deaths and cumulative deaths, this paper examines the construction of prediction regions or intervals under the Poisson regression model and for an over-dispersed Poisson regression model. The real-life and practical application for which our methods will be applied is the construction of prediction regions for the daily and cumulative number of deaths due to COVID-19 in the US for a future date given only the daily deaths data until a current date. Summing up our observations from these simulation studies for this no-covariate or intercept only Poisson model, in terms of adapting to the estimation of the unknown rate λ,Γ 1 andΓ 5 possess the best performance among these six prediction regions in terms of achieving the nominal level, but they also tend to be longer than the others.

title:
  Prediction Regions for Poisson and Over-Dispersed Poisson Regression Models with Applications to Forecasting Number of Deaths during the COVID-19 Pandemic

abstract:
  Motivated by the current Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) pandemic, which is due to the SARS-CoV-2 virus, and the important problem of forecasting daily deaths and cumulative deaths, this paper examines the construction of prediction regions or intervals under the Poisson regression model and for an over-dispersed Poisson regression model. For the Poisson regression model, several prediction regions are developed and their performance are compared through simulation studies. The methods are applied to the problem of forecasting daily and cumulative deaths in the United States (US) due to COVID-19. To examine their performance relative to what actually happened, daily deaths data until May 15th were used to forecast cumulative deaths by June 1st. It was observed that there is over-dispersion in the observed data relative to the Poisson regression model. An over-dispersed Poisson regression model is therefore proposed. This new model builds on frailty ideas in Survival Analysis and over-dispersion is quantified through an additional parameter. The Poisson regression model is a hidden model in this over-dispersed Poisson regression model and obtains as a limiting case when the over-dispersion parameter increases to infinity. A prediction region for the cumulative number of US deaths due to COVID-19 by July 16th, given the data until July 2nd, is presented. Finally, the paper discusses limitations of proposed procedures and mentions open research problems, as well as the dangers and pitfalls when forecasting on a long horizon, with focus on this pandemic where events, both foreseen and unforeseen, could have huge impacts on point predictions and prediction regions.


id: cord-252664-h02qy4z0
author: Kontis, V.
date: 2020-05-25
txt: ./txt/cord-252664-h02qy4z0.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-252664-h02qy4z0.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: http://medrxiv.org/cgi/content/short/2020.05.20.20107680v1?rss=1
doi: 10.1101/2020.05.20.20107680
summary:
  title: Ageand sex-specific total mortality impacts of the early weeks of the Covid-19 pandemic in England and Wales: Application of a Bayesian model ensemble to mortality statistics Methods: We developed an ensemble of 16 Bayesian models that probabilistically estimate the weekly number of deaths that would be expected had the Covid-19 pandemic not occurred. We developed and applied methodology to quantify the weekly mortality impacts of the Covid-19 pandemic and associated responses by age group and sex in England and Wales. We developed an ensemble of 16 short-term Bayesian mortality projection models that each make an estimate of weekly death rates that would be expected if the Covid-19 pandemic had not occurred. . https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.05.20.20107680 doi: medRxiv preprint already a >92% probability that there were more deaths in both sexes and all age groups ≥45 years than would occur in the absence of the pandemic; the probability was 100% (i.e., every one of the 16,000 draws were positive) from the subsequent week (Figures 2 and 3) .

title:
  Age- and sex-specific total mortality impacts of the early weeks of the Covid-19 pandemic in England and Wales: Application of a Bayesian model ensemble to mortality statistics

abstract:
  Background: The Covid-19 pandemic affects mortality directly through infection as well as through changes in the social, environmental and healthcare determinants of health. The impacts on mortality are likely to vary, in both magnitude and timing, by age and sex. Our aim was to estimate the total mortality impacts of the pandemic, by sex, age group and week. Methods: We developed an ensemble of 16 Bayesian models that probabilistically estimate the weekly number of deaths that would be expected had the Covid-19 pandemic not occurred. The models account for seasonality of death rates, medium-long-term trends in death rates, the impact of temperature on death rates, association of death rates in each week on those in preceding week(s), and the impact of bank holidays. We used data from January 2010 through mid-February 2020 (i.e., week starting 15th February 2020) to estimate the parameters of each model, which was then used to predict the number of deaths for subsequent weeks as estimates of death rates if the pandemic had not occurred. We subtracted these estimates from the actual reported number of deaths to measure the total mortality impact of the pandemic. Results: In the week that began on 21st March, the same week that a national lockdown was put in place, there was a >92% probability that there were more deaths in men and women aged [≥]45 years than would occur in the absence of the pandemic; the probability was 100% from the subsequent week. Taken over the entire period from mid-February to 8th May 2020, there were an estimated [~] 49,200 (44,700-53,300) or 43% (37-48) more deaths than would be expected had the pandemic not taken place. 22,900 (19,300-26,100) of these deaths were in females (40% (32-48) higher than if there had not been a pandemic), and 26,300 (23,800-28,700) in males (46% (40-52) higher). The largest number of excess deaths occurred among women aged >85 years (12,400; 9,300-15,300), followed by men aged >85 years (9,600; 7,800-11,300) and 75-84 years (9,000; 7,500-10,300). The cause of death assigned to the majority (37,295) of these excess deaths was Covid-19. There was nonetheless a >99.99% probability that there has been an increase in deaths assigned to other causes in those aged [≥]45 years. However, by the 8th of May, the all-cause excess mortality had become virtually equal to deaths assigned to Covid-19, and non-Covid excess deaths had diminished to close to zero, or possibly become negative, in all age-sex groups. Interpretation: The death toll of Covid-19 pandemic, in middle and older ages, is substantially larger than the number of deaths reported as a result of confirmed infection, and was visible in vital statistics when the national lockdown was put in place. When all-cause mortality is considered, the mortality impact of the pandemic on men and women is more similar than when comparing deaths assigned to Covid-19 as underlying cause of death.


id: cord-259557-n46fbzae
title: Coupling between death spikes and birth troughs. Part 1: Evidence
author: Richmond, Peter
date: 2018-09-15
txt: ./txt/cord-259557-n46fbzae.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-259557-n46fbzae.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32288105/
doi: 10.1016/j.physa.2018.04.044
summary:
  In the wake of the influenza pandemic of 1889–1890 Jacques Bertillon, a pioneer of medical statistics, noticed that after the massive death spike there was a dip in birth numbers around 9 months later which was significantly larger than that which could be explained by the population change as a result of excess deaths. In the last section it is shown how the present coupling leads to predictions; it can explain in a unified way effects which so far have been studied separately, as for instance the impact on birth rates of heat waves. In 1892 Jacques Bertillon, a pioneer of medical statistics and one of the designers of the ''''International Classification of Diseases'''', published an analysis of the influenza pandemic of November 1889-February 1990 in which he showed that approximately 9 months after the climax of the epidemic a temporary birth rate trough (of an amplitude of about 20%) was observed in all countries where the pandemic has had a substantial impact, particularly Austria, France, Germany or Italy.

abstract:
  In the wake of the influenza pandemic of 1889–1890 Jacques Bertillon, a pioneer of medical statistics, noticed that after the massive death spike there was a dip in birth numbers around 9 months later which was significantly larger than that which could be explained by the population change as a result of excess deaths. In addition it can be noticed that this dip was followed by a birth rebound a few months later. However having made this observation, Bertillon did not explore it further. Since that time the phenomenon was not revisited in spite of the fact that in the meanwhile there have been several new cases of massive death spikes. The aim here is to analyze these new cases to get a better understanding of this death–birth coupling phenomenon. The largest death spikes occurred in the wake of more recent influenza pandemics in 1918 and 1920, others were triggered by the 1923 earthquakes in Tokyo and the Twin Tower attack on September 11, 2001. We shall see that the first of these events indeed produced an extra dip in births whereas the 9/11 event did not. This disparity highlights the pivotal role of collateral sufferers. In the last section it is shown how the present coupling leads to predictions; it can explain in a unified way effects which so far have been studied separately, as for instance the impact on birth rates of heat waves. Thus, it appears that behind the apparent randomness of birth rate fluctuations there are in fact hidden explanatory factors.


id: cord-261437-x2k9apav
title: Are Vapers More Susceptible to COVID-19 Infection?
author: Li, D.
date: 2020-05-09
txt: ./txt/cord-261437-x2k9apav.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-261437-x2k9apav.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: http://medrxiv.org/cgi/content/short/2020.05.05.20092379v1?rss=1
doi: 10.1101/2020.05.05.20092379
summary:
  Methods Using integrated data in each US state from the 2018 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS), United States Census Bureau and the 1Point3Acres.com website, generalized estimating equation (GEE) models with negative binomial distribution assumption and log link functions were used to examine the association of weighted proportions of vapers with number of COVID-19 infections and deaths in the US. We will examine the association of vaping with COVID-19 infections and deaths, using the integrated state-level weighted proportions of current e-cigarette users (vapers) from the 2018 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) survey data, the population size and land area in 2018 in each state from United States Census Bureau, and the daily number of COVID-19 infected cases and deaths in each state from the 1Point3Acres.com website during the time period from January 21, 2020 to April 25, 2020 in the United States.

abstract:
  Background COVID-19, caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), was declared a global pandemic in March 2020. Electronic cigarette use (vaping) rapidly gained popularity in the US in recent years. Whether electronic cigarette users (vapers) are more susceptible to COVID-19 infection is unknown. Methods Using integrated data in each US state from the 2018 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS), United States Census Bureau and the 1Point3Acres.com website, generalized estimating equation (GEE) models with negative binomial distribution assumption and log link functions were used to examine the association of weighted proportions of vapers with number of COVID-19 infections and deaths in the US. Results The weighted proportion of vapers who used e-cigarettes every day or some days ranged from 2.86% to 6.42% for US states. Statistically significant associations were observed between the weighted proportion of vapers and number of COVID-19 infected cases as well as COVID-19 deaths in the US after adjusting for the weighted proportion of smokers and other significant covariates in the GEE models. With every one percent increase in weighted proportion of vapers in each state, the number of COVID-19 infected cases increase by 0.3139 (95% CI: 0.0554 - 0.5723) and the number of COVID-19 deaths increase by 0.3705 (95% CI: 0.0623 - 0.6786) in log scale in each US state. Conclusions The positive associations between the proportion of vapers and the number of COVID-19 infected cases and deaths in each US state suggest an increased susceptibility of vapers to COVID-19 infections and deaths.


id: cord-262681-2voe4r7f
author: Kim, Moon-Young
date: 2020-08-14
txt: ./txt/cord-262681-2voe4r7f.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-262681-2voe4r7f.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32830471/
doi: 10.3346/jkms.2020.35.e310
summary:
  The autopsy, one of the most important tools of forensic medicine, is also useful to infectious diseases because it identifies the causal relationship between death and infection, reveals medical and epidemiological knowledge, and provides objective evidence for legal disputes. Therefore, a guideline for the standard autopsy for infectious diseases is stated here, which aims to: 1) provide scientific grounds to establish appropriate plans for the prevention and treatment of infectious diseases, 2) contribute to improving national health by controlling the spread of pathogens within the community, and 3) protect human resources engaged in autopsy-related work from the risk of infection. In the case of personnel who participated in the autopsy of a body confirmed to be infected but the standard protocol was followed, there is no possibility of exposure, so only selfmonitoring of the symptoms and the minimizing of face-to-face contacts during the expected incubation period are required.

title:
  Proposal of the Autopsy Guideline for Infectious Diseases: Preparation for the Post-COVID-19 Era (abridged translation)

abstract:
  With the rapidly spreading coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic over the past few months, the world is facing an unprecedented crisis. Innumerable lives have been lost to this novel infectious disease, the nature of which supersedes conventional medical understanding. The COVID-19 pandemic is not just a global health crisis, several aspects of life in the post-COVID-19 era are also being contemplated. Experts in unison are warning that the upcoming changes in all areas of life could potentially be far more drastic than ever experienced in the entire human civilization. The medical community is no exception, and therefore, personnel involved in forensic medicine also need to be adequately prepared for the future. Forensic medicine is a branch of medicine dedicated to one of the most important stages of the human lifecycle and has always been at the forefront in times of unprecedented social change. The autopsy, one of the most important tools of forensic medicine, is also useful to infectious diseases because it identifies the causal relationship between death and infection, reveals medical and epidemiological knowledge, and provides objective evidence for legal disputes. We present new autopsy guidelines in forensic medicine, formulated based on the various infectious diseases that we presently live with and may encounter in the future. In formulation of these guidelines several considerations have been taken into account, namely, the role forensic pathologists should play in the post-COVID-19 era and the necessary preparations as well as the support needed from society to fulfill that role. The present COVID-19 outbreak should be a starting point for formulating improvements in current practices in forensic science, including autopsy biosafety practices and the medicolegal death investigation system.


