id author title date pages extension mime words sentences flesch summary cache txt cord-288079-rr8h5dgy Prague, Melanie Population modeling of early COVID-19 epidemic dynamics in French regions and estimation of the lockdown impact on infection rate 2020-04-24 .txt text/plain 8628 522 58 title: Population modeling of early COVID-19 epidemic dynamics in French regions and estimation of the lockdown impact on infection rate Combining several French public datasets on the early dynamics of the epidemic, we estimate region-specific key parameters conditionally on this mechanistic model through Stochastic Approximation Expectation Maximization (SAEM) optimization using Monolix software. While traditional compartment models do not account for spatiality, we propose to take it into account by: i) modeling the epidemic at a finer, more homogeneous geographical scale (this is particularly important once lockdown is in place); ii) by using a population approach with random effects across French regions which allows each region to have relatively different dynamics while taking all information into account for the estimation of model parameters iii) aligning the initial starting time of the epidemic for all regions. ./cache/cord-288079-rr8h5dgy.txt ./txt/cord-288079-rr8h5dgy.txt