id	author	title	date	pages	extension	mime	words	sentences	flesch	summary	cache	txt
cord-348636-qqcb85uk	Lekone, Phenyo E.	Bayesian Analysis of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome: The 2003 Hong Kong Epidemic	2008-07-09		.txt	text/plain	4878	286	62	This paper analyzes data arising from a Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) epidemic in Hong Kong in 2003 involving 1755 cases. Applying the method to SARS data from Hong Kong, a value of 3.88 with a posterior standard deviation of 0.09 was estimated for the basic reproduction number. A reduction in the transmission parameter during the course of the epidemic forced the effective reproduction number to cross the threshold value of one, seven days after control interventions were introduced. These parameters were obtained using maximum likelihood estimation methods assuming a gamma distribution for each period with allowance for censoring due to incomplete observation. A simple model that captures the form of distributions of epidemiological determinants has been introduced to estimate the basic reproduction number and to assess the effect of control interventions introduced during the course of the epidemic.	./cache/cord-348636-qqcb85uk.txt	./txt/cord-348636-qqcb85uk.txt