id	author	title	date	pages	extension	mime	words	sentences	flesch	summary	cache	txt
cord-326749-t727v0zt	Lee, P.	Probabilistic risk assessment of the energy saving shortfall in energy performance contracting projects–A case study	2013-07-16		.txt	text/plain	7394	376	49	This paper proposes a simulation-based method to evaluate the probability of energy saving shortfall taking into account the variations in the influential parameters, including weather conditions, occupancy, operating hours, thermostat set-point, etc., during the contract period. Empirical data is also used to develop the probability distribution functions for the identified parameters to simulate the actual yearly variations in the post-retrofit conditions. This paper aims at developing a simulation-based method to evaluate the probability of energy saving shortfall taking into account the variations in the influential parameters. Monte Carlo simulation is performed to generate a common set of post-retrofit condition data based on the PDF of the selected parameters. A risk analysis tool based on Monte Carlo simulation (@Risk) [44] was utilised to generate 10,000 common data sets of 7 input parameters for two calibrated building energy models.	./cache/cord-326749-t727v0zt.txt	./txt/cord-326749-t727v0zt.txt