id: cord-262795-u56u9mjz
author: Wang, Jiwei
date: 2019-07-12
txt: ./txt/cord-262795-u56u9mjz.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-262795-u56u9mjz.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/31355136/
doi: 10.3389/fonc.2019.00600
summary:
  title: Experimental Data-Mining Analyses Reveal New Roles of Low-Intensity Ultrasound in Differentiating Cell Death Regulatome in Cancer and Non-cancer Cells via Potential Modulation of Chromatin Long-Range Interactions Furthermore, our data implies that thermal effects and osmotic shear stress (OSS) associated with LIUS may potentially play a role in inducing the differential gene expression patterns of the cell death regulatome that we observed. Our report allows us to propose a new molecular working model for LIUS therapies for the treatment of cancers and inflammation: First, LIUS differentially upregulates cell death regulators in cancer cells, and downregulates inflammatory pathways in noncancer cells potentially via transcription factors TP53-, and SRF-, mediated pathways; Second, the therapeutic applications of LIUS may depend on the propagation of ultrasound waves through tissues to produce thermal and non-thermal mechanic effects; Third, LIUS may modulate chromatin long-range interactions to differentially regulate cell death gene expressions in cancer cells and non-cancer cells.

title:
  Experimental Data-Mining Analyses Reveal New Roles of Low-Intensity Ultrasound in Differentiating Cell Death Regulatome in Cancer and Non-cancer Cells via Potential Modulation of Chromatin Long-Range Interactions

abstract:
  Background: The mechanisms underlying low intensity ultrasound (LIUS) mediated suppression of inflammation and tumorigenesis remain poorly determined. Methods: We used microarray datasets from NCBI GEO Dataset databases and conducted a comprehensive data mining analyses, where we studied the gene expression of 299 cell death regulators that regulate 13 different cell death types (cell death regulatome) in cells treated with LIUS. Results: We made the following findings: (1) LIUS exerts a profound effect on the expression of cell death regulatome in cancer cells and non-cancer cells. Of note, LIUS has the tendency to downregulate the gene expression of cell death regulators in non-cancer cells. Most of the cell death regulator genes downregulated by LIUS in non-cancer cells are responsible for mediating inflammatory signaling pathways; (2) LIUS activates different cell death transcription factors in cancer and non-cancer cells. Transcription factors TP-53 and SRF- were induced by LIUS exposure in cancer cells and non-cancer cells, respectively; (3) As two well-accepted mechanisms of LIUS, mild hyperthermia and oscillatory shear stress induce changes in the expression of cell death regulators, therefore, may be responsible for inducing LIUS mediated changes in gene expression patterns of cell death regulators in cells; (4) LIUS exposure may change the redox status of the cells. LIUS may induce more of antioxidant effects in non-cancer cells compared to cancer cells; and (5) The genes modulated by LIUS in cancer cells have distinct chromatin long range interaction (CLRI) patterns to that of non-cancer cells. Conclusions: Our analysis suggests novel molecular mechanisms that may be utilized by LIUS to induce tumor suppression and inflammation inhibition. Our findings may lead to development of new treatment protocols for cancers and chronic inflammation.


id: cord-267948-jveh2w09
author: Rossen, Lauren M.
date: 2020-10-23
txt: ./txt/cord-267948-jveh2w09.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-267948-jveh2w09.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://doi.org/10.15585/mmwr.mm6942e2
doi: 10.15585/mmwr.mm6942e2
summary:
  Measures of excess deaths have been used to estimate the impact of public health pandemics or disasters, particularly when there are questions about underascertainment of deaths directly attributable to a given event or cause (1-6).† Excess deaths are defined as the number of persons who have died from all causes, in excess of the expected number of deaths for a given place and time. Expected numbers of deaths were estimated using overdispersed Poisson regression models with spline terms to account for seasonal patterns, using provisional mortality data from CDC''s National Vital Statistics System (NVSS) (7). This report describes trends and demographic patterns in the number of excess deaths occurring in the United States from January 26, 2020, through October 3, 2020, and differences by age and race/ ethnicity using provisional mortality data from the NVSS. Although more excess deaths have occurred among older age groups, relative to past years, adults aged 25-44 years have experienced the largest average percentage increase in the number of deaths from all causes from late January through October 3, 2020.

title:
  Excess Deaths Associated with COVID-19, by Age and Race and Ethnicity — United States, January 26–October 3, 2020

abstract:
  As of October 15, 216,025 deaths from coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) have been reported in the United States*; however, this number might underestimate the total impact of the pandemic on mortality. Measures of excess deaths have been used to estimate the impact of public health pandemics or disasters, particularly when there are questions about underascertainment of deaths directly attributable to a given event or cause (1-6).† Excess deaths are defined as the number of persons who have died from all causes, in excess of the expected number of deaths for a given place and time. This report describes trends and demographic patterns in excess deaths during January 26-October 3, 2020. Expected numbers of deaths were estimated using overdispersed Poisson regression models with spline terms to account for seasonal patterns, using provisional mortality data from CDC's National Vital Statistics System (NVSS) (7). Weekly numbers of deaths by age group and race/ethnicity were assessed to examine the difference between the weekly number of deaths occurring in 2020 and the average number occurring in the same week during 2015-2019 and the percentage change in 2020. Overall, an estimated 299,028 excess deaths have occurred in the United States from late January through October 3, 2020, with two thirds of these attributed to COVID-19. The largest percentage increases were seen among adults aged 25-44 years and among Hispanic or Latino (Hispanic) persons. These results provide information about the degree to which COVID-19 deaths might be underascertained and inform efforts to prevent mortality directly or indirectly associated with the COVID-19 pandemic, such as efforts to minimize disruptions to health care.


id: cord-268816-nth3o6ot
title: Factors affecting COVID-19 infected and death rates inform lockdown-related policymaking
author: Roy, Satyaki
date: 2020-10-23
txt: ./txt/cord-268816-nth3o6ot.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-268816-nth3o6ot.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33095811/
doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0241165
summary:
  The features in the order shown under "Feature name" are: GDP, inter-state distance based on lat-long coordinates, gender, ethnicity, quality of health care facility, number of homeless people, total infected and death, population density, airport passenger traffic, age group, days for infection and death to peak, number of people tested for COVID-19, days elapsed between first reported infection and the imposition of lockdown measures at a given state. Unless otherwise stated, the feature set comprises GDP, gender, ethnicity, health care, homeless, lockdown type, population density, airport activity, and age groups, whereas the output labels consist of infected and death scores on a scale of 0-6. Although proposing a machine learning algorithm that works best on COVID-19 data is not the purpose of this study, it is worth reporting that decision tree classifier (DT) slightly outperforms the other algorithms for both cases of infected and death scores.

abstract:
  BACKGROUND: After claiming nearly five hundred thousand lives globally, the COVID-19 pandemic is showing no signs of slowing down. While the UK, USA, Brazil and parts of Asia are bracing themselves for the second wave—or the extension of the first wave—it is imperative to identify the primary social, economic, environmental, demographic, ethnic, cultural and health factors contributing towards COVID-19 infection and mortality numbers to facilitate mitigation and control measures. METHODS: We process several open-access datasets on US states to create an integrated dataset of potential factors leading to the pandemic spread. We then apply several supervised machine learning approaches to reach a consensus as well as rank the key factors. We carry out regression analysis to pinpoint the key pre-lockdown factors that affect post-lockdown infection and mortality, informing future lockdown-related policy making. FINDINGS: Population density, testing numbers and airport traffic emerge as the most discriminatory factors, followed by higher age groups (above 40 and specifically 60+). Post-lockdown infected and death rates are highly influenced by their pre-lockdown counterparts, followed by population density and airport traffic. While healthcare index seems uncorrelated with mortality rate, principal component analysis on the key features show two groups: states (1) forming early epicenters and (2) experiencing strong second wave or peaking late in rate of infection and death. Finally, a small case study on New York City shows that days-to-peak for infection of neighboring boroughs correlate better with inter-zone mobility than the inter-zone distance. INTERPRETATION: States forming the early hotspots are regions with high airport or road traffic resulting in human interaction. US states with high population density and testing tend to exhibit consistently high infected and death numbers. Mortality rate seems to be driven by individual physiology, preexisting condition, age etc., rather than gender, healthcare facility or ethnic predisposition. Finally, policymaking on the timing of lockdowns should primarily consider the pre-lockdown infected numbers along with population density and airport traffic.


id: cord-270408-4qqyb8sd
author: Pane, Masdalina
date: 2013-08-21
txt: ./txt/cord-270408-4qqyb8sd.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-270408-4qqyb8sd.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0073243
doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0073243
summary:
  title: Causes of Mortality for Indonesian Hajj Pilgrims: Comparison between Routine Death Certificate and Verbal Autopsy Findings This study presents the patterns and causes of death for Indonesian pilgrims, and compares routine death certificates to verbal autopsy findings. In the last two decades, the mortality rate of Indonesian pilgrims, excluding years in which disasters such as stampedes occurred, fluctuated between 200-380 deaths per 100,000 persons during the ten-week Hajj period [5] . The cause of death based on this verbal autopsy method was then recorded in the database and compared to that reported by the hospital or flight doctor death certificate. A greater proportion of deaths were attributed to cardiovascular disease by the flight doctor or hospital death certificate (66%) compared to the cause of death ascertained using the verbal autopsy method (49%, p<0.001). Based on both the death certificates and verbal autopsy categories, cardiovascular disease was the leading cause of Indonesian pilgrim mortality in 2008.

title:
  Causes of Mortality for Indonesian Hajj Pilgrims: Comparison between Routine Death Certificate and Verbal Autopsy Findings

abstract:
  BACKGROUND: Indonesia provides the largest single source of pilgrims for the Hajj (10%). In the last two decades, mortality rates for Indonesian pilgrims ranged between 200–380 deaths per 100,000 pilgrims over the 10-week Hajj period. Reasons for high mortality are not well understood. In 2008, verbal autopsy was introduced to complement routine death certificates to explore cause of death diagnoses. This study presents the patterns and causes of death for Indonesian pilgrims, and compares routine death certificates to verbal autopsy findings. METHODS: Public health surveillance was conducted by Indonesian public health authorities accompanying pilgrims to Saudi Arabia, with daily reporting of hospitalizations and deaths. Surveillance data from 2008 were analyzed for timing, geographic location and site of death. Percentages for each cause of death category from death certificates were compared to that from verbal autopsy. RESULTS: In 2008, 206,831 Indonesian undertook the Hajj. There were 446 deaths, equivalent to 1,968 deaths per 100,000 pilgrim years. Most pilgrims died in Mecca (68%) and Medinah (24%). There was no statistically discernible difference in the total mortality risk for the two pilgrimage routes (Mecca or Medinah first), but the number of deaths peaked earlier for those traveling to Mecca first (p=0.002). Most deaths were due to cardiovascular (66%) and respiratory (28%) diseases. A greater proportion of deaths were attributed to cardiovascular disease by death certificate compared to the verbal autopsy method (p<0.001). Significantly more deaths had ill-defined cause based on verbal autopsy method (p<0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Despite pre-departure health screening and other medical services, Indonesian pilgrim mortality rates were very high. Correct classification of cause of death is critical for the development of risk mitigation strategies. Since verbal autopsy classified causes of death differently to death certificates, further studies are needed to assess the method’s utility in this setting.


id: cord-275071-2uiaruhg
title: Cross-Country Comparisons of Covid-19: Policy, Politics and the Price of Life
author: Balmford, Ben
date: 2020-08-04
txt: ./txt/cord-275071-2uiaruhg.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-275071-2uiaruhg.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32836862/
doi: 10.1007/s10640-020-00466-5
summary:
  Linking decisions over the timing of lockdown and consequent deaths to economic data, we reveal the costs that national governments were implicitly prepared to pay to protect their citizens as reflected in the economic activity foregone to save lives. Accepting that they are a conservative estimate of the total impact of the pandemic, officially attributed Covid-19 deaths are used to investigate the price of life implied by lockdown policies. However, as far as we are aware, ours is the first study to use the SEIR modelling framework to examine the effects of lockdown timing across multiple countries in the same study, and the first to combine these results with financial forecasts to obtain cross-country implied price of life estimates. Table 5 shows that for those countries which under-report Covid-19 deaths, implied price of life is substantially reduced, highlighting once again that earlier lockdowns would have increased social welfare tremendously.

