id sid tid token lemma pos cord-348636-qqcb85uk 1 1 key key JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 1 2 : : : cord-348636-qqcb85uk 1 3 cord-348636-qqcb85uk cord-348636-qqcb85uk NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 1 4 authors author NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 1 5 : : : cord-348636-qqcb85uk 1 6 Lekone Lekone NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 1 7 , , , cord-348636-qqcb85uk 1 8 Phenyo Phenyo NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 1 9 E. E. NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 1 10 title title NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 1 11 : : : cord-348636-qqcb85uk 1 12 Bayesian Bayesian NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 1 13 Analysis Analysis NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 1 14 of of IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 1 15 Severe severe JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 1 16 Acute acute JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 1 17 Respiratory Respiratory NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 1 18 Syndrome syndrome NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 1 19 : : : cord-348636-qqcb85uk 2 1 The the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 2 2 2003 2003 CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 2 3 Hong Hong NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 2 4 Kong Kong NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 2 5 Epidemic Epidemic NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 2 6 date date NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 2 7 : : : cord-348636-qqcb85uk 2 8 2008 2008 CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 2 9 - - SYM cord-348636-qqcb85uk 2 10 07 07 CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 2 11 - - HYPH cord-348636-qqcb85uk 2 12 09 09 CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 2 13 journal journal NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 2 14 : : : cord-348636-qqcb85uk 3 1 Biom Biom NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 3 2 J J NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 3 3 DOI DOI NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 3 4 : : : cord-348636-qqcb85uk 4 1 10.1002 10.1002 CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 4 2 / / SYM cord-348636-qqcb85uk 4 3 bimj.200710431 bimj.200710431 NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 4 4 sha sha NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 4 5 : : : cord-348636-qqcb85uk 4 6 e83b228bac39670fef9af8d9142b4290b7de4262 e83b228bac39670fef9af8d9142b4290b7de4262 NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 4 7 doc_id doc_id CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 4 8 : : : cord-348636-qqcb85uk 4 9 348636 348636 CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 4 10 cord_uid cord_uid NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 4 11 : : : cord-348636-qqcb85uk 5 1 qqcb85uk qqcb85uk NFP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 5 2 This this DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 5 3 paper paper NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 5 4 analyzes analyze VBZ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 5 5 data datum NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 5 6 arising arise VBG cord-348636-qqcb85uk 5 7 from from IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 5 8 a a DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 5 9 Severe severe JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 5 10 Acute acute JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 5 11 Respiratory respiratory JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 5 12 Syndrome Syndrome NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 5 13 ( ( -LRB- cord-348636-qqcb85uk 5 14 SARS SARS NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 5 15 ) ) -RRB- cord-348636-qqcb85uk 5 16 epidemic epidemic NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 5 17 in in IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 5 18 Hong Hong NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 5 19 Kong Kong NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 5 20 in in IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 5 21 2003 2003 CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 5 22 involving involve VBG cord-348636-qqcb85uk 5 23 1755 1755 CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 5 24 cases case NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 5 25 . . . cord-348636-qqcb85uk 6 1 A a DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 6 2 discrete discrete JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 6 3 time time NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 6 4 stochastic stochastic JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 6 5 model model NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 6 6 that that WDT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 6 7 uses use VBZ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 6 8 a a DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 6 9 back‐projection back‐projection NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 6 10 approach approach NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 6 11 is be VBZ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 6 12 proposed propose VBN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 6 13 . . . cord-348636-qqcb85uk 7 1 Markov Markov NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 7 2 Chain Chain NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 7 3 Monte Monte NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 7 4 Carlo Carlo NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 7 5 ( ( -LRB- cord-348636-qqcb85uk 7 6 MCMC MCMC NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 7 7 ) ) -RRB- cord-348636-qqcb85uk 7 8 methods method NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 7 9 are be VBP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 7 10 developed develop VBN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 7 11 for for IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 7 12 estimation estimation NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 7 13 of of IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 7 14 model model NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 7 15 parameters parameter NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 7 16 . . . cord-348636-qqcb85uk 8 1 The the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 8 2 algorithm algorithm NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 8 3 is be VBZ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 8 4 further further RB cord-348636-qqcb85uk 8 5 extended extend VBN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 8 6 to to TO cord-348636-qqcb85uk 8 7 integrate integrate VB cord-348636-qqcb85uk 8 8 numerically numerically RB cord-348636-qqcb85uk 8 9 over over IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 8 10 unobserved unobserved JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 8 11 variables variable NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 8 12 of of IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 8 13 the the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 8 14 model model NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 8 15 . . . cord-348636-qqcb85uk 9 1 Applying apply VBG cord-348636-qqcb85uk 9 2 the the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 9 3 method method NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 9 4 to to IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 9 5 SARS SARS NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 9 6 data datum NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 9 7 from from IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 9 8 Hong Hong NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 9 9 Kong Kong NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 9 10 , , , cord-348636-qqcb85uk 9 11 a a DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 9 12 value value NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 9 13 of of IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 9 14 3.88 3.88 CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 9 15 with with IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 9 16 a a DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 9 17 posterior posterior JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 9 18 standard standard JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 9 19 deviation deviation NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 9 20 of of IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 9 21 0.09 0.09 CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 9 22 was be VBD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 9 23 estimated estimate VBN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 9 24 for for IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 9 25 the the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 9 26 basic basic JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 9 27 reproduction reproduction NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 9 28 number number NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 9 29 . . . cord-348636-qqcb85uk 10 1 An an DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 10 2 estimate estimate NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 10 3 of of IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 10 4 the the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 10 5 transmission transmission NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 10 6 parameter parameter NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 10 7 at at IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 10 8 the the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 10 9 beginning beginning NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 10 10 of of IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 10 11 the the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 10 12 epidemic epidemic NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 10 13 was be VBD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 10 14 also also RB cord-348636-qqcb85uk 10 15 obtained obtain VBN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 10 16 as as IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 10 17 0.149 0.149 CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 10 18 with with IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 10 19 a a DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 10 20 posterior posterior JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 10 21 standard standard JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 10 22 deviation deviation NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 10 23 of of IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 10 24 0.003 0.003 CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 10 25 . . . cord-348636-qqcb85uk 11 1 A a DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 11 2 reduction reduction NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 11 3 in in IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 11 4 the the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 11 5 transmission transmission NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 11 6 parameter parameter NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 11 7 during during IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 11 8 the the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 11 9 course course NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 11 10 of of IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 11 11 the the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 11 12 epidemic epidemic NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 11 13 forced force VBN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 11 14 the the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 11 15 effective effective JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 11 16 reproduction reproduction NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 11 17 number number NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 11 18 to to TO cord-348636-qqcb85uk 11 19 cross cross VB cord-348636-qqcb85uk 11 20 the the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 11 21 threshold threshold NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 11 22 value value NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 11 23 of of IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 11 24 one one CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 11 25 , , , cord-348636-qqcb85uk 11 26 seven seven CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 11 27 days day NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 11 28 after after IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 11 29 control control NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 11 30 interventions intervention NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 11 31 were be VBD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 11 32 introduced introduce VBN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 11 33 . . . cord-348636-qqcb85uk 12 1 At at IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 12 2 the the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 12 3 end end NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 12 4 of of IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 12 5 the the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 12 6 epidemic epidemic NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 12 7 , , , cord-348636-qqcb85uk 12 8 the the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 12 9 effective effective JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 12 10 reproduction reproduction NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 12 11 number number NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 12 12 was be VBD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 12 13 as as RB cord-348636-qqcb85uk 12 14 low low JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 12 15 as as IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 12 16 0.001 0.001 CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 12 17 suggesting suggest VBG cord-348636-qqcb85uk 12 18 that that IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 12 19 the the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 12 20 epidemic epidemic NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 12 21 was be VBD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 12 22 brought bring VBN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 12 23 under under IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 12 24 control control NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 12 25 by by IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 12 26 the the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 12 27 intervention intervention NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 12 28 measures measure NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 12 29 introduced introduce VBN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 12 30 . . . cord-348636-qqcb85uk 13 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-348636-qqcb85uk 13 2 © © NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 13 3 2008 2008 CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 13 4 WILEY‐VCH wiley‐vch CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 13 5 Verlag Verlag NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 13 6 GmbH GmbH NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 13 7 & & CC cord-348636-qqcb85uk 13 8 Co. Co. NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 13 9 KGaA KGaA NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 13 10 , , , cord-348636-qqcb85uk 13 11 Weinheim Weinheim NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 13 12 ) ) -RRB- cord-348636-qqcb85uk 14 1 Severe severe JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 14 2 Acute acute JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 14 3 Respiratory Respiratory NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 14 4 Syndrome Syndrome NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 14 5 , , , cord-348636-qqcb85uk 14 6 commonly commonly RB cord-348636-qqcb85uk 14 7 known know VBN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 14 8 as as IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 14 9 SARS SARS NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 14 10 , , , cord-348636-qqcb85uk 14 11 is be VBZ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 14 12 a a DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 14 13 new new JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 14 14 viral viral JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 14 15 respiratory respiratory JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 14 16 illness illness NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 14 17 caused cause VBN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 14 18 by by IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 14 19 a a DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 14 20 coronavirus coronavirus NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 14 21 , , , cord-348636-qqcb85uk 14 22 called call VBN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 14 23 SARS SARS NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 14 24 - - HYPH cord-348636-qqcb85uk 14 25 associated associate VBN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 14 26 coronavirus coronavirus NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 14 27 ( ( -LRB- cord-348636-qqcb85uk 14 28 SARS SARS NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 14 29 - - HYPH cord-348636-qqcb85uk 14 30 CoV CoV NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 14 31 ) ) -RRB- cord-348636-qqcb85uk 14 32 ( ( -LRB- cord-348636-qqcb85uk 15 1 Leung Leung NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 15 2 et et NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 15 3 al al NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 15 4 . . NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 15 5 , , , cord-348636-qqcb85uk 15 6 2004 2004 CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 15 7 ) ) -RRB- cord-348636-qqcb85uk 15 8 . . . cord-348636-qqcb85uk 16 1 The the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 16 2 disease disease NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 16 3 was be VBD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 16 4 first first RB cord-348636-qqcb85uk 16 5 identified identify VBN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 16 6 in in IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 16 7 China China NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 16 8 's 's POS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 16 9 southern southern JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 16 10 province province NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 16 11 of of IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 16 12 Guangdong Guangdong NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 16 13 on on IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 16 14 16 16 CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 16 15 November November NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 16 16 , , , cord-348636-qqcb85uk 16 17 2002 2002 CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 16 18 and and CC cord-348636-qqcb85uk 16 19 then then RB cord-348636-qqcb85uk 16 20 spread spread VB cord-348636-qqcb85uk 16 21 rapidly rapidly RB cord-348636-qqcb85uk 16 22 throughout throughout IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 16 23 the the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 16 24 world world NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 16 25 via via IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 16 26 air air NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 16 27 travel travel NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 16 28 with with IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 16 29 the the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 16 30 last last JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 16 31 known know VBN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 16 32 case case NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 16 33 with with IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 16 34 a a DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 16 35 symptom symptom NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 16 36 onset onset NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 16 37 date date NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 16 38 of of IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 16 39 5 5 CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 16 40 July July NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 16 41 identified identify VBN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 16 42 in in IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 16 43 Taiwan Taiwan NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 16 44 ( ( -LRB- cord-348636-qqcb85uk 16 45 Chowell Chowell NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 16 46 et et FW cord-348636-qqcb85uk 16 47 al al NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 16 48 . . NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 16 49 , , , cord-348636-qqcb85uk 16 50 2003 2003 CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 16 51 ) ) -RRB- cord-348636-qqcb85uk 16 52 . . . cord-348636-qqcb85uk 17 1 It -PRON- PRP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 17 2 is be VBZ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 17 3 reported report VBN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 17 4 that that IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 17 5 the the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 17 6 epidemic epidemic NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 17 7 infected infect VBN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 17 8 8098 8098 CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 17 9 cases case NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 17 10 ( ( -LRB- cord-348636-qqcb85uk 17 11 with with IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 17 12 774 774 CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 17 13 deaths death NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 17 14 ) ) -RRB- cord-348636-qqcb85uk 17 15 , , , cord-348636-qqcb85uk 17 16 from from IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 17 17 a a DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 17 18 total total NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 17 19 of of IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 17 20 28 28 CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 17 21 countries country NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 17 22 ( ( -LRB- cord-348636-qqcb85uk 17 23 Chau Chau NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 17 24 and and CC cord-348636-qqcb85uk 17 25 Yip Yip NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 17 26 , , , cord-348636-qqcb85uk 17 27 2003a 2003a CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 17 28 ) ) -RRB- cord-348636-qqcb85uk 17 29 . . . cord-348636-qqcb85uk 18 1 A a DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 18 2 large large JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 18 3 proportion proportion NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 18 4 of of IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 18 5 the the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 18 6 morbidity morbidity NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 18 7 and and CC cord-348636-qqcb85uk 18 8 the the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 18 9 mortality mortality NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 18 10 was be VBD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 18 11 borne bear VBN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 18 12 by by IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 18 13 Hong Hong NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 18 14 Kong Kong NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 18 15 with with IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 18 16 a a DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 18 17 total total JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 18 18 number number NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 18 19 of of IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 18 20 1755 1755 CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 18 21 cases case NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 18 22 and and CC cord-348636-qqcb85uk 18 23 302 302 CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 18 24 deaths death NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 18 25 occuring occur VBG cord-348636-qqcb85uk 18 26 between between IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 18 27 15 15 CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 18 28 February February NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 18 29 2003 2003 CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 18 30 and and CC cord-348636-qqcb85uk 18 31 31 31 CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 18 32 May May NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 18 33 2003 2003 CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 19 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-348636-qqcb85uk 19 2 Leung Leung NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 19 3 et et NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 19 4 al al NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 19 5 . . NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 19 6 , , , cord-348636-qqcb85uk 19 7 2004 2004 CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 19 8 ) ) -RRB- cord-348636-qqcb85uk 19 9 . . . cord-348636-qqcb85uk 20 1 Some some DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 20 2 of of IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 20 3 the the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 20 4 measures measure NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 20 5 introduced introduce VBN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 20 6 by by IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 20 7 the the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 20 8 Hong Hong NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 20 9 Kong Kong NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 20 10 authorities authority NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 20 11 to to TO cord-348636-qqcb85uk 20 12 combat combat VB cord-348636-qqcb85uk 20 13 the the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 20 14 disease disease NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 20 15 include include VBP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 20 16 among among IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 20 17 others other NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 20 18 , , , cord-348636-qqcb85uk 20 19 public public JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 20 20 service service NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 20 21 announcements announcement NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 20 22 , , , cord-348636-qqcb85uk 20 23 addition addition NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 20 24 of of IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 20 25 SARS SARS NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 20 26 to to IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 20 27 the the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 20 28 list list NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 20 29 of of IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 20 30 notifiable notifiable JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 20 31 diseases disease NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 20 32 , , , cord-348636-qqcb85uk 20 33 a a DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 20 34 2-week 2-week CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 20 35 suspension suspension NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 20 36 of of IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 20 37 schools school NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 20 38 , , , cord-348636-qqcb85uk 20 39 introduction introduction NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 20 40 of of IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 20 41 health health NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 20 42 declarations declaration NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 20 43 for for IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 20 44 incoming incoming JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 20 45 residents resident NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 20 46 and and CC cord-348636-qqcb85uk 20 47 visitors visitor NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 20 48 , , , cord-348636-qqcb85uk 20 49 isolation isolation NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 20 50 of of IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 20 51 cases case NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 20 52 and and CC cord-348636-qqcb85uk 20 53 home home NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 20 54 quarantining quarantining NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 20 55 of of IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 20 56 close close JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 20 57 contacts contact NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 20 58 and and CC cord-348636-qqcb85uk 20 59 restrictions restriction NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 20 60 on on IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 20 61 their -PRON- PRP$ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 20 62 travel travel NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 20 63 out out IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 20 64 of of IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 20 65 the the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 20 66 country country NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 20 67 ( ( -LRB- cord-348636-qqcb85uk 20 68 Chau Chau NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 20 69 and and CC cord-348636-qqcb85uk 20 70 Yip Yip NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 20 71 , , , cord-348636-qqcb85uk 20 72 2003a 2003a CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 20 73 ) ) -RRB- cord-348636-qqcb85uk 20 74 . . . cord-348636-qqcb85uk 21 1 Using use VBG cord-348636-qqcb85uk 21 2 discrete discrete JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 21 3 time time NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 21 4 data datum NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 21 5 on on IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 21 6 an an DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 21 7 ongoing ongoing JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 21 8 SARS SARS NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 21 9 epidemic epidemic NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 21 10 in in IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 21 11 Hong Hong NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 21 12 Kong Kong NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 21 13 , , , cord-348636-qqcb85uk 21 14 Donnelly Donnelly NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 21 15 et et NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 21 16 al al NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 21 17 . . . cord-348636-qqcb85uk 22 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-348636-qqcb85uk 22 2 2003 2003 CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 22 3 ) ) -RRB- cord-348636-qqcb85uk 22 4 estimated estimate VBD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 22 5 the the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 22 6 mean mean NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 22 7 and and CC cord-348636-qqcb85uk 22 8 variance variance NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 22 9 of of IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 22 10 the the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 22 11 incubation incubation NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 22 12 time time NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 22 13 , , , cord-348636-qqcb85uk 22 14 time time NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 22 15 from from IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 22 16 admission admission NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 22 17 to to IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 22 18 discharge discharge NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 22 19 and and CC cord-348636-qqcb85uk 22 20 time time NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 22 21 from from IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 22 22 admission admission NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 22 23 to to IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 22 24 death death NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 22 25 . . . cord-348636-qqcb85uk 23 1 These these DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 23 2 parameters parameter NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 23 3 were be VBD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 23 4 obtained obtain VBN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 23 5 using use VBG cord-348636-qqcb85uk 23 6 maximum maximum JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 23 7 likelihood likelihood NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 23 8 estimation estimation NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 23 9 methods method NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 23 10 assuming assume VBG cord-348636-qqcb85uk 23 11 a a DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 23 12 gamma gamma NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 23 13 distribution distribution NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 23 14 for for IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 23 15 each each DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 23 16 period period NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 23 17 with with IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 23 18 allowance allowance NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 23 19 for for IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 23 20 censoring censor VBG cord-348636-qqcb85uk 23 21 due due IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 23 22 to to IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 23 23 incomplete incomplete JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 23 24 observation observation NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 23 25 . . . cord-348636-qqcb85uk 24 1 The the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 24 2 estimate estimate NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 24 3 of of IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 24 4 the the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 24 5 mean mean NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 24 6 and and CC cord-348636-qqcb85uk 24 7 variance variance NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 24 8 of of IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 24 9 the the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 24 10 incubation incubation NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 24 11 period period NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 24 12 was be VBD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 24 13 6.37 6.37 CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 24 14 days day NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 24 15 and and CC cord-348636-qqcb85uk 24 16 16.69 16.69 CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 24 17 days day NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 24 18 , , , cord-348636-qqcb85uk 24 19 respectively respectively RB cord-348636-qqcb85uk 24 20 . . . cord-348636-qqcb85uk 25 1 The the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 25 2 estimated estimated JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 25 3 mean mean NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 25 4 and and CC cord-348636-qqcb85uk 25 5 variance variance NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 25 6 of of IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 25 7 the the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 25 8 admission admission NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 25 9 - - HYPH cord-348636-qqcb85uk 25 10 to to IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 25 11 - - HYPH cord-348636-qqcb85uk 25 12 death death NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 25 13 time time NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 25 14 was be VBD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 25 15 35.9 35.9 CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 25 16 days day NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 25 17 and and CC cord-348636-qqcb85uk 25 18 572.9 572.9 CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 25 19 days day NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 25 20 , , , cord-348636-qqcb85uk 25 21 respectively respectively RB cord-348636-qqcb85uk 25 22 , , , cord-348636-qqcb85uk 25 23 and and CC cord-348636-qqcb85uk 25 24 the the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 25 25 estimated estimate VBN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 25 26 mean mean NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 25 27 and and CC cord-348636-qqcb85uk 25 28 variance variance NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 25 29 of of IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 25 30 the the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 25 31 time time NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 25 32 from from IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 25 33 admission admission NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 25 34 to to IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 25 35 discharge discharge NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 25 36 was be VBD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 25 37 23.5 23.5 CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 25 38 days day NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 25 39 and and CC cord-348636-qqcb85uk 25 40 62.1 62.1 CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 25 41 days day NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 25 42 , , , cord-348636-qqcb85uk 25 43 respectively respectively RB cord-348636-qqcb85uk 25 44 . . . cord-348636-qqcb85uk 26 1 As as IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 26 2 pointed point VBN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 26 3 out out RP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 26 4 by by IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 26 5 Leung Leung NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 26 6 et et NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 26 7 al al NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 26 8 . . . cord-348636-qqcb85uk 27 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-348636-qqcb85uk 27 2 2004 2004 CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 27 3 ) ) -RRB- cord-348636-qqcb85uk 27 4 , , , cord-348636-qqcb85uk 27 5 parameters parameter NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 27 6 above above IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 27 7 suffer suffer VBP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 27 8 from from IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 27 9 right right JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 27 10 censoring censoring NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 27 11 since since IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 27 12 they -PRON- PRP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 27 13 were be VBD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 27 14 obtained obtain VBN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 27 15 using use VBG cord-348636-qqcb85uk 27 16 data datum NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 27 17 from from IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 27 18 an an DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 27 19 ongoing ongoing JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 27 20 epidemic epidemic NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 27 21 . . . cord-348636-qqcb85uk 28 1 To to TO cord-348636-qqcb85uk 28 2 address address VB cord-348636-qqcb85uk 28 3 the the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 28 4 problem problem NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 28 5 of of IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 28 6 censoring censor VBG cord-348636-qqcb85uk 28 7 above above RB cord-348636-qqcb85uk 28 8 , , , cord-348636-qqcb85uk 28 9 the the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 28 10 authors author NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 28 11 re re VBP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 28 12 - - JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 28 13 estimated estimate VBN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 28 14 parameters parameter NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 28 15 above above IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 28 16 using use VBG cord-348636-qqcb85uk 28 17 complete complete JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 28 18 data datum NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 28 19 on on IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 28 20 all all PDT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 28 21 the the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 28 22 1755 1755 CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 28 23 cases case NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 28 24 . . . cord-348636-qqcb85uk 29 1 The the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 29 2 data datum NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 29 3 was be VBD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 29 4 completed complete VBN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 29 5 by by IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 29 6 using use VBG cord-348636-qqcb85uk 29 7 laboratory laboratory NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 29 8 verification verification NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 29 9 tests test NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 29 10 on on IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 29 11 83.6 83.6 CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 29 12 % % NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 29 13 of of IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 29 14 the the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 29 15 cases case NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 29 16 . . . cord-348636-qqcb85uk 30 1 They -PRON- PRP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 30 2 estimated estimate VBD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 30 3 the the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 30 4 mean mean JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 30 5 incubation incubation NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 30 6 period period NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 30 7 to to TO cord-348636-qqcb85uk 30 8 be be VB cord-348636-qqcb85uk 30 9 4.6(3.99 4.6(3.99 CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 30 10 ) ) -RRB- cord-348636-qqcb85uk 30 11 days day NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 30 12 ( ( -LRB- cord-348636-qqcb85uk 30 13 standard standard JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 30 14 errors error NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 30 15 in in IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 30 16 brackets bracket NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 30 17 ) ) -RRB- cord-348636-qqcb85uk 30 18 . . . cord-348636-qqcb85uk 31 1 They -PRON- PRP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 31 2 also also RB cord-348636-qqcb85uk 31 3 estimated estimate VBD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 31 4 that that IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 31 5 the the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 31 6 time time NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 31 7 from from IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 31 8 onset onset NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 31 9 to to IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 31 10 recovery recovery NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 31 11 , , , cord-348636-qqcb85uk 31 12 and and CC cord-348636-qqcb85uk 31 13 the the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 31 14 time time NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 31 15 from from IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 31 16 onset onset NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 31 17 to to IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 31 18 death death NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 31 19 each each DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 31 20 followed follow VBD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 31 21 a a DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 31 22 gamma gamma NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 31 23 distribution distribution NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 31 24 with with IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 31 25 mean mean JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 31 26 26.5(14.0 26.5(14.0 CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 31 27 ) ) -RRB- cord-348636-qqcb85uk 31 28 and and CC cord-348636-qqcb85uk 31 29 23.7(14.9 23.7(14.9 CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 31 30 ) ) -RRB- cord-348636-qqcb85uk 31 31 days day NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 31 32 , , , cord-348636-qqcb85uk 31 33 respectively respectively RB cord-348636-qqcb85uk 31 34 ( ( -LRB- cord-348636-qqcb85uk 31 35 standard standard JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 31 36 errors error NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 31 37 in in IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 31 38 brackets bracket NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 31 39 ) ) -RRB- cord-348636-qqcb85uk 31 40 . . . cord-348636-qqcb85uk 32 1 Using use VBG cord-348636-qqcb85uk 32 2 parameters parameter NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 32 3 estimated estimate VBN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 32 4 by by IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 32 5 Donnelly Donnelly NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 32 6 et et NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 32 7 al al NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 32 8 . . . cord-348636-qqcb85uk 33 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-348636-qqcb85uk 33 2 2003 2003 CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 33 3 ) ) -RRB- cord-348636-qqcb85uk 33 4 and and CC cord-348636-qqcb85uk 33 5 weekly weekly JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 33 6 data datum NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 33 7 on on IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 33 8 an an DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 33 9 ongoing ongoing JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 33 10 SARS SARS NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 33 11 epidemic epidemic NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 33 12 in in IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 33 13 Hong Hong NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 33 14 Kong Kong NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 33 15 , , , cord-348636-qqcb85uk 33 16 Riley Riley NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 33 17 et et NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 33 18 al al NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 33 19 . . . cord-348636-qqcb85uk 34 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-348636-qqcb85uk 34 2 2003 2003 CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 34 3 ) ) -RRB- cord-348636-qqcb85uk 34 4 estimated estimate VBD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 34 5 the the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 34 6 basic basic JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 34 7 reproduction reproduction NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 34 8 number number NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 34 9 ( ( -LRB- cord-348636-qqcb85uk 34 10 R r NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 34 11 0 0 CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 34 12 ) ) -RRB- cord-348636-qqcb85uk 34 13 from from IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 34 14 a a DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 34 15 discretized discretize VBN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 34 16 stochastic stochastic JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 34 17 meta meta JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 34 18 - - HYPH cord-348636-qqcb85uk 34 19 population population NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 34 20 SEIR SEIR NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 34 21 model model NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 34 22 as as IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 34 23 2.7 2.7 CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 34 24 with with IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 34 25 a a DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 34 26 95 95 CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 34 27 % % NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 34 28 confidence confidence NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 34 29 interval interval NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 34 30 of of IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 34 31 ( ( -LRB- cord-348636-qqcb85uk 34 32 2.2,3.7 2.2,3.7 CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 34 33 ) ) -RRB- cord-348636-qqcb85uk 34 34 . . . cord-348636-qqcb85uk 35 1 It -PRON- PRP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 35 2 is be VBZ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 35 3 evident evident JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 35 4 that that IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 35 5 estimates estimate NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 35 6 obtained obtain VBN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 35 7 by by IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 35 8 Leung Leung NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 35 9 et et NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 35 10 al al NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 35 11 . . . cord-348636-qqcb85uk 36 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-348636-qqcb85uk 36 2 2004 2004 CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 36 3 ) ) -RRB- cord-348636-qqcb85uk 36 4 are be VBP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 36 5 different different JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 36 6 from from IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 36 7 those those DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 36 8 obtained obtain VBN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 36 9 Donnelly Donnelly NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 36 10 et et NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 36 11 al al NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 36 12 . . . cord-348636-qqcb85uk 37 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-348636-qqcb85uk 37 2 2003 2003 CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 37 3 ) ) -RRB- cord-348636-qqcb85uk 38 1 and and CC cord-348636-qqcb85uk 38 2 as as IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 38 3 such such PDT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 38 4 the the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 38 5 estimate estimate NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 38 6 of of IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 38 7 2.7 2.7 CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 38 8 above above RB cord-348636-qqcb85uk 38 9 may may MD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 38 10 be be VB cord-348636-qqcb85uk 38 11 biased bias VBN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 38 12 as as IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 38 13 it -PRON- PRP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 38 14 was be VBD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 38 15 obtained obtain VBN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 38 16 using use VBG cord-348636-qqcb85uk 38 17 estimates estimate NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 38 18 obtained obtain VBN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 38 19 with with IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 38 20 right right JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 38 21 censored censor VBN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 38 22 data datum NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 38 23 . . . cord-348636-qqcb85uk 39 1 It -PRON- PRP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 39 2 is be VBZ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 39 3 imperative imperative JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 39 4 that that IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 39 5 a a DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 39 6 better well JJR cord-348636-qqcb85uk 39 7 estimate estimate NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 39 8 of of IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 39 9 the the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 39 10 basic basic JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 39 11 reproduction reproduction NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 39 12 number number NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 39 13 would would MD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 39 14 be be VB cord-348636-qqcb85uk 39 15 obtained obtain VBN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 39 16 by by IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 39 17 using use VBG cord-348636-qqcb85uk 39 18 estimates estimate NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 39 19 obtained obtain VBN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 39 20 by by IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 39 21 Leung Leung NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 39 22 et et NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 39 23 al al NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 39 24 . . . cord-348636-qqcb85uk 40 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-348636-qqcb85uk 40 2 2004 2004 CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 40 3 ) ) -RRB- cord-348636-qqcb85uk 40 4 are be VBP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 40 5 different different JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 40 6 from from IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 40 7 those those DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 40 8 obtained obtain VBN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 40 9 Donnelly Donnelly NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 40 10 et et NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 40 11 al al NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 40 12 . . . cord-348636-qqcb85uk 41 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-348636-qqcb85uk 41 2 2003 2003 CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 41 3 ) ) -RRB- cord-348636-qqcb85uk 42 1 and and CC cord-348636-qqcb85uk 42 2 as as IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 42 3 such such PDT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 42 4 the the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 42 5 estimate estimate NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 42 6 of of IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 42 7 2.7 2.7 CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 42 8 above above RB cord-348636-qqcb85uk 42 9 may may MD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 42 10 be be VB cord-348636-qqcb85uk 42 11 biased bias VBN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 42 12 as as IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 42 13 it -PRON- PRP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 42 14 was be VBD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 42 15 obtained obtain VBN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 42 16 using use VBG cord-348636-qqcb85uk 42 17 estimates estimate NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 42 18 obtained obtain VBN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 42 19 with with IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 42 20 right right JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 42 21 censored censor VBN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 42 22 data datum NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 42 23 . . . cord-348636-qqcb85uk 43 1 It -PRON- PRP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 43 2 is be VBZ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 43 3 imperative imperative JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 43 4 that that IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 43 5 a a DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 43 6 better well JJR cord-348636-qqcb85uk 43 7 estimate estimate NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 43 8 of of IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 43 9 the the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 43 10 basic basic JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 43 11 reproduction reproduction NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 43 12 number number NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 43 13 would would MD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 43 14 be be VB cord-348636-qqcb85uk 43 15 obtained obtain VBN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 43 16 by by IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 43 17 using use VBG cord-348636-qqcb85uk 43 18 estimates estimate NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 43 19 obtained obtain VBN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 43 20 by by IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 43 21 Leung Leung NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 43 22 et et NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 43 23 al al NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 43 24 . . . cord-348636-qqcb85uk 44 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-348636-qqcb85uk 44 2 2004 2004 CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 44 3 ) ) -RRB- cord-348636-qqcb85uk 44 4 . . . cord-348636-qqcb85uk 45 1 By by IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 45 2 studying study VBG cord-348636-qqcb85uk 45 3 the the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 45 4 exponential exponential JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 45 5 growth growth NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 45 6 at at IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 45 7 the the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 45 8 beginning beginning NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 45 9 of of IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 45 10 the the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 45 11 epidemic epidemic NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 45 12 and and CC cord-348636-qqcb85uk 45 13 by by IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 45 14 estimating estimate VBG cord-348636-qqcb85uk 45 15 the the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 45 16 generation generation NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 45 17 time time NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 45 18 , , , cord-348636-qqcb85uk 45 19 Lipsitch Lipsitch NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 45 20 estimated estimate VBD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 45 21 R r NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 45 22 0 0 CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 45 23 to to TO cord-348636-qqcb85uk 45 24 be be VB cord-348636-qqcb85uk 45 25 between between IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 45 26 2.2 2.2 CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 45 27 and and CC cord-348636-qqcb85uk 45 28 3.6 3.6 CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 45 29 . . . cord-348636-qqcb85uk 46 1 Using use VBG cord-348636-qqcb85uk 46 2 a a DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 46 3 likelihood likelihood NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 46 4 - - HYPH cord-348636-qqcb85uk 46 5 based base VBN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 46 6 approach approach NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 46 7 on on IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 46 8 an an DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 46 9 ongoing ongoing JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 46 10 epidemic epidemic NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 46 11 , , , cord-348636-qqcb85uk 46 12 Wallinga Wallinga NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 46 13 and and CC cord-348636-qqcb85uk 46 14 Tenius Tenius NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 46 15 ( ( -LRB- cord-348636-qqcb85uk 46 16 2004 2004 CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 46 17 ) ) -RRB- cord-348636-qqcb85uk 46 18 estimated estimate VBN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 46 19 R r NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 46 20 0 0 CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 46 21 to to TO cord-348636-qqcb85uk 46 22 be be VB cord-348636-qqcb85uk 46 23 between between IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 46 24 2.2 2.2 CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 46 25 and and CC cord-348636-qqcb85uk 46 26 3.7 3.7 CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 46 27 . . . cord-348636-qqcb85uk 47 1 McBryde McBryde NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 47 2 et et NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 47 3 al al NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 47 4 . . . cord-348636-qqcb85uk 48 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-348636-qqcb85uk 48 2 2006 2006 CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 48 3 ) ) -RRB- cord-348636-qqcb85uk 48 4 applied apply VBD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 48 5 Bayesian bayesian JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 48 6 inference inference NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 48 7 techniques technique NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 48 8 to to TO cord-348636-qqcb85uk 48 9 estimate estimate VB cord-348636-qqcb85uk 48 10 the the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 48 11 basic basic JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 48 12 reproduction reproduction NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 48 13 number number NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 48 14 and and CC cord-348636-qqcb85uk 48 15 other other JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 48 16 epidemiological epidemiological JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 48 17 determinants determinant NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 48 18 from from IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 48 19 data datum NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 48 20 arising arise VBG cord-348636-qqcb85uk 48 21 from from IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 48 22 a a DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 48 23 SARS SARS NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 48 24 epidemic epidemic NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 48 25 in in IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 48 26 Shanzi Shanzi NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 48 27 province province NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 48 28 of of IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 48 29 China China NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 48 30 . . . cord-348636-qqcb85uk 49 1 They -PRON- PRP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 49 2 estimated estimate VBD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 49 3 R r NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 49 4 0 0 CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 49 5 to to TO cord-348636-qqcb85uk 49 6 be be VB cord-348636-qqcb85uk 49 7 4.8 4.8 CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 49 8 with with IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 49 9 a a DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 49 10 95 95 CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 49 11 % % NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 49 12 credible credible JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 49 13 interval interval NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 49 14 of of IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 49 15 ( ( -LRB- cord-348636-qqcb85uk 49 16 2.2 2.2 CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 49 17 , , , cord-348636-qqcb85uk 49 18 8.8 8.8 CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 49 19 ) ) -RRB- cord-348636-qqcb85uk 49 20 . . . cord-348636-qqcb85uk 50 1 In in IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 50 2 this this DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 50 3 paper paper NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 50 4 , , , cord-348636-qqcb85uk 50 5 a a DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 50 6 slight slight JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 50 7 variation variation NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 50 8 of of IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 50 9 the the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 50 10 model model NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 50 11 by by IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 50 12 Riley Riley NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 50 13 et et NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 50 14 al al NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 50 15 . . . cord-348636-qqcb85uk 51 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-348636-qqcb85uk 51 2 2003 2003 CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 51 3 ) ) -RRB- cord-348636-qqcb85uk 51 4 is be VBZ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 51 5 formulated formulate VBN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 51 6 . . . cord-348636-qqcb85uk 52 1 The the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 52 2 model model NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 52 3 is be VBZ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 52 4 used use VBN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 52 5 in in IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 52 6 conjunction conjunction NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 52 7 with with IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 52 8 gamma gamma NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 52 9 distributions distribution NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 52 10 estimated estimate VBN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 52 11 by by IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 52 12 Leung Leung NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 52 13 et et NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 52 14 al al NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 52 15 . . . cord-348636-qqcb85uk 53 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-348636-qqcb85uk 53 2 2004 2004 CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 53 3 ) ) -RRB- cord-348636-qqcb85uk 53 4 and and CC cord-348636-qqcb85uk 53 5 SARS SARS NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 53 6 data datum NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 53 7 from from IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 53 8 Hong Hong NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 53 9 Kong Kong NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 53 10 that that WDT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 53 11 is be VBZ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 53 12 well well RB cord-348636-qqcb85uk 53 13 documented document VBN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 53 14 by by IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 53 15 Leung Leung NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 53 16 et et NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 53 17 al al NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 53 18 . . . cord-348636-qqcb85uk 54 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-348636-qqcb85uk 54 2 2004 2004 CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 54 3 ) ) -RRB- cord-348636-qqcb85uk 54 4 . . . cord-348636-qqcb85uk 55 1 Interest interest NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 55 2 lies lie VBZ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 55 3 in in IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 55 4 estimating estimate VBG cord-348636-qqcb85uk 55 5 the the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 55 6 transmission transmission NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 55 7 parameter parameter NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 55 8 , , , cord-348636-qqcb85uk 55 9 the the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 55 10 basic basic JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 55 11 reproduction reproduction NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 55 12 number number NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 55 13 , , , cord-348636-qqcb85uk 55 14 and and CC cord-348636-qqcb85uk 55 15 assessing assess VBG cord-348636-qqcb85uk 55 16 whether whether IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 55 17 control control NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 55 18 interventions intervention NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 55 19 were be VBD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 55 20 successful successful JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 55 21 in in IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 55 22 controlling control VBG cord-348636-qqcb85uk 55 23 the the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 55 24 epidemic epidemic NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 55 25 or or CC cord-348636-qqcb85uk 55 26 not not RB cord-348636-qqcb85uk 55 27 . . . cord-348636-qqcb85uk 56 1 Markov Markov NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 56 2 chain chain NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 56 3 Monte Monte NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 56 4 Carlo Carlo NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 56 5 methods method NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 56 6 are be VBP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 56 7 used use VBN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 56 8 for for IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 56 9 numerical numerical JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 56 10 integration integration NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 56 11 over over IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 56 12 the the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 56 13 distribution distribution NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 56 14 of of IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 56 15 unobserved unobserved JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 56 16 variables variable NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 56 17 which which WDT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 56 18 in in IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 56 19 this this DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 56 20 article article NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 56 21 is be VBZ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 56 22 the the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 56 23 series series NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 56 24 of of IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 56 25 unobserved unobserved JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 56 26 new new JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 56 27 cases case NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 56 28 . . . cord-348636-qqcb85uk 57 1 The the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 57 2 modelling modelling NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 57 3 approach approach NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 57 4 used use VBN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 57 5 is be VBZ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 57 6 different different JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 57 7 from from IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 57 8 the the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 57 9 one one CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 57 10 by by IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 57 11 McBryde McBryde NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 57 12 et et NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 57 13 al al NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 57 14 . . . cord-348636-qqcb85uk 58 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-348636-qqcb85uk 58 2 2006 2006 CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 58 3 ) ) -RRB- cord-348636-qqcb85uk 59 1 and and CC cord-348636-qqcb85uk 59 2 uses use VBZ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 59 3 a a DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 59 4 different different JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 59 5 data data NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 59 6 set set VBN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 59 7 . . . cord-348636-qqcb85uk 60 1 The the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 60 2 paper paper NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 60 3 is be VBZ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 60 4 organized organize VBN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 60 5 as as IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 60 6 follows follow VBZ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 60 7 ; ; : cord-348636-qqcb85uk 60 8 Epidemiological epidemiological JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 60 9 features feature NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 60 10 of of IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 60 11 SARS SARS NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 60 12 and and CC cord-348636-qqcb85uk 60 13 the the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 60 14 Hong Hong NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 60 15 Kong Kong NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 60 16 data datum NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 60 17 are be VBP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 60 18 discussed discuss VBN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 60 19 in in IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 60 20 the the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 60 21 next next JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 60 22 Section section NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 60 23 with with IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 60 24 the the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 60 25 model model NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 60 26 presented present VBN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 60 27 in in IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 60 28 Section section NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 60 29 3 3 CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 60 30 . . . cord-348636-qqcb85uk 61 1 The the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 61 2 Bayesian bayesian JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 61 3 inference inference NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 61 4 algorithm algorithm NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 61 5 using use VBG cord-348636-qqcb85uk 61 6 Markov Markov NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 61 7 Chain Chain NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 61 8 Monte Monte NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 61 9 Carlo Carlo NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 61 10 methods method NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 61 11 is be VBZ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 61 12 discussed discuss VBN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 61 13 in in IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 61 14 Section section NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 61 15 4 4 CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 61 16 with with IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 61 17 applications application NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 61 18 to to IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 61 19 simulated simulated JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 61 20 data datum NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 61 21 and and CC cord-348636-qqcb85uk 61 22 observed observe VBD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 61 23 Hong Hong NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 61 24 Kong Kong NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 61 25 data datum NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 61 26 discussed discuss VBN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 61 27 in in IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 61 28 Section section NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 61 29 5 5 CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 61 30 . . . cord-348636-qqcb85uk 62 1 A a DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 62 2 discussion discussion NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 62 3 of of IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 62 4 the the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 62 5 paper paper NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 62 6 is be VBZ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 62 7 given give VBN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 62 8 in in IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 62 9 Section section NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 62 10 6 6 CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 62 11 . . . cord-348636-qqcb85uk 63 1 The the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 63 2 disease disease NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 63 3 is be VBZ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 63 4 transmitted transmit VBN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 63 5 via via IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 63 6 close close JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 63 7 person person NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 63 8 - - : cord-348636-qqcb85uk 63 9 to to IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 63 10 person person NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 63 11 contact contact NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 63 12 with with IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 63 13 infected infected JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 63 14 individuals individual NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 63 15 ( ( -LRB- cord-348636-qqcb85uk 63 16 Chowell Chowell NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 63 17 et et FW cord-348636-qqcb85uk 63 18 al al NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 63 19 . . NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 63 20 , , , cord-348636-qqcb85uk 63 21 ( ( -LRB- cord-348636-qqcb85uk 63 22 2003 2003 CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 63 23 ) ) -RRB- cord-348636-qqcb85uk 63 24 . . . cord-348636-qqcb85uk 64 1 In in IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 64 2 general general JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 64 3 , , , cord-348636-qqcb85uk 64 4 SARS SARS NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 64 5 begins begin VBZ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 64 6 with with IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 64 7 a a DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 64 8 high high JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 64 9 fever fever NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 64 10 , , , cord-348636-qqcb85uk 64 11 with with IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 64 12 other other JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 64 13 symptoms symptom NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 64 14 including include VBG cord-348636-qqcb85uk 64 15 headache headache NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 64 16 , , , cord-348636-qqcb85uk 64 17 an an DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 64 18 overall overall JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 64 19 feeling feeling NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 64 20 of of IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 64 21 discomfort discomfort NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 64 22 , , , cord-348636-qqcb85uk 64 23 and and CC cord-348636-qqcb85uk 64 24 body body NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 64 25 aches ache NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 64 26 . . . cord-348636-qqcb85uk 65 1 Some some DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 65 2 people people NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 65 3 also also RB cord-348636-qqcb85uk 65 4 have have VBP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 65 5 mild mild JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 65 6 respiratory respiratory JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 65 7 symptoms symptom NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 65 8 at at IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 65 9 the the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 65 10 outset outset NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 65 11 while while IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 65 12 most most JJS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 65 13 patients patient NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 65 14 develop develop VBP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 65 15 pneumonia pneumonia NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 65 16 . . . cord-348636-qqcb85uk 66 1 An an DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 66 2 individual individual NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 66 3 exposed expose VBN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 66 4 to to IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 66 5 SARS SARS NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 66 6 becomes become VBZ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 66 7 infectious infectious JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 66 8 after after IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 66 9 an an DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 66 10 incubation incubation NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 66 11 period period NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 66 12 of of IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 66 13 2 2 CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 66 14 - - SYM cord-348636-qqcb85uk 66 15 7 7 CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 66 16 days day NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 67 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-348636-qqcb85uk 67 2 Chowell Chowell NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 67 3 et et FW cord-348636-qqcb85uk 67 4 al al NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 67 5 . . NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 67 6 , , , cord-348636-qqcb85uk 67 7 2003 2003 CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 67 8 ) ) -RRB- cord-348636-qqcb85uk 67 9 . . . cord-348636-qqcb85uk 68 1 Once once RB cord-348636-qqcb85uk 68 2 infectious infectious JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 68 3 , , , cord-348636-qqcb85uk 68 4 individuals individual NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 68 5 remain remain VBP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 68 6 so so RB cord-348636-qqcb85uk 68 7 for for IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 68 8 7 7 CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 68 9 - - SYM cord-348636-qqcb85uk 68 10 10 10 CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 68 11 days day NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 68 12 before before IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 68 13 they -PRON- PRP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 68 14 recover recover VBP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 68 15 , , , cord-348636-qqcb85uk 68 16 although although IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 68 17 about about IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 68 18 4 4 CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 68 19 % % NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 68 20 or or CC cord-348636-qqcb85uk 68 21 more more RBR cord-348636-qqcb85uk 68 22 die die VB cord-348636-qqcb85uk 68 23 ( ( -LRB- cord-348636-qqcb85uk 69 1 Chowell Chowell NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 69 2 et et FW cord-348636-qqcb85uk 69 3 al al NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 69 4 . . NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 69 5 , , , cord-348636-qqcb85uk 69 6 2003 2003 CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 69 7 ) ) -RRB- cord-348636-qqcb85uk 69 8 . . . cord-348636-qqcb85uk 70 1 Circumstantial circumstantial JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 70 2 evidence evidence NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 70 3 suggests suggest VBZ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 70 4 that that IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 70 5 , , , cord-348636-qqcb85uk 70 6 in in IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 70 7 most most JJS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 70 8 cases case NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 70 9 , , , cord-348636-qqcb85uk 70 10 infectiousness infectiousness NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 70 11 coincides coincide VBZ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 70 12 with with IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 70 13 clinical clinical JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 70 14 symptoms symptom NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 70 15 ( ( -LRB- cord-348636-qqcb85uk 70 16 Leung Leung NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 70 17 et et NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 70 18 al al NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 70 19 . . NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 70 20 , , , cord-348636-qqcb85uk 70 21 2004 2004 CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 