id	author	title	date	pages	extension	mime	words	sentences	flesch	summary	cache	txt
cord-294815-mhqe3xjz	Küchenhoff, H.	Analysis of the early Covid-19 epidemic curve in Germany by regression models with change points	2020-10-30		.txt	text/plain	4049	226	57	title: Analysis of the early Covid-19 epidemic curve in Germany by regression models with change points We apply the segmented regression model to time series of the estimated daily numbers of infections for Bavaria and Germany. Since the back propagation algorithm yields an estimate for the expected values of the number of daily infections and does so by inducing a smoothing effect, as a sensitivity analysis for the location of the breakpoints, we also apply the model to the time series of the daily number of disease onsets. In Figure 1 , the three different time series of daily cases (reported, disease onset and estimated infection date) are presented. For the Bavarian data on disease onset, the model with K = 4 change points gives the best result with an estimate of the over-dispersion parameter of 3.8, i.e., the variance of Y t is 3.8 times higher than the value of Var(Y t ) = E(Y t ) otherwise expected under the assumption of the Poisson regression model.	./cache/cord-294815-mhqe3xjz.txt	./txt/cord-294815-mhqe3xjz.txt