abstract:
  Coronavirus has claimed the lives of over half a million people world-wide and this death toll continues to rise rapidly each day. In the absence of a vaccine, non-clinical preventative measures have been implemented as the principal means of limiting deaths. However, these measures have caused unprecedented disruption to daily lives and economic activity. Given this developing crisis, the potential for a second wave of infections and the near certainty of future pandemics, lessons need to be rapidly gleaned from the available data. We address the challenges of cross-country comparisons by allowing for differences in reporting and variation in underlying socio-economic conditions between countries. Our analyses show that, to date, differences in policy interventions have out-weighed socio-economic variation in explaining the range of death rates observed in the data. Our epidemiological models show that across 8 countries a further week long delay in imposing lockdown would likely have cost more than half a million lives. Furthermore, those countries which acted more promptly saved substantially more lives than those that delayed. Linking decisions over the timing of lockdown and consequent deaths to economic data, we reveal the costs that national governments were implicitly prepared to pay to protect their citizens as reflected in the economic activity foregone to save lives. These ‘price of life’ estimates vary enormously between countries, ranging from as low as around $100,000 (e.g. the UK, US and Italy) to in excess of $1million (e.g. Denmark, Germany, New Zealand and Korea). The lowest estimates are further reduced once we correct for under-reporting of Covid-19 deaths. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (10.1007/s10640-020-00466-5) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.


id: cord-281406-d7g0pbj4
author: Chen, Yifei
date: 2020-04-24
txt: ./txt/cord-281406-d7g0pbj4.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-281406-d7g0pbj4.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://doi.org/10.7189/jogh-10-011004
doi: 10.7189/jogh-10-011004
summary:
  BACKGROUND: Since the emergence of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Hubei province of China by the end of 2019, it has burned its way across the globe, resulting in a still fast-growing death toll that far exceeded those from severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) in less than two months. The death cases were described from four aspects (gender and age characteristics, underlying diseases, the time course of death, symptoms at the incipience of illness and hospital admission). As there is a paucity of evidence on which population is more likely to progress into severe conditions among COVID-19 cases, here, we poured over the first batch of 38 death cases whose information were made public by Health Commission of Hubei province as of 24 January 2020, one day into city lockdown in Wuhan, with the purpose to add a new facet to current evidence.

title:
  Epidemiological analysis of the early 38 fatalities in Hubei, China, of the coronavirus disease 2019

abstract:
  BACKGROUND: Since the emergence of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Hubei province of China by the end of 2019, it has burned its way across the globe, resulting in a still fast-growing death toll that far exceeded those from severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) in less than two months. As there is a paucity of evidence on which population is more likely to progress into severe conditions among cases, we looked into the first cluster of death cases, aiming to add to current evidence and reduce panic among the population. METHODS: We prospectively collected the demographic and clinical data of the first 38 fatalities whose information was made public by the Health Commission of Hubei province and the official Weibo account of China Central Television news center, starting from 9 January through 24 January 2020. The death cases were described from four aspects (gender and age characteristics, underlying diseases, the time course of death, symptoms at the incipience of illness and hospital admission). RESULTS: Among the 38 fatalities, 71.05% were male, and 28.95% were female, with the median age of 70 years (interquartile range (IQR) = 65-81). Persons aged 66-75 made up the largest share. Twenty-five cases had a history of chronic diseases. The median time between the first symptoms and death was 12.50 days (IQR = 10.00-16.25), while the median time between the admission and death was 8.50 (IQR = 5.00-12.00) days. In persons aged over 56 years, the time between the first symptoms and death decreased with age, and so did the time between the admission and death, though the latter increased again in persons aged over 85 years. The major first symptoms included fever (52.63%), cough (31.58%), dyspnea (23.68%), myalgia and fatigue (15.79%). CONCLUSIONS: Among the death cases, persons with underlying diseases and aged over 65 made up the majority. The time between the first symptoms and death decreased with the advanced age. In all the age groups, males dominated the fatalities.


id: cord-284786-pua14ogz
title: The Effects of Air Pollution on COVID-19 Related Mortality in Northern Italy
author: Coker, Eric S.
date: 2020-08-04
txt: ./txt/cord-284786-pua14ogz.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-284786-pua14ogz.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32836855/
doi: 10.1007/s10640-020-00486-1
summary:
  In this paper, we empirically investigate the ecologic association between long-term concentrations of area-level fine particulate matter (PM(2.5)) and excess deaths in the first quarter of 2020 in municipalities of Northern Italy. We estimate a negative binomial model of excessive deaths on historical PM 2.5 concentrations and a series of control variables that may plausibly affect both PM 2.5 concentration and mortality, including population density; the spatial concentration of the industrial manufacturing sites; climatic conditions observed during the first quarter of 2020; and the demographic composition of the municipal population among others. Among the covariates, PM is the concentration of fine particulate matter in municipality i and is the associated parameter, which we expect positive and statistically different from zero; X is a vector of control variables that adjusts for the potential confounding effects and includes the (log of) total population as the offset while is a normally-distributed error term.

abstract:
  Long-term exposure to ambient air pollutant concentrations is known to cause chronic lung inflammation, a condition that may promote increased severity of COVID-19 syndrome caused by the novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2). In this paper, we empirically investigate the ecologic association between long-term concentrations of area-level fine particulate matter (PM(2.5)) and excess deaths in the first quarter of 2020 in municipalities of Northern Italy. The study accounts for potentially spatial confounding factors related to urbanization that may have influenced the spreading of SARS-CoV-2 and related COVID-19 mortality. Our epidemiological analysis uses geographical information (e.g., municipalities) and negative binomial regression to assess whether both ambient PM(2.5) concentration and excess mortality have a similar spatial distribution. Our analysis suggests a positive association of ambient PM(2.5) concentration on excess mortality in Northern Italy related to the COVID-19 epidemic. Our estimates suggest that a one-unit increase in PM(2.5) concentration (µg/m(3)) is associated with a 9% (95% confidence interval: 6–12%) increase in COVID-19 related mortality.


id: cord-284945-837qlk8y
title: Estimating the global spread of COVID-19
author: Rahmandad, H.
date: 2020-06-26
txt: ./txt/cord-284945-837qlk8y.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-284945-837qlk8y.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.06.24.20139451
doi: 10.1101/2020.06.24.20139451
summary:
  Using data for all 84 countries with reliable testing data (spanning 4.75 billion people) we develop a dynamic epidemiological model integrating data on cases, deaths, excess mortality and other factors to estimate how asymptomatic transmission, disease acuity, hospitalization, and behavioral and policy responses to risk condition prevalence and IFR across nations and over time. Our model captures transmission dynamics for the disease, as well as how, at the country level, transmission rates vary in response to risk perception and weather, testing rates condition infection and death data, and fatality rates depend on demographics and hospitalization. Using testing rate time series and various country-level data points (e.g. population, hospital capacity, comorbidities, age distribution), the model endogenously simulates confirmed new daily cases and deaths over time and matches them against observed data by maximizing the likelihood of observing those data given the model parameters.

abstract:
  Limited and inconsistent testing and differences in age distribution, health care resources, social distancing, and policies have caused large variations in the extent and dynamics of the COVID-19 pandemic across nations, complicating the estimation of prevalence, the infection fatality rate (IFR), and other factors important to care providers and policymakers. Using data for all 84 countries with reliable testing data (spanning 4.75 billion people) we develop a dynamic epidemiological model integrating data on cases, deaths, excess mortality and other factors to estimate how asymptomatic transmission, disease acuity, hospitalization, and behavioral and policy responses to risk condition prevalence and IFR across nations and over time. For these nations we estimate IFR averages 0.68% (0.64%-0.7%). Cases and deaths through June 18, 2020 are estimated to be 11.8 and 1.48 times official reports, respectively, at 88.5 (85-95.3) million and 600 (586-622) thousand. Prevalence and IFR vary substantially, e.g., Ecuador (18%; 0.61%), Chile (15.5%; 0.57%), Mexico (8.8%; 0.69%), Iran (7.9%; 0.44%), USA (5.3%; 0.99%), UK (5.2%; 1.59%), Iceland (1.65%, 0.56%), New Zealand (0.1%, 0.64%), but all nations remain well below the level needed for herd immunity. By alerting the public earlier and reducing contacts, extensive testing when the pandemic was declared could have averted 35.3 (32.7-42.7) million cases and 197 (171-232) thousand deaths. However, future outcomes are less dependent on testing and more contingent on the willingness of communities and governments to reduce transmission. Absent breakthroughs in treatment or vaccination and with mildly improved responses we project 249 (186-586) million cases and 1.75 (1.40-3.67) million deaths in the 84 countries by Spring 2021.


id: cord-285262-690kpupt
title: The involvement of regulated cell death forms in modulating the bacterial and viral pathogenesis
author: Imre, Gergely
date: 2020-01-27
txt: ./txt/cord-285262-690kpupt.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-285262-690kpupt.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://api.elsevier.com/content/article/pii/S1937644819301273
doi: 10.1016/bs.ircmb.2019.12.008
summary:
  Apoptosis, necroptosis and pyroptosis represent three distinct types of regulated cell death forms, which play significant roles in response to viral and bacterial infections. Abstract Apoptosis, necroptosis and pyroptosis represent three distinct types of regulated cell death forms, which play significant roles in response to viral and bacterial infections. In this chapter, based on the current advances in the research, we give a detailed description about the key cell death modalities, including apoptosis, necroptosis and pyroptosis emerging in response to pathogenic insults, and we discuss how bacterial and viral infections can modulate these signaling pathways. The components of the bacterial T3SS trigger inflammasome formation and pyroptotic cell death in Shigella infected macrophages through the activation of the NLR family CARD domain containing protein 4 (NLRC4) (Fig. 3) . Macrophage activation redirects yersinia-infected host cell death from apoptosis to caspase-1-dependent pyroptosis

abstract:
  Apoptosis, necroptosis and pyroptosis represent three distinct types of regulated cell death forms, which play significant roles in response to viral and bacterial infections. Whereas apoptosis is characterized by cell shrinkage, nuclear condensation, bleb formation and retained membrane integrity, necroptosis and pyroptosis exhibit osmotic imbalance driven cytoplasmic swelling and early membrane damage. These three cell death forms exert distinct immune stimulatory potential. The caspase driven apoptotic cell demise is considered in many circumstances as anti-inflammatory, whereas the two lytic cell death modalities can efficiently trigger immune response by releasing damage associated molecular patterns to the extracellular space. The relevance of these cell death modalities in infections can be best demonstrated by the presence of viral proteins that directly interfere with cell death pathways. Conversely, some pathogens hijack the cell death signaling routes to initiate a targeted attack against the immune cells of the host, and extracellular bacteria can benefit from the destruction of intact extracellular barriers upon cell death induction. The complexity and the crosstalk between these cell death modalities reflect a continuous evolutionary race between pathogens and host. This chapter discusses the current advances in the research of cell death signaling with regard to viral and bacterial infections and describes the network of the cell death initiating molecular mechanisms that selectively recognize pathogen associated molecular patterns.


id: cord-287283-t1hnswsq
title: Human rights violations in organ procurement practice in China
author: Paul, Norbert W.
date: 2017-02-08
txt: ./txt/cord-287283-t1hnswsq.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-287283-t1hnswsq.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://doi.org/10.1186/s12910-017-0169-x
doi: 10.1186/s12910-017-0169-x
summary:
  Although Chinese officials announced in December 2014 that the country would completely cease using organs harvested from prisoners, no regulatory adjustments or changes in China''s organ donation laws followed. CONCLUSION: To end the unethical practice and the abuse associated with it, we suggest to inextricably bind the use of human organs procured in the Chinese transplant system to enacting Chinese legislation prohibiting the use of organs from executed prisoners and making explicit rules for law enforcement. Recently, it has been repeatedly admitted by Chinese transplant officials that organs from executed prisoners had been procured without consent [17] [18] [19] . The unethical practice of lethally procuring vital organs from the living must be prevented by a law prohibiting use of prisoner organs generally, supporting change in the practical legal, medical and popular culture surrounding transplantation in China.