70 22 ; ; : cord-348636-qqcb85uk 71 1 Riley Riley NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 71 2 et et NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 71 3 al al NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 71 4 . . NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 71 5 , , , cord-348636-qqcb85uk 71 6 2003 2003 CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 71 7 ) ) -RRB- cord-348636-qqcb85uk 71 8 . . . cord-348636-qqcb85uk 72 1 Here here RB cord-348636-qqcb85uk 72 2 we -PRON- PRP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 72 3 study study VBP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 72 4 data datum NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 72 5 from from IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 72 6 the the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 72 7 2003 2003 CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 72 8 SARS SARS NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 72 9 outbreak outbreak NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 72 10 in in IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 72 11 Hong Hong NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 72 12 Kong Kong NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 72 13 which which WDT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 72 14 is be VBZ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 72 15 well well RB cord-348636-qqcb85uk 72 16 documented document VBN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 72 17 by by IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 72 18 Leung Leung NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 72 19 et et NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 72 20 al al NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 72 21 . . . cord-348636-qqcb85uk 73 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-348636-qqcb85uk 73 2 2004 2004 CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 73 3 ) ) -RRB- cord-348636-qqcb85uk 73 4 . . . cord-348636-qqcb85uk 74 1 The the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 74 2 data datum NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 74 3 consist consist VBP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 74 4 of of IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 74 5 three three CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 74 6 time time NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 74 7 series series NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 74 8 ( ( -LRB- cord-348636-qqcb85uk 74 9 see see VB cord-348636-qqcb85uk 74 10 Figure Figure NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 74 11 1 1 CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 74 12 ) ) -RRB- cord-348636-qqcb85uk 74 13 recorded record VBN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 74 14 from from IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 74 15 February February NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 74 16 15 15 CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 74 17 to to IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 74 18 July July NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 74 19 24 24 CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 74 20 , , , cord-348636-qqcb85uk 74 21 namely namely RB cord-348636-qqcb85uk 74 22 daily daily JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 74 23 counts count NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 74 24 of of IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 74 25 SARS SARS NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 74 26 cases case NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 74 27 by by IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 74 28 date date NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 74 29 of of IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 74 30 symptom symptom NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 74 31 onset onset NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 74 32 ( ( -LRB- cord-348636-qqcb85uk 74 33 1755 1755 CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 74 34 cases case NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 74 35 ) ) -RRB- cord-348636-qqcb85uk 74 36 , , , cord-348636-qqcb85uk 74 37 daily daily JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 74 38 counts count NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 74 39 of of IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 74 40 deaths death NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 74 41 from from IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 74 42 SARS SARS NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 74 43 ( ( -LRB- cord-348636-qqcb85uk 74 44 302 302 CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 74 45 deaths death NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 74 46 ) ) -RRB- cord-348636-qqcb85uk 74 47 and and CC cord-348636-qqcb85uk 74 48 daily daily JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 74 49 recoveries recovery NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 74 50 from from IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 74 51 SARS SARS NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 74 52 ( ( -LRB- cord-348636-qqcb85uk 74 53 1410 1410 CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 74 54 recoveries recovery NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 74 55 ) ) -RRB- cord-348636-qqcb85uk 74 56 . . . cord-348636-qqcb85uk 75 1 It -PRON- PRP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 75 2 is be VBZ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 75 3 also also RB cord-348636-qqcb85uk 75 4 documented document VBN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 75 5 that that IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 75 6 the the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 75 7 first first JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 75 8 case case NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 75 9 of of IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 75 10 SARS SARS NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 75 11 in in IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 75 12 Hong Hong NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 75 13 Kong Kong NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 75 14 showed show VBD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 75 15 symptoms symptom NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 75 16 on on IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 75 17 15 15 CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 75 18 February February NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 75 19 , , , cord-348636-qqcb85uk 75 20 2003 2003 CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 75 21 and and CC cord-348636-qqcb85uk 75 22 was be VBD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 75 23 subsequently subsequently RB cord-348636-qqcb85uk 75 24 hospitalized hospitalize VBN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 75 25 on on IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 75 26 22 22 CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 75 27 February February NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 76 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-348636-qqcb85uk 76 2 Leung Leung NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 76 3 et et NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 76 4 al al NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 76 5 . . NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 76 6 , , , cord-348636-qqcb85uk 76 7 2004 2004 CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 76 8 ) ) -RRB- cord-348636-qqcb85uk 76 9 . . . cord-348636-qqcb85uk 77 1 The the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 77 2 last last JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 77 3 patient patient NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 77 4 with with IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 77 5 SARS SARS NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 77 6 first first RB cord-348636-qqcb85uk 77 7 experienced experience VBD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 77 8 symptoms symptom NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 77 9 on on IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 77 10 31 31 CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 77 11 May May NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 77 12 and and CC cord-348636-qqcb85uk 77 13 was be VBD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 77 14 hospitalized hospitalize VBN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 77 15 on on IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 77 16 2 2 CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 77 17 June June NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 77 18 ( ( -LRB- cord-348636-qqcb85uk 77 19 Leung Leung NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 77 20 et et NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 77 21 al al NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 77 22 . . NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 77 23 , , , cord-348636-qqcb85uk 77 24 2004 2004 CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 77 25 ) ) -RRB- cord-348636-qqcb85uk 77 26 . . . cord-348636-qqcb85uk 78 1 On on IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 78 2 June June NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 78 3 23 23 CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 78 4 , , , cord-348636-qqcb85uk 78 5 the the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 78 6 World World NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 78 7 Health Health NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 78 8 Organization Organization NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 78 9 removed remove VBD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 78 10 Hong Hong NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 78 11 Kong Kong NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 78 12 from from IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 78 13 its -PRON- PRP$ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 78 14 list list NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 78 15 of of IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 78 16 areas area NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 78 17 with with IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 78 18 recent recent JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 78 19 local local JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 78 20 transmission transmission NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 78 21 of of IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 78 22 SARS SARS NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 78 23 ( ( -LRB- cord-348636-qqcb85uk 78 24 Leung Leung NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 78 25 et et NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 78 26 al al NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 78 27 . . NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 78 28 , , , cord-348636-qqcb85uk 78 29 2004 2004 CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 78 30 ) ) -RRB- cord-348636-qqcb85uk 78 31 . . . cord-348636-qqcb85uk 79 1 It -PRON- PRP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 79 2 is be VBZ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 79 3 suggested suggest VBN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 79 4 by by IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 79 5 Chau Chau NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 79 6 and and CC cord-348636-qqcb85uk 79 7 Yip Yip NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 79 8 ( ( -LRB- cord-348636-qqcb85uk 79 9 2003a 2003a CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 79 10 ) ) -RRB- cord-348636-qqcb85uk 79 11 that that WDT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 79 12 control control NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 79 13 interventions intervention NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 79 14 were be VBD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 79 15 initially initially RB cord-348636-qqcb85uk 79 16 introduced introduce VBN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 79 17 on on IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 79 18 or or CC cord-348636-qqcb85uk 79 19 around around IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 79 20 the the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 79 21 10th 10th NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 79 22 of of IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 79 23 March March NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 79 24 when when WRB cord-348636-qqcb85uk 79 25 there there EX cord-348636-qqcb85uk 79 26 was be VBD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 79 27 a a DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 79 28 formal formal JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 79 29 recognition recognition NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 79 30 of of IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 79 31 an an DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 79 32 outbreak outbreak NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 79 33 in in IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 79 34 a a DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 79 35 hospital hospital NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 79 36 , , , cord-348636-qqcb85uk 79 37 with with IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 79 38 more more JJR cord-348636-qqcb85uk 79 39 measures measure NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 79 40 being be VBG cord-348636-qqcb85uk 79 41 put put VBN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 79 42 in in IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 79 43 place place NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 79 44 thereafter thereafter RB cord-348636-qqcb85uk 79 45 . . . cord-348636-qqcb85uk 80 1 The the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 80 2 epidemic epidemic NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 80 3 lasted last VBD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 80 4 for for IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 80 5 about about RB cord-348636-qqcb85uk 80 6 128 128 CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 80 7 days day NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 80 8 with with IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 80 9 control control NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 80 10 measures measure NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 80 11 being be VBG cord-348636-qqcb85uk 80 12 introduced introduce VBN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 80 13 about about IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 80 14 30 30 CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 80 15 days day NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 80 16 after after IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 80 17 the the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 80 18 start start NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 80 19 of of IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 80 20 the the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 80 21 epidemic epidemic NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 80 22 . . . cord-348636-qqcb85uk 81 1 In in IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 81 2 this this DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 81 3 section section NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 81 4 , , , cord-348636-qqcb85uk 81 5 a a DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 81 6 slight slight JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 81 7 variation variation NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 81 8 of of IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 81 9 the the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 81 10 model model NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 81 11 by by IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 81 12 Riley Riley NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 81 13 et et NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 81 14 al al NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 81 15 . . . cord-348636-qqcb85uk 82 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-348636-qqcb85uk 82 2 2003 2003 CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 82 3 ) ) -RRB- cord-348636-qqcb85uk 82 4 is be VBZ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 82 5 considered consider VBN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 82 6 . . . cord-348636-qqcb85uk 83 1 Riley Riley NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 83 2 et et NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 83 3 al al NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 83 4 . . . cord-348636-qqcb85uk 84 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-348636-qqcb85uk 84 2 2003 2003 CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 84 3 ) ) -RRB- cord-348636-qqcb85uk 84 4 used use VBD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 84 5 a a DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 84 6 discretized discretize VBN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 84 7 stochastic stochastic JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 84 8 metapopulation metapopulation NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 84 9 SEIR SEIR NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 84 10 model model NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 84 11 with with IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 84 12 a a DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 84 13 gamma gamma NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 84 14 distribution distribution NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 84 15 ( ( -LRB- cord-348636-qqcb85uk 84 16 formulated formulate VBN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 84 17 as as IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 84 18 a a DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 84 19 sum sum NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 84 20 of of IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 84 21 exponential exponential JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 84 22 distributions distribution NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 84 23 ) ) -RRB- cord-348636-qqcb85uk 84 24 used use VBN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 84 25 for for IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 84 26 the the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 84 27 waiting wait VBG cord-348636-qqcb85uk 84 28 time time NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 84 29 in in IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 84 30 each each DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 84 31 disease disease NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 84 32 compartment compartment NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 84 33 . . . cord-348636-qqcb85uk 85 1 The the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 85 2 model model NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 85 3 considered consider VBN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 85 4 here here RB cord-348636-qqcb85uk 85 5 is be VBZ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 85 6 a a DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 85 7 single single JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 85 8 population population NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 85 9 version version NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 85 10 of of IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 85 11 the the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 85 12 model model NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 85 13 of of IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 85 14 Riley Riley NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 85 15 et et NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 85 16 al al NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 85 17 . . . cord-348636-qqcb85uk 86 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-348636-qqcb85uk 86 2 2003 2003 CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 86 3 ) ) -RRB- cord-348636-qqcb85uk 86 4 with with IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 86 5 a a DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 86 6 back back JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 86 7 - - HYPH cord-348636-qqcb85uk 86 8 projection projection NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 86 9 method method NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 86 10 ( ( -LRB- cord-348636-qqcb85uk 86 11 Brookmeyer Brookmeyer NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 86 12 and and CC cord-348636-qqcb85uk 86 13 Gail Gail NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 86 14 , , , cord-348636-qqcb85uk 86 15 1986 1986 CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 86 16 ) ) -RRB- cord-348636-qqcb85uk 86 17 , , , cord-348636-qqcb85uk 86 18 used use VBN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 86 19 instead instead RB cord-348636-qqcb85uk 86 20 of of IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 86 21 a a DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 86 22 gamma gamma NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 86 23 distribution distribution NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 86 24 represented represent VBN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 86 25 as as IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 86 26 a a DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 86 27 sum sum NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 86 28 of of IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 86 29 independent independent JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 86 30 exponential exponential JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 86 31 random random JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 86 32 variables variable NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 86 33 . . . cord-348636-qqcb85uk 87 1 The the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 87 2 single single JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 87 3 population population NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 87 4 model model NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 87 5 is be VBZ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 87 6 motivated motivate VBN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 87 7 by by IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 87 8 the the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 87 9 complete complete JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 87 10 SARS SARS NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 87 11 data datum NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 87 12 discussed discuss VBN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 87 13 in in IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 87 14 the the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 87 15 previous previous JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 87 16 section section NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 87 17 and and CC cord-348636-qqcb85uk 87 18 by by IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 87 19 the the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 87 20 fact fact NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 87 21 that that IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 87 22 it -PRON- PRP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 87 23 requires require VBZ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 87 24 less less JJR cord-348636-qqcb85uk 87 25 detail detail NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 87 26 to to TO cord-348636-qqcb85uk 87 27 specify specify VB cord-348636-qqcb85uk 87 28 and and CC cord-348636-qqcb85uk 87 29 less less JJR cord-348636-qqcb85uk 87 30 data datum NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 87 31 for for IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 87 32 inference inference NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 87 33 as as IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 87 34 compared compare VBN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 87 35 to to IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 87 36 the the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 87 37 model model NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 87 38 of of IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 87 39 Riley Riley NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 87 40 et et NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 87 41 al al NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 87 42 . . . cord-348636-qqcb85uk 88 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-348636-qqcb85uk 88 2 2003 2003 CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 88 3 ) ) -RRB- cord-348636-qqcb85uk 88 4 . . . cord-348636-qqcb85uk 89 1 A a DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 89 2 description description NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 89 3 of of IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 89 4 the the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 89 5 model model NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 89 6 is be VBZ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 89 7 as as IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 89 8 follows follow VBZ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 89 9 ; ; : cord-348636-qqcb85uk 89 10 assume assume VB cord-348636-qqcb85uk 89 11 that that IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 89 12 an an DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 89 13 individual individual NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 89 14 is be VBZ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 89 15 susceptible susceptible JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 89 16 ( ( -LRB- cord-348636-qqcb85uk 89 17 S s NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 89 18 ) ) -RRB- cord-348636-qqcb85uk 89 19 until until IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 89 20 exposed expose VBN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 89 21 to to IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 89 22 infection infection NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 89 23 . . . cord-348636-qqcb85uk 90 1 Once once RB cord-348636-qqcb85uk 90 2 infected infect VBD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 90 3 an an DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 90 4 individual individual NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 90 5 goes go VBZ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 90 6 through through IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 90 7 an an DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 90 8 exposure exposure NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 90 9 stage stage NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 90 10 ( ( -LRB- cord-348636-qqcb85uk 90 11 E e NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 90 12 ) ) -RRB- cord-348636-qqcb85uk 90 13 where where WRB cord-348636-qqcb85uk 90 14 they -PRON- PRP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 90 15 are be VBP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 90 16 not not RB cord-348636-qqcb85uk 90 17 infectious infectious JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 90 18 followed follow VBN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 90 19 by by IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 90 20 an an DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 90 21 infectious infectious JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 90 22 ( ( -LRB- cord-348636-qqcb85uk 90 23 I i NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 90 24 ) ) -RRB- cord-348636-qqcb85uk 90 25 stage stage NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 90 26 where where WRB cord-348636-qqcb85uk 90 27 they -PRON- PRP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 90 28 are be VBP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 90 29 classified classify VBN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 90 30 into into IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 90 31 two two CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 90 32 categories category NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 90 33 ðI ði JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 90 34 À à NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 90 35 Þ þ NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 90 36 and and CC cord-348636-qqcb85uk 90 37 ðI ði CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 90 38 þ þ XX cord-348636-qqcb85uk 91 1 Þ. Þ. NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 91 2 The the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 91 3 classification classification NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 91 4 is be VBZ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 91 5 based base VBN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 91 6 on on IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 91 7 whether whether IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 91 8 an an DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 91 9 infectious infectious JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 91 10 individual individual NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 91 11 will will MD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 91 12 proceed proceed VB cord-348636-qqcb85uk 91 13 to to TO cord-348636-qqcb85uk 91 14 die die VB cord-348636-qqcb85uk 91 15 ðR ðr CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 91 16 À à NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 91 17 Þ þ NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 91 18 with with IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 91 19 probability probability NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 91 20 p p NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 91 21 or or CC cord-348636-qqcb85uk 91 22 proceed proceed VB cord-348636-qqcb85uk 91 23 to to TO cord-348636-qqcb85uk 91 24 recover recover VB cord-348636-qqcb85uk 91 25 ðR ðr CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 91 26 þ þ NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 91 27 Þ þ NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 91 28 with with IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 91 29 probability probability NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 91 30 1 1 CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 91 31 À à NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 91 32 p. p. NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 92 1 Let let VB cord-348636-qqcb85uk 92 2 T t NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 92 3 E e NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 92 4 ; ; : cord-348636-qqcb85uk 93 1 T T NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 93 2 þ þ NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 93 3 and and CC cord-348636-qqcb85uk 93 4 T T NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 93 5 À à NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 93 6 represents represent VBZ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 93 7 the the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 93 8 time time NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 93 9 spent spend VBN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 93 10 in in IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 93 11 class class NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 93 12 E e NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 93 13 ; ; : cord-348636-qqcb85uk 93 14 I -PRON- PRP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 93 15 þ þ NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 93 16 and and CC cord-348636-qqcb85uk 93 17 Biometrical Biometrical NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 93 18 Journal Journal NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 93 19 50 50 CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 93 20 ( ( -LRB- cord-348636-qqcb85uk 93 21 2008 2008 CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 93 22 ) ) -RRB- cord-348636-qqcb85uk 94 1 I -PRON- PRP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 94 2 À à NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 94 3 , , , cord-348636-qqcb85uk 94 4 respectively respectively RB cord-348636-qqcb85uk 94 5 . . . cord-348636-qqcb85uk 95 1 Let let VB cord-348636-qqcb85uk 95 2 f f NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 95 3 t t NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 95 4 ¼ ¼ NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 95 5 PðT PðT NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 95 6 E E NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 95 7 ¼ ¼ NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 95 8 tÞ tÞ NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 95 9 ; ; : cord-348636-qqcb85uk 95 10 g g NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 95 11 þ þ NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 96 1 t t NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 96 2 ¼ ¼ NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 96 3 PðT PðT NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 97 1 þ þ NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 98 1 ¼ ¼ NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 98 2 tÞ tÞ NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 98 3 and and CC cord-348636-qqcb85uk 99 1 g g NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 99 2 À à FW cord-348636-qqcb85uk 99 3 t t NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 99 4 ¼ ¼ NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 99 5 PðT PðT NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 99 6 À À NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 99 7 ¼ ¼ NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 99 8 tÞ tÞ NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 99 9 be be VB cord-348636-qqcb85uk 99 10 probability probability NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 99 11 distributions distribution NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 99 12 for for IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 99 13 the the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 99 14 time time NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 99 15 spent spend VBN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 99 16 in in IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 99 17 each each DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 99 18 disease disease NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 99 19 class class NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 99 20 . . . cord-348636-qqcb85uk 100 1 Let let VB cord-348636-qqcb85uk 100 2 m m NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 100 3 E e NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 100 4 and and CC cord-348636-qqcb85uk 100 5 s s NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 101 1 2 2 LS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 101 2 E E NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 101 3 represent represent VBP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 101 4 the the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 101 5 mean mean NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 101 6 and and CC cord-348636-qqcb85uk 101 7 variance variance NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 101 8 of of IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 101 9 T t NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 101 10 E e NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 101 11 , , , cord-348636-qqcb85uk 101 12 respectively respectively RB cord-348636-qqcb85uk 101 13 and and CC cord-348636-qqcb85uk 101 14 define define VB cord-348636-qqcb85uk 101 15 m m NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 101 16 þ þ NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 101 17 ; ; : cord-348636-qqcb85uk 101 18 s s NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 101 19 2 2 CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 101 20 þ þ NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 101 21 ; ; : cord-348636-qqcb85uk 101 22 m m NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 101 23 À à NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 101 24 and and CC cord-348636-qqcb85uk 101 25 s s NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 101 26 2 2 CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 101 27 À à NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 101 28 , , , cord-348636-qqcb85uk 101 29 similarly similarly RB cord-348636-qqcb85uk 101 30 . . . cord-348636-qqcb85uk 102 1 Consider consider VB cord-348636-qqcb85uk 102 2 a a DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 102 3 time time NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 102 4 interval interval NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 102 5 ðt ðt NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 102 6 ; ; : cord-348636-qqcb85uk 102 7 t t NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 102 8 þ þ NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 102 9 h h NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 102 10 where where WRB cord-348636-qqcb85uk 102 11 h h NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 102 12 represents represent VBZ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 102 13 the the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 102 14 time time NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 102 15 interval interval NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 102 16 at at IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 102 17 which which WDT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 102 18 measurements measurement NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 102 19 are be VBP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 102 20 taken take VBN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 102 21 , , , cord-348636-qqcb85uk 102 22 here here RB cord-348636-qqcb85uk 102 23 h h NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 102 24 ¼ ¼ CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 102 25 1 1 CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 102 26 day day NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 102 27 . . . cord-348636-qqcb85uk 103 1 Let let VB cord-348636-qqcb85uk 103 2 BðtÞ BðtÞ NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 103 3 ; ; : cord-348636-qqcb85uk 103 4 CðtÞ CðtÞ NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 103 5 ; ; : cord-348636-qqcb85uk 103 6 D D NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 103 7 þ þ NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 103 8 ðtÞ ðtÞ NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 103 9 and and CC cord-348636-qqcb85uk 103 10 D d NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 103 11 À à NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 103 12 ðtÞ ðtÞ NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 103 13 denote denote VBP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 103 14 the the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 103 15 number number NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 103 16 of of IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 103 17 individuals individual NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 103 18 exiting exit VBG cord-348636-qqcb85uk 103 19 class class NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 103 20 S s NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 103 21 ; ; : cord-348636-qqcb85uk 103 22 E e NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 103 23 ; ; : cord-348636-qqcb85uk 104 1 I -PRON- PRP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 104 2 þ þ NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 104 3 and and CC cord-348636-qqcb85uk 104 4 I -PRON- PRP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 104 5 À à VBP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 104 6 during during IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 104 7 the the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 104 8 time time NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 104 9 interval interval NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 104 10 ðt ðt NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 104 11 ; ; : cord-348636-qqcb85uk 104 12 t t NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 104 13 þ þ NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 104 14 h h NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 104 15 , , , cord-348636-qqcb85uk 104 16 respectively respectively RB cord-348636-qqcb85uk 104 17 . . . cord-348636-qqcb85uk 105 1 Let let VB cord-348636-qqcb85uk 105 2 bðtÞ bðtþ CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 105 3 be be VB cord-348636-qqcb85uk 105 4 the the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 105 5 time time NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 105 6 dependent dependent JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 105 7 infection infection NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 105 8 rate rate NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 105 9 and and CC cord-348636-qqcb85uk 105 10 define define VB cord-348636-qqcb85uk 105 11 PðtÞ PðtÞ NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 105 12 ¼ ¼ CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 105 13 1 1 CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 105 14 À à NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 105 15 exp exp NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 105 16 À à NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 105 17 bðtÞ bðtþ CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 106 1 N N NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 107 1 hIðtÞ hIðtÞ . cord-348636-qqcb85uk 108 1 IðtÞ IðtÞ NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 108 2 ¼ ¼ NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 109 1 I -PRON- PRP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 110 1 þ þ NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 111 1 ðtÞ ðtÞ NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 112 1 þ þ NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 113 1 I -PRON- PRP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 113 2 À À NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 113 3 ðtÞ ðtÞ NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 113 4 and and CC cord-348636-qqcb85uk 113 5 N N NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 113 6 is be VBZ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 113 7 the the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 113 8 population population NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 113 9 size size NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 113 10 , , , cord-348636-qqcb85uk 113 11 as as IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 113 12 the the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 113 13 probability probability NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 113 14 that that IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 113 15 a a DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 113 16 susceptible susceptible JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 113 17 individual individual NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 113 18 will will MD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 113 19 get get VB cord-348636-qqcb85uk 113 20 infected infect VBN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 113 21 in in IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 113 22 ðt ðt NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 113 23 ; ; . cord-348636-qqcb85uk 114 1 t t NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 115 1 þ þ NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 116 1 h. h. NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 117 1 The the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 117 2 rationale rationale NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 117 3 for for IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 117 4 the the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 117 5 form form NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 117 6 of of IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 117 7 PðtÞ PðtÞ NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 117 8 is be VBZ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 117 9 given give VBN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 117 10 in in IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 117 11 Lekone Lekone NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 117 12 and and CC cord-348636-qqcb85uk 117 13 Finkenstådt Finkenstådt NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 117 14 ( ( -LRB- cord-348636-qqcb85uk 117 15 2006 2006 CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 117 16 ) ) -RRB- cord-348636-qqcb85uk 117 17 . . . cord-348636-qqcb85uk 118 1 Let let VB cord-348636-qqcb85uk 118 2 RðtÞ RðtÞ NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 118 3 be be VB cord-348636-qqcb85uk 118 4 the the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 118 5 number number NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 118 6 of of IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 118 7 cases case NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 118 8 who who WP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 118 9 recover recover VBP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 118 10 or or CC cord-348636-qqcb85uk 118 11 die die VBP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 118 12 at at IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 118 13 time time NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 119 1 t. t. NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 120 1 Given give VBN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 120 2 initial initial JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 120 3 conditions condition NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 120 4 Sð0Þ Sð0Þ NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 120 5 ¼ ¼ NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 120 6 s s NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 120 7 0 0 CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 120 8 ; ; : cord-348636-qqcb85uk 120 9 Eð0Þ eð0þ NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 120 10 ¼ ¼ NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 120 11 e e NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 120 12 and and CC cord-348636-qqcb85uk 120 13 Ið0Þ ið0þ IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 120 14 ¼ ¼ NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 120 15 a a NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 120 16 , , , cord-348636-qqcb85uk 120 17 the the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 120 18 discrete discrete JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 120 19 time time NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 120 20 stochastic stochastic JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 120 21 model model NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 120 22 is be VBZ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 120 23 then then RB cord-348636-qqcb85uk 120 24 given give VBN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 120 25 by by IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 121 1 Eðt Eðt NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 121 2 þ þ NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 121 3 hÞ hÞ NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 121 4 ¼ ¼ CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 122 1 EðtÞ EðtÞ NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 123 1 þ þ NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 124 1 BðtÞ BðtÞ NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 124 2 À À NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 124 3 CðtÞ CðtÞ NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 124 4 ; ; : cord-348636-qqcb85uk 124 5 Iðt Iðt NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 124 6 þ þ NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 125 1 hÞ hÞ NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 125 2 ¼ ¼ CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 126 1 IðtÞ IðtÞ NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 127 1 þ þ NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 128 1 CðtÞ CðtÞ NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 128 2 À à NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 128 3 D d NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 128 4 þ þ NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 128 5 ðtÞ ðtþ NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 128 6 À à NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 128 7 D d NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 128 8 À à NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 128 9 ðtÞ ðtÞ NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 128 10 ð ð NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 128 11 3Þ 3þ NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 128 12 Notations Notations NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 128 13 Bin Bin NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 128 14 ðn ðn NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 128 15 ; ; : cord-348636-qqcb85uk 128 16 qÞ qþ ADD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 128 17 and and CC cord-348636-qqcb85uk 128 18 Po Po NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 128 19 ðmÞ ðmÞ NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 128 20 represent represent VBP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 128 21 a a DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 128 22 binomial binomial JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 128 23 distribution distribution NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 128 24 with with IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 128 25 parameters parameter NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 128 26 n n NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 128 27 and and CC cord-348636-qqcb85uk 128 28 q q NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 128 29 ( ( -LRB- cord-348636-qqcb85uk 128 30 success success NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 128 31 probability probability NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 128 32 ) ) -RRB- cord-348636-qqcb85uk 128 33 and and CC cord-348636-qqcb85uk 128 34 a a DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 128 35 Poisson Poisson NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 128 36 distribution distribution NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 128 37 with with IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 128 38 mean mean JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 128 39 m m NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 128 40 , , , cord-348636-qqcb85uk 128 41 respectively respectively RB cord-348636-qqcb85uk 128 42 . . . cord-348636-qqcb85uk 129 1 The the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 129 2 back back JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 129 3 - - HYPH cord-348636-qqcb85uk 129 4 projection projection NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 129 5 approach approach NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 129 6 ( ( -LRB- cord-348636-qqcb85uk 129 7 Brookmeyer Brookmeyer NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 129 8 and and CC cord-348636-qqcb85uk 129 9 Gail Gail NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 129 10 , , , cord-348636-qqcb85uk 129 11 1986 1986 CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 129 12 ) ) -RRB- cord-348636-qqcb85uk 129 13 is be VBZ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 129 14 used use VBN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 129 15 in in IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 129 16 the the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 129 17 previous previous JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 129 18 equation equation NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 129 19 to to TO cord-348636-qqcb85uk 129 20 construct construct VB cord-348636-qqcb85uk 129 21 the the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 129 22 means mean NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 129 23 for for IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 129 24 the the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 129 25 Poisson Poisson NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 129 26 distributions distribution NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 129 27 . . . cord-348636-qqcb85uk 130 1 This this DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 130 2 approach approach NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 130 3 has have VBZ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 130 4 been be VBN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 130 5 shown show VBN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 130 6 to to TO cord-348636-qqcb85uk 130 7 be be VB cord-348636-qqcb85uk 130 8 successful successful JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 130 9 in in IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 130 10 epidemic epidemic NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 130 11 modelling modelling NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 130 12 ( ( -LRB- cord-348636-qqcb85uk 130 13 Becker Becker NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 130 14 , , , cord-348636-qqcb85uk 130 15 Watson Watson NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 130 16 and and CC cord-348636-qqcb85uk 130 17 Carlin Carlin NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 130 18 , , , cord-348636-qqcb85uk 130 19 1991 1991 CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 130 20 ; ; : cord-348636-qqcb85uk 130 21 Becker Becker NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 130 22 und und IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 130 23 Xu Xu NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 130 24 , , , cord-348636-qqcb85uk 130 25 1994 1994 CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 130 26 ) ) -RRB- cord-348636-qqcb85uk 130 27 and and CC cord-348636-qqcb85uk 130 28 particularly particularly RB cord-348636-qqcb85uk 130 29 in in IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 130 30 reconstructing reconstruct VBG cord-348636-qqcb85uk 130 31 SARS SARS NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 130 32 epidemics epidemic NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 130 33 ( ( -LRB- cord-348636-qqcb85uk 130 34 Chau Chau NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 130 35 and and CC cord-348636-qqcb85uk 130 36 Yip Yip NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 130 37 , , , cord-348636-qqcb85uk 130 38 2003a 2003a CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 130 39 , , , cord-348636-qqcb85uk 130 40 b b LS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 130 41 ) ) -RRB- cord-348636-qqcb85uk 130 42 . . . cord-348636-qqcb85uk 131 1 Introduction introduction NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 131 2 of of IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 131 3 control control NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 131 4 interventions intervention NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 131 5 will will MD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 131 6 usually usually RB cord-348636-qqcb85uk 131 7 reduce reduce VB cord-348636-qqcb85uk 131 8 the the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 131 9 transmission transmission NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 131 10 parameter parameter NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 131 11 bðtÞ. bðtÞ. NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 131 12 Capturing capture VBG cord-348636-qqcb85uk 131 13 the the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 131 14 change change NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 131 15 in in IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 131 16 bðtÞ bðtþ CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 131 17 as as IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 131 18 the the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 131 19 epidemic epidemic NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 131 20 progresses progress VBZ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 131 21 is be VBZ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 131 22 made make VBN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 131 23 difficult difficult JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 131 24 by by IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 131 25 the the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 131 26 fact fact NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 131 27 that that IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 131 28 there there EX cord-348636-qqcb85uk 131 29 is be VBZ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 131 30 usually usually RB cord-348636-qqcb85uk 131 31 little little JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 131 32 or or CC cord-348636-qqcb85uk 131 33 no no DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 131 34 information information NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 131 35 to to TO cord-348636-qqcb85uk 131 36 be be VB cord-348636-qqcb85uk 131 37 used use VBN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 131 38 to to TO cord-348636-qqcb85uk 131 39 quantify quantify VB cord-348636-qqcb85uk 131 40 the the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 131 41 changes change NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 131 42 in in IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 131 43 the the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 131 44 transmission transmission NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 131 45 parameter parameter NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 131 46 . . . cord-348636-qqcb85uk 132 1 Riley Riley NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 132 2 et et NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 132 3 al al NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 132 4 . . . cord-348636-qqcb85uk 133 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-348636-qqcb85uk 133 2 2003 2003 CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 133 3 ) ) -RRB- cord-348636-qqcb85uk 133 4 assumed assume VBD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 133 5 for for IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 133 6 simplicity simplicity NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 133 7 that that WDT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 133 8 bðtÞ bðtÞ NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 133 9 took take VBD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 133 10 three three CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 133 11 different different JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 133 12 values value NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 133 13 on on IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 133 14 three three CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 133 15 equally equally RB cord-348636-qqcb85uk 133 16 spaced spaced JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 133 17 time time NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 133 18 periods period NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 133 19 over over IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 133 20 the the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 133 21 whole whole JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 133 22 observation observation NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 133 23 period period NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 133 24 . . . cord-348636-qqcb85uk 134 1 Choosing choose VBG cord-348636-qqcb85uk 134 2 the the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 134 3 number number NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 134 4 of of IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 134 5 change change NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 134 6 points point NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 134 7 may may MD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 134 8 be be VB cord-348636-qqcb85uk 134 9 difficult difficult JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 134 10 and and CC cord-348636-qqcb85uk 134 11 as as IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 134 12 such such JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 134 13 modelling modelling NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 134 14 bðtÞ bðtþ CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 134 15 as as IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 134 16 described describe VBN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 134 17 above above RB cord-348636-qqcb85uk 134 18 may may MD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 134 19 be be VB cord-348636-qqcb85uk 134 20 difficult difficult JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 134 21 to to TO cord-348636-qqcb85uk 134 22 implement implement VB cord-348636-qqcb85uk 134 23 . . . cord-348636-qqcb85uk 135 1 Usually usually RB cord-348636-qqcb85uk 135 2 , , , cord-348636-qqcb85uk 135 3 the the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 135 4 time time NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 135 5 at at IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 135 6 which which WDT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 135 7 control control NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 135 8 interventions intervention NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 135 9 are be VBP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 135 10 introduced introduce VBN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 135 11 is be VBZ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 135 12 known know VBN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 135 13 . . . cord-348636-qqcb85uk 136 1 To to TO cord-348636-qqcb85uk 136 2 avoid avoid VB cord-348636-qqcb85uk 136 3 the the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 136 4 problem problem NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 136 5 of of IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 136 6 change change NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 136 7 points point NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 136 8 , , , cord-348636-qqcb85uk 136 9 it -PRON- PRP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 136 10 is be VBZ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 136 11 assumed assume VBN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 136 12 that that IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 136 13 the the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 136 14 transmission transmission NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 136 15 parameter parameter NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 136 16 bðtÞ bðtþ CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 136 17 is be VBZ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 136 18 constant constant JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 136 19 up up RP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 136 20 to to IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 136 21 the the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 136 22 time time NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 136 23 point point NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 136 24 when when WRB cord-348636-qqcb85uk 136 25 the the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 136 26 control control NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 136 27 measures measure NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 136 28 are be VBP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 136 29 introduced introduce VBN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 136 30 and and CC cord-348636-qqcb85uk 136 31 after after IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 136 32 that that DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 136 33 decays decay VBZ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 136 34 exponentially exponentially RB cord-348636-qqcb85uk 136 35 . . . cord-348636-qqcb85uk 137 1 This this DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 137 2 can can MD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 137 3 be be VB cord-348636-qqcb85uk 137 4 formulated formulate VBN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 137 5 as as IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 137 6 follows follow VBZ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 137 7 where where WRB cord-348636-qqcb85uk 137 8 t t NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 137 9 * * NFP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 137 10 is be VBZ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 137 11 the the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 137 12 time time NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 137 13 point point NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 137 14 at at IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 137 15 which which WDT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 137 16 control control NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 137 17 measures measure NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 137 18 are be VBP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 137 19 introduced introduce VBN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 137 20 , , , cord-348636-qqcb85uk 137 21 b b LS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 137 22 is be VBZ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 137 23 the the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 137 24 initial initial JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 137 25 transmission transmission NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 137 26 rate rate NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 137 27 and and CC cord-348636-qqcb85uk 137 28 q q NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 137 29 > > XX cord-348636-qqcb85uk 137 30 0 0 NFP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 137 31 is be VBZ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 137 32 the the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 137 33 rate rate NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 137 34 at at IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 137 35 which which WDT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 137 36 bðtÞ bðtþ DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 137 37 decays decay VBZ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 137 38 for for IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 137 39 t t NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 138 1 > > XX cord-348636-qqcb85uk 139 1 t t NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 140 1 * * NFP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 140 2 . . . cord-348636-qqcb85uk 141 1 The the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 141 2 same same JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 141 3 form form NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 141 4 of of IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 141 5 bðtÞ bðtÞ NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 141 6 has have VBZ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 141 7 been be VBN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 141 8 used use VBN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 141 9 successfully successfully RB cord-348636-qqcb85uk 141 10 by by IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 141 11 Lekone Lekone NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 141 12 and and CC cord-348636-qqcb85uk 141 13 Finkenstådt Finkenstådt NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 141 14 ( ( -LRB- cord-348636-qqcb85uk 141 15 2006 2006 CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 141 16 ) ) -RRB- cord-348636-qqcb85uk 141 17 to to TO cord-348636-qqcb85uk 141 18 model model VB cord-348636-qqcb85uk 141 19 control control NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 141 20 interventions intervention NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 141 21 in in IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 141 22 Ebola Ebola NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 141 23 epidemics epidemic NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 141 24 and and CC cord-348636-qqcb85uk 141 25 a a DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 141 26 similar similar JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 141 27 form form NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 141 28 has have VBZ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 141 29 been be VBN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 141 30 applied apply VBN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 141 31 by by IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 141 32 Chowell Chowell NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 141 33 et et FW cord-348636-qqcb85uk 141 34 al al NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 141 35 . . . cord-348636-qqcb85uk 142 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-348636-qqcb85uk 142 2 2004 2004 CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 142 3 ) ) -RRB- cord-348636-qqcb85uk 142 4 . . . cord-348636-qqcb85uk 143 1 It -PRON- PRP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 143 2 should should MD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 143 3 however however RB cord-348636-qqcb85uk 143 4 be be VB cord-348636-qqcb85uk 143 5 mentioned mention VBN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 143 6 that that IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 143 7 this this DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 143 8 simple simple JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 143 9 form form NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 143 10 of of IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 143 11 bðtÞ bðtþ CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 143 12 may may MD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 143 13 not not RB cord-348636-qqcb85uk 143 14 capture capture VB cord-348636-qqcb85uk 143 15 the the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 143 16 heterogeneity heterogeneity NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 143 17 in in IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 143 18 SARS SARS NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 143 19 epidemics epidemic NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 143 20 brought bring VBN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 143 21 about about RP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 143 22 by by IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 143 23 superspreader superspreader NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 143 24 events event NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 143 25 ( ( -LRB- cord-348636-qqcb85uk 143 26 rare rare JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 143 27 events event NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 143 28 where where WRB cord-348636-qqcb85uk 143 29 an an DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 143 30 individual individual NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 143 31 may may MD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 143 32 generate generate VB cord-348636-qqcb85uk 143 33 many many JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 143 34 more more JJR cord-348636-qqcb85uk 143 35 than than IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 143 36 the the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 143 37 average average JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 143 38 number number NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 143 39 of of IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 143 40 secondary secondary JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 143 41 cases case NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 143 42 ) ) -RRB- cord-348636-qqcb85uk 143 43 . . . cord-348636-qqcb85uk 144 1 Thus thus RB cord-348636-qqcb85uk 144 2 , , , cord-348636-qqcb85uk 144 3 bðtÞ bðtÞ NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 144 4 is be VBZ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 144 5 used use VBN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 144 6 here here RB cord-348636-qqcb85uk 144 7 for for IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 144 8 simplicity simplicity NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 144 9 . . . cord-348636-qqcb85uk 145 1 The the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 145 2 basic basic JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 145 3 reproduction reproduction NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 145 4 number number NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 145 5 R r NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 145 6 0 0 CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 145 7 is be VBZ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 145 8 defined define VBN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 145 9 as as IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 145 10 the the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 145 11 average average JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 145 12 number number NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 145 13 of of IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 145 14 secondary secondary JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 145 15 cases case NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 145 16 generated generate VBN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 145 17 by by IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 145 18 a a DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 145 19 primary primary JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 145 20 case case NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 145 21 over over IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 145 22 his -PRON- PRP$ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 145 23 / / SYM cord-348636-qqcb85uk 145 24 her -PRON- PRP$ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 145 25 infectious infectious JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 145 26 period period NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 145 27 when when WRB cord-348636-qqcb85uk 145 28 introduced introduce VBN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 145 29 into into IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 145 30 a a DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 145 31 large large JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 145 32 population population NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 145 33 of of IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 145 34 susceptible susceptible JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 145 35 individuals individual NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 145 36 ( ( -LRB- cord-348636-qqcb85uk 145 37 Diekmann Diekmann NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 145 38 , , , cord-348636-qqcb85uk 145 39 Heesterbeek Heesterbeek NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 145 40 and and CC cord-348636-qqcb85uk 145 41 Metz Metz NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 145 42 , , , cord-348636-qqcb85uk 145 43 1990 1990 CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 145 44 ) ) -RRB- cord-348636-qqcb85uk 145 45 . . . cord-348636-qqcb85uk 146 1 The the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 146 2 constant constant JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 146 3 R r NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 146 4 0 0 CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 146 5 thus thus RB cord-348636-qqcb85uk 146 6 measures measure VBZ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 146 7 the the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 146 8 initial initial JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 146 9 growth growth NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 146 10 rate rate NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 146 11 of of IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 146 12 the the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 146 13 epidemic epidemic NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 146 14 and and CC cord-348636-qqcb85uk 146 15 for for IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 146 16 the the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 146 17 model model NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 146 18 above above IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 146 19 it -PRON- PRP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 146 20 can can MD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 146 21 be be VB cord-348636-qqcb85uk 146 22 shown show VBN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 146 23 that that DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 146 24 ( ( -LRB- cord-348636-qqcb85uk 146 25 see see VB cord-348636-qqcb85uk 146 26 Riley Riley NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 146 27 et et NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 146 28 al al NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 146 29 . . NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 146 30 , , , cord-348636-qqcb85uk 146 31 2003 2003 CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 146 32 ) ) -RRB- cord-348636-qqcb85uk 147 1 The the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 147 2 time time NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 147 3 dependent dependent JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 147 4 effective effective JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 147 5 reproduction reproduction NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 147 6 number number NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 147 7 R r NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 147 8 0 0 CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 147 9 ðtÞ ðtÞ NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 147 10 ¼ ¼ NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 147 11 bðtÞ bðtÞ NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 147 12 ½pm ½pm NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 147 13 À à NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 147 14 þ þ NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 148 1 ð1 ð1 NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 148 2 À à NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 148 3 pÞ pþ NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 149 1 m m NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 149 2 þ þ NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 149 3 is be VBZ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 149 4 the the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 149 5 number number NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 149 6 of of IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 149 7 secondary secondary JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 149 8 cases case NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 149 9 per per IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 149 10 infectious infectious JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 149 11 case case NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 149 12 at at IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 149 13 time time NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 149 14 t t NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 149 15 and and CC cord-348636-qqcb85uk 149 16 the the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 149 17 time time NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 149 18 point point NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 149 19 at at IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 149 20 which which WDT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 149 21 R r NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 149 22 0 0 CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 149 23 ðtÞ ðtÞ NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 149 24 assumes assume VBZ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 149 25 values value NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 149 26 smaller small JJR cord-348636-qqcb85uk 149 27 than than IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 149 28 one one CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 149 29 indicates indicate VBZ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 149 30 when when WRB cord-348636-qqcb85uk 149 31 control control NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 149 32 measures measure NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 149 33 have have VBP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 149 34 become become VBN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 149 35 effective effective JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 149 36 in in IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 149 37 controlling control VBG cord-348636-qqcb85uk 149 38 the the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 149 39 epidemic epidemic NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 149 40 . . . cord-348636-qqcb85uk 150 1 Let let VB cord-348636-qqcb85uk 150 2 t t PRP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 150 3 denote denote VB cord-348636-qqcb85uk 150 4 the the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 150 5 end end NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 150 6 of of IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 150 7 the the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 150 8 observation observation NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 150 9 period period NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 150 10 and and CC cord-348636-qqcb85uk 150 11 let let VB cord-348636-qqcb85uk 151 1 B B NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 151 2 ¼ ¼ NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 151 3 fBðtÞg fbðtþg WRB cord-348636-qqcb85uk 151 4 t t NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 151 5 t¼0 t¼0 NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 151 6 represent represent VBP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 151 7 the the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 151 8 time time NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 151 9 series series NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 151 10 of of IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 151 11 BðtÞ BðtÞ NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 151 12 from from IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 151 13 the the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 151 14 beginning beginning NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 151 15 to to IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 151 16 the the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 151 17 end end NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 151 18 of of IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 151 19 the the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 151 20 observation observation NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 151 21 period period NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 151 22 and and CC cord-348636-qqcb85uk 151 23 define define VB cord-348636-qqcb85uk 151 24 C c NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 151 25 ; ; : cord-348636-qqcb85uk 151 26 D D NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 151 27 þ þ NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 151 28 and and CC cord-348636-qqcb85uk 151 29 D d NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 151 30 À à NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 151 31 similarly similarly RB cord-348636-qqcb85uk 151 32 . . . cord-348636-qqcb85uk 152 1 The the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 152 2 epidemic epidemic NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 152 3 model model NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 152 4 specified specify VBN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 152 5 in in IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 152 6 ( ( -LRB- cord-348636-qqcb85uk 152 7 1 1 CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 152 8 ) ) -RRB- cord-348636-qqcb85uk 152 9 to to IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 152 10 ( ( -LRB- cord-348636-qqcb85uk 152 11 6 6 LS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 152 12 ) ) -RRB- cord-348636-qqcb85uk 152 13 together together RB cord-348636-qqcb85uk 152 14 with with IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 152 15 the the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 152 16 contact contact NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 152 17 rate rate NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 152 18 ( ( -LRB- cord-348636-qqcb85uk 152 19 7 7 CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 152 20 ) ) -RRB- cord-348636-qqcb85uk 152 21 has have VBZ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 152 22 parameter parameter NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 152 23 vector vector NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 152 24 Q q NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 152 25 ¼ ¼ NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 152 26 fb fb NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 152 27 ; ; : cord-348636-qqcb85uk 152 28 qg qg NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 152 29 which which WDT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 152 30 we -PRON- PRP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 152 31 would would MD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 152 32 like like VB cord-348636-qqcb85uk 152 33 to to TO cord-348636-qqcb85uk 152 34 estimate estimate VB cord-348636-qqcb85uk 152 35 from from IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 152 36 knowledge knowledge NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 152 37 of of IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 152 38 initial initial JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 152 39 conditions condition NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 152 40 , , , cord-348636-qqcb85uk 152 41 population population NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 152 42 size size NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 152 43 and and CC cord-348636-qqcb85uk 152 44 from from IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 152 45 observation observation NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 152 46 of of IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 152 47 fC fc CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 152 48 ; ; : cord-348636-qqcb85uk 152 49 D D NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 152 50 þ þ NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 152 51 ; ; : cord-348636-qqcb85uk 152 52 D d NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 152 53 À à FW cord-348636-qqcb85uk 152 54 g g NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 153 1 and and CC cord-348636-qqcb85uk 153 2 from from IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 153 3 knowledge knowledge NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 153 4 of of IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 153 5 p p NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 153 6 and and CC cord-348636-qqcb85uk 153 7 the the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 153 8 parameters parameter NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 153 9 of of IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 153 10 the the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 153 11 distributions distribution NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 153 12 of of IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 153 13 T t NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 153 14 E e NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 153 15 ; ; : cord-348636-qqcb85uk 153 16 T T NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 153 17 À à NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 153 18 and and CC cord-348636-qqcb85uk 153 19 T T NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 153 20 þ þ NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 153 21 . . . cord-348636-qqcb85uk 154 1 Consideration consideration NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 154 2 of of IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 154 3 these these DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 154 4 data datum NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 154 5 is be VBZ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 154 6 motivated motivate VBN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 154 7 by by IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 154 8 the the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 154 9 observed observed JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 154 10 SARS SARS NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 154 11 data datum NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 154 12 discussed discuss VBN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 154 13 in in IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 154 14 the the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 154 15 previous previous JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 154 16 section section NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 154 17 . . . cord-348636-qqcb85uk 155 1 The the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 155 2 time time NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 155 3 series series NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 155 4 fIðtÞg fIðtÞg NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 155 5 is be VBZ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 155 6 in in IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 155 7 this this DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 155 8 case case NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 155 9 fully fully RB cord-348636-qqcb85uk 155 10 determined determine VBN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 155 11 by by IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 155 12 iterating iterate VBG cord-348636-qqcb85uk 155 13 ( ( -LRB- cord-348636-qqcb85uk 155 14 3 3 CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 155 15 ) ) -RRB- cord-348636-qqcb85uk 155 16 from from IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 155 17 the the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 155 18 initial initial JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 155 19 condition condition NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 155 20 a. a. NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 156 1 In in IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 156 2 reality reality NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 156 3 , , , cord-348636-qqcb85uk 156 4 the the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 156 5 series series NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 156 6 B B NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 156 7 is be VBZ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 156 8 not not RB cord-348636-qqcb85uk 156 9 observed observe VBN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 156 10 . . . cord-348636-qqcb85uk 157 1 If if IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 157 2 B B NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 157 3 was be VBD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 157 4 observed observe VBN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 157 5 , , , cord-348636-qqcb85uk 157 6 then then RB cord-348636-qqcb85uk 157 7 the the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 157 8 series series NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 157 9 fSðtÞg fSðtÞg NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 157 10 would would MD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 157 11 be be VB cord-348636-qqcb85uk 157 12 determined determine VBN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 157 13 by by IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 157 14 iterating iterate VBG cord-348636-qqcb85uk 157 15 ( ( -LRB- cord-348636-qqcb85uk 157 16 1 1 CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 157 17 ) ) -RRB- cord-348636-qqcb85uk 157 18 _SP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 157 19 where where WRB cord-348636-qqcb85uk 157 20 Bin Bin NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 157 21 ðx ðx NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 157 22 ; ; : cord-348636-qqcb85uk 158 1 n n NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 158 2 ; ; : cord-348636-qqcb85uk 158 3 pÞ pÞ NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 158 4 represents represent VBZ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 158 5 a a DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 158 6 binomial binomial JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 158 7 distribution distribution NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 158 8 with with IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 158 9 parameters parameter NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 158 10 n n NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 158 11 and and CC cord-348636-qqcb85uk 158 12 p p NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 158 13 and and CC cord-348636-qqcb85uk 158 14 evaluated evaluate VBD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 158 15 at at IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 158 16 the the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 158 17 point point NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 158 18 x. x. NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 159 1 The the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 159 2 unobserved unobserved JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 159 3 series series NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 159 4 B B NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 159 5 is be VBZ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 159 6 imputed impute VBN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 159 7 using use VBG cord-348636-qqcb85uk 159 8 MCMC MCMC NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 159 9 methods method NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 159 10 which which WDT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 159 11 allow allow VBP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 159 12 for for IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 159 13 numerical numerical JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 159 14 integration integration NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 159 15 over over IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 159 16 the the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 159 17 distribution distribution NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 159 18 of of IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 159 19 the the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 159 20 unobserved unobserved JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 159 21 process process NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 159 22 . . . cord-348636-qqcb85uk 160 1 Proposals proposal NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 160 2 for for IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 160 3 B B NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 160 4 are be VBP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 160 5 generated generate VBN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 160 6 and and CC cord-348636-qqcb85uk 160 7 accepted accept VBN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 160 8 according accord VBG cord-348636-qqcb85uk 160 9 to to IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 160 10 a a DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 160 11 Metropolis Metropolis NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 160 12 Hastings Hastings NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 160 13 step step NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 160 14 similar similar JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 160 15 to to IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 160 16 the the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 160 17 one one NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 160 18 described describe VBN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 160 19 in in IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 160 20 Lekone Lekone NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 160 21 and and CC cord-348636-qqcb85uk 160 22 Finkenstådt Finkenstådt NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 160 23 ( ( -LRB- cord-348636-qqcb85uk 160 24 2006 2006 CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 160 25 ) ) -RRB- cord-348636-qqcb85uk 160 26 . . . cord-348636-qqcb85uk 161 1 Let let VB cord-348636-qqcb85uk 161 2 W W NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 161 3 be be VB cord-348636-qqcb85uk 161 4 the the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 161 5 set set NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 161 6 containing containing NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 161 7 means mean NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 161 8 and and CC cord-348636-qqcb85uk 161 9 variances variance NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 161 10 of of IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 161 11 distributions distribution NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 161 12 of of IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 161 13 T t NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 161 14 E e NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 161 15 ; ; : cord-348636-qqcb85uk 161 16 T T NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 161 17 þ þ NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 161 18 and and CC cord-348636-qqcb85uk 161 19 T T NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 161 20 À à NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 161 21 . . . cord-348636-qqcb85uk 162 1 By by IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 162 2 using use VBG cord-348636-qqcb85uk 162 3 the the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 162 4 fact fact NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 162 5 that that IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 162 6 BðtÞ BðtÞ NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 162 7 ; ; : cord-348636-qqcb85uk 162 8 CðtÞ CðtÞ NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 162 9 ; ; : cord-348636-qqcb85uk 162 10 D D NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 162 11 þ þ NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 162 12 ðtÞ ðtÞ NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 162 13 and and CC cord-348636-qqcb85uk 162 14 D d NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 162 15 À à NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 162 16 ðtÞ ðtÞ NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 162 17 are be VBP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 162 18 conditionally conditionally RB cord-348636-qqcb85uk 162 19 independent independent JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 162 20 gives give VBZ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 162 21 the the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 162 22 augmented augment VBN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 162 23 likelihood likelihood NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 162 24 for for IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 162 25 the the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 162 26 data datum NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 162 27 as as IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 162 28 Bin Bin NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 162 29 ðBðtÞ ðBðtÞ NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 162 30 ; ; : cord-348636-qqcb85uk 162 31 SðtÞ SðtÞ NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 162 32 ; ; : cord-348636-qqcb85uk 162 33 PðtÞÞ PðtÞÞ NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 162 34 Po Po NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 162 35 ðCðtÞ ðCðtÞ NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 162 36 ; ; : cord-348636-qqcb85uk 162 37 l l NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 162 38 t t NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 162 39 Þ Þ NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 162 40 Po Po NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 162 41 ðD ðD NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 162 42 À à NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 162 43 ðtÞ ðtþ NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 162 44 ; ; . cord-348636-qqcb85uk 163 1 h h NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 163 2 À à NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 163 3 t t NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 163 4 Þ þ NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 163 5 Po po NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 163 6 ðD ðD NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 164 1 þ þ LS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 164 2 ðtÞ ðtÞ NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 164 3 ; ; : cord-348636-qqcb85uk 164 4 h h NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 164 5 þ þ NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 164 6 t t NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 164 7 Þ Þ NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 164 8 where where WRB cord-348636-qqcb85uk 164 9 Po Po NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 164 10 ðx ðx NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 164 11 ; ; : cord-348636-qqcb85uk 164 12 mÞ mÞ NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 164 13 represents represent VBZ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 164 14 a a DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 164 15 Poisson Poisson NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 164 16 distribution distribution NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 164 17 with with IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 164 18 mean mean JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 164 19 m m NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 164 20 evaluated evaluate VBD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 164 21 at at IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 164 22 the the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 164 23 point point NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 164 24 x. x. NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 165 1 Multiplying multiply VBG cord-348636-qqcb85uk 165 2 ( ( -LRB- cord-348636-qqcb85uk 165 3 10 10 CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 165 4 ) ) -RRB- cord-348636-qqcb85uk 165 5 by by IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 165 6 the the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 165 7 prior prior JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 165 8 pðQÞ pðQÞ NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 165 9 gives give VBZ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 165 10 , , , cord-348636-qqcb85uk 165 11 up up IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 165 12 to to IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 165 13 a a DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 165 14 constant constant NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 165 15 of of IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 165 16 proportionality proportionality NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 165 17 , , , cord-348636-qqcb85uk 165 18 the the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 165 19 posterior posterior JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 165 20 distribution distribution NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 165 21 pðQ pðq XX cord-348636-qqcb85uk 165 22 ; ; : cord-348636-qqcb85uk 165 23 B b NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 165 24 j j NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 165 25 C C NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 165 26 ; ; : cord-348636-qqcb85uk 165 27 D D NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 165 28 þ þ NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 165 29 ; ; : cord-348636-qqcb85uk 165 30 D d NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 165 31 À à NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 165 32 ; ; : cord-348636-qqcb85uk 165 33 WÞ WÞ NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 165 34 / / SYM cord-348636-qqcb85uk 165 35 LðB lðb NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 165 36 ; ; : cord-348636-qqcb85uk 165 37 C C NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 165 38 ; ; : cord-348636-qqcb85uk 165 39 D D NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 165 40 þ þ NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 165 41 ; ; : cord-348636-qqcb85uk 165 42 D D NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 165 43 À à NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 165 44 ; ; : cord-348636-qqcb85uk 165 45 W W NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 165 46 j j NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 165 47 QÞ QÞ NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 165 48 pðQÞ pðQÞ NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 165 49 ð ð NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 165 50 11Þ 11þ CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 165 51 that that IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 165 52 we -PRON- PRP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 165 53 wish wish VBP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 165 54 to to TO cord-348636-qqcb85uk 165 55 sample sample VB cord-348636-qqcb85uk 165 56 from from IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 165 57 . . . cord-348636-qqcb85uk 166 1 An an DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 166 2 MCMC MCMC NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 166 3 algorithm algorithm NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 166 4 that that IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 166 5 samples sample NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 166 6 in in IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 166 7 turn turn NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 166 8 from from IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 166 9 the the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 166 10 conditional conditional JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 166 11 distributions distribution NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 166 12 pðB pðB NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 166 13 j j NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 166 14 C C NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 166 15 ; ; : cord-348636-qqcb85uk 166 16 D D NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 166 17 þ þ NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 166 18 ; ; : cord-348636-qqcb85uk 166 19 D D NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 166 20 À à NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 166 21 ; ; : cord-348636-qqcb85uk 166 22 W w NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 166 23 ; ; : cord-348636-qqcb85uk 166 24 QÞ QÞ NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 166 25 and and CC cord-348636-qqcb85uk 166 26 pðQ pðQ NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 166 27 j j NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 166 28 B B NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 166 29 ; ; : cord-348636-qqcb85uk 166 30 C C NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 166 31 ; ; : cord-348636-qqcb85uk 166 32 D D NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 166 33 þ þ NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 166 34 ; ; : cord-348636-qqcb85uk 166 35 D d NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 166 36 À à NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 166 37 ; ; : cord-348636-qqcb85uk 166 38 WÞ WÞ NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 166 39 produces produce VBZ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 166 40 draws draw NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 166 41 from from IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 166 42 the the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 166 43 desired desire VBN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 166 44 pðQ pðQ NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 166 45 ; ; : cord-348636-qqcb85uk 166 46 B b NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 166 47 j j NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 166 48 C C NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 166 49 ; ; : cord-348636-qqcb85uk 166 50 D D NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 166 51 þ þ NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 166 52 ; ; : cord-348636-qqcb85uk 166 53 D d NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 166 54 À à NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 166 55 ; ; : cord-348636-qqcb85uk 166 56 WÞ WÞ NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 166 57 . . . cord-348636-qqcb85uk 167 1 Preliminary preliminary JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 167 2 analysis analysis NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 167 3 showed show VBD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 167 4 that that IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 167 5 a a DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 167 6 posteriori posteriori NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 167 7 , , , cord-348636-qqcb85uk 167 8 the the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 167 9 parameters parameter NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 167 10 b b NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 167 11 and and CC cord-348636-qqcb85uk 167 12 q q NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 167 13 were be VBD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 167 14 correlated correlate VBN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 167 15 and and CC cord-348636-qqcb85uk 167 16 this this DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 167 17 problem problem NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 167 18 was be VBD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 167 19 overcome overcome VBN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 167 20 by by IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 167 21 updating update VBG cord-348636-qqcb85uk 167 22 them -PRON- PRP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 167 23 as as IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 167 24 a a DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 167 25 block block NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 167 26 rather rather RB cord-348636-qqcb85uk 167 27 than than IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 167 28 as as IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 167 29 single single JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 167 30 - - HYPH cord-348636-qqcb85uk 167 31 site site NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 167 32 updates update NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 167 33 . . . cord-348636-qqcb85uk 168 1 The the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 168 2 performance performance NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 168 3 of of IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 168 4 the the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 168 5 algorithm algorithm NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 168 6 is be VBZ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 168 7 tested test VBN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 168 8 by by IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 168 9 applying apply VBG cord-348636-qqcb85uk 168 10 it -PRON- PRP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 168 11 to to IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 168 12 a a DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 168 13 simulated simulated JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 168 14 time time NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 168 15 series series NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 168 16 from from IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 168 17 the the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 168 18 model model NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 168 19 ( ( -LRB- cord-348636-qqcb85uk 168 20 1)-(7 1)-(7 CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 168 21 ) ) -RRB- cord-348636-qqcb85uk 168 22 with with IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 168 23 parameter parameter NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 168 24 values value NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 168 25 s s POS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 168 26 0 0 CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 169 1 ¼ ¼ LS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 169 2 6700000 6700000 CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 170 1 ; ; : cord-348636-qqcb85uk 170 2 e e LS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 170 3 ¼ ¼ NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 170 4 1 1 CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 171 1 ; ; : cord-348636-qqcb85uk 171 2 a a DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 171 3 ¼ ¼ CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 171 4 0 0 CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 171 5 ; ; : cord-348636-qqcb85uk 171 6 b b NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 171 7 ¼ ¼ NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 171 8 0:2 0:2 NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 171 9 ; ; : cord-348636-qqcb85uk 171 10 q q NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 171 11 ¼ ¼ NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 171 12 0:1 0:1 NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 171 13 ; ; : cord-348636-qqcb85uk 171 14 t t NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 171 15 * * NFP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 171 16 ¼ ¼ NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 171 17 40 40 CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 171 18 ; ; : cord-348636-qqcb85uk 171 19 T t NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 171 20 E e NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 171 21 $ $ $ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 171 22 Gð5 gð5 NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 171 23 ; ; : cord-348636-qqcb85uk 171 24 16Þ 16Þ NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 172 1 ; ; : cord-348636-qqcb85uk 172 2 T T NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 172 3 þ þ NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 173 1 $ $ $ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 173 2 Gð27 Gð27 NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 173 3 ; ; : cord-348636-qqcb85uk 173 4 200Þ 200þ CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 173 5 ; ; : cord-348636-qqcb85uk 173 6 T T NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 173 7 À à NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 173 8 $ $ $ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 173 9 Gð24 Gð24 NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 173 10 ; ; : cord-348636-qqcb85uk 173 11 225Þ 225þ CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 173 12 ; ; : cord-348636-qqcb85uk 173 13 p p NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 173 14 ¼ ¼ CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 173 15 0:2 0:2 CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 173 16 and and CC cord-348636-qqcb85uk 173 17 h h NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 173 18 ¼ ¼ NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 173 19 1 1 CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 173 20 . . . cord-348636-qqcb85uk 174 1 The the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 174 2 notation notation NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 174 3 Gðb Gðb NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 175 1 ; ; : cord-348636-qqcb85uk 175 2 cÞ cþ UH cord-348636-qqcb85uk 175 3 represents represent VBZ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 175 4 a a DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 175 5 gamma gamma NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 175 6 distribution distribution NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 175 7 with with IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 175 8 mean mean NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 175 9 b b NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 175 10 and and CC cord-348636-qqcb85uk 175 11 variance variance NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 175 12 c. c. NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 176 1 A a DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 176 2 discrete discrete JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 176 3 approximation approximation NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 176 4 was be VBD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 176 5 used use VBN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 176 6 for for IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 176 7 the the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 176 8 gamma gamma NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 176 9 distributions distribution NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 176 10 . . . cord-348636-qqcb85uk 177 1 These these DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 177 2 parameter parameter NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 177 3 values value NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 177 4 are be VBP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 177 5 , , , cord-348636-qqcb85uk 177 6 as as RB cord-348636-qqcb85uk 177 7 far far RB cord-348636-qqcb85uk 177 8 as as IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 177 9 possible possible JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 177 10 , , , cord-348636-qqcb85uk 177 11 tuned tune VBN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 177 12 to to IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 177 13 the the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 177 14 data datum NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 177 15 as as IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 177 16 they -PRON- PRP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 177 17 are be VBP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 177 18 motivated motivate VBN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 177 19 by by IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 177 20 earlier early JJR cord-348636-qqcb85uk 177 21 studies study NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 177 22 on on IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 177 23 SARS SARS NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 177 24 and and CC cord-348636-qqcb85uk 177 25 by by IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 177 26 what what WP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 177 27 is be VBZ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 177 28 known know VBN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 177 29 about about IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 177 30 its -PRON- PRP$ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 177 31 natural natural JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 177 32 history history NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 177 33 ( ( -LRB- cord-348636-qqcb85uk 177 34 Chowell Chowell NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 177 35 et et FW cord-348636-qqcb85uk 177 36 al al NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 177 37 . . NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 177 38 , , , cord-348636-qqcb85uk 177 39 2003 2003 CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 177 40 ; ; : cord-348636-qqcb85uk 178 1 Leung Leung NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 178 2 et et NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 178 3 al al NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 178 4 . . NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 178 5 , , , cord-348636-qqcb85uk 178 6 2004 2004 CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 178 7 ) ) -RRB- cord-348636-qqcb85uk 178 8 . . . cord-348636-qqcb85uk 179 1 The the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 179 2 simulated simulated JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 179 3 epidemic epidemic NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 179 4 resulted result VBD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 179 5 in in IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 179 6 a a DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 179 7 final final JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 179 8 size size NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 179 9 ( ( -LRB- cord-348636-qqcb85uk 179 10 total total JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 179 11 number number NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 179 12 of of IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 179 13 susceptible susceptible JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 179 14 individuals individual NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 179 15 who who WP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 179 16 get get VBP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 179 17 infected infect VBN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 179 18 during during IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 179 19 the the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 179 20 course course NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 179 21 of of IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 179 22 the the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 179 23 epidemic epidemic NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 179 24 ) ) -RRB- cord-348636-qqcb85uk 179 25 of of IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 179 26 731 731 CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 179 27 with with IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 179 28 155 155 CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 179 29 of of IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 179 30 the the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 179 31 cases case NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 179 32 being be VBG cord-348636-qqcb85uk 179 33 fatal fatal JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 179 34 and and CC cord-348636-qqcb85uk 179 35 557 557 CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 179 36 having have VBG cord-348636-qqcb85uk 179 37 recovered recover VBN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 179 38 by by IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 179 39 the the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 179 40 end end NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 179 41 of of IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 179 42 the the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 179 43 epidemic epidemic NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 179 44 after after IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 179 45 t t NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 179 46 ¼ ¼ NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 179 47 122 122 CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 179 48 days day NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 179 49 . . . cord-348636-qqcb85uk 180 1 The the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 180 2 MCMC MCMC NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 180 3 algorithm algorithm NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 180 4 is be VBZ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 180 5 applied apply VBN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 180 6 to to IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 180 7 the the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 180 8 simulated simulated JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 180 9 data datum NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 180 10 pretending pretend VBG cord-348636-qqcb85uk 180 11 that that DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 180 12 B b NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 180 13 is be VBZ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 180 14 unobserved unobserved JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 180 15 . . . cord-348636-qqcb85uk 181 1 Initially initially RB cord-348636-qqcb85uk 181 2 , , , cord-348636-qqcb85uk 181 3 the the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 181 4 performance performance NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 181 5 of of IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 181 6 the the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 181 7 back back JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 181 8 - - HYPH cord-348636-qqcb85uk 181 9 projection projection NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 181 10 method method NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 181 11 in in IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 181 12 reconstructing reconstruct VBG cord-348636-qqcb85uk 181 13 the the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 181 14 series series NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 181 15 is be VBZ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 181 16 inspected inspect VBN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 181 17 . . . cord-348636-qqcb85uk 182 1 In in IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 182 2 Figure figure NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 182 3 2 2 CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 182 4 the the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 182 5 simulated simulated JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 182 6 series series NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 182 7 C C NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 182 8 ; ; : cord-348636-qqcb85uk 182 9 D D NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 182 10 þ þ NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 182 11 and and CC cord-348636-qqcb85uk 182 12 D D NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 182 13 À à NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 182 14 are be VBP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 182 15 shown show VBN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 182 16 along along IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 182 17 with with IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 182 18 their -PRON- PRP$ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 182 19 means mean NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 182 20 estimated estimate VBN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 182 21 via via IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 182 22 the the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 182 23 back back JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 182 24 - - HYPH cord-348636-qqcb85uk 182 25 projection projection NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 182 26 method method NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 182 27 . . . cord-348636-qqcb85uk 183 1 Figure figure NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 183 2 2 2 CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 183 3 suggests suggest VBZ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 183 4 that that IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 183 5 the the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 183 6 back back JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 183 7 - - HYPH cord-348636-qqcb85uk 183 8 projection projection NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 183 9 method method NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 183 10 produces produce VBZ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 183 11 sensible sensible JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 183 12 means mean NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 183 13 in in IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 183 14 all all PDT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 183 15 the the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 183 16 cases case NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 183 17 and and CC cord-348636-qqcb85uk 183 18 hence hence RB cord-348636-qqcb85uk 183 19 a a DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 183 20 Poisson Poisson NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 183 21 distribution distribution NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 183 22 with with IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 184 1 this this DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 184 2 mean mean NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 184 3 will will MD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 184 4 be be VB cord-348636-qqcb85uk 184 5 a a DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 184 6 reasonable reasonable JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 184 7 way way NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 184 8 of of IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 184 9 rejecting reject VBG cord-348636-qqcb85uk 184 10 / / SYM cord-348636-qqcb85uk 184 11 accepting accept VBG cord-348636-qqcb85uk 184 12 proposals proposal NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 184 13 for for IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 184 14 B. B. NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 184 15 Inference Inference NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 185 1 is be VBZ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 185 2 then then RB cord-348636-qqcb85uk 185 3 conducted conduct VBN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 185 4 using use VBG cord-348636-qqcb85uk 185 5 two two CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 185 6 parameter parameter NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 185 7 sets set NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 185 8 for for IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 185 9 the the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 185 10 prior prior JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 185 11 distribution distribution NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 185 12 of of IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 185 13 b b NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 185 14 and and CC cord-348636-qqcb85uk 185 15 q. q. NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 186 1 At at IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 