key: cord-259236-8ezfke9z authors: Baruah, H. K. title: An Empirical Inference of the Severity of Resurgence of COVID-19 in Europe date: 2020-10-23 journal: nan DOI: 10.1101/2020.10.21.20213868 sha: doc_id: 259236 cord_uid: 8ezfke9z In Europe the Corona Virus spread had started to retard months ago, but after some time it has started to accelerate again. In this article, we are going to analyze the current COVID-19 spread patterns in Italy, the UK, Germany, Russia, Spain and France. We have found that the current spread has perhaps been underestimated as just the second wave. As per our analysis, as on 7 October the resurgence is much more vigorous than the first wave of spread of the disease. It is going to be most serious in Russia, followed by Italy, Germany and the UK, while in Spain and France the patterns are yet to take inferable shapes. In the European countries the second wave of COVID-19 has been observed to be much more serious than the first one. The data clearly reflect resurgence of the disease, but how serious the matter is can be judged only after a proper data analysis. In this article, we are going to show how to infer empirically the severity of the spread. We shall show that the COVID-19 situation in Europe is indeed very serious. A look at the daily increase in the cumulative totals of the COVID-19 cases in the European countries mentioned above and the World gives us an apparently clear picture how much Europe is contributing to the daily increase in the total number of cases in the World. For example, on October 7 the increase in the World total were 348967 out of which the UK contributed 14162 (4.06%) cases, Italy contributed 3678 (1.11%) cases, Germany contributed 3994 (1.14%) cases, France contributed 18746 (5.37%) cases, Russia contributed 11115 (3.18%) cases and Spain contributed 10574 (3.03%) cases. The total increase on that day in these six European countries were 62269 (17.84%) to the total increase in the World. On that same day, India which is currently contributing the maximum to the daily increase in the World contributed 78809 (22.58%) cases while the USA on that day contributed 49398 (14.15%) cases. Therefore it can be seen that on October 7, these six European countries together had contributed more to the World total than the USA although the contribution was less than that from India. However, we have to note that in India and the USA, the spread is retarding while in these six European countries that kind of retardations took place months ago, and thereafter it has started to move towards resurgence -the so called second wave. Indeed the figures for one single day may actually be misleading. We shall put forward a numerical analysis of the spread data for a period of 15 days from 23 September to 7 October. We would like to mention at this point that the current growth curves of the disease in these six European countries are obviously not like the curve assumed in the compartmental epidemiological models [1, 2. 3] . At the start of an epidemic, the classical compartmental models do not presume a change from a retarding state to an accelerating state. It is apparent from the graphs published by Worldometers.info [4] that the spread patterns are of the exponential type in the six European countries mentioned above. We shall consider the total number of cases in these six countries from 22 September to 7 starts to follow a reducing trend. It was earlier observed that a change from a nearly exponential pattern to a nearly logarithmic pattern took place in Italy [5] months ago. In the other five European countries too such retardation must have followed the nearly logarithmic pattern. It was observed [6, 7, 8, 9, 10 is really useful. We now proceed to analyze the recent data on the cumulative total number of COVID-19 cases in the six European countries mentioned above. We shall now put forward our empirical analysis of the COVI-19 spread patterns in the six European countries concerned. In Table- showing an unusual increasing trend, and such a thing is not assumed in any classical epidemiological mathematical model. . CC-BY-ND 4.0 International license It is made available under a is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. The copyright holder for this preprint this version posted October 23, 2020. ; https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.10.21.20213868 doi: medRxiv preprint . CC-BY-ND 4.0 International license It is made available under a is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. The copyright holder for this preprint this version posted October 23, 2020. . CC-BY-ND 4.0 International license It is made available under a is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. The copyright holder for this preprint this version posted October 23, 2020. ; https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.10.21.20213868 doi: medRxiv preprint In Russia, have shown a straight increasing trend which is very unusual in the growth of an epidemic. How long it would continue to have such an increasing trend is not possible to judge. A diagrammatic representation has been shown in Fig. 4 . . CC-BY-ND 4.0 International license It is made available under a is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. The copyright holder for this preprint this version posted October 23, 2020. ; https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.10.21.20213868 doi: medRxiv preprint In Spain, Table-5, the situation is different from that in Italy, the UK, Germany and Russia. In Spain, no increasing trend could be seen, but the values are not showing any constancy and they are not showing any decreasing trend as well. The diagrammatic representation has been shown in Fig. 5 . . CC-BY-ND 4.0 International license It is made available under a is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. The copyright holder for this preprint this version posted October 23, 2020. ; https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.10.21.20213868 doi: medRxiv preprint In France too, have been found to be nowhere near any constant value. The values are not increasing, but they are not showing any decreasing trend also. The diagrammatic representation has been shown in Fig. 6 . . CC-BY-ND 4.0 International license It is made available under a is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. The copyright holder for this preprint this version posted October 23, 2020. show a linearly reducing trend with respect to time until a retarding phase starts and in that phase the spread pattern becomes nearly logarithmic. In the standard epidemiological models also this kind of a growth pattern is assumed. However, the pattern in the second wave of the epidemic is different in the sense that ∆ ‫ݖ‬ ሺ ‫ݐ‬ ሻ in these six European countries has been showing an increasing trend instead of a decreasing trend as was observed in earlier studies. There can be only one explanation of this phenomenon. In the first wave, zሺ‫ݐ‬ሻ was of first degree but in the second is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. (which was not certified by peer review) The copyright holder for this preprint this version posted October 23, 2020. ; https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.10.21.20213868 doi: medRxiv preprint A Contribution to the Mathematical Theory of Epidemics Contributions to the Mathematical Theory of Epidemics II. The Problem of Endemicity Contributions to the Mathematical Theory of Epidemics III. Further Studies of the Problem of Endemicity Total corona virus cases in India, Publishing Date The Covid-19 Spread Patterns in Italy and India: A Comparison of the Current Situations A Simple Method of Finding an Approximate Pattern of the COVID-19 On Reliability of the COVID-19 Forecasts , but this kind of an exponential growth was not seen in the first wave which is why it was observed that the values ofwere showing a linearly decreasing trend earlier.Therefore we can empirically infer that as long as unusual. In effect, the resurgence is following a much faster growth pattern different from what was seen to be followed when COVID-19 had appeared. The COVID-19 situation in Europe is showing an unusual trend. How long would the situation remain in this way cannot be said now. But one thing can be said with certainty that the situation has become explosive. In Russia in particular, the growth is not following the standard epidemiological growth pattern. In Italy, Germany and the UK too, the growth is very unusual. In Spain and France, the situation is uncertain as yet. We conclude that the growth pattern of the epidemic in the current resurgence in the six European countries concerned is of a type very different from the nearly exponential type followed in the accelerating phase in the first wave.