abstract:
  BACKGROUND: Over 90% of the organs transplanted in China before 2010 were procured from prisoners. Although Chinese officials announced in December 2014 that the country would completely cease using organs harvested from prisoners, no regulatory adjustments or changes in China’s organ donation laws followed. As a result, the use of prisoner organs remains legal in China if consent is obtained. DISCUSSION: We have collected and analysed available evidence on human rights violations in the organ procurement practice in China. We demonstrate that the practice not only violates international ethics standards, it is also associated with a large scale neglect of fundamental human rights. This includes organ procurement without consent from prisoners or their families as well as procurement of organs from incompletely executed, still-living prisoners. The human rights critique of these practices will also address the specific situatedness of prisoners, often conditioned and traumatized by a cascade of human rights abuses in judicial structures. CONCLUSION: To end the unethical practice and the abuse associated with it, we suggest to inextricably bind the use of human organs procured in the Chinese transplant system to enacting Chinese legislation prohibiting the use of organs from executed prisoners and making explicit rules for law enforcement. Other than that, the international community must cease to abet the continuation of the present system by demanding an authoritative ban on the use of organs from executed Chinese prisoners. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12910-017-0169-x) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.


id: cord-288678-ptvaopgj
title: The Data set for Patient Information Based Algorithm to Predict Mortality Cause by COVID-19
author: Li, Jing
date: 2020-04-24
txt: ./txt/cord-288678-ptvaopgj.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-288678-ptvaopgj.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2352340920305138?v=s5
doi: 10.1016/j.dib.2020.105619
summary:
  A new methodology, Patient Information Based Algorithm (PIBA) [1] , has been adapted to process the data and used to estimate the death rate of COVID-19 in real-time. A new methodology, Patient Information Based Algorithm (PIBA) [1] , has been adapted to process the data and used to estimate the death rate of COVID-19 in real-time. The disease information in table 2 has been collected from the public media before we resume data analysing with the same method of death rate estimation and prediction in South Korea as in China [1] . Each curve consisting of several death rate will have a trendline and thus a formula to describe this trend as well as the current ratio between accumulative death cases and confirmed cases on each day (Table 4 ). The data analysis was all following normal distribution, either in calculating the possibility of every selected score or in estimating the death rate.

abstract:
  The data of COVID-19 disease in China and then in South Korea were collected daily from several different official websites. The collected data included 33 death cases in Wuhan city of Hubei province during early outbreak as well as confirmed cases and death toll in some specific regions, which were chosen as representatives from the perspective of the coronavirus outbreak in China. Data were copied and pasted onto Excel spreadsheets to perform data analysis. A new methodology, Patient Information Based Algorithm (PIBA) [1], has been adapted to process the data and used to estimate the death rate of COVID-19 in real-time. Assumption is that the number of days from inpatients to death fall into a pattern of normal distribution and the scores in normal distribution can be obtained by observing 33 death cases and analysing the data [2]. We selected 5 scores in normal distribution of these durations as lagging days, which will be used in the following estimation of death rate. We calculated each death rate on accumulative confirmed cases with each lagging day from the current data and then weighted every death rate with its corresponding possibility to obtain the total death rate on each day. While the trendline of these death rate curves meet the curve of current ratio between accumulative death cases and confirmed cases at some points in the near future, we considered that these intersections are within the range of real death rates. Six tables were presented to illustrate the PIBA method using data from China and South Korea. One figure on estimated rate of infection and patients in serious condition and retrospective estimation of initially occurring time of CORID-19 based on PIBA.


id: cord-290687-kc7t1y5o
title: Susceptibility and Sustainability of India against CoVid19: a multivariate approach
author: Ray, Soumi
date: 2020-04-21
txt: ./txt/cord-290687-kc7t1y5o.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-290687-kc7t1y5o.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: http://medrxiv.org/cgi/content/short/2020.04.16.20066159v1?rss=1
doi: 10.1101/2020.04.16.20066159
summary:
  Materials and Methods: Data of weather, vaccination trends, life expectancy, lung disease, number of infected people in the pre-lockdown and post-lockdown period of highly infected nations are collected. Conclusions: Though depending on the study outcome, the impact of CoVid19 in India can be predicted, the required lockdown period cannot be calculated due to data limitation. We have considered life expectancy also to inspect its impact on the number of infected cases and deaths. In This article, the data of Bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG) vaccination has been compared with present death rate of different countries. These diseases have shown an impact on death rate in many countries which are badly affected by coronavirus. Negative minimum temperature, a specific range of maximum temperature, lack of BCG vaccination and tendency of other lungs diseases have shown some positive impact in increasing the number of CoVid19 cases and death.

abstract:
  Purpose: We are currently in the middle of a global crisis. Covid19 pandemic has suddenly threatened the existence of human life. Till date, as no medicine or vaccine is discovered, the best way to fight against this pandemic is prevention. The impact of different environmental, social, economic and health parameters is unknown and under research. It is important to identify the factors which can weaken the virus, and the nations which are more vulnerable to this virus. Materials and Methods: Data of weather, vaccination trends, life expectancy, lung disease, number of infected people in the pre-lockdown and post-lockdown period of highly infected nations are collected. These are extracted from authentic online resources and published reports. Analysis is done to find the possible impact of each parameter on CoVid19. Results: CoVid19 has no linear correlation with any of the selected parameters, though few parameters have depicted non-linear relationship in the graphs. Further investigations have shown better result for some parameters. A combination of the parameters results in a better correlation with infection rate. Conclusions: Though depending on the study outcome, the impact of CoVid19 in India can be predicted, the required lockdown period cannot be calculated due to data limitation.


id: cord-292378-mz3cvc0p
author: Bone, A. E.
date: 2020-06-09
txt: ./txt/cord-292378-mz3cvc0p.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-292378-mz3cvc0p.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.06.07.20124693
doi: 10.1101/2020.06.07.20124693
summary:
  In England and Wales, official mortality data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) reveal that during the first 10 weeks of the pandemic, (7 th March to 15th May), there were over 41,000 COVID-19 deaths, most occurring in hospital (65%), with 28% in care homes and few elsewhere (7%). The objectives are: 1) to explore trends in place of death; 2) to explore the age and gender distribution of baseline deaths, COVID-19 deaths and additional deaths; 3) to estimate the proportion of people who died from COVID-19 who would have been in their last year of life, and differences by age; 4) to use this information to discuss implications for palliative care provision, service planning, and research. Using routine data and modelling scenarios to understand mortality patterns during the COVID-19 pandemic, we highlight that care homes temporarily became the most common place to die in England and Wales, and that hospital and home deaths increased by over 50% while deaths in hospices fell by 20%.

title:
  Changing patterns of mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic: population-based modelling to understand palliative care implications

abstract:
  Background COVID-19 has directly and indirectly caused high mortality worldwide. Aim To explore patterns of mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic and implications for palliative care provision, planning, and research. Design Descriptive analysis and population-based modelling of routine data. Participants and setting All deaths registered in England and Wales between 7th March and 15th May 2020. We described the following mortality categories by age, gender and place of death: 1) baseline deaths (deaths that would typically occur in a given period) 2) COVID-19 deaths 3) additional deaths not directly attributed to COVID-19. We estimated the proportion of COVID-19 deaths among people who would be in their last year of life in the absence of the pandemic, using simple modelling with explicit assumptions. Results During the first 10 weeks of the pandemic there were 101,615 baseline deaths, 41,105 COVID-19 deaths and 14,520 additional deaths. Deaths in care homes increased by 220% compared to home and hospital deaths which increased by 77% and 90%. Hospice deaths fell by 20%. Additional deaths were among older people (86% aged [≥]75 years), and most occurred in care homes (56%) and at home (43%). We estimate that 44% (38% to 50%) of COVID-19 deaths occurred among people who would have been in their last year of life in the absence of the pandemic. Conclusions Healthcare systems must ensure availability of palliative care to support people with severe COVID-19 in community and hospital settings. Integrated models of palliative care in care homes are urgently needed.


id: cord-298036-2zurc60t
title: Cell death signalling in virus infection
author: Imre, Gergely
date: 2020-09-12
txt: ./txt/cord-298036-2zurc60t.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-298036-2zurc60t.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://api.elsevier.com/content/article/pii/S0898656820302497
doi: 10.1016/j.cellsig.2020.109772
summary:
  Subsequently, granzyme-B induces mitochondrial apoptosis by performing cleavage of the BCL-2 homology domain-3 (BH3)-only protein, BH3 interacting domain death agonist (BID), which then leads to BAX/BAK-mediated MOMP and the initiation of the caspase-9-driven apoptotic pathway [16] . Still, the mechanism, by which IRF-3 triggers cell death signalling pathways is only partially understood and the studies indicate a strong cell type specificity in the apoptosis sensitivity in response to viral PAMPs Z-RNA and z-DNA fragments, which are distinct from the B-structure of eukaryotic RNA and DNA are recognized by z-DNA/RNA binding protein-1 (ZBP1; also: DAI). Necroptosis initiation takes place upon TNFR ligation, which, however, primarily leads to NFkB activation via the assembly of so called complex-I, including adaptor proteins TNFRSF1A associated via death domain (TRADD), TRAF2, cellular IAP (cIAP) and ubiquitinated receptor interacting serine/threonine kinase 1 (RIPK1) [10] .

abstract:
  Apoptosis, necroptosis and pyroptosis represent three major regulated cell death modalities. Apoptosis features cell shrinkage, nuclear fragmentation and cytoplasm-blebbing. Necroptosis and pyroptosis exhibit osmotic imbalances in the cell accompanied by early membrane ruptures, which morphologically resembles necrosis. Importantly, these two lytic cell death forms facilitate the release of damage associated molecular patterns into the extracellular space leading to inflammatory response. Whereas, during apoptosis, the membrane integrity is preserved and the apoptotic cell is removed by neighbouring cells ensuring the avoidance of immune-stimulation. Viruses comprise a versatile group of intracellular pathogens, which elicit various strategies to infect and to propagate. Viruses are recognized by a myriad of pathogen recognition receptors in the human cells, which consequently lead to activation of the immune system and in certain circumstances cell-autonomous cell death. Importantly, the long-standing view that a cell death inducing capacity of a virus is equal to its pathogenic potential seems to be only partially valid. The altruistic cell death of an infected cell may serve the whole organism by ultimately curbing the way of virus manufacturing. In fact, several viruses express “anti-cell death” proteins to avoid this viral-defence mechanism. Conversely, some viruses hijack cell death pathways to selectively destroy cell populations in order to compromise the immune system of the host. This review discusses the pros and cons of virus induced cell death from the perspective of the host cells and attempts to provide a comprehensive overview of the complex network of cell death signalling in virus infection.


id: cord-300651-4didq6dk
title: Clinical Features of Fatalities in Patients With COVID-19
author: Sun, Ya-Jun
date: 2020-07-14
txt: ./txt/cord-300651-4didq6dk.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-300651-4didq6dk.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://doi.org/10.1017/dmp.2020.235
doi: 10.1017/dmp.2020.235
summary:
  METHODS: We conducted an Internet-based retrospective cohort study through retrieving the clinical information of 100 COVID-19 deaths from nonduplicating incidental reports in Chinese provincial and other governmental websites between January 23 and March 10, 2020. I n December 2019, several cases of pneumonia of unknown cause were reported in Wuhan, China that were later recognized as a novel coronavirus infection, named coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) by the World Health Organization (WHO). The reported clinical characteristics included the patient''s age, sex, initial onset symptoms, pre-existing chronic diseases, direct cause of death, date of admission, date of diagnosis, and date of death. Among the 100 COVID-19 fatalities, 16 cases were missing data on direct cause of death. In this Internet-based data intelligence study, we observed that the majority of COVID-19 deaths were elderly (approximately 8 of 10) and males (6 of 10), and most fatalities (3 of 4) occurred in patients with chronic illnesses.

