id	author	title	date	pages	extension	mime	words	sentences	flesch	summary	cache	txt
cord-262046-bb8ekgdm	Unlu, E.	Epidemic analysis of COVID-19 Outbreak and Counter-Measures in France	2020-05-01		.txt	text/plain	2879	160	54	We propose to use a variant of the well known SEIR model to analyze the spread of COVID-19 in France, by taking in to account the national lockdown declared in March 11, 2020. As number of confirmed cases shall not be fully representative due to low testing especially in the first phases of the outbreak, we present that basing the model optimisation on the fatalities can provide legitimate results. Note that, with this approach the initial state values are also defined in terms of proportion of fatalities, hence they also are parameters of the PSO optimization. Using the developed model we predict that if lockdown continues with strict measures, the total number of COVID-19 fatalities should topple below 50,000 (which is currently around 20,000) by late August, 2020; where the effects of the epidemic start to significantly diminish.	./cache/cord-262046-bb8ekgdm.txt	./txt/cord-262046-bb8ekgdm.txt