186 2 first first RB cord-348636-qqcb85uk 186 3 , , , cord-348636-qqcb85uk 186 4 a a DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 186 5 non non JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 186 6 - - JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 186 7 informative informative JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 186 8 prior prior JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 186 9 set set NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 186 10 fb fb NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 186 11 $ $ $ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 186 12 Uð0 uð0 NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 186 13 ; ; : cord-348636-qqcb85uk 186 14 1Þ 1þ CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 186 15 ; ; : cord-348636-qqcb85uk 186 16 q q NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 186 17 $ $ $ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 186 18 Uð0 uð0 NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 186 19 ; ; : cord-348636-qqcb85uk 186 20 1Þg 1Þg NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 186 21 is be VBZ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 186 22 used use VBN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 186 23 to to TO cord-348636-qqcb85uk 186 24 run run VB cord-348636-qqcb85uk 186 25 the the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 186 26 MCMC MCMC NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 186 27 algorithm algorithm NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 186 28 followed follow VBN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 186 29 by by IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 186 30 an an DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 186 31 informative informative JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 186 32 prior prior JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 186 33 set set NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 186 34 fb fb NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 186 35 $ $ $ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 186 36 Gð0:2 gð0:2 CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 186 37 ; ; : cord-348636-qqcb85uk 186 38 0:002Þ 0:002þ CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 186 39 ; ; : cord-348636-qqcb85uk 187 1 q q NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 187 2 $ $ $ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 187 3 Gð0:1 gð0:1 CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 187 4 ; ; : cord-348636-qqcb85uk 187 5 0:0005Þg 0:0005þg CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 187 6 . . . cord-348636-qqcb85uk 188 1 The the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 188 2 notation notation NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 188 3 Uða Uða NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 188 4 ; ; , cord-348636-qqcb85uk 188 5 bÞ bÞ NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 188 6 represents represent VBZ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 188 7 a a DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 188 8 uniform uniform JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 188 9 distribution distribution NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 188 10 with with IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 188 11 parameters parameter NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 188 12 a a DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 188 13 and and CC cord-348636-qqcb85uk 188 14 b. b. NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 189 1 In in IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 189 2 each each DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 189 3 case case NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 189 4 , , , cord-348636-qqcb85uk 189 5 after after IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 189 6 discarding discard VBG cord-348636-qqcb85uk 189 7 a a DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 189 8 burn burn NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 189 9 - - HYPH cord-348636-qqcb85uk 189 10 in in RP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 189 11 period period NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 189 12 of of IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 189 13 10 10 CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 189 14 000 000 CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 189 15 , , , cord-348636-qqcb85uk 189 16 a a DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 189 17 sample sample NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 189 18 of of IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 189 19 size size NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 189 20 1000 1000 CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 189 21 taken take VBN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 189 22 every every DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 189 23 1000 1000 CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 189 24 iterations iteration NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 189 25 of of IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 189 26 the the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 189 27 chain chain NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 189 28 was be VBD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 189 29 used use VBN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 189 30 to to TO cord-348636-qqcb85uk 189 31 obtain obtain VB cord-348636-qqcb85uk 189 32 posterior posterior JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 189 33 distributions distribution NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 189 34 . . . cord-348636-qqcb85uk 190 1 Convergence Convergence NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 190 2 was be VBD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 190 3 verified verify VBN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 190 4 using use VBG cord-348636-qqcb85uk 190 5 convergence convergence NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 190 6 diagnostic diagnostic JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 190 7 measures measure NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 190 8 and and CC cord-348636-qqcb85uk 190 9 the the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 190 10 chains chain NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 190 11 were be VBD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 190 12 deemed deem VBN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 190 13 to to TO cord-348636-qqcb85uk 190 14 have have VB cord-348636-qqcb85uk 190 15 converged converge VBN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 190 16 . . . cord-348636-qqcb85uk 191 1 Figure figure NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 191 2 3 3 CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 191 3 shows show VBZ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 191 4 the the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 191 5 estimated estimate VBN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 191 6 posterior posterior JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 191 7 distributions distribution NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 191 8 of of IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 191 9 the the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 191 10 parameters parameter NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 191 11 obtained obtain VBN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 191 12 for for IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 191 13 different different JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 191 14 prior prior JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 191 15 cases case NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 191 16 . . . cord-348636-qqcb85uk 192 1 Posterior posterior JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 192 2 means mean VBZ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 192 3 and and CC cord-348636-qqcb85uk 192 4 standard standard JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 192 5 deviations deviation NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 192 6 are be VBP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 192 7 reported report VBN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 192 8 in in IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 192 9 Table Table NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 192 10 1 1 CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 192 11 . . . cord-348636-qqcb85uk 193 1 In in IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 193 2 all all PDT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 193 3 the the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 193 4 two two CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 193 5 cases case NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 193 6 the the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 193 7 Markov Markov NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 193 8 chain chain NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 193 9 appeared appear VBD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 193 10 to to TO cord-348636-qqcb85uk 193 11 have have VB cord-348636-qqcb85uk 193 12 converged converge VBN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 193 13 after after IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 193 14 the the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 193 15 burn burn NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 193 16 - - HYPH cord-348636-qqcb85uk 193 17 in in RP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 193 18 period period NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 193 19 . . . cord-348636-qqcb85uk 194 1 The the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 194 2 posterior posterior JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 194 3 means mean NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 194 4 are be VBP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 194 5 well well JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 194 6 in in IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 194 7 agreement agreement NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 194 8 with with IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 194 9 the the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 194 10 ML ML NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 194 11 - - HYPH cord-348636-qqcb85uk 194 12 estimate estimate NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 194 13 obtained obtain VBN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 194 14 from from IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 194 15 the the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 194 16 complete complete JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 194 17 data datum NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 194 18 . . . cord-348636-qqcb85uk 195 1 Table table NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 195 2 1 1 CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 195 3 suggests suggest VBZ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 195 4 that that IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 195 5 the the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 195 6 estimation estimation NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 195 7 method method NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 195 8 is be VBZ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 195 9 not not RB cord-348636-qqcb85uk 195 10 very very RB cord-348636-qqcb85uk 195 11 sensitive sensitive JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 195 12 to to IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 195 13 the the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 195 14 choice choice NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 195 15 of of IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 195 16 prior prior JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 195 17 information information NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 195 18 , , , cord-348636-qqcb85uk 195 19 as as IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 195 20 different different JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 195 21 choices choice NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 195 22 result result VBP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 195 23 in in IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 195 24 parameter parameter NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 195 25 estimates estimate NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 195 26 that that WDT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 195 27 are be VBP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 195 28 in in IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 195 29 agreement agreement NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 195 30 with with IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 195 31 the the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 195 32 ML ML NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 195 33 - - HYPH cord-348636-qqcb85uk 195 34 estimate estimate NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 195 35 . . . cord-348636-qqcb85uk 196 1 The the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 196 2 acceptance acceptance NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 196 3 rate rate NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 196 4 for for IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 196 5 the the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 196 6 sampler sampler NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 196 7 for for IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 196 8 B B NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 196 9 was be VBD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 196 10 around around RB cord-348636-qqcb85uk 196 11 70 70 CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 196 12 % % NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 196 13 . . . cord-348636-qqcb85uk 197 1 In in IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 197 2 order order NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 197 3 to to TO cord-348636-qqcb85uk 197 4 assess assess VB cord-348636-qqcb85uk 197 5 model model NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 197 6 fit fit NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 197 7 , , , cord-348636-qqcb85uk 197 8 the the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 197 9 final final JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 197 10 size size NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 197 11 of of IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 197 12 the the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 197 13 epidemic epidemic NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 197 14 was be VBD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 197 15 chosen choose VBN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 197 16 as as IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 197 17 the the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 197 18 discrepancy discrepancy NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 197 19 measure measure NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 197 20 . . . cord-348636-qqcb85uk 198 1 The the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 198 2 posterior posterior JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 198 3 predictive predictive JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 198 4 distribution distribution NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 198 5 of of IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 198 6 final final JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 198 7 sizes size NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 198 8 obtained obtain VBN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 198 9 from from IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 198 10 the the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 198 11 Markov Markov NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 198 12 chain chain NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 198 13 run run NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 198 14 did do VBD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 198 15 not not RB cord-348636-qqcb85uk 198 16 show show VB cord-348636-qqcb85uk 198 17 any any DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 198 18 evidence evidence NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 198 19 of of IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 198 20 lack lack NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 198 21 of of IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 198 22 fit fit JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 198 23 ( ( -LRB- cord-348636-qqcb85uk 198 24 posterior posterior NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 198 25 p p NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 198 26 - - HYPH cord-348636-qqcb85uk 198 27 value value NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 198 28 ¼ ¼ NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 198 29 0.491 0.491 CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 198 30 ) ) -RRB- cord-348636-qqcb85uk 198 31 . . . cord-348636-qqcb85uk 199 1 A a DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 199 2 good good JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 199 3 reference reference NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 199 4 for for IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 199 5 posterior posterior JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 199 6 predictive predictive JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 199 7 distributions distribution NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 199 8 and and CC cord-348636-qqcb85uk 199 9 posterior posterior JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 199 10 p p NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 199 11 - - HYPH cord-348636-qqcb85uk 199 12 values value NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 199 13 is be VBZ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 199 14 Gelman Gelman NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 199 15 , , , cord-348636-qqcb85uk 199 16 Meng Meng NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 199 17 and and CC cord-348636-qqcb85uk 199 18 Stern Stern NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 199 19 ( ( -LRB- cord-348636-qqcb85uk 199 20 1996 1996 CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 199 21 ) ) -RRB- cord-348636-qqcb85uk 199 22 . . . cord-348636-qqcb85uk 200 1 The the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 200 2 algorithm algorithm NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 200 3 described describe VBN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 200 4 above above RB cord-348636-qqcb85uk 200 5 was be VBD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 200 6 then then RB cord-348636-qqcb85uk 200 7 applied apply VBN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 200 8 to to IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 200 9 the the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 200 10 real real JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 200 11 SARS SARS NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 200 12 data datum NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 200 13 set set VBN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 200 14 where where WRB cord-348636-qqcb85uk 200 15 the the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 200 16 unobserved unobserved JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 200 17 process process NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 200 18 B B NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 200 19 was be VBD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 200 20 imputed impute VBN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 200 21 . . . cord-348636-qqcb85uk 201 1 It -PRON- PRP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 201 2 is be VBZ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 201 3 assumed assume VBN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 201 4 that that IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 201 5 there there EX cord-348636-qqcb85uk 201 6 was be VBD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 201 7 initially initially RB cord-348636-qqcb85uk 201 8 one one CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 201 9 exposed expose VBN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 201 10 individual individual NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 201 11 and and CC cord-348636-qqcb85uk 201 12 that that IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 201 13 the the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 201 14 very very RB cord-348636-qqcb85uk 201 15 first first JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 201 16 case case NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 201 17 was be VBD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 201 18 exposed expose VBN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 201 19 for for IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 201 20 five five CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 201 21 days day NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 201 22 using use VBG cord-348636-qqcb85uk 201 23 the the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 201 24 approximate approximate JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 201 25 mean mean NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 201 26 incubation incubation NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 201 27 period period NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 201 28 according accord VBG cord-348636-qqcb85uk 201 29 to to IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 201 30 Leung Leung NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 201 31 et et NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 201 32 al al NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 201 33 . . . cord-348636-qqcb85uk 202 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-348636-qqcb85uk 202 2 2004 2004 CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 202 3 ) ) -RRB- cord-348636-qqcb85uk 202 4 . . . cord-348636-qqcb85uk 203 1 This this DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 203 2 assumption assumption NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 203 3 implies imply VBZ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 203 4 that that IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 203 5 the the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 203 6 outbreak outbreak NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 203 7 started start VBD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 203 8 on on IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 203 9 February February NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 203 10 10 10 CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 203 11 . . . cord-348636-qqcb85uk 204 1 It -PRON- PRP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 204 2 can can MD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 204 3 be be VB cord-348636-qqcb85uk 204 4 deduced deduce VBN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 204 5 from from IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 204 6 Chau Chau NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 204 7 and and CC cord-348636-qqcb85uk 204 8 Yip Yip NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 204 9 ( ( -LRB- cord-348636-qqcb85uk 204 10 2003a 2003a CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 204 11 ) ) -RRB- cord-348636-qqcb85uk 204 12 that that WDT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 204 13 control control NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 204 14 interventions intervention NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 204 15 were be VBD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 204 16 introduced introduce VBN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 204 17 on on IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 204 18 or or CC cord-348636-qqcb85uk 204 19 about about RB cord-348636-qqcb85uk 204 20 30 30 CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 204 21 days day NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 204 22 from from IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 204 23 the the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 204 24 start start NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 204 25 of of IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 204 26 the the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 204 27 epidemic epidemic NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 204 28 implying imply VBG cord-348636-qqcb85uk 204 29 that that IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 204 30 t t NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 204 31 * * NFP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 204 32 ¼ ¼ NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 204 33 30 30 CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 204 34 . . . cord-348636-qqcb85uk 205 1 From from IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 205 2 the the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 205 3 data datum NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 205 4 and and CC cord-348636-qqcb85uk 205 5 the the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 205 6 estimation estimation NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 205 7 of of IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 205 8 Leung Leung NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 205 9 et et NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 205 10 al al NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 205 11 . . . cord-348636-qqcb85uk 206 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-348636-qqcb85uk 206 2 2004 2004 CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 206 3 ) ) -RRB- cord-348636-qqcb85uk 206 4 , , , cord-348636-qqcb85uk 206 5 it -PRON- PRP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 206 6 follows follow VBZ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 206 7 that that IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 206 8 Table Table NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 206 9 1 1 CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 206 10 Parameter parameter NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 206 11 estimates estimate NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 206 12 for for IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 206 13 simulated simulated JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 206 14 data datum NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 206 15 obtained obtain VBN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 206 16 while while IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 206 17 imputing impute VBG cord-348636-qqcb85uk 206 18 B. B. NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 207 1 For for IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 207 2 comparison comparison NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 207 3 , , , cord-348636-qqcb85uk 207 4 the the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 207 5 ML ml NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 207 6 - - HYPH cord-348636-qqcb85uk 207 7 estimate estimate NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 207 8 for for IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 207 9 complete complete JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 207 10 data data NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 207 11 is be VBZ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 207 12 shown show VBN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 207 13 in in IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 207 14 the the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 207 15 first first JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 207 16 row row NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 207 17 . . . cord-348636-qqcb85uk 208 1 The the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 208 2 second second JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 208 3 and and CC cord-348636-qqcb85uk 208 4 third third JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 208 5 row row NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 208 6 give give VBP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 208 7 posterior posterior JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 208 8 means mean NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 208 9 using use VBG cord-348636-qqcb85uk 208 10 an an DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 208 11 informative informative JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 208 12 and and CC cord-348636-qqcb85uk 208 13 a a DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 208 14 non non JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 208 15 - - JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 208 16 informative informative JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 208 17 prior prior JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 208 18 distribution distribution NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 208 19 , , , cord-348636-qqcb85uk 208 20 respectively respectively RB cord-348636-qqcb85uk 208 21 . . . cord-348636-qqcb85uk 209 1 Posterior posterior JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 209 2 standard standard JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 209 3 deviations deviation NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 209 4 are be VBP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 209 5 given give VBN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 209 6 in in IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 209 7 brackets bracket NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 209 8 . . . cord-348636-qqcb85uk 210 1 The the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 210 2 true true JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 210 3 parameter parameter NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 210 4 values value NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 210 5 are be VBP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 210 6 0.2 0.2 CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 210 7 for for IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 210 8 b b NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 210 9 0.1 0.1 CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 210 10 for for IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 210 11 q q NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 210 12 and and CC cord-348636-qqcb85uk 210 13 5.28 5.28 CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 210 14 for for IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 210 15 R r NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 210 16 0 0 CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 210 17 . . . cord-348636-qqcb85uk 211 1 3.88(0.09 3.88(0.09 LS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 211 2 ) ) -RRB- cord-348636-qqcb85uk 212 1 m m NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 212 2 E E NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 212 3 ¼ ¼ NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 212 4 4:6 4:6 CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 212 5 ; ; : cord-348636-qqcb85uk 212 6 s s NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 212 7 2 2 CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 212 8 E e NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 212 9 ¼ ¼ NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 212 10 15:9 15:9 CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 212 11 ; ; : cord-348636-qqcb85uk 212 12 m m NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 212 13 þ þ NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 212 14 ¼ ¼ CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 212 15 26:5 26:5 CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 212 16 ; ; : cord-348636-qqcb85uk 212 17 s s NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 213 1 2 2 LS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 213 2 þ þ NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 213 3 ¼ ¼ NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 213 4 196 196 CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 213 5 ; ; : cord-348636-qqcb85uk 213 6 m m NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 213 7 À à NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 213 8 ¼ ¼ CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 213 9 23:7 23:7 CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 213 10 ; ; : cord-348636-qqcb85uk 213 11 s s NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 213 12 2 2 CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 213 13 À à NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 213 14 ¼ ¼ CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 213 15 222 222 CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 213 16 ; ; : cord-348636-qqcb85uk 213 17 p p NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 213 18 ¼ ¼ NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 213 19 0:172 0:172 CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 213 20 and and CC cord-348636-qqcb85uk 213 21 N n CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 213 22 ¼ ¼ CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 213 23 6:7 6:7 CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 213 24 million million CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 213 25 . . . cord-348636-qqcb85uk 214 1 An an DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 214 2 estimate estimate NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 214 3 for for IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 214 4 p p NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 214 5 was be VBD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 214 6 obtained obtain VBN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 214 7 as as IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 214 8 the the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 214 9 total total JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 214 10 number number NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 214 11 of of IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 214 12 deaths death NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 214 13 divided divide VBN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 214 14 by by IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 214 15 the the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 214 16 sum sum NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 214 17 of of IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 214 18 deaths death NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 214 19 and and CC cord-348636-qqcb85uk 214 20 recoveries recovery NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 214 21 . . . cord-348636-qqcb85uk 215 1 Values value NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 215 2 for for IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 215 3 R r NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 215 4 0 0 CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 215 5 obtained obtain VBN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 215 6 from from IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 215 7 other other JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 215 8 studies study NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 215 9 ( ( -LRB- cord-348636-qqcb85uk 215 10 Wallinga Wallinga NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 215 11 and and CC cord-348636-qqcb85uk 215 12 Tenius Tenius NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 215 13 , , , cord-348636-qqcb85uk 215 14 2004 2004 CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 215 15 ; ; : cord-348636-qqcb85uk 215 16 McBryde McBryde NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 215 17 et et NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 215 18 al al NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 215 19 . . NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 215 20 , , , cord-348636-qqcb85uk 215 21 2006 2006 CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 215 22 ) ) -RRB- cord-348636-qqcb85uk 215 23 together together RB cord-348636-qqcb85uk 215 24 with with IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 215 25 Eq Eq NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 215 26 . . . cord-348636-qqcb85uk 216 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-348636-qqcb85uk 216 2 8) 8) NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 216 3 suggest suggest VBP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 216 4 that that IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 216 5 an an DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 216 6 informative informative JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 216 7 value value NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 216 8 for for IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 216 9 b b NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 216 10 would would MD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 216 11 be be VB cord-348636-qqcb85uk 216 12 around around IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 216 13 0.15 0.15 CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 216 14 . . . cord-348636-qqcb85uk 217 1 Gamma gamma NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 217 2 priors prior NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 217 3 with with IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 217 4 parameters parameter NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 217 5 { { -LRB- cord-348636-qqcb85uk 217 6 ( ( -LRB- cord-348636-qqcb85uk 217 7 0.15 0.15 CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 217 8 , , , cord-348636-qqcb85uk 217 9 0.0015 0.0015 CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 217 10 ) ) -RRB- cord-348636-qqcb85uk 217 11 , , , cord-348636-qqcb85uk 217 12 ( ( -LRB- cord-348636-qqcb85uk 217 13 0.1,0.005 0.1,0.005 CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 217 14 ) ) -RRB- cord-348636-qqcb85uk 217 15 } } -RRB- cord-348636-qqcb85uk 217 16 for for IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 217 17 fb fb NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 218 1 ; ; : cord-348636-qqcb85uk 218 2 qg qg NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 218 3 were be VBD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 218 4 therefore therefore RB cord-348636-qqcb85uk 218 5 chosen choose VBN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 218 6 to to TO cord-348636-qqcb85uk 218 7 be be VB cord-348636-qqcb85uk 218 8 informative informative JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 218 9 . . . cord-348636-qqcb85uk 219 1 After after IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 219 2 discarding discard VBG cord-348636-qqcb85uk 219 3 a a DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 219 4 burn burn NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 219 5 - - HYPH cord-348636-qqcb85uk 219 6 in in RP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 219 7 period period NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 219 8 of of IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 219 9 100 100 CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 219 10 000 000 CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 219 11 , , , cord-348636-qqcb85uk 219 12 a a DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 219 13 sample sample NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 219 14 of of IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 219 15 size size NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 219 16 1000 1000 CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 219 17 taken take VBN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 219 18 every every DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 219 19 1000 1000 CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 219 20 iterations iteration NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 219 21 of of IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 219 22 the the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 219 23 chain chain NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 219 24 was be VBD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 219 25 used use VBN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 219 26 to to TO cord-348636-qqcb85uk 219 27 obtain obtain VB cord-348636-qqcb85uk 219 28 posterior posterior JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 219 29 distributions distribution NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 219 30 and and CC cord-348636-qqcb85uk 219 31 convergence convergence NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 219 32 monitored monitor VBD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 219 33 via via IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 219 34 autocorrelation autocorrelation NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 219 35 functions function NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 219 36 . . . cord-348636-qqcb85uk 220 1 Results result NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 220 2 obtained obtain VBN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 220 3 are be VBP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 220 4 summarized summarize VBN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 220 5 in in IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 220 6 Table Table NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 220 7 2 2 CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 220 8 and and CC cord-348636-qqcb85uk 220 9 in in IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 220 10 Figure figure NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 220 11 4 4 CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 220 12 . . . cord-348636-qqcb85uk 221 1 Results result NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 221 2 obtained obtain VBN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 221 3 with with IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 221 4 a a DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 221 5 vague vague JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 221 6 prior prior NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 221 7 on on IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 221 8 b b NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 221 9 and and CC cord-348636-qqcb85uk 221 10 q q NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 221 11 were be VBD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 221 12 similar similar JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 221 13 to to IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 221 14 the the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 221 15 ones one NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 221 16 reported report VBN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 221 17 in in IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 221 18 Table Table NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 221 19 2 2 CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 221 20 and and CC cord-348636-qqcb85uk 221 21 are be VBP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 221 22 therefore therefore RB cord-348636-qqcb85uk 221 23 not not RB cord-348636-qqcb85uk 221 24 reported report VBN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 221 25 . . . cord-348636-qqcb85uk 222 1 Results result NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 222 2 from from IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 222 3 Table table NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 222 4 2 2 CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 222 5 show show