abstract:
  OBJECTIVES: The novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has spread to over 213 countries and territories. We sought to describe the clinical features of fatalities in patients with severe COVID-19. METHODS: We conducted an Internet-based retrospective cohort study through retrieving the clinical information of 100 COVID-19 deaths from nonduplicating incidental reports in Chinese provincial and other governmental websites between January 23 and March 10, 2020. RESULTS: Approximately 6 of 10 COVID-19 deaths were males (64.0%). The average age was 70.7 ± 13.5 y, and 84% of patients were elderly (over age 60 y). The mean duration from admission to diagnosis was 2.2 ± 3.8 d (median: 1 d). The mean duration from diagnosis to death was 9.9 ± 7.0 d (median: 9 d). Approximately 3 of 4 cases (76.0%) were complicated by 1 or more chronic diseases, including hypertension (41.0%), diabetes (29.0%) and coronary heart disease (27.0%), respiratory disorders (23.0%), and cerebrovascular disease (12.0%). Fever (46.0%), cough (33.0%), and shortness of breath (9.0%) were the most common first symptoms. Multiple organ failure (67.9%), circulatory failure (20.2%), and respiratory failure (11.9%) are the top 3 direct causes of death. CONCLUSIONS: COVID-19 deaths are mainly elderly and patients with chronic diseases especially cardiovascular disorders and diabetes. Multiple organ failure is the most common direct cause of death.


id: cord-301300-nfl9z8c7
title: Operationalizing and selecting outcome measures for the HEALing Communities Study
author: Slavova, Svetla
date: 2020-10-02
txt: ./txt/cord-301300-nfl9z8c7.txt
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extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.drugalcdep.2020.108328
doi: 10.1016/j.drugalcdep.2020.108328
summary:
  Three secondary outcome measures will support hypothesis testing for specific evidence-based practices known to decrease opioid overdose deaths: (1) number of naloxone units distributed in HCS communities; (2) number of unique HCS residents receiving Food and Drug Administration-approved buprenorphine products for treatment of opioid use disorder; and (3) number of HCS residents with new incidents of high-risk opioid prescribing. The Helping to End Addiction Long-term (HEALing) Communities Study (HCS) is a multisite, parallel-group, cluster randomized wait-list controlled trial evaluating the impact of the Communities That HEAL intervention to reduce opioid overdose deaths and other associated adverse outcomes (Walsh et al., in press) . The research site teams established multiple data use agreements with data owners to support the calculation for more than 80 study measures based on administrative data collections, such as death certificates, emergency medical services data, inpatient and emergency department discharge billing records, Medicaid claims, syndromic surveillance data, PDMP data, Drug Enforcement Administration data on drug take back collection sites and events, DATA 2000 waivered prescriber data, HIV registry, naloxone distribution and dispensed prescription data.

abstract:
  BACKGROUND: The Helping to End Addiction Long-term (HEALing) Communities Study (HCS) is a multisite, parallel-group, cluster randomized wait-list controlled trial evaluating the impact of the Communities That HEAL intervention to reduce opioid overdose deaths and associated adverse outcomes. This paper presents the approach used to define and align administrative data across the four research sites to measure key study outcomes. METHODS: Priority was given to using administrative data and established data collection infrastructure to ensure reliable, timely, and sustainable measures and to harmonize study outcomes across the HCS sites. RESULTS: The research teams established multiple data use agreements and developed technical specifications for more than 80 study measures. The primary outcome, number of opioid overdose deaths, will be measured from death certificate data. Three secondary outcome measures will support hypothesis testing for specific evidence-based practices known to decrease opioid overdose deaths: (1) number of naloxone units distributed in HCS communities; (2) number of unique HCS residents receiving Food and Drug Administration-approved buprenorphine products for treatment of opioid use disorder; and (3) number of HCS residents with new incidents of high-risk opioid prescribing. CONCLUSIONS: The HCS has already made an impact on existing data capacity in the four states. In addition to providing data needed to measure study outcomes, the HCS will provide methodology and tools to facilitate data-driven responses to the opioid epidemic, and establish a central repository for community-level longitudinal data to help researchers and public health practitioners study and understand different aspects of the Communities That HEAL framework.


id: cord-301399-s2i6qfjn
title: Changes in Mortality in Top 10 Causes of Death from 2011 to 2018
author: Rana, Jamal S.
date: 2020-07-23
txt: ./txt/cord-301399-s2i6qfjn.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-301399-s2i6qfjn.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32705476/
doi: 10.1007/s11606-020-06070-z
abstract: nan
summary:
  Therefore, we examined changes in the number of deaths and age-adjusted mortality rates (AAMR) attributed to the top 10 causes of death between 2011 and 2018, the last year we have data available from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. We chose 2011 as the start date because of earlier work showing a transition in 2011 in 2 of the top 10 causes of death (heart disease and stroke) from a long-term decline to increasing numbers of deaths since then. Important patterns of change in AAMR in the past decade have been previously noted, from stalling of the decline in mortality due to heart disease 1 to decrease in life expectancy attributed to drug overdoses and suicides among young and middle-aged adults. Further, the ≥ 65 years population is projected to increase by 39% from 52.4 million in 2018 to 73.1 million in 2030 3 so that the number of deaths from most of the 10 leading causes can be expected to increase unless more effective preventive and therapeutic interventions can be implemented.


id: cord-302336-zj3oixvk
author: Clift, Ash K
date: 2020-10-21
txt: ./txt/cord-302336-zj3oixvk.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-302336-zj3oixvk.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33082154/
doi: 10.1136/bmj.m3731
summary:
  13 The use of primary care datasets with linkage to registries such as death records, hospital admissions data, and covid-19 testing results represents a novel approach to clinical risk prediction modelling for covid-19. Patients entered the cohort on 24 January 2020 (date of first confirmed case of covid-19 in the UK) and were followed up until they had the outcome of interest or the end of the first study period (30 April 2020), which was the date up to which linked data were available at the time of the derivation of the model, or the second time period (1 May 2020 until 30 June 2020) for the temporal cohort validation. 25 D statistics (a discrimination measure that quantifies the separation in survival between patients with different levels of predicted risks) and Harrell''s C statistics (a discrimination metric that quantifies the extent to which people with higher risk scores have earlier events) were evaluated at 97 days (the maximum followup period available at the time of the derivation of the model) and 60 days for the second temporal validation, with corresponding 95% confidence intervals.

title:
  Living risk prediction algorithm (QCOVID) for risk of hospital admission and mortality from coronavirus 19 in adults: national derivation and validation cohort study

abstract:
  OBJECTIVE: To derive and validate a risk prediction algorithm to estimate hospital admission and mortality outcomes from coronavirus disease 2019 (covid-19) in adults. DESIGN: Population based cohort study. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: QResearch database, comprising 1205 general practices in England with linkage to covid-19 test results, Hospital Episode Statistics, and death registry data. 6.08 million adults aged 19-100 years were included in the derivation dataset and 2.17 million in the validation dataset. The derivation and first validation cohort period was 24 January 2020 to 30 April 2020. The second temporal validation cohort covered the period 1 May 2020 to 30 June 2020. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: The primary outcome was time to death from covid-19, defined as death due to confirmed or suspected covid-19 as per the death certification or death occurring in a person with confirmed severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection in the period 24 January to 30 April 2020. The secondary outcome was time to hospital admission with confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection. Models were fitted in the derivation cohort to derive risk equations using a range of predictor variables. Performance, including measures of discrimination and calibration, was evaluated in each validation time period. RESULTS: 4384 deaths from covid-19 occurred in the derivation cohort during follow-up and 1722 in the first validation cohort period and 621 in the second validation cohort period. The final risk algorithms included age, ethnicity, deprivation, body mass index, and a range of comorbidities. The algorithm had good calibration in the first validation cohort. For deaths from covid-19 in men, it explained 73.1% (95% confidence interval 71.9% to 74.3%) of the variation in time to death (R(2)); the D statistic was 3.37 (95% confidence interval 3.27 to 3.47), and Harrell’s C was 0.928 (0.919 to 0.938). Similar results were obtained for women, for both outcomes, and in both time periods. In the top 5% of patients with the highest predicted risks of death, the sensitivity for identifying deaths within 97 days was 75.7%. People in the top 20% of predicted risk of death accounted for 94% of all deaths from covid-19. CONCLUSION: The QCOVID population based risk algorithm performed well, showing very high levels of discrimination for deaths and hospital admissions due to covid-19. The absolute risks presented, however, will change over time in line with the prevailing SARS-C0V-2 infection rate and the extent of social distancing measures in place, so they should be interpreted with caution. The model can be recalibrated for different time periods, however, and has the potential to be dynamically updated as the pandemic evolves.


id: cord-307753-p1htdvrp
title: Lessons from the past, policies for the future: resilience and sustainability in past crises
author: Haldon, John
date: 2020-05-24
txt: ./txt/cord-307753-p1htdvrp.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-307753-p1htdvrp.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10669-020-09778-9
doi: 10.1007/s10669-020-09778-9
summary:
  Past human societies as a whole have been extraordinarily resilient in the face of severe challenges, but the configuration of social and political structures was always impacted in a number of ways, with substantial implications for development pathways (e.g., the different medium-term outcomes of the Black Death in England and France) (Borsch 2005, pp. How societies in the past responded to stress depends on three key sets of conditions: their complexity (the degree of interdependency across social relationships and structures), their institutional and ideological flexibility, and their systemic redundancy, all of which together determine the resilience of the system. Yet if we examine particular outbreaks, even the destructive demographic narrative demonstrates the ability of the Eastern Roman state to react both immediately to the increased numbers of deaths, maintain vital administrative efforts, and continue its long-term political goals.

abstract:
  This article surveys some examples of the ways past societies have responded to environmental stressors such as famine, war, and pandemic. We show that people in the past did think about system recovery, but only on a sectoral scale. They did perceive challenges and respond appropriately, but within cultural constraints and resource limitations. Risk mitigation was generally limited in scope, localized, and again determined by cultural logic that may not necessarily have been aware of more than symptoms, rather than actual causes. We also show that risk-managing and risk-mitigating arrangements often favored the vested interests of elites rather than the population more widely, an issue policy makers today still face.


id: cord-319860-zouscolw
title: Place and causes of acute cardiovascular mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic
author: Wu, Jianhua
date: 2020-09-28
txt: ./txt/cord-319860-zouscolw.txt
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extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32988988/
doi: 10.1136/heartjnl-2020-317912
summary:
  The greatest proportional increase of excess COVID-19-related acute CV death was due to pulmonary embolism (251, a proportional increase of 11%) followed by stroke (562, a proportional increase of 6%), acute coronary syndrome (318, a proportional increase of 5%), cardiac arrest (93, a proportional increase of 6%) and heart failure (273, a proportional increase of 4%) (figure 2, table 2). The most frequent causes of excess acute CV death in care homes and hospices were stroke (715, a proportional increase of 39%) and heart failure (227, a proportional increase of 25%), which compared with acute coronary syndrome (768, a proportional increase of 41%) and heart failure (734, a proportional increase of 33%) at home, and pulmonary embolism (155, a proportional increase of 13%) and cardiogenic shock (55, a proportional increase of 15%) in hospital ( figure 3, table 3 ). ► Our study of all adult deaths in England and Wales between 1 January 2014 and 30 June 2020 has quantified the CV mortality impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, be this related to contagion and/or the public response.

abstract:
  OBJECTIVE: To describe the place and causes of acute cardiovascular death during the COVID-19 pandemic. METHODS: Retrospective cohort of adult (age ≥18 years) acute cardiovascular deaths (n=5 87 225) in England and Wales, from 1 January 2014 to 30 June 2020. The exposure was the COVID-19 pandemic (from onset of the first COVID-19 death in England, 2 March 2020). The main outcome was acute cardiovascular events directly contributing to death. RESULTS: After 2 March 2020, there were 28 969 acute cardiovascular deaths of which 5.1% related to COVID-19, and an excess acute cardiovascular mortality of 2085 (+8%). Deaths in the community accounted for nearly half of all deaths during this period. Death at home had the greatest excess acute cardiovascular deaths (2279, +35%), followed by deaths at care homes and hospices (1095, +32%) and in hospital (50, +0%). The most frequent cause of acute cardiovascular death during this period was stroke (10 318, 35.6%), followed by acute coronary syndrome (ACS) (7 098, 24.5%), heart failure (6 770, 23.4%), pulmonary embolism (2 689, 9.3%) and cardiac arrest (1 328, 4.6%). The greatest cause of excess cardiovascular death in care homes and hospices was stroke (715, +39%), compared with ACS (768, +41%) at home and cardiogenic shock (55, +15%) in hospital. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: The COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in an inflation in acute cardiovascular deaths, nearly half of which occurred in the community and most did not relate to COVID-19 infection suggesting there were delays to seeking help or likely the result of undiagnosed COVID-19.


