id	author	title	date	pages	extension	mime	words	sentences	flesch	summary	cache	txt
cord-254688-1poiheen	De Brouwer, E.	Can herd immunity be achieved without breaking ICUs?	2020-05-27		.txt	text/plain	2574	130	59	A key aspect of the current COVID-19 pandemic has been the rapid overload of Intensive Care Units (ICUs) in countries and regions where the epidemic was not quickly controlled [1, 2] because many patients infected with SARS-CoV-2 develop Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome (ARDS) and need respiratory support [1] . Assuming R 0 between 2 and 3, a COVID ICU capacity between 15 and 30 beds per 100,000 inhabitants (or between 49,000 and 98,000 beds), an average ICU stay duration between 10 and 15 days, and a percentage of ICU admission following SARS-CoV-2 infection in the general population between 0.7% and 1.5%, we obtain a time to herd immunity ranging between 5 and 18 months. By contrast, taking the case of the United Kingdom with a baseline capacity of 6.6 beds per 100,000 inhabitants, assuming a long-term COVID ICU bed capacity between 5 and 10 beds per 100,000 inhabitants, and keeping all the other parameters the same as for the US scenarios, the range for the time to immunity would be between 16 and 55 months.	./cache/cord-254688-1poiheen.txt	./txt/cord-254688-1poiheen.txt