VBP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 222 6 that that IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 222 7 the the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 222 8 estimated estimate VBN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 222 9 value value NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 222 10 of of IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 222 11 R r NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 222 12 0 0 CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 222 13 is be VBZ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 222 14 around around RB cord-348636-qqcb85uk 222 15 3.88 3.88 CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 222 16 with with IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 222 17 a a DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 222 18 posterior posterior JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 222 19 standard standard JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 222 20 deviation deviation NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 222 21 of of IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 222 22 0.09 0.09 CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 222 23 . . . cord-348636-qqcb85uk 223 1 This this DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 223 2 is be VBZ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 223 3 larger large JJR cord-348636-qqcb85uk 223 4 than than IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 223 5 the the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 223 6 value value NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 223 7 of of IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 223 8 2.7 2.7 CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 223 9 estimated estimate VBN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 223 10 by by IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 223 11 Riley Riley NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 223 12 et et NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 223 13 al al NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 223 14 . . . cord-348636-qqcb85uk 224 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-348636-qqcb85uk 224 2 2003 2003 CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 224 3 ) ) -RRB- cord-348636-qqcb85uk 224 4 but but CC cord-348636-qqcb85uk 224 5 smaller small JJR cord-348636-qqcb85uk 224 6 than than IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 224 7 the the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 224 8 value value NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 224 9 of of IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 224 10 4.8 4.8 CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 224 11 estimated estimate VBN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 224 12 by by IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 224 13 McBryde McBryde NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 224 14 et et NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 224 15 al al NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 224 16 . . . cord-348636-qqcb85uk 225 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-348636-qqcb85uk 225 2 2006 2006 CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 225 3 ) ) -RRB- cord-348636-qqcb85uk 225 4 . . . cord-348636-qqcb85uk 226 1 The the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 226 2 estimate estimate NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 226 3 is be VBZ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 226 4 of of IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 226 5 the the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 226 6 same same JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 226 7 magnitude magnitude NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 226 8 as as IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 226 9 the the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 226 10 value value NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 226 11 of of IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 226 12 3.6 3.6 CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 226 13 estimated estimate VBN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 226 14 by by IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 226 15 Wallinga Wallinga NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 226 16 and and CC cord-348636-qqcb85uk 226 17 Tenius Tenius NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 226 18 ( ( -LRB- cord-348636-qqcb85uk 226 19 2004 2004 CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 226 20 ) ) -RRB- cord-348636-qqcb85uk 226 21 . . . cord-348636-qqcb85uk 227 1 The the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 227 2 fact fact NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 227 3 that that IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 227 4 a a DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 227 5 more more RBR cord-348636-qqcb85uk 227 6 precise precise JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 227 7 value value NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 227 8 of of IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 227 9 R r NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 227 10 0 0 CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 227 11 is be VBZ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 227 12 obtained obtain VBN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 227 13 in in IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 227 14 this this DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 227 15 study study NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 227 16 than than IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 227 17 was be VBD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 227 18 previously previously RB cord-348636-qqcb85uk 227 19 obtained obtain VBN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 227 20 from from IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 227 21 other other JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 227 22 studies study NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 227 23 could could MD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 227 24 possibly possibly RB cord-348636-qqcb85uk 227 25 be be VB cord-348636-qqcb85uk 227 26 explained explain VBN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 227 27 by by IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 227 28 the the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 227 29 following follow VBG cord-348636-qqcb85uk 227 30 reasons reason NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 227 31 . . . cord-348636-qqcb85uk 228 1 Firstly firstly RB cord-348636-qqcb85uk 228 2 , , , cord-348636-qqcb85uk 228 3 parametric parametric JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 228 4 forms form NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 228 5 of of IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 228 6 f f NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 228 7 ; ; : cord-348636-qqcb85uk 228 8 g g NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 228 9 þ þ NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 228 10 and and CC cord-348636-qqcb85uk 228 11 g g NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 228 12 À à NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 228 13 already already RB cord-348636-qqcb85uk 228 14 estimated estimate VBN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 228 15 by by IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 228 16 other other JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 228 17 scholars scholar NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 228 18 are be VBP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 228 19 used use VBN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 228 20 and and CC cord-348636-qqcb85uk 228 21 secondly secondly RB cord-348636-qqcb85uk 228 22 unlike unlike IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 228 23 in in IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 228 24 the the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 228 25 case case NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 228 26 of of IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 228 27 Riley Riley NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 228 28 et et NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 228 29 al al NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 228 30 . . . cord-348636-qqcb85uk 229 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-348636-qqcb85uk 229 2 2003 2003 CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 229 3 ) ) -RRB- cord-348636-qqcb85uk 230 1 where where WRB cord-348636-qqcb85uk 230 2 only only RB cord-348636-qqcb85uk 230 3 one one CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 230 4 time time NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 230 5 series series NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 230 6 fCðtÞg fCðtÞg , cord-348636-qqcb85uk 230 7 was be VBD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 230 8 used use VBN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 230 9 , , , cord-348636-qqcb85uk 230 10 this this DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 230 11 time time NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 230 12 series series NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 230 13 along along IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 230 14 with with IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 230 15 two two CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 230 16 other other JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 230 17 time time NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 230 18 series serie NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 230 19 are be VBP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 230 20 used use VBN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 230 21 , , , cord-348636-qqcb85uk 230 22 thus thus RB cord-348636-qqcb85uk 230 23 improving improve VBG cord-348636-qqcb85uk 230 24 the the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 230 25 data datum NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 230 26 availability availability NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 230 27 . . . cord-348636-qqcb85uk 231 1 Moreover moreover RB cord-348636-qqcb85uk 231 2 , , , cord-348636-qqcb85uk 231 3 the the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 231 4 use use NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 231 5 of of IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 231 6 the the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 231 7 back back JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 231 8 - - HYPH cord-348636-qqcb85uk 231 9 projection projection NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 231 10 for for IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 231 11 rejection rejection NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 231 12 sampling sampling NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 231 13 purposes purpose NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 231 14 gives give VBZ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 231 15 the the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 231 16 model model NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 231 17 more more JJR cord-348636-qqcb85uk 231 18 detail detail NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 231 19 as as IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 231 20 this this DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 231 21 method method NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 231 22 has have VBZ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 231 23 been be VBN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 231 24 shown show VBN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 231 25 to to TO cord-348636-qqcb85uk 231 26 successfully successfully RB cord-348636-qqcb85uk 231 27 reconstruct reconstruct VB cord-348636-qqcb85uk 231 28 SARS SARS NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 231 29 epidemics epidemic NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 231 30 . . . cord-348636-qqcb85uk 232 1 An an DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 232 2 estimate estimate NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 232 3 for for IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 232 4 the the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 232 5 transmission transmission NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 232 6 parameter parameter NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 232 7 b b NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 232 8 was be VBD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 232 9 obtained obtain VBN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 232 10 as as IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 232 11 0.149 0.149 CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 232 12 with with IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 232 13 a a DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 232 14 posterior posterior JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 232 15 standard standard JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 232 16 deviation deviation NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 232 17 of of IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 232 18 0.003 0.003 CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 232 19 . . . cord-348636-qqcb85uk 233 1 This this DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 233 2 estimate estimate NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 233 3 is be VBZ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 233 4 consistent consistent JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 233 5 with with IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 233 6 a a DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 233 7 daily daily JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 233 8 infectivity infectivity NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 233 9 at at IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 233 10 the the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 233 11 beginning beginning NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 233 12 of of IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 233 13 the the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 233 14 epidemic epidemic NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 233 15 of of IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 233 16 0.15 0.15 CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 233 17 obtained obtain VBN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 233 18 by by IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 233 19 McBryde McBryde NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 233 20 et et NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 233 21 al al NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 233 22 . . . cord-348636-qqcb85uk 234 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-348636-qqcb85uk 234 2 2006 2006 CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 234 3 ) ) -RRB- cord-348636-qqcb85uk 234 4 . . . cord-348636-qqcb85uk 235 1 The the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 235 2 model model NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 235 3 predicts predict VBZ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 235 4 that that IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 235 5 the the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 235 6 effective effective JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 235 7 reproduction reproduction NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 235 8 number number NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 235 9 crosses cross VBZ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 235 10 the the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 235 11 threshold threshold NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 235 12 value value NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 235 13 of of IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 235 14 one one CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 235 15 , , , cord-348636-qqcb85uk 235 16 seven seven CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 235 17 days day NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 235 18 after after IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 235 19 control control NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 235 20 interventions intervention NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 235 21 were be VBD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 235 22 introduced introduce VBN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 235 23 . . . cord-348636-qqcb85uk 236 1 At at IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 236 2 the the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 236 3 end end NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 236 4 of of IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 236 5 the the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 236 6 epidemic epidemic NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 236 7 , , , cord-348636-qqcb85uk 236 8 the the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 236 9 effective effective JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 236 10 reproduction reproduction NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 236 11 number number NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 236 12 is be VBZ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 236 13 as as RB cord-348636-qqcb85uk 236 14 low low JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 236 15 as as IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 236 16 0.001 0.001 CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 236 17 suggesting suggest VBG cord-348636-qqcb85uk 236 18 that that IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 236 19 the the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 236 20 epidemic epidemic NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 236 21 was be VBD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 236 22 brought bring VBN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 236 23 under under IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 236 24 control control NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 236 25 by by IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 236 26 the the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 236 27 intervention intervention NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 236 28 measures measure NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 236 29 . . . cord-348636-qqcb85uk 237 1 A a DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 237 2 posterior posterior JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 237 3 predictive predictive JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 237 4 distribution distribution NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 237 5 of of IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 237 6 final final JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 237 7 sizes size NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 237 8 shown show VBN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 237 9 in in IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 237 10 Figure figure NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 237 11 5 5 CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 237 12 ( ( -LRB- cord-348636-qqcb85uk 237 13 b b NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 237 14 ) ) -RRB- cord-348636-qqcb85uk 237 15 does do VBZ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 237 16 not not RB cord-348636-qqcb85uk 237 17 indicate indicate VB cord-348636-qqcb85uk 237 18 any any DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 237 19 evidence evidence NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 237 20 of of IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 237 21 lack lack NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 237 22 of of IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 237 23 fit fit NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 237 24 ( ( -LRB- cord-348636-qqcb85uk 237 25 p p NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 237 26 - - HYPH cord-348636-qqcb85uk 237 27 value value NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 237 28 is be VBZ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 237 29 0.512 0.512 CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 237 30 ) ) -RRB- cord-348636-qqcb85uk 237 31 . . . cord-348636-qqcb85uk 238 1 The the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 238 2 fit fit NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 238 3 of of IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 238 4 the the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 238 5 model model NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 238 6 is be VBZ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 238 7 also also RB cord-348636-qqcb85uk 238 8 evident evident JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 238 9 from from IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 238 10 Figure figure NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 238 11 5(a 5(a CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 238 12 ) ) -RRB- cord-348636-qqcb85uk 239 1 where where WRB cord-348636-qqcb85uk 239 2 the the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 239 3 predicted predict VBN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 239 4 number number NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 239 5 of of IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 239 6 cases case NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 239 7 is be VBZ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 239 8 consistent consistent JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 239 9 with with IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 239 10 the the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 239 11 observed observed JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 239 12 cases case NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 239 13 . . . cord-348636-qqcb85uk 240 1 The the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 240 2 Bayes Bayes NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 240 3 factor factor NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 240 4 computed compute VBD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 240 5 following follow VBG cord-348636-qqcb85uk 240 6 the the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 240 7 method method NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 240 8 of of IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 240 9 Chib Chib NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 240 10 and and CC cord-348636-qqcb85uk 240 11 Jeliazkov Jeliazkov NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 240 12 ( ( -LRB- cord-348636-qqcb85uk 240 13 2001 2001 CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 240 14 ) ) -RRB- cord-348636-qqcb85uk 240 15 was be VBD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 240 16 used use VBN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 240 17 to to TO cord-348636-qqcb85uk 240 18 compare compare VB cord-348636-qqcb85uk 240 19 the the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 240 20 proposed propose VBN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 240 21 model model NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 240 22 with with IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 240 23 the the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 240 24 model model NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 240 25 whereby whereby WRB cord-348636-qqcb85uk 240 26 f f NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 240 27 ; ; : cord-348636-qqcb85uk 240 28 g g NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 240 29 þ þ NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 240 30 and and CC cord-348636-qqcb85uk 240 31 g g NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 240 32 À à NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 240 33 were be VBD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 240 34 assumed assume VBN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 240 35 to to TO cord-348636-qqcb85uk 240 36 follow follow VB cord-348636-qqcb85uk 240 37 a a DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 240 38 geometric geometric JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 240 39 distribution distribution NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 240 40 with with IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 240 41 the the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 240 42 same same JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 240 43 mean mean NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 240 44 as as IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 240 45 the the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 240 46 gamma gamma NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 240 47 distributions distribution NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 240 48 used use VBN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 240 49 here here RB cord-348636-qqcb85uk 240 50 . . . cord-348636-qqcb85uk 241 1 The the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 241 2 geometric geometric JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 241 3 distribution distribution NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 241 4 is be VBZ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 241 5 used use VBN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 241 6 here here RB cord-348636-qqcb85uk 241 7 as as IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 241 8 in in IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 241 9 Lekone Lekone NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 241 10 and and CC cord-348636-qqcb85uk 241 11 Finkenstådt Finkenstådt NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 241 12 ( ( -LRB- cord-348636-qqcb85uk 241 13 2006 2006 CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 241 14 ) ) -RRB- cord-348636-qqcb85uk 241 15 as as IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 241 16 a a DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 241 17 discrete discrete JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 241 18 approximation approximation NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 241 19 to to IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 241 20 the the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 241 21 exponential exponential JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 241 22 distribution distribution NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 241 23 . . . cord-348636-qqcb85uk 242 1 The the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 242 2 theoretical theoretical JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 242 3 details detail NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 242 4 of of IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 242 5 the the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 242 6 scheme scheme NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 242 7 used use VBN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 242 8 to to TO cord-348636-qqcb85uk 242 9 calculate calculate VB cord-348636-qqcb85uk 242 10 the the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 242 11 marginal marginal JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 242 12 likelihood likelihood NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 242 13 of of IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 242 14 each each DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 242 15 model model NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 242 16 can can MD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 242 17 be be VB cord-348636-qqcb85uk 242 18 found find VBN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 242 19 in in IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 242 20 Section section NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 242 21 2.3 2.3 CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 242 22 of of IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 242 23 Chib Chib NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 242 24 and and CC cord-348636-qqcb85uk 242 25 Jeliazkov Jeliazkov NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 242 26 ( ( -LRB- cord-348636-qqcb85uk 242 27 2001 2001 CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 242 28 ) ) -RRB- cord-348636-qqcb85uk 242 29 . . . cord-348636-qqcb85uk 243 1 A a DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 243 2 Bayes Bayes NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 243 3 factor factor NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 243 4 of of IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 243 5 5.23 5.23 CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 243 6 in in IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 243 7 favour favour NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 243 8 of of IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 243 9 the the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 243 10 model model NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 243 11 with with IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 243 12 gamma gamma NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 243 13 distributions distribution NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 243 14 was be VBD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 243 15 obtained obtain VBN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 243 16 . . . cord-348636-qqcb85uk 244 1 A a DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 244 2 simple simple JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 244 3 model model NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 244 4 that that WDT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 244 5 captures capture VBZ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 244 6 the the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 244 7 form form NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 244 8 of of IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 244 9 distributions distribution NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 244 10 of of IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 244 11 epidemiological epidemiological JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 244 12 determinants determinant NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 244 13 has have VBZ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 244 14 been be VBN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 244 15 introduced introduce VBN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 244 16 to to TO cord-348636-qqcb85uk 244 17 estimate estimate VB cord-348636-qqcb85uk 244 18 the the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 244 19 basic basic JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 244 20 reproduction reproduction NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 244 21 number number NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 244 22 and and CC cord-348636-qqcb85uk 244 23 to to TO cord-348636-qqcb85uk 244 24 assess assess VB cord-348636-qqcb85uk 244 25 the the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 244 26 effect effect NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 244 27 of of IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 244 28 control control NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 244 29 interventions intervention NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 244 30 introduced introduce VBN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 244 31 during during IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 244 32 the the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 244 33 course course NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 244 34 of of IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 244 35 the the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 244 36 epidemic epidemic NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 244 37 . . . cord-348636-qqcb85uk 245 1 MCMC MCMC NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 245 2 methods method NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 245 3 were be VBD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 245 4 then then RB cord-348636-qqcb85uk 245 5 used use VBN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 245 6 to to TO cord-348636-qqcb85uk 245 7 carry carry VB cord-348636-qqcb85uk 245 8 out out RP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 245 9 Bayesian bayesian JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 245 10 inference inference NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 245 11 allowing allow VBG cord-348636-qqcb85uk 245 12 for for IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 245 13 integration integration NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 245 14 over over IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 245 15 latent latent JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 245 16 variables variable NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 245 17 . . . cord-348636-qqcb85uk 246 1 The the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 246 2 performance performance NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 246 3 of of IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 246 4 the the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 246 5 inference inference NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 246 6 method method NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 246 7 was be VBD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 246 8 demonstrated demonstrate VBN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 246 9 by by IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 246 10 applying apply VBG cord-348636-qqcb85uk 246 11 it -PRON- PRP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 246 12 to to IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 246 13 simulated simulated JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 246 14 data datum NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 246 15 and and CC cord-348636-qqcb85uk 246 16 to to TO cord-348636-qqcb85uk 246 17 data datum NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 246 18 arising arise VBG cord-348636-qqcb85uk 246 19 from from IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 246 20 an an DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 246 21 outbreak outbreak NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 246 22 of of IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 246 23 SARS SARS NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 246 24 in in IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 246 25 Hong Hong NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 246 26 Kong Kong NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 246 27 in in IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 246 28 2003 2003 CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 246 29 . . . cord-348636-qqcb85uk 247 1 Results result NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 247 2 obtained obtain VBN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 247 3 for for IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 247 4 the the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 247 5 basic basic JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 247 6 reproduction reproduction NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 247 7 number number NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 247 8 from from IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 247 9 the the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 247 10 SARS SARS NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 247 11 data datum NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 247 12 are be VBP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 247 13 slightly slightly RB cord-348636-qqcb85uk 247 14 larger large JJR cord-348636-qqcb85uk 247 15 than than IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 247 16 those those DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 247 17 obtained obtain VBN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 247 18 by by IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 247 19 Riley Riley NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 247 20 et et NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 247 21 al al NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 247 22 . . . cord-348636-qqcb85uk 248 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-348636-qqcb85uk 248 2 2003 2003 CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 248 3 ) ) -RRB- cord-348636-qqcb85uk 248 4 and and CC cord-348636-qqcb85uk 248 5 Lipsitch Lipsitch NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 248 6 et et NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 248 7 al al NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 248 8 . . . cord-348636-qqcb85uk 249 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-348636-qqcb85uk 249 2 2003 2003 CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 249 3 ) ) -RRB- cord-348636-qqcb85uk 250 1 but but CC cord-348636-qqcb85uk 250 2 in in IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 250 3 agreement agreement NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 250 4 with with IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 250 5 those those DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 250 6 obtained obtain VBN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 250 7 by by IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 250 8 Wallinga Wallinga NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 250 9 and and CC cord-348636-qqcb85uk 250 10 Tenius Tenius NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 250 11 ( ( -LRB- cord-348636-qqcb85uk 250 12 2004 2004 CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 250 13 ) ) -RRB- cord-348636-qqcb85uk 250 14 . . . cord-348636-qqcb85uk 251 1 The the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 251 2 model model NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 251 3 also also RB cord-348636-qqcb85uk 251 4 predicts predict VBZ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 251 5 that that IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 251 6 the the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 251 7 control control NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 251 8 measures measure NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 251 9 introduced introduce VBN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 251 10 during during IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 251 11 the the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 251 12 course course NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 251 13 of of IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 251 14 the the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 251 15 epidemic epidemic NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 251 16 were be VBD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 251 17 successful successful JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 251 18 in in IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 251 19 bringing bring VBG cord-348636-qqcb85uk 251 20 it -PRON- PRP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 251 21 under under IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 251 22 control control NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 251 23 . . . cord-348636-qqcb85uk 252 1 This this DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 252 2 was be VBD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 252 3 demonstrated demonstrate VBN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 252 4 by by IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 252 5 the the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 252 6 effective effective JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 252 7 reproduction reproduction NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 252 8 number number NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 252 9 crossing cross VBG cord-348636-qqcb85uk 252 10 the the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 252 11 threshold threshold NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 252 12 value value NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 252 13 of of IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 252 14 one one CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 252 15 before before IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 252 16 the the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 252 17 end end NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 252 18 of of IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 252 19 the the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 252 20 epidemic epidemic NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 252 21 . . . cord-348636-qqcb85uk 253 1 Whilst whilst IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 253 2 it -PRON- PRP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 253 3 is be VBZ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 253 4 appreciated appreciate VBN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 253 5 that that IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 253 6 epidemic epidemic NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 253 7 models model NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 253 8 for for IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 253 9 SARS SARS NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 253 10 should should MD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 253 11 incorporate incorporate VB cord-348636-qqcb85uk 253 12 the the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 253 13 heterogeneity heterogeneity NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 253 14 due due IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 253 15 to to IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 253 16 super super JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 253 17 - - JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 253 18 spread spread JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 253 19 events event NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 253 20 , , , cord-348636-qqcb85uk 253 21 it -PRON- PRP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 253 22 would would MD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 253 23 be be VB cord-348636-qqcb85uk 253 24 difficult difficult JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 253 25 to to TO cord-348636-qqcb85uk 253 26 infer infer VB cord-348636-qqcb85uk 253 27 from from IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 253 28 such such JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 253 29 models model NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 253 30 since since IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 253 31 they -PRON- PRP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 253 32 would would MD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 253 33 require require VB cord-348636-qqcb85uk 253 34 detailed detailed JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 253 35 data datum NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 253 36 which which WDT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 253 37 is be VBZ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 253 38 not not RB cord-348636-qqcb85uk 253 39 readily readily RB cord-348636-qqcb85uk 253 40 available available JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 253 41 in in IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 253 42 practice practice NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 253 43 . . . cord-348636-qqcb85uk 254 1 In in IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 254 2 the