id: cord-319912-fc9tmx96
title: COVID-19 in Italy: An Analysis of Death Registry Data
author: Ciminelli, Gabriele
date: 2020-09-16
txt: ./txt/cord-319912-fc9tmx96.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-319912-fc9tmx96.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32935849/
doi: 10.1093/pubmed/fdaa165
summary:
  In the Veneto region, which embraced mass testing, contact tracing, and at-home care provision, COVID-19-induced mortality was, respectively, three and six times smaller than in neighboring Emilia-Romagna and Lombardy. This result helps to rationalize the serious undercounting of COVID-19 fatalities in official statistics, which do not include deaths in nursing homes. We zoom in on Lombardy, the worst affected region, to test whether COVID-19 had an additional effect on mortality in municipalities with a higher share of people living in nursing homes (see the Online Appendix for details on the estimation). A plausible estimate suggests that true deaths were about 60% higher than what was officially reported during the first wave of the COVID-19 epidemic in Italy. We use highly granular daily death registry data for thousands of municipalities in Italy''s north to conduct a precise estimation of the true effect of COVID-19 on the mortality rate and compare the real death toll with what is reported in official statistics.

abstract:
  BACKGROUND: There are still many unknowns about COVID-19. We do not know its exact mortality rate nor the speed through which it spreads across communities. This lack of evidence complicates the design of appropriate response policies. METHODS: We source daily death registry data for 4100 municipalities in Italy’s north and match them to Census data. We augment the dataset with municipality-level data on a host of co-factors of COVID-19 mortality, which we exploit in a differences-in-differences regression model to analyze COVID-19-induced mortality. RESULTS: We find that COVID-19 killed more than 0.15% of the local population during the first wave of the epidemic. We also show that official statistics vastly underreport this death toll, by about 60%. Next, we uncover the dramatic effects of the epidemic on nursing home residents in the outbreak epicenter: in municipalities with a high share of the elderly living in nursing homes, COVID-19 mortality was about twice as high as in those with no nursing home intown. CONCLUSIONS: A pro-active approach in managing the epidemic is key to reduce COVID-19 mortality. Authorities should ramp-up testing capacity and increase contact-tracing abilities. Adequate protective equipment should be provided to nursing home residents and staff.


id: cord-334835-j6u8t8j2
author: Berenguer, Juan
date: 2020-08-04
txt: ./txt/cord-334835-j6u8t8j2.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-334835-j6u8t8j2.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cmi.2020.07.024
doi: 10.1016/j.cmi.2020.07.024
summary:
  title: Characteristics and predictors of death among 4,035 consecutively hospitalized patients with COVID-19 in Spain OBJECTIVES: We aimed to analyse the characteristics and predictors of death in hospitalized patients with COVID-19 in Spain. Seventeen factors were independently associated with an increased hazard of death, the strongest among them included advanced age, liver cirrhosis, low age-adjusted oxygen saturation, higher concentrations of C-reactive protein, and lower estimated glomerular filtration rate. In the 209 final adjusted analysis, we found 17 factors independently associated with an increased hazard of 210 death: male sex, older age, arterial hypertension, obesity, liver cirrhosis, chronic neurological 211 disorder, active cancer, dementia, dyspnoea, confusion, low age-adjusted SaO2 on room air, higher 212 white cell blood count (WBC), higher neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio, lower platelet count, 213 prolonged INR, lower eGFR, and higher concentrations of CRP (Figure 2) .

title:
  Characteristics and predictors of death among 4,035 consecutively hospitalized patients with COVID-19 in Spain

abstract:
  OBJECTIVES: We aimed to analyse the characteristics and predictors of death in hospitalized patients with COVID-19 in Spain. METHODS: Retrospective observational study of the first consecutive patients hospitalized with COVID-19 confirmed by real-time polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) assay in 127 Spanish centres until March 17, 2020. The follow-up censoring date was April 17, 2020. We collected demographic, clinical, laboratory, treatment, and complications data. The primary endpoint was all-cause mortality. Univariable and multivariable Cox regression analyses were performed to identify factors associated with death. RESULTS: Of the 4,035 patients, males accounted for 2,433/3,987 (61.0%), the median age was 70 years, and 2,539/3,439 (73.8%) had >1 comorbidity. The most common symptoms were a history of fever, cough, malaise, and dyspnoea. During hospitalization 1,255/3,979 (31.5%) patients developed acute respiratory distress syndrome, 736/3,988 (18.5%) were admitted to intensive care units, and 619/3,992 (15.5%) underwent mechanical ventilation. Viral or host-targeted medications included lopinavir/ritonavir 2,820/4,005 (70.4%), hydroxychloroquine 2,618/3,995 (65.5%), interferon-beta 1,153/3,950 (29.2%), corticosteroids 1,109/3,965 (28.0%), and tocilizumab 373/3,951 (9.4%). Overall 1,131/4,035 (28%) patients died. Mortality increased with age (85.6% occurring in older than 65 years). Seventeen factors were independently associated with an increased hazard of death, the strongest among them included advanced age, liver cirrhosis, low age-adjusted oxygen saturation, higher concentrations of C-reactive protein, and lower estimated glomerular filtration rate. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings provide comprehensive information about characteristics and complications of severe COVID-19 and may help to identify patients at a higher risk of death.


id: cord-336577-uvnbgsds
title: Sunset Rounds: a Framework for Post-death Care in the Hospital
author: Salazar, James W.
date: 2020-10-01
txt: ./txt/cord-336577-uvnbgsds.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-336577-uvnbgsds.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33006080/
doi: 10.1007/s11606-020-06249-4
abstract: nan
summary:
  Notification of survivors -Determine the most appropriate patient contact and the team-member best suited to disclose -Use "SPIKES" 2 principles and the words "died" or "death" -Offer assistance in sharing the news with other friends or family -Consider saying a few closing words honoring the patient Care team should include primary physicians and nurses, relevant consultants (e.g., palliative care), spiritual personnel, and decedent affairs team members Death in the context of COVID-19: For specific guidance on the safe management of a dead body in the context of COVID-19 and how it may inform the above framework, please refer to the World Health Organization Interim Guidance 3 *State reporting guidelines can be found at: https://www.cdc.gov/phlp/publications/topic/coroner.html †Local Networks can be found at: https://www.organdonor.gov/awareness/organizations/local-opo.html is important that we work collectively to care for each other, support our survivors, and honor the sunsets of our patients.


id: cord-337763-kusqyumn
title: Underreporting of death by COVID-19 in Brazil''s second most populous state
author: Alves, T. H. E.
date: 2020-05-23
txt: ./txt/cord-337763-kusqyumn.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-337763-kusqyumn.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.05.20.20108415
doi: 10.1101/2020.05.20.20108415
summary:
  The underreporting of COVID-19 deaths in the state of Minas Gerais (MG), where is concentrated the second largest population of the country, reveals government unpreparedness, as there is a low capacity of testing in the population, which prevents the real understanding of the general panorama of Sars-Cov-2 dissemination. The goals of this research are to analyze the causes of deaths in the different Brazilian government databases (ARPEN and SINAN) and to assess whether there are sub-records shown by the unexpected increase in the frequency of deaths from causes clinically similar to COVID-19. The present study aims to analyze the death causes in the notary records and in the Brazilian National disease notification system records, and thus evaluate the subregistries and the possible increase in the frequency of deaths with clinically compatible causes to COVID-19 in the Minas Gerais territory.

abstract:
  The COVID-19 pandemic brings to light the reality of the Brazilian health system. The underreporting of COVID-19 deaths in the state of Minas Gerais (MG), where is concentrated the second largest population of the country, reveals government unpreparedness, as there is a low capacity of testing in the population, which prevents the real understanding of the general panorama of Sars-Cov-2 dissemination. The goals of this research are to analyze the causes of deaths in the different Brazilian government databases (ARPEN and SINAN) and to assess whether there are sub-records shown by the unexpected increase in the frequency of deaths from causes clinically similar to COVID-19. A descriptive and quantitative analysis of the number of COVID-19 deaths and similar causes was made in different databases. Ours results demonstrate that the different official sources had a discrepancy of 209.23% between these data referring to the same period. There was also a 648.61% increase in SARS deaths in 2020, when compared to the average of previous years. Finally, it was shown that there was an increase in the rate of pneumonia and respiratory insufficiency (RI) by 5.36% and 5.72%, respectively. In conclusion, there is an underreporting of COVID-19 deaths in MG due to the unexplained excess of SARS deaths, Respiratory insufficiency and pneumonia compared to previous years.


id: cord-340805-qbvgnr4r
title: Forecasting for COVID-19 has failed
author: Ioannidis, John P.A.
date: 2020-08-25
txt: ./txt/cord-340805-qbvgnr4r.txt
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extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2020.08.004
doi: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2020.08.004
summary:
  Poor data input, wrong modeling assumptions, high sensitivity of estimates, lack of incorporation of epidemiological features, poor past evidence on effects of available interventions, lack of transparency, errors, lack of determinacy, looking at only one or a few dimensions of the problem at hand, lack of expertise in crucial disciplines, groupthink and bandwagon effects and selective reporting are some of the causes of these failures. When major decisions (e.g. draconian lockdowns) are based on forecasts, the harms (in terms of health, economy, and society at large) and the asymmetry of risks need to be approached in a holistic fashion, considering the totality of the evidence.

abstract:
  Epidemic forecasting has a dubious track-record, and its failures became more prominent with COVID-19. Poor data input, wrong modeling assumptions, high sensitivity of estimates, lack of incorporation of epidemiological features, poor past evidence on effects of available interventions, lack of transparency, errors, lack of determinacy, looking at only one or a few dimensions of the problem at hand, lack of expertise in crucial disciplines, groupthink and bandwagon effects and selective reporting are some of the causes of these failures. Nevertheless, epidemic forecasting is unlikely to be abandoned. Some (but not all) of these problems can be fixed. Careful modeling of predictive distributions rather than focusing on point estimates, considering multiple dimensions of impact, and continuously reappraising models based on their validated performance may help. If extreme values are considered, extremes should be considered for the consequences of multiple dimensions of impact so as to continuously calibrate predictive insights and decision-making. When major decisions (e.g. draconian lockdowns) are based on forecasts, the harms (in terms of health, economy, and society at large) and the asymmetry of risks need to be approached in a holistic fashion, considering the totality of the evidence.


id: cord-341806-7hatbzra
author: Bone, Anna E
date: 2020-07-24
txt: ./txt/cord-341806-7hatbzra.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-341806-7hatbzra.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32706299/
doi: 10.1177/0269216320944810
summary:
  In England and Wales, official mortality data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) reveal that during the first 10 weeks of the pandemic (7 March to 15 May 2020), there were over 41,000 COVID-19 deaths, most occurring in hospitals (65%), with 28% in care homes and few elsewhere (7%). This study aims to explore patterns of mortality during the first 10 weeks of the COVID-19 pandemic in England and Wales (7 March to 15 May 2020) to understand implications for palliative care, service planning and research. The objectives are (1) to explore trends in place of death; (2) to explore the age and gender distribution of baseline deaths, COVID-19 deaths and additional deaths; (3) to estimate the proportion of people who died from COVID-19 who would have been in their last year of life, and differences by age; and (4) to use this information to discuss implications for palliative care provision, service planning and research.

title:
  Changing patterns of mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic: Population-based modelling to understand palliative care implications

abstract:
  BACKGROUND: COVID-19 has directly and indirectly caused high mortality worldwide. AIM: To explore patterns of mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic and implications for palliative care, service planning and research. DESIGN: Descriptive analysis and population-based modelling of routine data. PARTICIPANTS AND SETTING: All deaths registered in England and Wales between 7 March and 15 May 2020. We described the following mortality categories by age, gender and place of death: (1) baseline deaths (deaths that would typically occur in a given period); (2) COVID-19 deaths and (3) additional deaths not directly attributed to COVID-19. We estimated the proportion of people who died from COVID-19 who might have been in their last year of life in the absence of the pandemic using simple modelling with explicit assumptions. RESULTS: During the first 10 weeks of the pandemic, there were 101,614 baseline deaths, 41,105 COVID-19 deaths and 14,520 additional deaths. Deaths in care homes increased by 220%, while home and hospital deaths increased by 77% and 90%, respectively. Hospice deaths fell by 20%. Additional deaths were among older people (86% aged ⩾ 75 years), and most occurred in care homes (56%) and at home (43%). We estimate that 22% (13%–31%) of COVID-19 deaths occurred among people who might have been in their last year of life in the absence of the pandemic. CONCLUSION: The COVID-19 pandemic has led to a surge in palliative care needs. Health and social care systems must ensure availability of palliative care to support people with severe COVID-19, particularly in care homes.


