id	author	title	date	pages	extension	mime	words	sentences	flesch	summary	cache	txt
cord-129016-i0096vhj	Simha, Ashutosh	A simple Stochastic SIR model for COVID 19 Infection Dynamics for Karnataka: Learning from Europe	2020-03-26		.txt	text/plain	1421	96	61	In this short note we model the region-wise trends of the evolution to COVID-19 infections using a stochastic SIR model. We first derive the parameters of the model from the available daily data from European regions based on a 24-day history of infections, recoveries and deaths. This parameter is a lumped constants which is meant to account for: (a) the population size, (b) reproduction number R 0 of COVID-19, and (c) exposure-factor (which depends on mobility, precautionary measures, etc.). The parameters of the SIR model were optimized based on the data obtained for different European regions and India. The SIR model has been simulated and the parameters have been optimized based on the infection trends obtained for European countries for 24 days, and India for 8 days (after 15 th March, when the infections started to show an exponential trend). The Italy and average European parameters have been used to project the future trends for the state of Karnataka.	./cache/cord-129016-i0096vhj.txt	./txt/cord-129016-i0096vhj.txt