the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 254 3 case case NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 254 4 that that IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 254 5 such such JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 254 6 data datum NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 254 7 are be VBP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 254 8 available available JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 254 9 , , , cord-348636-qqcb85uk 254 10 modelling model VBG cord-348636-qqcb85uk 254 11 heterogeneity heterogeneity NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 254 12 by by IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 254 13 incorporating incorporate VBG cord-348636-qqcb85uk 254 14 it -PRON- PRP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 254 15 into into IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 254 16 the the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 254 17 form form NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 254 18 of of IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 254 19 bðtÞ bðtþ CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 254 20 or or CC cord-348636-qqcb85uk 254 21 by by IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 254 22 using use VBG cord-348636-qqcb85uk 254 23 a a DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 254 24 meta meta JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 254 25 - - HYPH cord-348636-qqcb85uk 254 26 population population NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 254 27 model model NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 254 28 as as IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 254 29 in in IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 254 30 Riley Riley NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 254 31 et et NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 254 32 al al NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 254 33 . . . cord-348636-qqcb85uk 255 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-348636-qqcb85uk 255 2 2003 2003 CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 255 3 ) ) -RRB- cord-348636-qqcb85uk 255 4 will will MD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 255 5 be be VB cord-348636-qqcb85uk 255 6 valuable valuable JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 255 7 . . . cord-348636-qqcb85uk 256 1 The the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 256 2 model model NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 256 3 used use VBN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 256 4 here here RB cord-348636-qqcb85uk 256 5 uses use VBZ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 256 6 three three CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 256 7 time time NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 256 8 series series NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 256 9 of of IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 256 10 data datum NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 256 11 that that WDT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 256 12 can can MD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 256 13 read- read- XX cord-348636-qqcb85uk 256 14 ily ily UH cord-348636-qqcb85uk 256 15 be be VB cord-348636-qqcb85uk 256 16 obtained obtain VBN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 256 17 by by IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 256 18 health health NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 256 19 practitioners practitioner NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 256 20 in in IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 256 21 case case NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 256 22 of of IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 256 23 an an DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 256 24 outbreak outbreak NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 256 25 and and CC cord-348636-qqcb85uk 256 26 as as IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 256 27 such such JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 256 28 is be VBZ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 256 29 easy easy JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 256 30 to to TO cord-348636-qqcb85uk 256 31 implement implement VB cord-348636-qqcb85uk 256 32 . . . cord-348636-qqcb85uk 257 1 However however RB cord-348636-qqcb85uk 257 2 , , , cord-348636-qqcb85uk 257 3 better well JJR cord-348636-qqcb85uk 257 4 modelling model VBG cord-348636-qqcb85uk 257 5 ways way NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 257 6 of of IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 257 7 quantifying quantify VBG cord-348636-qqcb85uk 257 8 control control NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 257 9 interventions intervention NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 257 10 are be VBP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 257 11 desirable desirable JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 257 12 . . . cord-348636-qqcb85uk 258 1 The the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 258 2 back back JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 258 3 - - HYPH cord-348636-qqcb85uk 258 4 projection projection NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 258 5 method method NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 258 6 was be VBD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 258 7 in in IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 258 8 this this DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 258 9 article article NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 258 10 used use VBD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 258 11 solely solely RB cord-348636-qqcb85uk 258 12 to to TO cord-348636-qqcb85uk 258 13 construct construct VB cord-348636-qqcb85uk 258 14 an an DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 258 15 efficient efficient JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 258 16 proposal proposal NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 258 17 for for IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 258 18 the the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 258 19 Metropolis Metropolis NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 258 20 - - HYPH cord-348636-qqcb85uk 258 21 Hastings Hastings NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 258 22 algorithm algorithm NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 258 23 in in IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 258 24 order order NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 258 25 to to TO cord-348636-qqcb85uk 258 26 impute impute VB cord-348636-qqcb85uk 258 27 the the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 258 28 unobserved unobserved JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 258 29 process process NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 258 30 fBðtÞg fBðtÞg '' cord-348636-qqcb85uk 258 31 . . . cord-348636-qqcb85uk 259 1 This this DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 259 2 was be VBD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 259 3 motivated motivate VBN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 259 4 by by IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 259 5 the the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 259 6 fact fact NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 259 7 that that IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 259 8 the the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 259 9 method method NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 259 10 reconstructed reconstruct VBD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 259 11 the the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 259 12 SARS SARS NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 259 13 epidemic epidemic NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 259 14 quite quite RB cord-348636-qqcb85uk 259 15 well well RB cord-348636-qqcb85uk 259 16 as as IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 259 17 was be VBD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 259 18 shown show VBN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 259 19 by by IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 259 20 Chau Chau NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 259 21 and and CC cord-348636-qqcb85uk 259 22 Yip Yip NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 259 23 ( ( -LRB- cord-348636-qqcb85uk 259 24 2003a 2003a CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 259 25 , , , cord-348636-qqcb85uk 259 26 b b LS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 259 27 ) ) -RRB- cord-348636-qqcb85uk 259 28 . . . cord-348636-qqcb85uk 260 1 The the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 260 2 MCMC MCMC NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 260 3 method method NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 260 4 can can MD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 260 5 be be VB cord-348636-qqcb85uk 260 6 modified modify VBN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 260 7 to to TO cord-348636-qqcb85uk 260 8 incorporate incorporate VB cord-348636-qqcb85uk 260 9 variability variability NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 260 10 on on IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 260 11 the the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 260 12 parameters parameter NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 260 13 of of IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 260 14 the the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 260 15 gamma gamma NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 260 16 distributions distribution NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 260 17 used use VBN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 260 18 . . . cord-348636-qqcb85uk 261 1 These these DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 261 2 are be VBP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 261 3 assumed assume VBN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 261 4 to to TO cord-348636-qqcb85uk 261 5 be be VB cord-348636-qqcb85uk 261 6 fixed fix VBN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 261 7 in in IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 261 8 this this DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 261 9 paper paper NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 261 10 , , , cord-348636-qqcb85uk 261 11 an an DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 261 12 assumption assumption NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 261 13 that that WDT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 261 14 might may MD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 261 15 not not RB cord-348636-qqcb85uk 261 16 be be VB cord-348636-qqcb85uk 261 17 realistic realistic JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 261 18 as as IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 261 19 these these DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 261 20 are be VBP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 261 21 observed observe VBN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 261 22 with with IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 261 23 error error NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 261 24 in in IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 261 25 real real JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 261 26 life life NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 261 27 situations situation NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 261 28 . . . cord-348636-qqcb85uk 262 1 Computation computation NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 262 2 of of IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 262 3 the the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 262 4 Bayes Bayes NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 262 5 factor factor NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 262 6 can can MD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 262 7 be be VB cord-348636-qqcb85uk 262 8 quite quite RB cord-348636-qqcb85uk 262 9 difficult difficult JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 262 10 to to TO cord-348636-qqcb85uk 262 11 compute compute VB cord-348636-qqcb85uk 262 12 especially especially RB cord-348636-qqcb85uk 262 13 in in IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 262 14 models model NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 262 15 with with IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 262 16 high high JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 262 17 number number NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 262 18 of of IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 262 19 parameters parameter NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 262 20 ( ( -LRB- cord-348636-qqcb85uk 262 21 Chib Chib NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 262 22 and and CC cord-348636-qqcb85uk 262 23 Jeliazkov Jeliazkov NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 262 24 , , , cord-348636-qqcb85uk 262 25 2001 2001 CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 262 26 ) ) -RRB- cord-348636-qqcb85uk 262 27 . . . cord-348636-qqcb85uk 263 1 However however RB cord-348636-qqcb85uk 263 2 , , , cord-348636-qqcb85uk 263 3 this this DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 263 4 difficulty difficulty NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 263 5 was be VBD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 263 6 not not RB cord-348636-qqcb85uk 263 7 encountered encounter VBN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 263 8 in in IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 263 9 this this DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 263 10 article article NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 263 11 as as IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 263 12 only only RB cord-348636-qqcb85uk 263 13 two two CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 263 14 parameters parameter NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 263 15 b b NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 263 16 and and CC cord-348636-qqcb85uk 263 17 q q NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 263 18 were be VBD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 263 19 of of IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 263 20 interest interest NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 263 21 . . . cord-348636-qqcb85uk 264 1 In in IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 264 2 the the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 264 3 case case NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 264 4 that that IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 264 5 a a DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 264 6 variation variation NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 264 7 of of IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 264 8 the the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 264 9 model model NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 264 10 proposed propose VBN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 264 11 here here RB cord-348636-qqcb85uk 264 12 leads lead VBZ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 264 13 to to IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 264 14 a a DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 264 15 high high JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 264 16 dimensional dimensional JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 264 17 parameter parameter NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 264 18 vector vector NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 264 19 , , , cord-348636-qqcb85uk 264 20 then then RB cord-348636-qqcb85uk 264 21 blocking block VBG cord-348636-qqcb85uk 264 22 methods method NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 264 23 as as IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 264 24 suggested suggest VBN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 264 25 by by IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 264 26 Chib Chib NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 264 27 and and CC cord-348636-qqcb85uk 264 28 Jeliazkov Jeliazkov NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 264 29 ( ( -LRB- cord-348636-qqcb85uk 264 30 2001 2001 CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 264 31 ) ) -RRB- cord-348636-qqcb85uk 264 32 can can MD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 264 33 be be VB cord-348636-qqcb85uk 264 34 used use VBN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 264 35 . . . cord-348636-qqcb85uk 265 1 The the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 265 2 modelling modelling NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 265 3 approach approach NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 265 4 proposed propose VBN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 265 5 in in IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 265 6 this this DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 265 7 article article NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 265 8 is be VBZ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 265 9 easy easy JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 265 10 to to TO cord-348636-qqcb85uk 265 11 implement implement VB cord-348636-qqcb85uk 265 12 and and CC cord-348636-qqcb85uk 265 13 requires require VBZ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 265 14 data datum NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 265 15 that that WDT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 265 16 is be VBZ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 265 17 not not RB cord-348636-qqcb85uk 265 18 difficult difficult JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 265 19 to to TO cord-348636-qqcb85uk 265 20 collect collect VB cord-348636-qqcb85uk 265 21 and and CC cord-348636-qqcb85uk 265 22 hence hence RB cord-348636-qqcb85uk 265 23 can can MD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 265 24 be be VB cord-348636-qqcb85uk 265 25 applied apply VBN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 265 26 to to IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 265 27 data data NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 265 28 sets set NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 265 29 arising arise VBG cord-348636-qqcb85uk 265 30 from from IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 265 31 diseases disease NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 265 32 with with IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 265 33 similar similar JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 265 34 dynamics dynamic NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 265 35 to to IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 265 36 SARS SARS NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 265 37 . . . cord-348636-qqcb85uk 266 1 Implementation implementation NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 266 2 of of IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 266 3 the the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 266 4 methods method NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 266 5 described describe VBN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 266 6 in in IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 266 7 this this DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 266 8 paper paper NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 266 9 was be VBD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 266 10 done do VBN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 266 11 with with IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 266 12 a a DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 266 13 modern modern JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 266 14 standard standard JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 266 15 computer computer NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 266 16 using use VBG cord-348636-qqcb85uk 266 17 the the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 266 18 OX OX NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 266 19 language language NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 266 20 of of IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 266 21 Doornik Doornik NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 266 22 ( ( -LRB- cord-348636-qqcb85uk 266 23 1999 1999 CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 266 24 ) ) -RRB- cord-348636-qqcb85uk 266 25 . . . cord-348636-qqcb85uk 267 1 Computation computation NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 267 2 time time NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 267 3 was be VBD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 267 4 less less JJR cord-348636-qqcb85uk 267 5 than than IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 267 6 six six CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 267 7 hours hour NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 267 8 for for IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 267 9 each each DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 267 10 of of IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 267 11 the the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 267 12 Markov Markov NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 267 13 chain chain NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 267 14 runs run VBZ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 267 15 . . . cord-348636-qqcb85uk 268 1 A a DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 268 2 method method NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 268 3 of of IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 268 4 non non JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 268 5 - - JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 268 6 parametric parametric JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 268 7 back back NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 268 8 - - HYPH cord-348636-qqcb85uk 268 9 projection projection NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 268 10 and and CC cord-348636-qqcb85uk 268 11 its -PRON- PRP$ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 268 12 application application NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 268 13 to to IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 268 14 AIDS AIDS NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 268 15 data datum NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 269 1 Dependent dependent JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 269 2 HIV HIV NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 269 3 incidences incidence NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 269 4 in in IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 269 5 back back NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 269 6 - - HYPH cord-348636-qqcb85uk 269 7 projection projection NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 269 8 of of IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 269 9 AIDS AIDS NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 269 10 incidence incidence NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 269 11 data datum NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 269 12 Minimum minimum NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 269 13 size size NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 269 14 of of IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 269 15 the the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 269 16 acquired acquire VBN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 269 17 immunodeficiency immunodeficiency NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 269 18 syndrome syndrome NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 269 19 ( ( -LRB- cord-348636-qqcb85uk 269 20 AIDS AIDS NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 269 21 ) ) -RRB- cord-348636-qqcb85uk 269 22 epidemic epidemic NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 269 23 in in IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 269 24 the the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 269 25 United United NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 269 26 States States NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 269 27 Monitoring monitor VBG cord-348636-qqcb85uk 269 28 the the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 269 29 severe severe JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 269 30 acute acute JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 269 31 respiratory respiratory JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 269 32 syndrome syndrome NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 269 33 epidemic epidemic NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 269 34 and and CC cord-348636-qqcb85uk 269 35 assessing assess VBG cord-348636-qqcb85uk 269 36 effectiveness effectiveness NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 269 37 of of IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 269 38 interventions intervention NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 269 39 in in IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 269 40 Hong Hong NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 269 41 Kong Kong NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 269 42 Special Special NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 269 43 Administrative Administrative NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 269 44 Region Region NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 269 45 Modelling Modelling NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 269 46 the the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 269 47 severe severe JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 269 48 acute acute JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 269 49 respiratory respiratory JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 269 50 syndrome syndrome NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 270 1 Marginal marginal JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 270 2 likelihood likelihood NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 270 3 from from IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 270 4 the the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 270 5 Metropolis Metropolis NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 270 6 - - HYPH cord-348636-qqcb85uk 270 7 Hastings Hastings NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 270 8 output output NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 270 9 SARS SARS NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 270 10 outbreaks outbreak NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 270 11 in in IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 270 12 Ontario Ontario NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 270 13 , , , cord-348636-qqcb85uk 270 14 Hong Hong NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 270 15 Kong Kong NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 270 16 and and CC cord-348636-qqcb85uk 270 17 Singapore Singapore NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 270 18 : : : cord-348636-qqcb85uk 270 19 the the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 270 20 role role NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 270 21 of of IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 270 22 diagnosis diagnosis NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 270 23 and and CC cord-348636-qqcb85uk 270 24 isolation isolation NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 270 25 as as IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 270 26 a a DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 270 27 control control NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 270 28 mechanism mechanism NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 270 29 The the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 270 30 basic basic JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 270 31 reproductive reproductive JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 270 32 number number NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 270 33 of of IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 270 34 Ebola Ebola NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 270 35 and and CC cord-348636-qqcb85uk 270 36 the the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 270 37 effects effect NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 270 38 of of IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 270 39 public public JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 270 40 health health NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 270 41 measures measure NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 270 42 : : : cord-348636-qqcb85uk 270 43 The the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 270 44 cases case NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 270 45 of of IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 270 46 Congo Congo NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 270 47 and and CC cord-348636-qqcb85uk 270 48 Uganda Uganda NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 270 49 On on IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 270 50 the the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 270 51 definition definition NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 270 52 and and CC cord-348636-qqcb85uk 270 53 the the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 270 54 computation computation NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 270 55 of of IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 270 56 the the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 270 57 basic basic JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 270 58 reproduction reproduction NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 270 59 ratio ratio NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 270 60 R r NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 270 61 0 0 CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 270 62 in in IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 270 63 models model NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 270 64 for for IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 270 65 infectious infectious JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 270 66 diseases disease NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 270 67 in in IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 270 68 heterogeneous heterogeneous JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 270 69 populations population NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 270 70 Epidemiological epidemiological JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 270 71 determinants determinant NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 270 72 of of IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 270 73 spread spread NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 270 74 of of IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 270 75 causal causal JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 270 76 agent agent NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 270 77 of of IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 270 78 severe severe JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 270 79 acute acute JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 270 80 respiratory respiratory JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 270 81 syndrome syndrome NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 270 82 in in IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 270 83 Hong Hong NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 270 84 Kong Kong NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 270 85 Object object NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 270 86 - - HYPH cord-348636-qqcb85uk 270 87 orientated orientate VBN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 270 88 Matrix Matrix NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 270 89 Programming Programming NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 270 90 using use VBG cord-348636-qqcb85uk 270 91 Ox Ox NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 270 92 version version NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 270 93 2.1 2.1 CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 270 94 . . . cord-348636-qqcb85uk 271 1 Timberlake Timberlake NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 271 2 Consultants Consultants NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 271 3 Limited Limited NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 271 4 Posterior Posterior NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 271 5 predictive predictive JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 271 6 assessment assessment NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 271 7 of of IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 271 8 model model NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 271 9 fitness fitness NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 271 10 via via IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 271 11 realized realize VBN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 271 12 discrepancies discrepancy NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 272 1 Statistical statistical JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 272 2 inference inference NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 272 3 in in IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 272 4 a a DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 272 5 stochastic stochastic JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 272 6 epidemic epidemic NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 272 7 SEIR seir NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 272 8 model model NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 272 9 with with IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 272 10 control control NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 272 11 intervention intervention NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 272 12 : : : cord-348636-qqcb85uk 272 13 Ebola Ebola NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 272 14 as as IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 272 15 a a DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 272 16 case case NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 272 17 study study NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 272 18 The the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 272 19 epidemiology epidemiology NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 272 20 of of IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 272 21 severe severe JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 272 22 acute acute JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 272 23 respiratory respiratory JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 272 24 syndrome syndrome NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 272 25 in in IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 272 26 the the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 272 27 2003 2003 CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 272 28 Hong Hong NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 272 29 Kong Kong NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 272 30 epidemic epidemic NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 272 31 : : : cord-348636-qqcb85uk 273 1 an an DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 273 2 analysis analysis NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 273 3 of of IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 273 4 all all DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 273 5 1755 1755 CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 273 6 patients patient NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 273 7 Transmission transmission NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 273 8 dynamics dynamic NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 273 9 and and CC cord-348636-qqcb85uk 273 10 control control NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 273 11 of of IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 273 12 severe severe JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 273 13 acute acute JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 273 14 respiratory respiratory JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 273 15 syndrome syndrome NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 273 16 Bayesian bayesian JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 273 17 modelling modelling NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 273 18 of of IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 273 19 an an DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 273 20 epidemic epidemic NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 273 21 of of IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 273 22 severe severe JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 273 23 acute acute JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 273 24 respiratory respiratory JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 273 25 syndrome syndrome NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 273 26 Transmission transmission NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 273 27 dynamics dynamic NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 273 28 of of IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 273 29 the the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 273 30 aetiological aetiological JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 273 31 agent agent NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 273 32 of of IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 273 33 severe severe JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 273 34 acute acute JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 273 35 respiratory respiratory JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 273 36 syndrome syndrome NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 273 37 ( ( -LRB- cord-348636-qqcb85uk 273 38 SARS SARS NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 273 39 ) ) -RRB- cord-348636-qqcb85uk 273 40 in in IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 273 41 Hong Hong NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 273 42 Kong Kong NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 273 43 : : : cord-348636-qqcb85uk 274 1 the the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 274 2 impact impact NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 274 3 of of IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 274 4 public public JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 274 5 health health NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 274 6 interventions intervention NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 274 7 Different different JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 274 8 epidemic epidemic NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 274 9 curves curve NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 274 10 for for IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 274 11 severe severe JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 274 12 acute acute JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 274 13 respiratory respiratory JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 274 14 syndrome syndrome NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 274 15 reveal reveal VBP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 274 16 similar similar JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 274 17 impacts impact NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 274 18 of of IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 274 19 control control NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 274 20 measures measure NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 275 1 Acknowledgements acknowledgement NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 276 1 The the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 276 2 author author NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 276 3 would would MD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 276 4 like like VB cord-348636-qqcb85uk 276 5 to to TO cord-348636-qqcb85uk 276 6 thank thank VB cord-348636-qqcb85uk 276 7 the the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 276 8 University University NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 276 9 of of IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 276 10 Warwick Warwick NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 276 11 ( ( -LRB- cord-348636-qqcb85uk 276 12 Warwick Warwick NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 276 13 postgraduate postgraduate JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 276 14 fellowship fellowship NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 276 15 ) ) -RRB- cord-348636-qqcb85uk 276 16 , , , cord-348636-qqcb85uk 276 17 the the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 276 18 United United NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 276 19 Kingdom Kingdom NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 276 20 's 's POS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 276 21 national national JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 276 22 Overseas Overseas NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 276 23 Research Research NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 276 24 Scheme Scheme NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 276 25 ( ( -LRB- cord-348636-qqcb85uk 276 26 ORS ORS NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 276 27 ) ) -RRB- cord-348636-qqcb85uk 276 28 and and CC cord-348636-qqcb85uk 276 29 University University NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 276 30 of of IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 276 31 Botswana Botswana NNP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 276 32 for for IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 276 33 jointly jointly RB cord-348636-qqcb85uk 276 34 funding fund VBG cord-348636-qqcb85uk 276 35 this this DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 276 36 research research NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 276 37 . . . cord-348636-qqcb85uk 277 1 The the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 277 2 manuscript manuscript NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 277 3 benefited benefit VBD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 277 4 quite quite PDT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 277 5 a a DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 277 6 lot lot NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 277 7 from from IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 277 8 reports report NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 277 9 by by IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 277 10 two two CD cord-348636-qqcb85uk 277 11 anonymous anonymous JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 277 12 reviewers reviewer NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 277 13 and and CC cord-348636-qqcb85uk 277 14 an an DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 277 15 associate associate JJ cord-348636-qqcb85uk 277 16 editor editor NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 277 17 . . . cord-348636-qqcb85uk 278 1 The the DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 278 2 authors author NNS cord-348636-qqcb85uk 278 3 have have VBP cord-348636-qqcb85uk 278 4 declared declare VBN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 278 5 no no DT cord-348636-qqcb85uk 278 6 conflict conflict NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 278 7 of of IN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 278 8 interest interest NN cord-348636-qqcb85uk 278 9 . . .