id: cord-342211-y7zxipiz
title: Sensitivity of UK Covid-19 deaths to the timing of suppression measures and their relaxation
author: Dagpunar, J. S.
date: 2020-05-15
txt: ./txt/cord-342211-y7zxipiz.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-342211-y7zxipiz.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: http://medrxiv.org/cgi/content/short/2020.05.09.20096859v1?rss=1
doi: 10.1101/2020.05.09.20096859
summary:
  In this paper I examine the sensitivity of total UK Covid-19 deaths and the demand for intensive care and ward beds, to the timing and duration of suppression periods during a 500 day period. Using an expected latent period of 4.5 days and infectious period of 3.8 days, R_0 was first estimated as 3.18 using observed death rates under unmitigated spread and then under the effects of the total lock down (R_0=0.60) of 23 March. Starting with one exposed person at time zero and a suppression consistent with an R_0 of 0.60 on day 72, the model predicts around 39,000 deaths for a first wave, but this reduces to around 11,000 if the intervention takes place one week earlier. Figure 1 shows the death rate, required ward and intensive care beds, numbers of susceptible, exposed, and infectious, and cumulative deaths over time.

abstract:
  In this paper I examine the sensitivity of total UK Covid-19 deaths and the demand for intensive care and ward beds, to the timing and duration of suppression periods during a 500 day period. This is achieved via a SEIR model. Using an expected latent period of 4.5 days and infectious period of 3.8 days, R_0 was first estimated as 3.18 using observed death rates under unmitigated spread and then under the effects of the total lock down (R_0=0.60) of 23 March. The case fatality rate given infection is taken as 1%. Parameter values for mean length of stay and conditional probability of death for ICU and non-ICU hospital admissions are guided by Ferguson et al.(2020). Under unmitigated spread the model predicts around 600,000 deaths in the UK. Starting with one exposed person at time zero and a suppression consistent with an R_0 of 0.60 on day 72, the model predicts around 39,000 deaths for a first wave, but this reduces to around 11,000 if the intervention takes place one week earlier. If the initial suppression were in place until day 200 and then relaxed to an R_0 of 1.5 between days 200 and 300, to be followed by a return to an R_0 of 0.60, the model predicts around 43,000 deaths. This would increase to around 48,000 if the release from the first suppression takes place one week earlier. The results indicate the extreme sensitivity to timing and the consequences of even small delays to suppression and premature relaxation of such measures.


id: cord-343042-9mue4eiv
author: Bertozzi, Giuseppe
date: 2020-05-27
txt: ./txt/cord-343042-9mue4eiv.txt
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url: https://doi.org/10.3389/fped.2020.00229
doi: 10.3389/fped.2020.00229
summary:
  Following these complaints, the autopsy was performed, and subsequent histological examinations revealed the presence of typical and pathognomonic histological findings of acute viral bronchiolitis, whose morphological appearance is poorly reported in the literature. For all these reasons, the autopsy, either clinical or medicolegal, is mandatory in cases of sudden unexpected infant death to manage claim requests because only the histological examinations performed on samples collected during the autopsy can reveal the real cause of death. In fact, in the reported case studies, histopathologic diagnostics identified pathognomonic signs of acute bronchiolitis characterized by edema, congestion, leukocytic infiltration in the bronchiolar wall, leukocytes in the peribronchial interstitial pulmonary space, allowing the identification of the exact cause of death. The analysis of the presented cases shows that the autopsy is mandatory in SUID occurrence, in which the absence of anamnestic data and/or acute clinical signs does not allow to identify the cause of death.

title:
  Mistrial or Misdiagnosis: The Importance of Autopsy and Histopathological Examination in Cases of Sudden Infant Bronchiolitis-Related Death

abstract:
  Pediatrics, among all the branches of medicine, is a sector not particularly affected by a high number of claims. Nevertheless, the economic value of the compensation is significantly high, for example, in cases of children who suffered multiple disabilities following perinatal lesions with a long life expectancy. In Italy, most of the claims for compensation concern surgical pathologies and infections. Among these latter, the dominant role is taken by respiratory tract infections. In this context, the purpose of this manuscript is to present a case series of infant deaths in different emergency-related facilities (ambulances, emergency rooms) denounced by relatives. Following these complaints, the autopsy was performed, and subsequent histological examinations revealed the presence of typical and pathognomonic histological findings of acute viral bronchiolitis, whose morphological appearance is poorly reported in the literature. The analysis of these cases made it possible to highlight the following conclusions: the main problems in diagnosing sudden death causes, especially in childhood, are the rapidity of death and the scarce correlation between the preexistent diseases and of the cause of death itself. For all these reasons, the autopsy, either clinical or medicolegal, is mandatory in cases of sudden unexpected infant death to manage claim requests because only the histological examinations performed on samples collected during the autopsy can reveal the real cause of death.


id: cord-343685-iq3njzoi
author: Martin-Olalla, J. M.
date: 2020-08-07
txt: ./txt/cord-343685-iq3njzoi.txt
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url: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.08.06.20169326
doi: 10.1101/2020.08.06.20169326
summary:
  Spanish and Dutch official records of mortality and population during the 21st century are analyzed to determine the age specific crude death rate in the 2020 spring COVID-19 outbreak. This manuscript takes official records of weekly crude deaths in Spain and Netherlands during the 21st century and population records to ascertain the impact of the COVID-19 in age specific death rates. Next group of columns displays the results in Figure 2 : first the predicted value or reference R for 2020 followed by the death rate excess E = O − R and three statistics related to it: the 95 % confidence interval, the P −score E/R and the z−score computed as the excess E divided by the standard deviation of the residuals. This result is not far from the characteristic time observed for age specific death rates in the past twenty years which are 6.8 a (Spain) and 6.0 a (Netherlands).

title:
  Age disaggregation of crude excess deaths during the 2020 spring COVID-19 outbreak in Spain and Netherlands

abstract:
  Spanish and Dutch official records of mortality and population during the 21st century are analyzed to determine the age specific crude death rate in the 2020 spring COVID-19 outbreak. Excess death rate increases exponentially with age showing a doubling time [5.0,5.6]a (Spain) and [3.9,6.7]a (Netherlands), roughing doubling every five years of increase in age.The effective infection fatality rate in Spain also shows this doubling time. Statistically significant mortality increase is noted above 45a (Spain) and 60a (Netherlands). A statistically significant increase of mortality is also noted in Spain for the youngest age group.


id: cord-344252-6g3zzj0o
title: A Novel Adaptive Deep Learning Model of Covid-19 with focus on mortality reduction strategies
author: Farooq, Junaid
date: 2020-07-21
txt: ./txt/cord-344252-6g3zzj0o.txt
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url: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chaos.2020.110148
doi: 10.1016/j.chaos.2020.110148
summary:
  We employ deep learning to propose an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) based and data stream guided real-time incremental learning algorithm for parameter estimation of a non-intrusive, intelligent, adaptive and online analytical model of Covid-19 disease. In this work, we employ deep learning to propose an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) based real-time online incremental learning technique to estimate parameters of a data stream guided analytical model of Covid-19 to study the transmission dynamics and prevention mechanism for SARS-Cov-2 novel coronavirus in order to aid in optimal policy formulation, efficient decision making, forecasting and simulation. To the best of our knowledge, this paper develops for the first time a deep learning model of epidemic diseases with data science approach in which parameters are intelligently adapted to the new ground realities with fast evolving infection dynamics.

abstract:
  We employ deep learning to propose an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) based and data stream guided real-time incremental learning algorithm for parameter estimation of a non-intrusive, intelligent, adaptive and online analytical model of Covid-19 disease. Modeling and simulation of such problems poses an additional challenge of continuously evolving training data in which the model parameters change over time depending upon external factors. Our main contribution is that in a scenario of continuously evolving training data, unlike typical deep learning techniques, this non-intrusive model eliminates the need to retrain or rebuild the model from scratch every time a new training data set is received. After validating the model, we use it to study the impact of different strategies for epidemic control. Finally, we propose and simulate a strategy of controlled natural immunization through risk based population compartmentalization (PC) wherein the population is divided in Low Risk (LR) and High Risk (HR) compartments based on risk factors (like comorbidities and age) and subjected to different disease transmission dynamics by isolating the HR compartment while allowing the LR compartment to develop natural immunity. Upon release from the preventive isolation, the HR compartment finds itself surrounded by enough number of immunized individuals to prevent spread of infection and thus most of the deaths occurring in this group are avoided.


id: cord-344866-vhuw4gwn
title: Covid-19 as cultural trauma
author: Demertzis, Nicolas
date: 2020-09-10
txt: ./txt/cord-344866-vhuw4gwn.txt
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url: https://doi.org/10.1057/s41290-020-00112-z
doi: 10.1057/s41290-020-00112-z
summary:
  Explaining this, Smelser writes: ''with respect to the dimension of time alone, the traumatic process was truncated… The moment of the attacks to the recognition that they constituted a national trauma was a matter of short days, if not hours…The scope of the trauma and the identity of the victims were established immediately… there was an instant consensus that it was a trauma for everybody, for the nation… there was no significant divergence in the reactions of government and community leaders, the media, and the public in assigning meaning to the events as a national tragedy and outrage…there was little evidence of social division around the trauma'' (Smelser 2004, p. However, despite initial high levels of anxiety the pandemic did not evolve into cultural trauma in either, even with an exceptionally high death rate in Sweden and the great difference in trust in authority that distinguishes the two countries.

abstract:
  This paper has two aims. The first is to introduce the concept of compressed cultural trauma, and the second is to apply the theory of cultural trauma in two case studies of the current covid-19 pandemic, Greece and Sweden. Our central question is whether the pandemic will evolve into a cultural trauma in these two countries. We believe the pandemic presents a challenge to cultural trauma theory, which the idea of compressed trauma is meant to address. We conclude that, while the ongoing covid-19 pandemic has had traumatic consequences in Sweden and Greece, it has not evolved into cultural trauma in either country.


id: cord-344994-68j6ekiy
author: Lyu, M.
date: 2020-09-27
txt: ./txt/cord-344994-68j6ekiy.txt
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mime: text/plain
url: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.09.25.20201905
doi: 10.1101/2020.09.25.20201905
summary:
  In this paper, we propose an enhanced SEIRD (Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered-Death) model with time varying case fatality and transmission rates for confirmed cases and deaths from COVID-19. From the projected fatality data, they 44 estimated hospital utilization with an individual-level microsimulation model based on Due to the limits of testing methods, the long incubation period, and cases with 50 mild or no symptoms and delayed reporting, there is potentially a huge (and unknown) 51 number of unreported cases, the extent to which could affect the future evolution of the 52 epidemic. [15] and [16] In our research we explore use of a concise formulation through which continuously 69 time varying transmission and case fatality rates are modeled with a small number of 70 parameters, which are fit to historical data. Effective reproduction number at any time t, which we define as Rep (t), is the average 234 number of people in a population who are infected per infectious case, where everyone is 235 susceptible to the disease.

title:
  Dynamic Modeling of Reported Covid-19 Cases and Deaths with Continuously Varying Case Fatality and Transmission Rate Functions

abstract:
  In this paper, we propose an enhanced SEIRD (Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered-Death) model with time varying case fatality and transmission rates for confirmed cases and deaths from COVID-19. We show that when case fatalities and transmission rates are represented by simple Sigmoid functions, historical cases and fatalities can be fit with a relative-root-mean-squared-error accuracy on the order of 2% for most American states over the period from initial cases to July 20 (2020). We find that the model is most accurate for states that so far had not shown signs of multiple waves of the disease (such as New York), and least accurate for states where transmission rates increased after initially declining (such as Hawaii). For such states, we propose an alternate multi-phase model. Both the base model and multi-phase model provide a way to explain historical reported cases and deaths with a small set of parameters, which in the future can enable analyses of uncertainty and variations in disease progression across regions.


id: cord-346583-2w39qsld
author: Valev, D.
date: 2020-09-08
txt: ./txt/cord-346583-2w39qsld.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-346583-2w39qsld.txt
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mime: text/plain
url: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.09.05.20188953
doi: 10.1101/2020.09.05.20188953
summary:
  Below the results of statistical studies on the relationship of total COVID-19 cases per 1 million population and deaths per 1 million populations at 28 May 2020 with 10 demographic, economic and social indicators (indices) are shown. The statistical relationships of total COVID-19 Cases and Deaths per million populations in these countries with 10 demographic, economic and social indicators (indices) were studied. The statistical relationships of total COVID-19 Cases and Deaths per million populations in these countries with 10 demographic, economic and social indicators (indices) were studied. These indicators are Life Expectancy, Median Age, Growth Rate, Population Density, GDP PPP per capita, Human Development Index (HDI), Gini index of income equality, Intelligence Quotient (IQ), Corruption Perceptions Index (CPI) and Democracy Index. These indicators are Life Expectancy, Median Age, Growth Rate, Population Density, GDP PPP per capita, Human Development Index (HDI), Gini index of income equality, Intelligence Quotient (IQ), Corruption Perceptions Index (CPI) and Democracy Index.

title:
  Relationships of total COVID-19 cases and deaths with ten demographic, economic and social indicators

abstract:
  We have used data for 45 countries with a population of over 30 millions in which 85.8% of the world's population lives. The statistical relationships of total COVID-19 Cases and Deaths per million populations in these countries with 10 demographic, economic and social indicators (indices) were studied. These indicators are Life Expectancy, Median Age, Growth Rate, Population Density, GDP PPP per capita, Human Development Index (HDI), Gini index of income equality, Intelligence Quotient (IQ), Corruption Perceptions Index (CPI) and Democracy Index. Statistically significant relationships were found with all indicators excluding Gini index and Population Density. We have found that the closest is the relationship of Deaths per million population and total Cases per million population with correlation coefficient R = 0.926. Therefore, it is clear statistically that the more are Cases per million in a country the more are Deaths per million. This confirms the correctness of the timely and effective introduction of the necessary pandemic restrictions in the countries. It is interesting that the close correlations were found of Cases and Deaths per 1 million with a purely economic index like GDP PPP per capita, where R = 0.687 and R = 0.660, respectively. Even more close correlations were found of Cases and Deaths per 1 million with a composite index HDI, where the correlation coefficients reach 0.724 and 0.680, respectively. This paradoxical results show that the richest and well-being countries are most seriously affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. The most probable reason for this is the large percentage of aging population, comorbidity of population with severe chronic diseases and obesity in countries with high GDP and HDI. No less important reason appears the delayed and/or insufficiently effective pandemic restrictions in these countries, which have underestimated the danger of a pandemic in early stage. Other indicators (excluding Gini index and Population Density) also show statistically significant correlations with Cases and Deaths per 1 million with correlation coefficients from 0.432 to 0.634. The countries that deviates the most from the regression lines were shown. Surprisingly, there was no statistically significant correlation between Cases and Deaths with Population Density. The statistical significance of the found correlations determined using Student's t-test was p <0.0001. The countries that deviate the most from both sides of the regression line were shown. It has been shown that the correlations of COVID-19 cases and Deaths with the studied indicators decrease with time. Key words: COVID-19 pandemic; statistics; cases and deaths per million; demographic, economic and social indicators


id: cord-346912-o09qmp7x
title: A Macroeconomic SIR Model for COVID-19
author: Bayraktar, E.
date: 2020-06-23
txt: ./txt/cord-346912-o09qmp7x.txt
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mime: text/plain
url: http://medrxiv.org/cgi/content/short/2020.06.22.20137711v1?rss=1
doi: 10.1101/2020.06.22.20137711
summary:
  We develop an SIR model of the COVID-19 pandemic which explicitly considers herd immunity, behavior-dependent transmission rates, remote workers, and indirect externalities of lockdown. Additionally, if we incorporate a behavior-dependent transmission rate which represents increased personal caution in response to increased infection levels, both output loss and total mortality are lowered. Overall, our model predicts that a lockdown which ends at the arrival of herd immunity, combined with individual actions to slow virus transmission, can reduce total mortality to one-third of the no-lockdown level, while allowing high-risk individuals to leave lockdown well before vaccine arrival. • Increasing the level of remote work reduces the impact of COVID-19 by decreasing both mortality and output loss, even though a longer lockdown is imposed. Recreation of [Ace+20] model (two groups and no herd immunity), parameters from Table 1 Output Loss: 8.9676%, Total Deaths: 1.3121% All rights reserved.

abstract:
  The current COVID-19 pandemic and subsequent lockdowns have highlighted the close and delicate relationship between a country's public health and economic health. Macroeconomic models which use preexisting epidemic models to calculate the impacts of a disease outbreak are therefore extremely useful for policymakers seeking to evaluate the best course of action in such a crisis. We develop an SIR model of the COVID-19 pandemic which explicitly considers herd immunity, behavior-dependent transmission rates, remote workers, and indirect externalities of lockdown. This model is presented as an exit time control problem where the lockdown ends when the population achieves herd immunity, either naturally or via a vaccine. A social planner prescribes separate levels of lockdown for two separate sections of the adult population - those who are low-risk (ages 20-64) and those who are high-risk (ages 65 and over). These levels are determined via optimization of an objective function which assigns a macroeconomic cost to the level of lockdown and the number of deaths. We find that, by ending lockdowns once herd immunity is reached, high-risk individuals are able to leave lockdown significantly before the arrival of a vaccine without causing large increases in mortality. Additionally, if we incorporate a behavior-dependent transmission rate which represents increased personal caution in response to increased infection levels, both output loss and total mortality are lowered. Lockdown efficacy is further increased when there is less interaction between low- and high-risk individuals, and increased remote work decreases output losses. Overall, our model predicts that a lockdown which ends at the arrival of herd immunity, combined with individual actions to slow virus transmission, can reduce total mortality to one-third of the no-lockdown level, while allowing high-risk individuals to leave lockdown well before vaccine arrival.


id: cord-350261-7lkcdisr
title: Who is dying from COVID-19 and when? An Analysis of fatalities in Tamil Nadu, India
author: Asirvatham, Edwin Sam
date: 2020-10-03
txt: ./txt/cord-350261-7lkcdisr.txt
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url: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2213398420302189?v=s5
doi: 10.1016/j.cegh.2020.09.010
summary:
  Understanding the demographic and clinical characteristics of deceased COVID-19 patients; and estimation of time-interval between symptom onset, hospital admission and death could inform public health interventions focusing on preventing mortality due to COVID-19. This study aims to understand the demographic and clinical characteristics of deceased COVID-19 patients; and estimate the time-interval between symptom onset, hospital admission and death, which could inform public health interventions focusing on preventing mortality due to COVID-19. Our study analysed the individual death summaries, and described the demographic and clinical characteristics of deceased COVID-19 patients; and estimated the time intervals between symptoms onset to hospital admission and death, which are critical for developing context and geographicspecific public health interventions focusing on reducing the mortality.

abstract:
  BACKGROUND: As the number of COVID-19 cases continues to rise, public health efforts must focus on preventing avoidable fatalities. Understanding the demographic and clinical characteristics of deceased COVID-19 patients; and estimation of time-interval between symptom onset, hospital admission and death could inform public health interventions focusing on preventing mortality due to COVID-19. METHODS: We obtained COVID-19 death summaries from the official dashboard of the Government of Tamil Nadu, between 10th May and July 10, 2020. Of the 1783 deaths, we included 1761 cases for analysis. RESULTS: The mean age of the deceased was 62.5 years (SD: 13.7). The crude death rate was 2.44 per 100,000 population; the age-specific death rate was 22.72 among above 75 years and 0.02 among less than 14 years, and it was higher among men (3.5 vs 1.4 per 100,000 population). Around 85% reported having any one or more comorbidities; Diabetes (62%), hypertension (49.2%) and CAD (17.5%) were the commonly reported comorbidities. The median time interval between symptom onset and hospital admission was 4 days (IQR: 2, 7); admission and death was 4 days (IQR: 2, 7) with a significant difference between the type of admitting hospital. One-fourth of (24.2%) deaths occurred within a day of hospital admission. CONCLUSION: Elderly, male, people living in densely populated areas and people with underlying comorbidities die disproportionately due to COVID-19. While shorter time-interval between symptom onset and admission is essential, the relatively short time interval between admission and death is a concern and the possible reasons must be evaluated and addressed to reduce avoidable mortality.


id: cord-351941-fgtatt40
title: Simulation‐based estimation of the early spread of COVID‐19 in Iran: actual versus confirmed cases
author: Ghaffarzadegan, Navid
date: 2020-07-06
txt: ./txt/cord-351941-fgtatt40.txt
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mime: text/plain
url: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32834468/
doi: 10.1002/sdr.1655
summary:
  Estimates using data up to March 20th, 2020, point to 916,000 (90% UI: 508 K, 1.5 M) cumulative cases and 15,485 (90% UI: 8.4 K, 25.8 K) total deaths, numbers an order of magnitude higher than official statistics. The current paper focuses on using a standard dynamic epidemiological model as a tool for incorporating various sources of data into a unified estimation of the actual trajectory of disease, applying the method to COVID-19 outbreak in Iran. We also use unofficial data points including four observations about the number of Iranian passengers diagnosed with COVID-19 upon arrival in international airports, and three estimates aggregated by healthcare providers in Iran and reported by BBC and Iran International news agencies about total cases of death from COVID-19. We define a likelihood function for change over time (net-inflow) of official reports on cumulative death, recovered and infection assuming they are count events drawn from model-predicted rates (Poisson distribution).

abstract:
  Understanding the state of the COVID‐19 pandemic relies on infection and mortality data. Yet official data may underestimate the actual cases due to limited symptoms and testing capacity. We offer a simulation‐based approach which combines various sources of data to estimate the magnitude of outbreak. Early in the epidemic we applied the method to Iran's case, an epicenter of the pandemic in winter 2020. Estimates using data up to March 20th, 2020, point to 916,000 (90% UI: 508 K, 1.5 M) cumulative cases and 15,485 (90% UI: 8.4 K, 25.8 K) total deaths, numbers an order of magnitude higher than official statistics. Our projections suggest that absent strong sustaining of contact reductions the epidemic may resurface. We also use data and studies from the succeeding months to reflect on the quality of original estimates. Our proposed approach can be used for similar cases elsewhere to provide a more accurate, early, estimate of outbreak state. © 2020 System Dynamics Society


id: cord-354372-vfvnjmv1
title: The autopsy at the time of SARS-CoV-2: Protocol and lessons
author: Carpenito, L.
date: 2020-07-04
txt: ./txt/cord-354372-vfvnjmv1.txt
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mime: text/plain
url: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32653819/
doi: 10.1016/j.anndiagpath.2020.151562
summary:
  In the current pandemic scenario of SARS-CoV-2, the autopsy appears to be a crucial tool to clarify the virus target cells in human, the frameworks of organ damage and the biological mechanisms that lead to death or allow the patient to heal. To minimize the dispersion of blood and biological fluids, it is essential to always operate in the area of the autopsy table: the viscera removed from the body must be placed either on the iron section table, placed above the patient''s thighs, or in a large tray with high steel edges resting on the patient''s legs, during weighing, macroscopic examination and sampling of the viscera. Given the multiple clinical findings of neurological symptoms in patients infected with SARS-CoV-2 [22, 23] , it appears indispensable to perform the evisceration and examination of the brain and brainstem, for the completeness of the autopsy and for the very few morphological data available today on the central nervous system.

abstract:
  A new viral disease named COVID-19 has recently turned into a pandemic. Compared to a common viral pneumonia it may evolve in an atypical way, causing the rapid death of the patient. For over two centuries, autopsy has been recognized as a fundamental diagnostic technique, particularly for new or little-known diseases. To date, it is often considered obsolete giving the inadequacy to provide samples of a quality appropriate to the sophisticated diagnostic techniques available today. This is probably one of the reasons why during this pandemic autopsies were often requested only in few cases, late and discouraged, if not prohibited, by more than one nation. This is in contrast with our firm conviction: to understand the unknown we must look at it directly and with our own eyes. This has led us to implement an autopsy procedure that allows the beginning of the autopsy shortly after death (within 1–2 h) and its rapid execution, also including sampling for ultrastructural and molecular investigations. In our experience, the tissue sample collected for diagnosis and research were of quality similar to biopsy or surgical resections. This procedure was performed ensuring staff and environmental safety. We want to propose our experience, our main qualitative results and a few general considerations, hoping that they can be an incentive to use autopsy with a new procedure adjusted to match the diagnostic challenges of the third millennium.


